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What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptx

Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted. All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way 3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands. There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months

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What is happening to
World’s forest?
Paul Young CPA CGA
SME Data and AI and Business
Strategist
Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – ESG Policy Development and
Reporting
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
Agenda
• Commodity Prices
• Global Housing Market
outlook
• Housing Starts – North
America
• Merchandise Trade
• Wages / Forestry Sector
• Employment
• Issues facing Forestry
• Justin Trudeau and the
Forestry Sector
• Technology and Forestry Sector
• West Fraser and Forestry
• Carbon Sink
• Government Cutbacks and
Global deforestation
Poor urban planning
Eco-Terrorism
Automation / Forestry Management
Siberia
Forest Fires
California / Fires
3D Housing
What’s next
Commodity Prices
Source https://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/sp-gsci
Housing vs Lumber Costs
Housing vs Lumber Costs

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What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptx

  • 1. What is happening to World’s forest? Paul Young CPA CGA SME Data and AI and Business Strategist
  • 2. Paul Young - Bio • CPA, CGA (1996) • Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2) • SME – Customer Success Management • SME – Risk Management • SME – ESG Policy Development and Reporting • SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting • SME – Public Policy • SME – Emerging Technology • SME – Business Process Change • SME – Financial Solutions • SME – Macro/Micro Indicators • SME – Supply Chain Management • SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform • SME – Internal Controls and Auditing Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/ SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
  • 3. Agenda • Commodity Prices • Global Housing Market outlook • Housing Starts – North America • Merchandise Trade • Wages / Forestry Sector • Employment • Issues facing Forestry • Justin Trudeau and the Forestry Sector • Technology and Forestry Sector • West Fraser and Forestry • Carbon Sink • Government Cutbacks and Global deforestation Poor urban planning Eco-Terrorism Automation / Forestry Management Siberia Forest Fires California / Fires 3D Housing What’s next
  • 7. Global Housing Outlook Source - https://www.fool.com/ the-ascent/personal- finance/articles/4-signs- that-a-housing-market- crash-is-coming/ 4 Signs That a Housing Market Crash Is Coming.pdf
  • 8. Forestry Sector (Wages) Source - https://www.livingin-canada.com/salaries-for-forestry-professionals-canada.html or https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190530/dq190530a-eng.htm Average wages annually $52,800/year • Forestry Sector pays between 25% to 70% higher wages than the service sector • Forestry sector personal income tax ranges are between 35% to 40%
  • 9. Forestry Employment Source - https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/statsprofile/employment/ca
  • 10. Issue facing Forestry • Softwood Lumber dispute - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/overall-impact-of-softwood-lumber-dispute-minimal-for- canada-economist~1108540 or https://www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com/canada-has-filed-appeal-against-wtos-april-ruling-in-softwood- lumber-dispute-with-us/ • Carbon Tax – Carbon tax is added on to the cost of production https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/applying-carbon-tax- without-cutting-back-regulations-may-be-costly-jack-mintz~1649746 • High stumpage cost - https://www.timescolonist.com/business/teal-jones-shuts-down-logging-in-honeymoon-bay-citing-high-log-costs- 1.23841024 • Hydro Rates - https://www.drydennow.com/local/rickford-aims-to-cut-costs-for-forestry-sector • Regulations - http://www.chamber.ca/media/news-releases/Canada-competiveness-ranking-drops-4-spots-in-2-years/ • Small business tax reforms - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/cfib-concerned-by-potential-tax-hits-to-small-businesses- in-2019~1560874 • Forestry losses - https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/global-tree-cover-loss-data-2019 • PBO / Tree Fund - https://www.570news.com/2021/01/28/liberals-two-billion-trees-promise-to-cost-2-78-billion-more-than-planned-pbo- says/ • Biodiversity - Blog – Biodiversity – Protecting Wildlife from Traffic and Human through Fending and other Measures – Municipal and Local Government - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young- 055632b_when-covid-rules-kept-humans-home-wildlife-activity-7081633458157993984-PjIf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  • 11. Technology / Forestry Sector Source - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/how-technology-is-transforming-bcs-forest-industry- 5248/ • Investment into new technologies is revolutionizing the way Canada’s forest industry does business. The federal government reports between 2005 and 2015, Canada’s forest industry cut its total energy use by 31 per cent and reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 49 per cent by generating bioenergy from waste products and increasing energy efficiency. • AI and Forestry - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ai-can-help-us-map-forests-down-to- each-tree/ • Automation - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/fully-automated-applying-robotic-solutions-to-the- sawmill/ • Supply Chain/Digital = https://www.poyry.com/news/articles/how-will-digitalisation-boost- forestry-operations • Analytics and Forestry Management - https://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/tag/6399
  • 12. West Fraser Forestry Source - https://www.canadian manufacturing.com/fina ncing/west-fraser-says- worst-of-its-b-c-mill- cuts-done-after-wave-of- curtailments-236315/
  • 13. Softwood Lumber - History Source - https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/04/b-c-lumber- industry-celebrates-nafta-panel-decision-in-trade-dispute-with-us/
  • 16. Eco-Terrorism and other ignition points There has been a rise in eco-terrorism • Australia bushfires - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50568026 • BC Wildfires - https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rcmp-say-arson-behind-29-okanagan- wildfires-over-last-four-years • Amazon - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/arsonists-are-torching-the- amazon-this-elite-team-of-firefighters-stands-in-their-way/2019/10/08/525330f4-d8a8-11e9-a688- 303693fb4b0b_story.html • California Appl Fire caused by a poorly maintained car - https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/04/apple-fire-at-26450-acres-relief-crews-for-weary- firefighters-arriving/ • Oregon Fires - https://ktvz.com/news/fire/2020/07/28/three-suspicious-la-pine-area-wildfires- investigated-as-arson-tips-sought/ Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-headed-to-more-ecoterrorism
