Summary: Countries around the world are re-open while other countries like Canada continue with their vaccine’s mandates. Canada has over 90% of its population vaccinated. Trudeau has called the trucker occupation as a illegal - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/12/world/canada-protest-trudeau People want their freedoms back - https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/11/biden-trudeau-convoy-protest-00008358. State, Provincial, local, and federal governments are worried about the damage this will do to their various voter bases.

1. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS – VIRUSES
MANAGEMENT – WORLD HEALTH
ORGANIZATION AND WORLD
GOVERNMENTS
Paul Young CPA CGA
February 13, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
CPA, CGA (1996)
Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
SME – Customer Success Management
SME – Risk Management
SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
SME – Public Policy
SME – Emerging Technology
SME – Business Process Change
SME – Financial Solutions
SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
SME – Supply Chain Management
SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
SME – Internal Controls and Auditing

3. AGENDA
• Inflation
• Stock Market
• Wealth
• Cases
• Deaths
• Vaccinations by country
• Vaccinations / Delivery
• Vaccines / Approval
• Vaccinations / Procurement
• Employment – January 2021 (USA vs Canada)
• Unemployment (Canada vs OECD and G7)
• Stock Market
• Global GDP / Forecast
• Blog – Crisis Management
• Blog – New Normal
• Blog – Supply Chain
• Summary
• Training/Development

4. TOP GEOPOLITICAL THREATS
Source - https://www.ey.com/en_jo/geostrategy/when-political-disruption-surrounds-you-whats-your-next-strategic-
move
1. A two-tiered world
2. Evolving great power relationships
3. Middle powers on the global stage
4. Rise of cyber piracy
5. Climate change political nexus
6. Green mineral nationalism
7. Increase intervention supply chain
8. Technology nationalization
9. Expansion of the Brussels effect
10. Inequality and push for redistribution

5. PRESENTATION TITLE 5
Meanwhile, it’s earnings season. And corporate America has been announcing a mix of good and bad news with its quarterly
financial results.
Amid this backdrop, a bullish story has been emerging: Expectations for earnings growth are being revised up.
“Since the beginning of the earnings season, 4Q21 EPS has been revised up 4.3% to $53.48 (+26% y/y) and 2022 EPS has
been revised up 0.6% at $224.90 (+8% y/y),” JPMorgan’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote on Thursday. “Looking to the following
year, 2023 EPS has been revised up 0.7% since the beginning of the earnings season to $247.54 (+10% y/y).”
1. Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/a-bullish-stock-market-story-is-quietly-unfolding-172325011.html Stock market -
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/stock-market-quest-to-stand-firm-against-everything-comes-apart-1.1722278
2. Stock - https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-surges-stocks-fall-heightened-193015607.html
3. Geopolitics - https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/aukus-and-france-as-an-indo-pacific-power/
4. Geopolitical - https://www.investing.com/analysis/new-geopolitical-threats-for-2022-is-gold-in-danger-too-200617809
5. Commodities - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/growth-worries-slow-tight-supply-led-commodity-surge-896217
6. Inflation - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-and-armed-global-conflict-have-investors-worried-about-jay-powells-trigger-
finger-11644667696
7. Supply chain - https://www.cepro.com/business-support/breaking-down-the-ongoing-global-supply-chain-problem/
8. Critical metals - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2022/02/11/seafloor-mining-for-rare-metals--a-brilliant-idea-or-another-
environmental-catastrophe/?sh=1d1b02eb7719
9. Circular economies - https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/circular-economies-can-help-us-reach-climate-goals/
10. Debt - https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/circular-economies-can-help-us-reach-climate-goals/
11. Consumer spending - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-consumers-arent-happy-heres-what-that-could-mean-for-the-
economy-203857059.html Go for Liftoff.pdf
Commodities.pdf Inflation and armed
global conflict have investors worried about Jay Powell's trigger finger - MarketWatch.pdf
Global Supply
Chain.pdf
Seafloor Mining For
Critical Metals – A Brilliant Idea Or Another Environmental Catastrophe .pdf
Circular economies
can help us reach climate goals - Asia Times.pdf
Global Weekly
Economic Update Deloitte Insights.pdf
Higher interest rates
set to balloon nations' pandemic debt burden - Nikkei Asia.pdf
US consumers are 'in
a deep funk' What that means for the economy.pdf
A bullish stock
market story is quietly unfolding.pdf
Go for Liftoff.pdf weekly-economic-wat
ch.pdf
BottomLine_20220211
.pdf
Stock market quest
to stand firm against everything comes apart - BNN Bloomberg.pdf
WestpacWeekly20220
214.pdf
Oil surges, stocks fall
on heightened concerns of further Russia invasion of Ukraine.pdf
AUKUS and France as
an Indo-Pacific Power Geopolitical Monitor.pdf
Geopolitical risks.pdf
Meanwhile, it’s earnings season. And corporate America has been announcing a mix of good and
bad news with its quarterly financial results.
Amid this backdrop, a bullish story has been emerging: Expectations for earnings growth are
being revised up.
“Since the beginning of the earnings season, 4Q21 EPS has been revised up 4.3% to $53.48
(+26% y/y) and 2022 EPS has been revised up 0.6% at $224.90 (+8% y/y),” JPMorgan’s
Source -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungc
ga/what-is-up-with-the-stock-market-
february-11-2022

6. BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/7e1858b3-
48b6-4a28-b92b-8319e871ad62/
U.S. Consumer
Inflation 'Entrenched'.pdf
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/
c816a0fa-23b2-427e-9d49-cd8a52355809/

7. INFLATION

8. WEALTH global-wealth-report-
2015.pdf
At $514 trillion, China
overtakes US in terms of amassing the biggest net worth, World News wionews.com.pdf
The rapid growth in
global wealth McKinsey.pdf

9. HOSPITALIZATION

10. CASES
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html
covid19-daily-monito
r.pdf

11. DEATHS
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates
-and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

12. HOSPITALIZATION
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rat
es-and-
analysis/economic-
analysis.html

13. DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

14. DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

15. VACCINES
APPROVAL
Source -
https://www.nytimes.com/inter
active/2020/science/coronaviru
s-vaccine-tracker.html

16. PROCUREMENT
/
VACCINATIONS
Source -
https://launchandscalefaster.or
g/COVID-19

17. VACCINATION
DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.economist.co
m/graphic-
detail/tracking-
coronavirus-across-the-
world

18. USA VS CANADA EMPLOYMENT
U.S. Workers Ring In
the New Year In Style.pdf

19. GDP – CANADA VS USA
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/5d512b38-d983-47d7-b6e9-
a343cbe5c8a7/ or https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-
forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/1be1761a-
815a-439e-bfaa-476fb22c271f/
GDP - USA -
3Q21.pdf

20. USA VS CANADA – RETAIL SALES
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/44936144-
24f9-42ac-a484-8f634cc09ad0/
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/public
ations/detail/d2a6fa3d-77cd-4e1a-
a640-aa69e3f84a34/
U.S. Retail Sales
December Grinch-like.pdf
BMO_Retail Sales -
Canada - November 2021.pdf

21. GDP FORECAST
Source – Scotiabank
Incoming data confirm a robust Canadian economy. With
wages rising and upside surprises to inflation, we now
believe the Bank of Canada (BoC) will raise rates in April,
followed by three consecutive 25 bps moves in following
meetings. A pause is likely late in 2022 to assess the
impacts of the first set of moves. We remain of the view
that 100 bps of tightening is forthcoming in 2022, followed
by another 100 bps in 2023. The real policy rate would
remain negative through the end of 2023.
• While emergence of the omicron variant increases
uncertainty in the short-run, upside risks to the rate
forecast dominate. We’ll be re-assessing our rate forecast
once we have more clarity on the likely impacts of
omicron.
• The review of the BoC’s inflation-control mandate clouds
the rate and inflation outlook. Given the time it is taking to
come to a decision on the 5-year review, we fear the
Government and BoC are contemplating important
changes to the mandate. If that were to occur, greater
uncertainty would be introduced in the central bank’s
reaction function with potential impacts on inflation
expectations.
• The Federal Reserve is now clearly signalling concerns
about inflation and appears to be paving the way for
higher policy rates in the United States. We have brought
forward our expected rate increases from late-2022 to mid-
2022, with 100 bps of tightening expected in the year.
Global GDP - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-
next-for-the-global-economy-december-2021

22. CANADA UNEMPLOYMENT VS OECD

23. BLOG – CRISIS MANAGEMENT
There are emergency management
depts for a reason. So, why has
emergency management not been
subjected to annual audits as part of
scrutinization when it comes to
geopolitical events?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcg
a/crisis-and-emergency-management-
how-best-to-manage-risk

