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Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptx

Summary: Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand. New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected. But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000. The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer. "High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month. Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html

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GLOBAL HOUSING
MARKET ANALYSIS AND
COMMENTARY-
SEPTEMBER 2023
PRESENTER NAME: PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA
SENIOR DATA AND AI THOUGHT LEADER
DATE: SEPTEMBER 20, 2023
PAU L YO U N G -
B I O
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – ESG and Sustainability Policies and
Reporting
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@outlook.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Senior Data and AI Thought Leader
AG E N DA
KEY HOUSING METRICS
CANADA RESELL HOUSING MARKET
CONSTRUCTION COSTS
LUMBER COSTS
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX
HOME PRICE INDEX – CANADA
GLOBAL HOUSING PRICES
CANADA HOUSEHOLD DEBT
3D PRINTING / HOUSING
Key Housing Stats – Canada and the United States
U R BA N A R E A / C A N A DA
Housing Costs – Canada
Lumber Prices
Housing Affordability Index
Global Housing Prices
Source - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/charted-where-house-prices-have-fallen-
in-the-last-quarter/
Canada Household Debt
U N I T E D S TAT E S AV E R AG E
H O U S E P R I C E
3D Housing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqsEcUjcY6Q
3D Printing of Homes
3 D H O U S I N G
B LO G / P RO P E R T Y
M A N AG E M E N T
Blog – Real Estate – Property Management – Wells Fargo CFO warns of commercial real estate weakness -
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_wells-fargo-cfo-warns-of-commercial-real-activity-
7075069259709624320-xitd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Building of Tiny Houses
Blog – Sector – Construction – Residential – Affordable housing options including Tiny Himes -
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_tiny-houses-for-the-homeless-what-2-nonprofits-
activity-7099055521617383425-ZS1e?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
R E Z O N I N G
Blog – Sector – Real Estate – Rezoning – Housing affordability – Silverstein Properties -
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_manhattan-office-tower-purchased-for-1725m-activity-
7095407574325342208-PlhC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Real estate developer, investor and manager Silverstein Properties and office-to-residential conversion developer
Metro Loft Management, both based in New York City, have acquired 55 Broad Street, a 30-story office building in
the city’s Financial District, with the intent of converting the property into 571 market-rate apartments.
The joint venture purchased the property from the Rudin family, who will retain an equity stake in the
redevelopment, for $172.5 million, according to a press release shared with Multifamily Dive.
Cities and local municipal governments around the world have been struggling with housing including supply. I have written many
blogs on how to address systemic issues with real estate including costs, supply, streamlining of taxes/permits, rezoning, urban vs
rural planning strategy, and adoption of technology (3D, green materials, and modular) - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-
young-055632b_housing-is-a-direct-federal-responsibility-activity-7094973935661809665-
16VC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
#buildingpermits #greenconstructionmaterials #3dprinting #modular #rezoning #vacantland
#urbanvsruralplanning #taxes #developmentfees #transit #infrastructure.
P ROT E C T I N G T H E G R E E N B E LT
Blog – Sector – Public Sector – Hawaii and County of Maui – What is next for the Land - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-
young-055632b_maui-fires-could-disrupt-efforts-to-rebuild-activity-7097289730895069184-
Sm3b?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Deadly wildfires in Maui scorched farm lands, potentially setting back Hawai’i’s agricultural industry as it looks to
rebound from the demise of sugarcane and pineapple plantations.
Fires on the east side of County of Maui burned through some agricultural areas, Brad Rippey, a meteorologist at
the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said in an agency radio update. Affected lands were once planted for sugarcane
but converted to other crops in recent years.
State of Hawaii’i has worked to diversify its agricultural industry in recent years to decrease its reliance on imports.
The State of Hawaii Department of Agriculture announced last week it would establish an emergency agricultural
loan program to help farmers and ranchers rebuild.
Hawaii like many locations will need to do a complete review of its land management including how best to
manage arable land along with dealing with dry vegetation.
Here is my work on agricultural - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-agriculture-sector-august-2023pptx
and housing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-housing-market-analysis-and-commentary-july-2023pptx
U R BA N P L A N N I N G
Housing needs to be tackled by local government with support by private sector and all levels of government
Urban - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_activity-7109163890856390656-
peiw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
North https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenges-facing-northern-communities-paul-young
Rural - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-address-rural-affairs-planning-issues-paul-young
A D D R E S S I N G H O U S I N G
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/58c3d98c-3969-4150-9447-89cfe959dfcf/
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was a little over $711,000 in May 2022, up 3.4% from
the same month last year. The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA,
two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation in May
2022 cuts $122,500 from the national average price.
https://creastats.crea.ca/en-CA/
Summary
Real estate will continue to see a market correction on prices. Many houses are overpriced by at least 50%.
All governments need to come up with more effective land-use policies including forest, water, and land management.
The stress test for banks needs to be revisited
Rising interest rates will continue to put stress on household budgets
Building codes needs to change to better support 3D housing solutions
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/affordable-housing-household-debt-and-homelessness-canada-and-
the-world-may-2022pptx
L E S S O N S F RO M L A H A I N A
Blog – Lessons learned from Lahaina wildfires – Climate Change – ESG Reporting - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-
young-055632b_older-homes-contributed-to-hawaii-fires-activity-7105933295854522369-
kB22?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Older, dense construction with little fire resistance helped the @Lahaina, Hawaii, fire to rapidly spread, creating
the seventh most damaging wildfire in the U.S. since 1990 and the deadliest in the country in over 100 years,
according to a new report from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety.
Many of the homes burned in the fire had components of wildfire-resistant construction, but weak points — often
due to more combustible materials or older building practices — helped fuel the conflagration, the report said.
About four in five buildings in Lahaina were single-family homes, largely built between the 1960s and 1980s.
Nonetheless, newer homes and commercial construction used materials like concrete fiber board and stucco,
which slowed the fire.
BU I L D I N G C O D E S
Blog - DOE makes $400M available to assist states, territories in adopting energy-efficient building codes -
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_doe-makes-400m-available-to-assist-states-activity-
7109945201917382657-Urgj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Summary
• Global housing market continues to face many challenges
Blog – What is next for Housing – September 2023
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb
demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3%
month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to
Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well
below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to
1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-
family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at
535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new
construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest
customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a
growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move
lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said
Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-
construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Links and sources:
Top challenges facing housing - https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2022/08/08/three-
challenges-facing-the-affordable-housing-market-and-how-industry-leaders-can-start-addressing-
them/?sh=7f6ae1503df4
Belt Road - https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-us-plan-counter-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-work
Construction backlog - https://www.ecmweb.com/construction/article/21273726/abcs-construction-
backlog-indicator-steady-in-august
https://www.sofi.com/article/real-estate/3d-printing-takes-housing-crisis/ -3D
Urban - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_activity-7109163890856390656-
peiw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
North https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenges-facing-northern-communities-paul-young
Rural - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-address-rural-affairs-planning-issues-paul-young

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Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptx

  • 1. GLOBAL HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY- SEPTEMBER 2023 PRESENTER NAME: PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA SENIOR DATA AND AI THOUGHT LEADER DATE: SEPTEMBER 20, 2023
  • 2. PAU L YO U N G - B I O • CPA, CGA (1996) • Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2) • SME – Customer Success Management • SME – Risk Management • SME – ESG and Sustainability Policies and Reporting • SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting • SME – Public Policy • SME – Emerging Technology • SME – Business Process Change • SME – Financial Solutions • SME – Macro/Micro Indicators • SME – Supply Chain Management • SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform • SME – Internal Controls and Auditing Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@outlook.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/ SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga Senior Data and AI Thought Leader
  • 3. AG E N DA KEY HOUSING METRICS CANADA RESELL HOUSING MARKET CONSTRUCTION COSTS LUMBER COSTS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX HOME PRICE INDEX – CANADA GLOBAL HOUSING PRICES CANADA HOUSEHOLD DEBT 3D PRINTING / HOUSING
  • 4. Key Housing Stats – Canada and the United States
  • 5. U R BA N A R E A / C A N A DA
  • 9. Global Housing Prices Source - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/charted-where-house-prices-have-fallen- in-the-last-quarter/
  • 11. U N I T E D S TAT E S AV E R AG E H O U S E P R I C E
  • 13. 3 D H O U S I N G
  • 14. B LO G / P RO P E R T Y M A N AG E M E N T Blog – Real Estate – Property Management – Wells Fargo CFO warns of commercial real estate weakness - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_wells-fargo-cfo-warns-of-commercial-real-activity- 7075069259709624320-xitd?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  • 15. Building of Tiny Houses Blog – Sector – Construction – Residential – Affordable housing options including Tiny Himes - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_tiny-houses-for-the-homeless-what-2-nonprofits- activity-7099055521617383425-ZS1e?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  • 16. R E Z O N I N G Blog – Sector – Real Estate – Rezoning – Housing affordability – Silverstein Properties - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_manhattan-office-tower-purchased-for-1725m-activity- 7095407574325342208-PlhC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop Real estate developer, investor and manager Silverstein Properties and office-to-residential conversion developer Metro Loft Management, both based in New York City, have acquired 55 Broad Street, a 30-story office building in the city’s Financial District, with the intent of converting the property into 571 market-rate apartments. The joint venture purchased the property from the Rudin family, who will retain an equity stake in the redevelopment, for $172.5 million, according to a press release shared with Multifamily Dive. Cities and local municipal governments around the world have been struggling with housing including supply. I have written many blogs on how to address systemic issues with real estate including costs, supply, streamlining of taxes/permits, rezoning, urban vs rural planning strategy, and adoption of technology (3D, green materials, and modular) - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul- young-055632b_housing-is-a-direct-federal-responsibility-activity-7094973935661809665- 16VC?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop #buildingpermits #greenconstructionmaterials #3dprinting #modular #rezoning #vacantland #urbanvsruralplanning #taxes #developmentfees #transit #infrastructure.
  • 17. P ROT E C T I N G T H E G R E E N B E LT Blog – Sector – Public Sector – Hawaii and County of Maui – What is next for the Land - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul- young-055632b_maui-fires-could-disrupt-efforts-to-rebuild-activity-7097289730895069184- Sm3b?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop Deadly wildfires in Maui scorched farm lands, potentially setting back Hawai’i’s agricultural industry as it looks to rebound from the demise of sugarcane and pineapple plantations. Fires on the east side of County of Maui burned through some agricultural areas, Brad Rippey, a meteorologist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said in an agency radio update. Affected lands were once planted for sugarcane but converted to other crops in recent years. State of Hawaii’i has worked to diversify its agricultural industry in recent years to decrease its reliance on imports. The State of Hawaii Department of Agriculture announced last week it would establish an emergency agricultural loan program to help farmers and ranchers rebuild. Hawaii like many locations will need to do a complete review of its land management including how best to manage arable land along with dealing with dry vegetation. Here is my work on agricultural - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-agriculture-sector-august-2023pptx and housing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-housing-market-analysis-and-commentary-july-2023pptx
  • 18. U R BA N P L A N N I N G Housing needs to be tackled by local government with support by private sector and all levels of government Urban - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_activity-7109163890856390656- peiw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop North https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenges-facing-northern-communities-paul-young Rural - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-address-rural-affairs-planning-issues-paul-young
  • 19. A D D R E S S I N G H O U S I N G https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/58c3d98c-3969-4150-9447-89cfe959dfcf/ The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was a little over $711,000 in May 2022, up 3.4% from the same month last year. The national average price is heavily influenced by sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation in May 2022 cuts $122,500 from the national average price. https://creastats.crea.ca/en-CA/ Summary Real estate will continue to see a market correction on prices. Many houses are overpriced by at least 50%. All governments need to come up with more effective land-use policies including forest, water, and land management. The stress test for banks needs to be revisited Rising interest rates will continue to put stress on household budgets Building codes needs to change to better support 3D housing solutions https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/affordable-housing-household-debt-and-homelessness-canada-and- the-world-may-2022pptx
  • 20. L E S S O N S F RO M L A H A I N A Blog – Lessons learned from Lahaina wildfires – Climate Change – ESG Reporting - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul- young-055632b_older-homes-contributed-to-hawaii-fires-activity-7105933295854522369- kB22?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop Older, dense construction with little fire resistance helped the @Lahaina, Hawaii, fire to rapidly spread, creating the seventh most damaging wildfire in the U.S. since 1990 and the deadliest in the country in over 100 years, according to a new report from the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety. Many of the homes burned in the fire had components of wildfire-resistant construction, but weak points — often due to more combustible materials or older building practices — helped fuel the conflagration, the report said. About four in five buildings in Lahaina were single-family homes, largely built between the 1960s and 1980s. Nonetheless, newer homes and commercial construction used materials like concrete fiber board and stucco, which slowed the fire.
  • 21. BU I L D I N G C O D E S Blog - DOE makes $400M available to assist states, territories in adopting energy-efficient building codes - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_doe-makes-400m-available-to-assist-states-activity- 7109945201917382657-Urgj?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
  • 22. Summary • Global housing market continues to face many challenges Blog – What is next for Housing – September 2023 Summary: Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand. New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected. But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single- family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000. The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer. "High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month. Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new- construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html Links and sources: Top challenges facing housing - https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2022/08/08/three- challenges-facing-the-affordable-housing-market-and-how-industry-leaders-can-start-addressing- them/?sh=7f6ae1503df4 Belt Road - https://www.cfr.org/blog/will-us-plan-counter-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-work Construction backlog - https://www.ecmweb.com/construction/article/21273726/abcs-construction- backlog-indicator-steady-in-august https://www.sofi.com/article/real-estate/3d-printing-takes-housing-crisis/ -3D Urban - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_activity-7109163890856390656- peiw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop North https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenges-facing-northern-communities-paul-young Rural - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-address-rural-affairs-planning-issues-paul-young

Editor's Notes

  1. Source - https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs
  2. https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/affordability-conditions-continue-to-weaken-in-june-2023 or https://cdn.nar.realtor//sites/default/files/documents/hai-07-2023-housing-affordability-index-2023-09-08.pdf