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Deciding the Course of Action
The Kepner-Tregoe Approach
Paul Morris
CIS144
Situation Analysis
(Where are we?)
Problem
Analysis
Past
What is
the fault?
Decision
Analysis
Present
How to correct
the fault?
Potential
Problem Analysis
Future
How to prevent
future faults?
“You think you have problems”
 Timing
 How urgent is the problem?
 Is a deadline involved?
 What will happen if nothing is done for
a while?
 Bakery and malfunctioning oven
“You think you have problems”
 Trend
 What is the problem potential for
growth?
 Bakery and malfunctioning oven
“You think you have problems”
 Impact
 How serious is the problem
 What are the effects on the people, the
product, the organization, and its
policies?
 Bakery and malfunctioning oven
“You think you have problems”
 “You know it’s a really bad day
when” problem
 “First Day on the Job…Trial by Fire”
problem
Pareto Analysis and Diagram
 This method shows the relative
importance of each individual
problem to the other problems in
the situation.
 This analysis draws its name from
the Pareto Principle (80% of the
trouble comes from 20% of the
problems)
 Vital few concerns vs. the trivial
many
Toasty O’s Product Problem
A. Inferior printing on boxes
(smeared/blurred)
 10,000
B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)
 30,000
C. Boxes damaged during shipping
 2,000
D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)
 25,000
E. No prize in box
 50,000
Toasty O’s Boxes Analysis
A B C D
E
S1
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Toasty O’s Product Problem
A. Inferior printing on boxes
(smeared/blurred)
 $100
B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)
 $6,000
C. Boxes damaged during shipping
 $7,000
D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)
 $87,500
E. No prize in box
 $17,500
Boxes vs. Lost Revenue
A B C D E
S1
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
A B C D
E
S2
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
K.T. Problem Analysis and
Troubleshooting
The basic premise of KT PA is
that there is always
something that distinguishes
what the problem IS from
what it IS NOT.
Fear of Flying Problem
Decision Analysis
 Prepare a decision statement with
both an action and a result
component
 Establish strategic requirements
(Musts), operational objectives
(Wants), and restraints (Limits)
 Rank objectives and assign relative
weights
 Generate alternatives
Decision Analysis
 Assign a relative score for each
alternative on an objective-by-
objective basis
 Calculate weighted score for each
alternative and identify top two or
three
 List adverse consequences for each
top alternative and evaluate
probability and severity
 Make a final single choice
Example of Decision Analysis
 Our company is looking for a new
site for construction of a branch
office.
 We have determined our MUSTs and
several other factors to consider
 Two sites have been brought to our
attention.
General Factors for Our Example
Factor Weight
1 Developable >= 25acres “Must”
2 Favorable physical site attrib. 6
3 Competitive location costs 7
4 Access to quality/trainable
workforce
8
5 Quality transportation access 10
6 Capacity & flexibility of utility
services
5
7 Regional air quality designations 8
Comparative Analysis
Site A Site B
Factor Wt. Facts
Scor
e
Wt.
Score
Facts Score
Wt.
Score
Favorable phy.
site
6
Great size &
config
10 60 Poor config & soil 4 24
Competitive
costs
7
Low Land
dev. $
8 56 High Land dev. $ 6 42
Access to qual.
workforce
8
Dense Pop;
many
compare ind.
9 72
Adeq. Pop; high
unemplyment
8 64
Quality trans.
access
10
30 miles to
I-5 with good
access
7 70
Right on Freeway;
good access
9 90
Utility services 5
All systems
meet req.
7 35
All systems meet
req.
8 40
Air Quality 8
Near non-
attainment
4 32
80 miles to non-
attainment
8 64
Total 325 324
Kepner tregoe approach to problem solving

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Kepner tregoe approach to problem solving

  • 1. Deciding the Course of Action The Kepner-Tregoe Approach Paul Morris CIS144
  • 2. Situation Analysis (Where are we?) Problem Analysis Past What is the fault? Decision Analysis Present How to correct the fault? Potential Problem Analysis Future How to prevent future faults?
  • 3. “You think you have problems”  Timing  How urgent is the problem?  Is a deadline involved?  What will happen if nothing is done for a while?  Bakery and malfunctioning oven
  • 4. “You think you have problems”  Trend  What is the problem potential for growth?  Bakery and malfunctioning oven
  • 5. “You think you have problems”  Impact  How serious is the problem  What are the effects on the people, the product, the organization, and its policies?  Bakery and malfunctioning oven
  • 6. “You think you have problems”  “You know it’s a really bad day when” problem  “First Day on the Job…Trial by Fire” problem
  • 7. Pareto Analysis and Diagram  This method shows the relative importance of each individual problem to the other problems in the situation.  This analysis draws its name from the Pareto Principle (80% of the trouble comes from 20% of the problems)  Vital few concerns vs. the trivial many
  • 8. Toasty O’s Product Problem A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred)  10,000 B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)  30,000 C. Boxes damaged during shipping  2,000 D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)  25,000 E. No prize in box  50,000
  • 9. Toasty O’s Boxes Analysis A B C D E S1 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
  • 10. Toasty O’s Product Problem A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred)  $100 B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)  $6,000 C. Boxes damaged during shipping  $7,000 D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)  $87,500 E. No prize in box  $17,500
  • 11. Boxes vs. Lost Revenue A B C D E S1 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 A B C D E S2 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
  • 12. K.T. Problem Analysis and Troubleshooting The basic premise of KT PA is that there is always something that distinguishes what the problem IS from what it IS NOT. Fear of Flying Problem
  • 13. Decision Analysis  Prepare a decision statement with both an action and a result component  Establish strategic requirements (Musts), operational objectives (Wants), and restraints (Limits)  Rank objectives and assign relative weights  Generate alternatives
  • 14. Decision Analysis  Assign a relative score for each alternative on an objective-by- objective basis  Calculate weighted score for each alternative and identify top two or three  List adverse consequences for each top alternative and evaluate probability and severity  Make a final single choice
  • 15. Example of Decision Analysis  Our company is looking for a new site for construction of a branch office.  We have determined our MUSTs and several other factors to consider  Two sites have been brought to our attention.
  • 16. General Factors for Our Example Factor Weight 1 Developable >= 25acres “Must” 2 Favorable physical site attrib. 6 3 Competitive location costs 7 4 Access to quality/trainable workforce 8 5 Quality transportation access 10 6 Capacity & flexibility of utility services 5 7 Regional air quality designations 8
  • 17. Comparative Analysis Site A Site B Factor Wt. Facts Scor e Wt. Score Facts Score Wt. Score Favorable phy. site 6 Great size & config 10 60 Poor config & soil 4 24 Competitive costs 7 Low Land dev. $ 8 56 High Land dev. $ 6 42 Access to qual. workforce 8 Dense Pop; many compare ind. 9 72 Adeq. Pop; high unemplyment 8 64 Quality trans. access 10 30 miles to I-5 with good access 7 70 Right on Freeway; good access 9 90 Utility services 5 All systems meet req. 7 35 All systems meet req. 8 40 Air Quality 8 Near non- attainment 4 32 80 miles to non- attainment 8 64 Total 325 324