24. AUDIT REPORT / CANADA PANDEMIC
Crisis Management
Auditor/Report
Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the
Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not
appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages, Canada's auditor general says.
In a hard-hitting review released today, Auditor General Karen Hogan took the
country's primary pandemic response agency to task for failures in early warning,
surveillance, risk assessments, data-sharing with the provinces and follow-up on
Canadian travelers who were ordered into quarantine.
"The agency was not adequately prepared to respond to the pandemic, and it
underestimated the potential impact of the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said
the AG's review — one of three that looked at the Liberal government's management
of the COVID-19 crisis, which as of Thursday had killed 22,780 Canadians and
brought the country's economy to its knees.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-pandemic-covid-phac-1.5963895
Here is my work on crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-there-needs-to-be-audited-reports-of-
crisis-emergency-management-policies-and-procedures

25. NEW NORMAL
Here are many links on great work by Mckinsey Group - https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-
leading-through-the-crisis?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-
mck&hlkid=e220291424cb421991e4e6a3b37ecb2d&hctky=11493232&hdpid=b812b692-ed48-496d-a1e4-
9eb133561e6b#
I can add a bit more color in terms of what needs to transpire:
1. Careers in demand are those that are in areas like skills trades or healthcare or Information technology.
2. World continues to grow public sector employment at higher rate than the goods-producing sector.
3. Targeting policies that will support the reshoring of key parts of the supply chain.
4. Better balance between regulations when it comes to supporting getting goods to market.
5. More targeted focus of customers on areas like customer success to better help drive transformation of both the
public and private sectors.
6. Information technology will play a key role in terms of transforming the economy.
7. Fixing issues with global trade including the elimination of protectionism policies.
8. Reforming taxation including transforming tax acts as well as closing-down tax havens.
9. Reforming the housing market to ensure it is more affordable.
10. Reforming the size of government as part of moving to a digital model
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-canada-and-the-world-february-2021-242414576

26. SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_sour
ce=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end consumer.
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

27. SUPPLY CHAIN
Blog – Ecommerce and Retail – Container Shortage and Risks to Supply Chain
Ship-building companies continue to work on building ever larger container vessels, and there’s little
evidence this trend will stop anytime soon.
Today, an estimated 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea, with 60% of that – including virtually
all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly
commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, about US$14 trillion of the
world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box.
In short, without the standardized container, the global supply chain that society depends upon – and that I
study – would not exist.
A recent shortage of these containers is raising costs and snarling supply chains of thousands of products
across the world. The situation highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that,
from a distance, resemble Lego blocks floating on the sea.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/global-shortage-of-shipping-containers-highlights-their-importance-
in-getting-goods-to-amazon-warehouses-store-shelves-and-your-door-in-time-for-christmas/

28. NEXT PANDEMIC
Source - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/g20-leaders-urged-at-
global-health-summit-to-take-bold-action-to-prevent-future-pandemics-
868068233.html
TORONTO, May 21, 2021 /CNW/ - As G20 leaders meet for a Global Health Summit, the global
charity World Animal Protection is urging them to prioritize pandemic prevention and to curb the
global commercial wildlife trade due to its role in this pandemic and previous epidemics.
How come you never demand performance audits from @WHO
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-
value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits

29. RISK MANAGEMENT
Blog – Managing Data as part of Mitigating Geopolitical Risks –
Private and Public Sector
• This ties nicely into my many blogs around how best to
managed data as it relates to geopolitical events:
• Audit and Risk Analytics
https://ibm.ent.box.com/folder/116292560123
• Crisis and Emergency Management -
https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

30. OTHER GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Source - https://globalriskinsights.com/
1. Chile Election
2. Sudan political instability
3. EMEA dependence on Russia Natural Gas
4. South Africa political instability
5. Future Pandemic outbreak

31. IMPROVING IMMUNE SYSTEMS
• Improving the immune system - https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2020/mar/5-ways-to-boost-
your-immune-system/
• Food and immune system - https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/foods-that-boost-the-immune-
system
• Startups - https://www.medicalstartups.org/top/immunotherapy/
• Gene and cell therapy = https://www.drugtargetreview.com/article/100201/highlights-from-drug-target-
reviews-cell-gene-therapy-advancements-online-summit/

32. BOOSTER SHOTS
Source - https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-
boosters-block-immunity-omicron-study-finds/
COVID boosters do
not provide protection against Omicron, study finds Fortune - Heatlhcare.pdf

33. FOOD COSTS
1. Trucker shortage
2. Factor labor shortage
3. Rising warehouse costs
4. Food scarcity
5. Supply chain delays
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/5-reasons-why-groceries-are-so-expensive-right-now/?ecms_id=6176bbf5-ba66-
4d82-89f1-df3e9ceb9969&ecms_short=ART6517&doc_type=ted_article&sponsored=&acct=&parent_id=d2286731-
fef9-4f48-8a45-
df0f64c043f9&utm_content=featuredstory&position=2&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_ind
ustry_update&campaign_name=tiu220204&utm_campaign=tiu220204&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_i
ndustry_update&tinid=221763045
Here is my work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transportation-sector-analysis-and-commentary-
december-2021

34. REOPENING
• Growing protests to restriction of freedoms - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/13/protests-grow-across-canada-as-
police-struggle-to-reopen-key-bridge
• Vietnam - https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/vietnam-end-covid-curbs-international-flights-feb-15-
2022-02-13/
• Germany - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-lift-some-restrictions-next-week-covid-peak-sight-2022-02-11/
• USA and the world - https://fortune.com/2022/02/12/us-europe-rolling-back-covid-restrictions/
• Shots - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
• Travel - https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2022/02/13/2003773028
• Trudeau - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10505489/Bill-Maher-says-Freedom-Convoy-truckers-right-pissed-elitists.html
• Lockdowns - https://www.dailyrepublic.com/all-dr-news/solano-news/local-features/local-lifestyle-columns/ask-dr-scott-john-
hopkins-study-criticizes-lockdowns-for-covid-19/
• Inflation - https://www.dailyrepublic.com/all-dr-news/solano-news/local-features/local-lifestyle-columns/ask-dr-scott-john-
hopkins-study-criticizes-lockdowns-for-covid-19/
• Healthcare - https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/david-staples-our-lack-of-icu-capacity-shows-health-care-system-is-
broken
• Crisis Management - https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/first-lessons-from-government-evaluations-of-covid-19-
responses-a-synthesis-483507d6/
Blog – How to Mitigate the Impact of Future Variants and Pandemics – February 13, 2022
covid19-daily-monito
r.pdf
Protests grow across
Canada as police struggle to reopen key bridge Canada The Guardian.pdf
Vietnam to end
COVID curbs on international flights from Feb 15 Reuters.pdf
Germany to lift some
restrictions next week as COVID peak in sight Reuters.pdf
COVID restrictions
are being rolled back in the U.S. and Europe. Here's where that's happening. Fortune.pdf
More Than 10.3
Billion Shots Given Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker.pdf
As the world
reopens, China faces tough COVID-19 choices - Taipei Times.pdf
Bill Maher says
Freedom Convoy truckers have a right to be 'pissed off' at the 'elitists' Daily Mail Online.pdf
Ask Dr. Scott Johns
Hopkins study criticizes lockdowns for Covid-19.pdf
What Surging
Inflation Could Mean for Insurers - Events S&P Dow Jones Indices.pdf
David Staples Our
lack of ICU capacity shows health-care system is broken Edmonton Journal.pdf
First lessons from
government evaluations of COVID-19 responses A synthesis.pdf

35. SUMMARY
• More needs to be done to open up the economy in a safe way - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-can-both-the-
public-and-private-sectors-mitigate-geopolitical-risks
• The new normal is here to stay as both public and private sector cannot afford another shutdown that happen with COVID19 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-january-2021
• Accounting associations around the world need to push for mandatory audits of risk and crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/interna-audit-operational-and-performance-audit-outlook-2021-and-beyong
• The world is heading for a debt crisis - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-issues-global-debt-crisis-analysis-and-
commentary
• Macro/Micro Indicators for the United States - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-macro-and-micro-indicators-
united-states-february-2021-245192755
• All levels of government need to work together to better support the private sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-fix-competitiveness-through-government-policy
• Trudeau and vaccines-” The doses from India were available due to the generosity of the Indian government and the
cancellation of contracts by countries like South Africa. These American doses aren’t being released out of true friendship with
Canada and Mexico, the Biden administration has been as protectionist on the vaccine front as the Trump administration.” -
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-canada-gets-extra-doses-but-it-aint-due-to-trudeau

36. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning, and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies