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![“I recently asked a colleague [CIO] whether he would
prefer to deliver a project somewhat late and
overbudget, but rich with business benefits, or one that is
on time and underbudget but of scant value to the
business.
He thought it was a tough call, and then went for the on-
time scenario.
Delivering on time and within budget is part of his IT
department’s performance metrics.
Chasing after the elusive business value, over which he
thought he had little control anyway, is not.”
Cutter Sr. Consultant Helen Pukszta](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/acnl2015-maartenhoppe-redbeadexperiment-151126204415-lva1-app6891/85/Acnl2015-maarten-hoppe-red-bead-experiment-23-320.jpg)
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Acnl2015 maarten hoppe-red bead experiment
The document summarizes key principles from the theory of variation: 1. Variation exists in all systems and performance will naturally vary over time. 2. Understanding sources of variation allows managers to set appropriate targets and expectations. 3. The majority of variation is caused by the system, not individual performers. Improving the system design and processes can reduce variation. 4. Statistical process control methods help distinguish common from special causes of variation and determine when meaningful changes have occurred.
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Similar to Acnl2015 maarten hoppe-red bead experiment
Acnl2015 maarten hoppe-red bead experiment
- 1. RED BEAD EXPERIMENT Maarten Hoppen Donderdag 5 november 2015
- 2. W Edwards Deming David P. Joyce Manythanks to! J Twitte joakim. Joakim Sundén
- 3.
- 4. The White BeadCo. IIP ISO9000 WE LISTEN TO OUR PEOPLE Only at their annual appraisal CMMI 5
- 5.
- 6. We Are Recruiting! 3willing workers. Must be willing to put in best efforts. Continuation of job is based on performance. No experience in making beads necessary. Educational requirements-nil. 2 inspectors. Must be able to distinguish red from white. Must be able to count to 20. No experience necessary. 1 chief inspector. Same qualifications as inspector. Must be able to speak in a loud voice. 1 recorder. Precise, follow orders, writing capability, human judgement ABOVE AVERAGE WORKERS ONLY NEED APPLY
- 7. FINISHED FILES ARETHE RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC STUDY COMBINED WITH THE EXPERIENCE OF MANY YEARS.
- 8. SHOUT OUT YOURCOUNT 3 - 2 - 1 - SHOUT
- 9. FINISHED FILES ARETHE RESULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIFIC STUDY COMBINED WITH THE EXPERIENCE OF MANY YEARS.
- 10. Lessons learned • Didincentives work? • Did the motivational posters help? • Did have a CMMI standard process work? • What could managers do to improve things for the workers? • What are the red beads in your company?
- 11. Lessons learned • It’sthe system not the workers • It’s management thinking that designed the system • Arbitrary numerical targets were completely ineffective • Rewarding or punishing the workers had no effect • Rigid and precise procedures are not sufficient to produce quality • Keeping the ‘best’ workers did not work Management tampering creates more problems than it solves • Posters and slogans are at best useless and can be insulting and create resentment • The biggest source of variation was in the system
- 13.
- 14. The First Principleof the Theory of Variation We Should Expect Things toVary, They Always Do
- 15.
- 16. My performance Performance Time ✓ ✗ My performance Performance ✓ ✗ Myperformance Performance Time ✓ ✗ My performancePerformance Time ✓ ✗ My performancePerformance ✓ ✗ My performance Performance ✓ ✗ My performan Performance Time ✓ ✗ My performa Performance ✓ ✗ My perform Performance ✓ ✗ My perform Performance Time ✓ ✗ My perfor Performance Time ✓ ✗ My perfo Performance Tim ✓ ✗ My perf Performance ✓ ✗ My per Performance ✓ ✗ My pe Performance ✓ ✗ My p Performance ✓ ✗ My Performance ✓ ✗ Charts Performance Time ✓ ✗ Upper Control Limit Lower Control Limit Average Statistical Process Control Charts
- 17. The Second Principleof the Theory of Variation UnderstandingVariation Will Tell us What to Expect
- 18. Signal or Noise? 10 20 30 40 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Velocity Control Limits 10 20 30 40 Signal or Noise? Velocity Reward! No more Mr Nice Guy! Manager repents... Tough management works! 20 30 40 Signal or Noise? Velocity Reward! Manager repents... Tough management works! 10 20 30 40 SignalorNoise? Velocity Reward! NomoreMrNiceGuy! Manager repents... Toughmanagement works! 20 30 40 SignalorNoise? Velocity Reward! Manager repents... Toughmanagement works! Signal or Noise? Reward! Manager Repents No more Mr Nice guy! Tough Management works!
- 19. Signal or Noise?Signalor Noise? 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Velocity Control Limits
- 20. Signal or Noise? 10 20 30 40 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Velocity Control Limits What to expect 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Velocity Average What to expect
- 21. What to expect 10 20 30 40 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Velocity Average Expectations... 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Velocity Expectations
- 22. Setting a TargetPerformance Time ✓ ✗ UpperControl Limit Lower Control Limit Average Setting a targetSetting a TargetPerformance Time ✓ ✗ Upper Control Limit Lower Control Limit Average
- 23. “I recently askeda colleague [CIO] whether he would prefer to deliver a project somewhat late and overbudget, but rich with business benefits, or one that is on time and underbudget but of scant value to the business. He thought it was a tough call, and then went for the on- time scenario. Delivering on time and within budget is part of his IT department’s performance metrics. Chasing after the elusive business value, over which he thought he had little control anyway, is not.” Cutter Sr. Consultant Helen Pukszta
- 24. If you givea manager a numerical target, he’ll make it, even if he has to destroy the company in the process.
- 25. The Third Principleof the Theory of Variation Work on the Causes of Variation, Which are Always Found in the System
- 26. Majority of Performanceis Down to the System Majority of Performance is Down to the System A bad system will defeat a good person every time. System Individual 95% 5%
- 27. System Conditions Work Design Policies Measures Structure Roles Procedures Information Jobskills Knowledge Business Cases Funding Poor requirements Inspection Compliance
- 28. The Fourth Principleof the Theory of Variation UnderstandingVariation Tells you When Something has Happened
- 29. Special Cause vsCommon Cause Special Cause vs Common Cause 10 20 30 40 50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Velocity
- 30. Did we improve?Didwe improve? 0 10 20 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Change introduced after sprint 8
- 31. SPC for comparison SPCfor comparison Team A Team B Team C