https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-leading-through-the-crisis/charting-the-path-to-the-next-normal/preparing-for-future-pandemics-now-can-help-minimize-the-economic-damage

1. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS – VIRUSES
MANAGEMENT – WORLD HEALTH
ORGANIZATION AND WORLD
GOVERNMENTS
Paul Young CPA CGA
October 15, 2021

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• Cases
• Deaths
• Vaccinations by country
• Vaccinations / Delivery
• Vaccines / Approval
• Vaccinations / Procurement
• Employment – January 2021 (USA vs Canada)
• Unemployment (Canada vs OECD and G7)
• Stock Market
• Global GDP / Forecast
• Blog – Crisis Management
• Blog – New Normal
• Blog – Supply Chain
• Summary
• Training/Development

4. SUMMARY
There are many challenges facing the world including rising energy prices, supply chain disruption, geopolitical risks, and events.
Both the public and private sector will need to be agile with their budgeting and forecasting cycle as part of mitigating various
risks impacting its operations.
Source - https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/risks-on-the-rise-for-global-stock-markets-warns-chris-wood-
121101500340_1.html and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-stock-marklet-october-15-2021
1. Supply Chain disruption – https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/whats-causing-americas-massive-supply-chain-
disruptions/story?id=80587129
2. Florida and Ports - https://news.yahoo.com/florida-governor-ron-desantis-offers-223121890.html
3. Metals - https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4012184/Latest-news/LIVE-FUTURES-1510-LME-copper-spreads-
backwardated-until-2024-zinc-up-22-from-Monday.html
4. Climate change and GDP - https://www.raconteur.net/sustainability/climate-change/ditch-gdp-tackle-climate-change/
5. IPO - https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/opto/how-are-market-conditions-for-ipos
6. Public debt - https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/10/6882caef5811-global-public-debt-remains-at-record-high-levels-
in-2021-imf.html
7. GDP - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/imf-cuts-growth-forecast-as-supply-disruptions-covid-pandemic-weighs.html
8. Insurance Risks – https://www.globest.com/2021/10/13/hidden-cyber-risk-could-cause-us-property-insurance-to-
rise/?slreturn=20210916061710
9. Geopolitical Risks - https://worldview.stratfor.com/
10. Retailers - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/14/costco-nike-can-best-weather-supply-chain-disruptions-traders-say.html

5. CASES
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html
covid19-daily-monito
r_COVID19.pdf

6. DEATHS
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates
-and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

7. DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

8. DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rat
es-and-
analysis/economic-
analysis.html

9. VACCINES
APPROVAL
Source -
https://www.nytimes.com/inter
active/2020/science/coronaviru
s-vaccine-tracker.html

10. PROCUREMENT
/
VACCINATIONS
Source -
https://launchandscalefaster.or
g/COVID-19

11. VACCINATION DOSAGE
Source - https://www.economist.com/graphic-
detail/tracking-coronavirus-across-the-world

12. USA VS CANADA EMPLOYMENT

13. GDP – CANADA VS USA
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/5d512b38-d983-47d7-b6e9-
a343cbe5c8a7/ or https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-
forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html
GDP – Canada by Industry – June 2021 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-analysis-and-
commentary-june-2021
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/be52bd44-
09ee-4909-a901-368b8f7780a9/

14. STOCK MARKETS
There are many challenges facing the world including rising energy prices, supply chain disruption, geopolitical risks, and
events.
Both the public and private sector will need to be agile with their budgeting and forecasting cycle as part of mitigating
various risks impacting its operations.
Source - https://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/risks-on-the-rise-for-global-stock-markets-warns-chris-wood-
121101500340_1.html and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-stock-marklet-october-15-2021
1. Supply Chain disruption – https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/whats-causing-americas-massive-supply-chain-
disruptions/story?id=80587129
2. Florida and Ports - https://news.yahoo.com/florida-governor-ron-desantis-offers-223121890.html
3. Metals - https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/4012184/Latest-news/LIVE-FUTURES-1510-LME-copper-spreads-
backwardated-until-2024-zinc-up-22-from-Monday.html
4. Climate change and GDP - https://www.raconteur.net/sustainability/climate-change/ditch-gdp-tackle-climate-change/
5. IPO - https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/opto/how-are-market-conditions-for-ipos
6. Public debt - https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/10/6882caef5811-global-public-debt-remains-at-record-high-
levels-in-2021-imf.html
7. GDP - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/imf-cuts-growth-forecast-as-supply-disruptions-covid-pandemic-weighs.html
8. Insurance Risks – https://www.globest.com/2021/10/13/hidden-cyber-risk-could-cause-us-property-insurance-to-
rise/?slreturn=20210916061710
9. Geopolitical Risks - https://worldview.stratfor.com/
10. Retailers - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/14/costco-nike-can-best-weather-supply-chain-disruptions-traders-say.html

15. GDP FORECAST
Source – Scotiabank
"The recovery remains very uneven, with strikingly different outcomes
across countries," the OECD said in its interim economic outlook.
Global gross domestic product has surpassed its pre-pandemic level
following last year's COVID-induced recession.
Global output is now expected to expand by 5.7 percent this year, down 0.1
percentage points from the organization's previous forecast in May.
But the outlook for 2022 has slightly improved, with 4.5% growth now
expected, up by 0.1 points.
"Output and employment gaps remain in many countries, particularly in
emerging-market and developing economies where vaccination rates are
low," the report said.
The OECD lowered its growth outlook for the United States from 6.9 to
6.0% this year. The US Congressional Budget Office has forecast 6.7%
growth for the world's top economy.
https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/21176040/oecd-
lowers-global-us-economic-growth-
forecasts?utm_source=IY%20IW%20Daily%20Headlines%20-
%20Morning&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CPS210920133&o_e
id=7930I4506489J2B&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C7930I4506489J
2B&oly_enc_id=7930I4506489J2B
Here is my look at the global economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-
economy-september-2021

16. CANADA UNEMPLOYMENT VS OECD
Source - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-unemployment-is-55-higher-than-g7-
average-oecd/

17. BLOG – CRISIS MANAGEMENT
There are emergency management
depts for a reason. So, why has
emergency management not been
subjected to annual audits as part of
scrutinization when it comes to
geopolitical events?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcg
a/crisis-and-emergency-management-
how-best-to-manage-risk

18. AUDIT REPORT / CANADA PANDEMIC
Crisis Management
Auditor/Report
Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the
Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not
appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages, Canada's auditor general says.
In a hard-hitting review released today, Auditor General Karen Hogan took the
country's primary pandemic response agency to task for failures in early warning,
surveillance, risk assessments, data-sharing with the provinces and follow-up on
Canadian travelers who were ordered into quarantine.
"The agency was not adequately prepared to respond to the pandemic, and it
underestimated the potential impact of the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said
the AG's review — one of three that looked at the Liberal government's management
of the COVID-19 crisis, which as of Thursday had killed 22,780 Canadians and
brought the country's economy to its knees.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-pandemic-covid-phac-1.5963895
Here is my work on crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-there-needs-to-be-audited-reports-of-
crisis-emergency-management-policies-and-procedures

19. NEW NORMAL
Here are many links on great work by Mckinsey Group - https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-
leading-through-the-crisis?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-
mck&hlkid=e220291424cb421991e4e6a3b37ecb2d&hctky=11493232&hdpid=b812b692-ed48-496d-a1e4-
9eb133561e6b#
I can add a bit more color in terms of what needs to transpire:
1. Careers in demand are those that are in areas like skills trades or healthcare or Information technology.
2. World continues to grow public sector employment at higher rate than the goods-producing sector.
3. Targeting policies that will support the reshoring of key parts of the supply chain.
4. Better balance between regulations when it comes to supporting getting goods to market.
5. More targeted focus of customers on areas like customer success to better help drive transformation of both the
public and private sectors.
6. Information technology will play a key role in terms of transforming the economy.
7. Fixing issues with global trade including the elimination of protectionism policies.
8. Reforming taxation including transforming tax acts as well as closing-down tax havens.
9. Reforming the housing market to ensure it is more affordable.
10. Reforming the size of government as part of moving to a digital model
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-canada-and-the-world-february-2021-242414576

20. SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_sour
ce=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end consumer.
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

21. SUPPLY CHAIN
Blog – Ecommerce and Retail – Container Shortage and Risks to Supply Chain
Ship-building companies continue to work on building ever larger container vessels, and there’s little
evidence this trend will stop anytime soon.
Today, an estimated 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea, with 60% of that – including virtually
all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly
commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, about US$14 trillion of the
world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box.
In short, without the standardized container, the global supply chain that society depends upon – and that I
study – would not exist.
A recent shortage of these containers is raising costs and snarling supply chains of thousands of products
across the world. The situation highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that,
from a distance, resemble Lego blocks floating on the sea.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/global-shortage-of-shipping-containers-highlights-their-importance-
in-getting-goods-to-amazon-warehouses-store-shelves-and-your-door-in-time-for-christmas/

22. NEXT PANDEMIC
Source - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/g20-leaders-urged-at-
global-health-summit-to-take-bold-action-to-prevent-future-pandemics-
868068233.html
TORONTO, May 21, 2021 /CNW/ - As G20 leaders meet for a Global Health Summit, the global
charity World Animal Protection is urging them to prioritize pandemic prevention and to curb the
global commercial wildlife trade due to its role in this pandemic and previous epidemics.
How come you never demand performance audits from @WHO
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-
value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits

23. RISK MANAGEMENT
Blog – Managing Data as part of Mitigating Geopolitical Risks –
Private and Public Sector
• This ties nicely into my many blogs around how best to
managed data as it relates to geopolitical events:
• Audit and Risk Analytics
https://ibm.ent.box.com/folder/116292560123
• Crisis and Emergency Management -
https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

24. SUMMARY
• More needs to be done to open up the economy in a safe way - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-can-both-the-
public-and-private-sectors-mitigate-geopolitical-risks
• The new normal is here to stay as both public and private sector cannot afford another shutdown that happen with COVID19 -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-the-global-economy-january-2021
• Accounting associations around the world need to push for mandatory audits of risk and crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/interna-audit-operational-and-performance-audit-outlook-2021-and-beyong
• The world is heading for a debt crisis - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-issues-global-debt-crisis-analysis-and-
commentary
• Macro/Micro Indicators for the United States - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-macro-and-micro-indicators-
united-states-february-2021-245192755
• All levels of government need to work together to better support the private sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-fix-competitiveness-through-government-policy
• Trudeau and vaccines-” The doses from India were available due to the generosity of the Indian government and the
cancellation of contracts by countries like South Africa. These American doses aren’t being released out of true friendship with
Canada and Mexico, the Biden administration has been as protectionist on the vaccine front as the Trump administration.” -
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/lilley-canada-gets-extra-doses-but-it-aint-due-to-trudeau

25. REOPENING THE ECONOMY
1. Many countries continue to struggle with the vaccination of its people - https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-
cbdf5b386938
2. Rise of inflation around the globe - https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-
update.html
3. Top re-opening stocks - https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/ready-global-economy-reopening-buy-155953883.html
4. Korea’s exports - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-20/korea-early-exports-surge-as-vaccines-spur-global-
reopening
5. GDP - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-21/charting-the-global-economy-u-s-europe-breaking-free-of-virus
6. Supply chain issues - https://www.ttnews.com/articles/world-economy-suddenly-running-low-everything
7. Job Quality issues - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/job-crisis-in-canada-may-2021
8. Small to medium size enterprises - While very large companies dominate news headlines in the manufacturing space, a new survey taking the pulse
of small firms indicates that nearly two in three expect business growth over the next six months — a night-and-day difference from a year earlier.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-small-medium-size-manufacturers-expecting-growth-paul-young/?published=t
9. Robot orders jumped 20 per cent in North America in the first quarter of 2021 over the same period in 2020, says a new report from the
Association for Advancing Automation (A3).There were spikes in orders from companies in metals (up 86 per cent), life
sciences/pharmaceutical/biomed (up 72 per cent), food and consumer goods (up 32 per cent), and other non-automotive industries (12 per cent)
Link - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-robotic-purchases-expanded-1q21-automation-paul-young/?published=t
10. New Normal
1. Merkel is working with WHO on an early warning Hub.
2. Too many governments are pushing the green agenda at all costs.
3. China continues to be in the driver seat.

26. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning, and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies