Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change


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Seminar slides of presentation given by Danny Dalton, MS student at Oregon State University, on 21 October, 2008.

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  • Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for coming to the seminar. Today I will be presenting a topic which is a variation from the theme of this fall’s Horticulture seminar . However, I have attempted to keep in line with the overall goal of using the Internet as a tool to help in research and teaching . I will have John post my presentation on the NetVibes website, where you will be able to explore on your own some of the sources I have used for the presentation. There are many credible resources online regarding climate change and phenology, so please take some time to review them. There should also be time at the end of the presentation to ask questions and have a discussion.
  • Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change

    1. 1. Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change a presentation by: Daniel T. Dalton Oregon State University Department of Horticulture 21 October 2008
    2. 2. The Dilemma of Climate Change <ul><li>Defining a changing climate </li></ul><ul><li>Urgency of the current situation </li></ul><ul><li>Effects on plant development </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion – mitigation of climate change </li></ul>
    3. 3. Climate Change Defined “ Change in the state of the climate that can be identified… by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period” ( IPCC 2007 ) hprechtb Georgie Sharp Enzo D.
    4. 4. Contributing Factors to Climate Change <ul><li>Natural </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Greenhouse gas emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerosol emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Volcanic activity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar fluxes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Albedo </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ocean circulation </li></ul></ul>( USGS 2004 )
    5. 5. Anthropogenic Factors ( IPCC 2007 ) 70% increase <ul><li>Greenhouse gas emissions </li></ul>
    6. 6. Anthropogenic Factors <ul><li>Land-use change </li></ul>wsdot <ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul>
    7. 7. Urgent concern <ul><li>Atmospheric warming an established trend </li></ul><ul><li>Clear rise in sea levels </li></ul><ul><li>General decrease in snow cover </li></ul><ul><li>Increased frequency of extreme events </li></ul>( IPCC 2007 ) Temperature Sea level Snow cover 1850 2000
    8. 8. <ul><li>Ocean acidification in response to CO 2 uptake </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 + CO 2- 3 + H 2 O  H 2 CO - 3 </li></ul><ul><li>Undersaturation of calcium </li></ul><ul><li>Range expansion for phytoplankton </li></ul>Pelagic Effects thinkpanama ( Orr et al. 2005 )
    9. 9. Factors Influencing Plant Phenology <ul><li>Soil </li></ul><ul><li>Texture </li></ul><ul><li>Bulk density </li></ul><ul><li>pH </li></ul><ul><li>Fertility </li></ul><ul><li>Moisture </li></ul><ul><li>Atmosphere </li></ul><ul><li>Average temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Nocturnal temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Photoperiod </li></ul><ul><li>Precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>Composition </li></ul>( Wiegolaski 2001 ) Temperature appears to play the most important role
    10. 10. Genotype-Dependent <ul><li>Genetic variation in timing of phenological development </li></ul>Growing Degree-Days Cultivar (Dalton) Black currant blooming patterns
    11. 11. Carbon Cycle ( NASA 2008 ) 5.5 billion tons C per year!!! Global Carbon Pool (GtC) Atmospheric Terrestrial Aquatic Anthropogenic Total Atmosphere 750 Vegetation 610 Surface ocean 1020 Fossil fuel 4000       Soil 1580 DIC 38100               Sediment 150               Marine life 3               DOC 700         Subtotal 750   2190   39973   4000 46913
    12. 12. Water Cycle ( NASA/GSFC 2006 ) Click here for an animated depiction of the water cycle.
    13. 13. Nitrogen Cycle ( Farming Futures 2008 )
    14. 14. Emission Scenarios <ul><li>Mean Atmospheric CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>280 ppm pre-Industrial </li></ul><ul><li>384 ppm in 2007 </li></ul>( IPCC 2007 ) 836-1050 ppm 938-1184 ppm 611-754 ppm 535-669 ppm (Animation adapted from Sitch et al. 2008 ) ( Keeling et al. 2008 ) ( Orr et al. 2005 )
    15. 15. Today’s CO 2 Distribution ( NASA/JPL 2008 )
    16. 16. Effects of Elevated CO 2 ( Erhardt and Rusterholz 1997 ) Varying species responses to atmospheric changes Species Impacts on Flowers Nectar volume Nectar sugar Notes Lotus corniculatus 60% increase in number of flowers unchanged n.s. Legume Trifolium pratense 35% decrease in number of flowers unchanged n.s. Legume Betonica officinalis 7.8 days earlier bloom 28% reduction n.s. 27% fewer amino acids per flower Scabiosa columbaria n.s. 50% reduction 45% decrease per flower 40% fewer amino acids per flower Centaurea jacea 35% more likely to flower 38% reduction 31% decrease per flower 39% fewer amino acids per flower
    17. 17. Seasonal Weather Changes <ul><li>Reduced snow cover </li></ul><ul><li>Late-winter warming </li></ul><ul><li>Spring frosts </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme summer heat </li></ul><ul><li>Extended growing season </li></ul>dtdalton82 Global temperature increased 0.74 C from 1906 to 2005. Most pronounced in high latitude regions, in winter ( IPCC 2007 )
    18. 18. <ul><li>Reacclimation process much slower than deacclimation </li></ul><ul><li>Late-winter thawing induces phenological change </li></ul>Winter Effects ( Bokhorst et al. 2008 ) ( Sitch et al. 2008 )
    19. 19. Divergence of Community Bloom Patterns <ul><li>Spring flowering species tended to bloom earlier </li></ul><ul><li>Late-flowering species underwent a delay in flowering </li></ul>( Sherry et al. 2007 )
    20. 20. Aggregate Life History <ul><li>Not all phenological events will respond equally to all environmental cues </li></ul><ul><li>New community dynamics in competition for resources </li></ul>( Post et al. 2008 )
    21. 21. Aggregate Life History <ul><li>Chickweed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No significant change </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gray willow and dwarf birch </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ALH significantly shorter and earlier </li></ul></ul>( Post et al. 2008 )
    22. 22. Conclusions <ul><li>Clear evidence of a changing climate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Driven by anthropogenic causes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Phenology studies as both evidence and a predictor of future change </li></ul><ul><li>A call for immediate action </li></ul>
    23. 23. Resources and Phenological Networks Phenological Networks Project Budburst: http:// USA National Phenology Network: http:// / NatureWatch (Canada): http:// / Nature’s Calendar (UK): http:// / Climate Watch Networks GLOBE: http:// The Alliance for Climate Protection: http:// / NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Monitoring Division: http:// / Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http:// General Websites Flickr: http:// Wikipedia: http://
    24. 24. Articles Cited Bokhorst, S., J.W. Bjerke, F.W. Bowles, J. Melillo, T.V. Callaghan, and G.K. Phoenix. 2008. Impacts of Extreme Winter Warming in the Sub-Arctic: growing season responses of dwarf shrub heathland. Global Change Biology 14: 1-10 Erhardt, A. and H-P. Rusterholz. 1997. Effects of Elevated CO2 on Flowering Phenology and Nectar Production. Acta Oecologica 18(3): 249-253 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Allali, A., R. Bjariu, S. Diaz, I. Elgizouli, D. Griggs, D. Hawkins, O. Hohmeyer, B.P. Jallow, L. Kajfez-Bogataj, N. Leary, H. Lee, and D. Wratt, eds. Accessed 10/8/2008 online: Orr, J.C., V.J. Fabry, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, S.C. Doney, R.A. Feely, A. Gnanadesikan, N. Gruber, A. Ishida, F. Joos, R.M. Key, K. Lindsay, E. Maier-Reimer, R. Matear, P. Monfray, A. Mouchet, R.G. Najjar, G-K. Plattner, K.B. Rodgers, C.L. Sabine, J.L. Sarmiento, R. Schlitzer, R.D. Slater, I.J. Totterdell, M-F. Weirig, Y. Yamanaka, and A. Yool. 2005. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437 (7059):681-686 Post, E.S., C. Pedersen, C.C. Wilmers, and M.C. Forchhammer. 2008. Phenological Sequences Reveal Aggregate Life History Response to Climatic Warming. Ecology 89(2): 363-370 Sherry, R.A., X. Zhou, S. Gu, J.A. Arnone III, D.S. Schimel, P.S. Verburg, L.L. Wallace, and Y. Luo. 2007. Divergence of Reproductive Phenology Under Climatic Warming. PNAS 104(1): 198-202 Sitch, S., C. Huntingford, N. Gedney, P.E. Levy, M. Lomas, S.L. Piao, R. Betts, P. Ciais, P. Cox, P. Friedlingstein, C.D. Jones, I.C. Prentice, and F.I. Woodward. 2008. Evaluation of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle, Future Plant Geography and Climate-Carbonn Cycle Feedbacks Using Five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 2015-2039` Wiegolaski, F.E. 2001. Phenological Modifications in Plants by Various Edaphic Factors. International Journal of Biometeorology 45: 196-202
    25. 25. Other Resources Cited <ul><li>Farming Futures. 2008. Nitrogen Cycle of a Farm. Accessed 10/15/2008 online: </li></ul><ul><li>Keeling, R.F., SC. Piper, A.F. Bolllenbacher, and S.J. Walker. 2008. Atmospheric CO2 Values (ppmv) Derived from In Situ Air Samples Collected at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA. Accessed 10/13/2008 online: </li></ul><ul><li>NASA. 2008. Earth Observatory. Accessed 10/12/2008 online: </li></ul><ul><li>NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. 2006. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Water Cycle. Accessed 10/12/2008 online: http:// =2006-146 </li></ul><ul><li>NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. 2008. Global Carbon Dioxide Transport from AIRS Data, July 2008. Accessed 10/19/2008 online: </li></ul><ul><li>United States Geological Survey. 2004. Fire and Mud. Accessed 10/16/2008 online: http:// / </li></ul>