Selecting and applying modelling tools to evaluate forest management strategies in the context of climate change
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This presentation was delivered at the third Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016, in Clark Freeport Zone, Philippines. The five sub-thematic streams at APFW 2016 included: Pathways to prosperity: Future trade and markets Tackling climate change: challenges and opportunities Serving society: forestry and people New institutions, new governance Our green future: green investment and growing our natural assets
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Selecting and applying modelling tools to evaluate forest management strategies in the context of climate change
- 1. Selecting and applying modelling tools to evaluate forest management strategies in the context of climate change. 1 Brad Seely, PhD Dept. of Forest Resources Management University of British Columbia
- 2. Role of climate in regulating forest productivity 2 Boisvenue and Running (2006) Glob Change Biol
- 3. How will climate change influence the growth and development of forest ecosystems? 3
- 4. Warming climate will likely increase growing season length in boreal, temperate and even some sub-tropical forest types 4 • Earlier springs • Warmer soils in early growing season with increased microbial and root activity • Later arrival of cool temperatures and frost • Climate models predict these trends will continue • Less important in SE Asia Zeng, et al. (2011) Environ Res Let Assessment of growing season length based upon satellite imagery 1982-2008
- 5. Climate change may be altering the frequency and intensity of ENSO events - The 1997-98 event was the likely the largest in the last 300 years - The 2015-16 event has equaled, if not exceeded the 97-98 event - Dramatic impact on rainfall patterns in the Monsoon climate system of SE Asia
- 6. 6 El Nino related drought can have significant impacts on mortality and growth in SE Asian Forests Teak growth and mortality in Myanmar Wide spread mortality in moisture sensitive Dipterocarps and other key tropical species - Depressed growth rates - Increased mortality (D’Arrigo et al. 2011) - Significant understory mortality in Sabah region during the 97-98 drought (Ligenfelder and Newberry 2009)
- 7. 7 What are the long-term implications of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations? Peters et al. (2013) Nature Climate Change GlobalCO2emissions(PgCyr-1)
- 8. Medlyn et al. (2011) WIREs Clim Change 8 What are the long-term implications of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations? CO2 fertilization effect? The Aspen FACE experiment near Rhinelander, Wisconsin Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) project
- 9. 9 What are the long-term implications of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations? Effect of increased CO2 on water use efficiency Franks et al. (2013) New Phytol
- 10. How can we cope with all of this complexity? 10 • Lengthening growing seasons • Increased drought and heat stress & associated mortality • Increased activity of biological disturbance agents • Effects of increased atm CO2 concentrations • CO2 fertilization? • Increased water use efficiency • Effects of increased temperature on organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling Summary of Key Factors Forest Ecosystem Models can be a useful tool for evaluating long-term impacts and adaptation alternatives But….
- 11. Adapted from Medlyn et al. (2011) WIREs Clim Change Type Spatial Scale Data requirements Species Change? Example Models Management Simulation? Process-based stand models (complex) Forest stand high no Gday CABALA Ecosys PnET Very limited to Limited Process-based stand models (simplified) Forest stand to region Low to medium no TRIPLEX FORECAST Climate 3PG Limited to Extensive Hybrid Models Forest stand to region Low no MELA FVS-BGC FULLCAM Limited to Extensive Terrestrial biogeochemical models Regions to global medium no BIOME-BGC TEM HRBM Very limited Gap Models Patches to regions Medium to high Yes SIMA FORSKA FORCLIM Limited Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) Regions to global Medium to high Yes LPJ CLM-DGVM Orchidae SDVGM Very limited How do I know what model to use???
- 12. What issues / questions do you wish to explore? Key Factors Model Attributes Growing season Temperature/moisture limitations on growth Drought risk Strong water balance module Atm CO2 impacts on water use efficiency Simulation of drought-related mortality Soil fertility Feedbacks on nutrient cycling Large areas Scalable with linkage to spatial data Species diversity Species loss or replacement How might climate change influence regional forest productivity?
- 13. What issues/ questions do you want explore? Key Factors Model Attributes NPP Changes in growing season length Water stress impacts on NPP Impacts of changing atm CO2 on NPP Litter and Soil C impacts Feedbacks on DOM decomposition rates Mortality rates Drought related mortality How might climate change influence ecosystem carbon balance?
- 14. What issues/ questions do you want explore? Key Factors Model Considerations Maintenance of ecosystem services Representation of key indicators Management options Species change, rotation length, harvesting systems Forest Health Water stress condition Drought related mortality Evaluation of the efficacy of alternative adaptation strategies
- 15. Adapted from Medlyn et al. (2011) WIREs Clim Change Type Spatial Scale Data requirements Species Change? Example Models Management Simulation? Process-based stand models (complex) Forest stand high no Gday CABALA Ecosys PnET Very limited to Limited Process-based stand models (simplified) Forest stand to region Low to medium no TRIPLEX FORECAST Climate 3PG Limited to Extensive Hybrid Models Forest stand to region Low no MELA FVS-BGC FULLCAM Limited to Extensive Terrestrial biogeochemical models Regions to global medium no BIOME-BGC TEM HRBM Very limited Gap Models Patches to regions Medium to high Yes SIMA FORSKA FORCLIM Limited Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) Regions to global Medium to high Yes LPJ CLM-DGVM Orchidae SDVGM Very limited How do I know what model to use???
- 16. Issues with respect to model application 1. Data Availability • Calibration data • Driving data • Validation data 2. Representation of climate change • Which GCMs and Emission scenarios (ES)? • How to handle downscaling (spatial and temporal) 3. How to represent uncertainty • Selection of multiple combinations of GCMs and ESs • Increasing climate variation • Frequency of extreme events • Issues related to phenology
- 17. Thank you
- 18. 18 How might global warming influence organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling? Kirschbaum (1995) Soil Biol Biochem The effect of increasing temperature on decomposition rates is greater in colder climates
- 19. 19 What are the long-term implications of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations? Effect of increased CO2 on water use efficiency Long et al. 2006 – Soybean FACE experiment - Less evaporative cooling in elevated CO2 plots
- 20. 20 How might global warming influence organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling? Soil warming experiment at the Harvard forest - Heated 5 °C above ambient The effect of increasing temperature on decomposition rates is greater in colder climates
- 21. 21 How might global warming influence organic matter decomposition and nutrient cycling? The effect of increasing temperature on decomposition rates is greater in colder climates Soil warming experiment at the Harvard forest - Heated 5 °C above ambient
- 22. Maybe… but not likely in many parts of the world 22 There are many other factors that must be taken into account • Changing precipitation patterns (drought) and heat stress have already led to increased tree mortality in many parts of the world Allen et al. (2010) For Ecol Manage
- 23. 23 Water stress can reduce tree resistance to biotic disturbance agents Oak jewel beetle has spread into northern Europe Agrilus (Anambus) biguttatus Armillaria root rots have become more prevalent in many regions
- 24. 24 Climate change has often led to increased activity of biotic disturbance agents Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) has killed more than 18 million ha of lodgepole pine forest in British Columbia in the last 15 years
Editor's Notes
- Climate is the most important factor regulating forest productivity at the global scale. It can be represented as three core components: temperature, water, sunlight Forest productivity in different parts of the globe is limited by different factors
- The climate is changing at an unprecedented rate and is expected to continue for some time. One of the most pressing questions is: How…
- Zeng et al. examined a 26-yr time series of satellite imagery at high north latitudes and found increases of up 2 days per year even over this relatively short period this represents increase of a month or more in some high latitude forests in just 26 years Others have similar trends at lower latitudes even as low as the sub tropical zone. But, does this translate into increased forest productivity?
- When we speak about climate change we mostly refer to changes in temperature and precip patterns. However, the chemistry of the atmosphere is also changing considerably. Figure from Peters et. al (2013) showing past and projected CO2 emissions scenario - You can see that we trending towards the higher end of the range.
- Recent studies suggest there is a positive impact of increased atm CO2 conc. on instantaneous photosynthetic rates Data have been collected through series field trials called the FACE experiments - Data suggest short term gains in productivity but they appear to decline over time due to a number of factors
- Increasing atm CO2 concentrations have also be shown to increase water use efficiency as shown in this graph of stomatal conductance vs. atm CO2 conc. - Plants don’t need to keep stomata open as long to take up required CO2 which means lower water loss - This means that plants may have increased capacity to grow and survive in low moisture environments in the future
- - Not going to go through this table in detail but just wanted to note that there are wide variety of models out there and they vary with respect to: Complexity, spatial scale of application, data requirements for calibration and application, and the nature of the issues and questions they are designed to explore This list represents only a small fraction of the models out there - Invite you to read the review by Medlyn et al for more detail.
- The best way to begin to decide what model to use is to identify the issues you wish to explore. It’s amazing how often people select a model and then try to decide what to do with it. A common question people have is: How might …. It’s helpful to break the question down into key factors to help determine what model attributes will be required with respect to its potential to address the question
- - Not going to go through this table in detail but just wanted to note that there are wide variety of models out there and they vary with respect to: Complexity, spatial scale of application, data requirements for calibration and application, and the nature of the issues and questions they are designed to explore This list represents only a small fraction of the models out there - Invite you to read the review by Medlyn et al for more detail.
- Issues around data availability are often key factors in selecting an appropriate model
- Climate change will also influence forest growth rates through its indirect impacts on dead organic matter decomposition rates and nutrient cycling. - Q10 represents the proportional increase in mass loss rate expected for a 10 deg increase in temperature - For soil temps around 20 deg C and higher Q10 ~ = 2 - Graph shows the effect of warming is lower for soils that are already relatively warm. Could lead to enhanced productivity due to increased nutrient availability But could also lead to declines in soil C that could offset gains in aboveground productivity particularly in high latitudes with large soil C reservoirs.
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- Points (overlaid on the map I showed you before) indicate locations of documented increases in water and heat stress induced tree mortality Notice that it’s not restricted to water-limited areas
- There are many other examples including the climate-change related spread of the oak jewel beetle into N. Europe and Armillaria root rots have become more prevalent due to increased water stress.
- In addition, as we’ve seen in some of the resiliency presentations at this congress, there have already been very large impacts of climate change on the activity of biotic disturbance agents. More than 18million ha of lodgepole pine forests have been killed in the past 15 years by MPB (indigenous beetle) An indigenous beetle that has been previously limited by very cold winters and springs, but do to the warming trend are much less limited.