  • 17. Forestry Fires Fire was purposely set/Eco-Terrorism San Jose Fire/Cal Fire Power Lines Balloon collides with power line that sent sparks to the ground • Mitigation • More insulation of wires - https://energized.edison.com/stories/insulated-wires-help-reduce-wildfire- risk • Use of AI and Data Analytics in terms of forest prevention/detection
  • 18. Automation • Using drones to plant trees - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/06/flash- forest-and-tree-planting-with- drones.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed %3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29 • Innovation / planting - https://www.fastcompany.com/90504789/these-drones- can-plant-40000-trees-in-a-month-by-2028-theyll-have-planted-1-billion • Tree Planting / Drones - https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/treeplanting-drones-could-help- restore-world-s-forests-a4116376.html
  • 19. Canada Boreal Forest • Canada’s boreal forest make up 9% of the world forest - https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/forests- forestry/how-much-forest-does-canada-have/17601
  • 20. Forest Fires – BC and California https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_blog-forestry-management-and-california- activity-6703181159909724160-qWzg I think all levels of government need to take a hard look at how they managed their forest to mitigate the impacts of wildfires
  • 21. Audits • Significant financial-control weaknesses / NS Forestry and Land - https://globalnews.ca/news/6095967/nova-scotia-auditor-general-financial-report/ • Forestry Management / City of Toronto - https://globalnews.ca/news/5221912/toronto-forestry-crews-audit/ • Audit – Clear Cut and Water Management - https://thenarwhal.ca/muddied-waters- how-clearcut-logging-is-driving-a-water-crisis-in-b-c-s-interior/ • Tree planning / Corporations - https://www.terracestandard.com/news/skeena- sawmills-in-terrace-contracts-local-firms-for-2020-reforestation-projects/ • Timber Audits - https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2020.10.0543.html • Australia - https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/multiple-problems- with-state-logging-agency-damning-audit-reveals-20201008-p563dj.html
  • 22. California / Fires Source - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-11/california-wildfires-climate-change-gavin- newsom-trump • California has done poor job with management of its forests - With CA ablaze, Newsom blasts Trump admin for failing to fight climate change Source - https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/14/californias-government- solely-responsible-for-states-forest-management-and-wildfire-debacle/ It is time to for governments to bring in better forest mgmt. practices • https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-state-and-local-government- united-states
  • 23. Blog – Flood, Forest Management, and Land Use risks from Climate Change • Warmer air leads to more intense precipitation • More rain, less snow • Changing patterns of rain on snow https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-mitigate-geopolitical-risks-as-part-of-safeguarding- your-assets-249988353 https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/climate-change-is-making- flooding-worse-3-reasons-the-world-is-seeing-more-record-breaking-deluges/ or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/climate-change-and-the-green-economy-canada-october- 2022pptx I will add lack of audited crisis & emergency plans that mitigate climate change impacts on infrastructure & property.
  • 24. What’s next • Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles • Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world • Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted. • All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions • More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation • Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute • There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way • 3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream • More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands. • There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months Blog – What is next for the Forestry Sector – September 2023 Summary: In the week ending August 25, the price of Western S-P-F 2×4 #2&Btr KD (RL) was US$420 mfbm. This is up by $10, or two per cent, from the previous week when it was $410. That week’s price is down by $35, or eight per cent, from one month ago when it was US$455 mfbm. Compared to the same week last year, when it was US$624 mfbm, that week’s price is down by $204, or 33 per cent. Compared to two years ago when it was US$390 mfbm, that week’s price is up by $30 or eight per cent. Source: https://www.woodbusiness.ca/late-season-demand-pushes-lumber-prices-up-madisons/ Other links and sources: Fires - https://qz.com/canada-has-more-than-doubled-its-annual-record-for-land-1850804009 Housing – Outlook - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-predictions-forecast-next- 175441472.html Planning - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-do-you-best-support-urban-planning- rural-vs-urban Rural - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-required-to-better-support-rural-canada Biodiversity - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/global-biodiversity-why-proposed-changes- ontarios-greenbelt-young Global Housing - https://stonenews.eu/global-house-price-downturn-fades-most-markets-to-rise-in- 2024/ Canada housing - https://building.ca/feature/canada-needs-all-hands-on-deck-to-address-the-housing- affordability-crisis/ Outlook - https://www.resourcewise.com/forest-products-blog/canadian-lumber-market-shrinking- could-europe-fill-gap

Editor's Notes

  1. To change the image on this slide, select the picture and delete it. Then click the Pictures icon in the placeholder to insert your own image.
  2. Source - https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price Source - https://www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com/topic/price-analysis-and-info/ Source e- https://www.woodbusiness.ca/global-lumber-trade-increased-in-march-2020-despite-covid-19/ or https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs Source - https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbr
  3. Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/0b055579-ad89-406b-b9fd-04045a1e4ede/
  4. Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/0b055579-ad89-406b-b9fd-04045a1e4ede/