Canadian retail sales dropped 0.3% in August, the first decline since March, as higher interest rates start to impact household budgets. Seven of the nine retail subsectors saw sales increases in July, led by food and beverage retailers, while motor vehicle and parts dealers saw the largest decrease. Excluding autos, retail sales in July rose 1%, double expectations. The report suggests Canadians are tightening spending as more face higher mortgage payments and gas prices due to Bank of Canada rate hikes aimed at slowing inflation.
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - January 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Canada Retail and Consumer Spending for the month-ending January 2023
Interest rates along with inflation are leading to sluggish manufacturing and retail sales - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-24/canada-economy-slows-as-higher-rates-crimp-spending?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Higher housing costs continue to plague homeowners across Canada - https://blog.gitnux.com/canadian-home-ownership-statistics/
Eco-Store - https://storeecofriendly.com/
Innovation retail solutions as part of getting to net zero - https://www.lpr.eu/blog/4-sustainable-trends-retail or https://www.ingka.com/news/opinion-well-only-beat-climate-change-if-we-help-small-businesses-cut-emissions-%E2%80%92-and-fast/ or
Future of retail sales - https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/consumer-insights/consumer-trends/future-of-retail/amp/
Retail trends and Stats - https://blog.gitnux.com/retail-statistics/
Top eCommerce Trends - https://www.techdogs.com/td-articles/techno-trends/top-trends-2023-ecommerce
ESG and Sustainability - https://www.mytotalretail.com/article/responsible-sourcing-strategies-must-begin-by-considering-suppliers/ or https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/net-zero-and-energy/big-question-the-state-of-esg-reporting?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18798097116&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=Cj0KCQjwlPWgBhDHARIsAH2xdNfu-lFihlQVDul4rXZaiWOhVWRUMKT5PPIj0iqeV6T6ELLM0iVCUi4aAk7hEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Consumer Spending and Retail Sales – Canada and the World – July 2023
Summary:
Retail sector continues to see slower consumer spending due to higher interest rates.
Port capacity including the impact of strikes have disrupted the supply chain in ports like Vancouver.
Freight costs have edge up in July 2023.
Retails continue to adopt ESG policies as part of managing their product, facilities, and overall supply chain.
Additional sources and links:
Canada Retail sales - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/retail-sales-starting-to-stall-in-canada-as-higher-rates-bite?srnd=economics-v2#xj4y7vzkg
Packaging / ESG - https://www.packaging-gateway.com/news/ahlstrom-creates-sustainable-stationery-packaging/
United Kingdom sales - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-s-hot-june-delivers-unexpected-boost-for-retail-sales-1.1948717
Cloud and Retail - https://www.retail-insight-network.com/dashboards/filings/cloud-mentions-retail-industry/
Supply chain and global factors - https://www.scmr.com/article/supply-chains-need-to-adjust-now-to-new-global-factors
Retail Trends - https://www.scmr.com/article/supply-chains-need-to-adjust-now-to-new-global-factors
Blog - IoT Devices Are Changing the Global Emissions Game - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_iot-devices-are-changing-the-global-emissions-activity-7088121500288888832-MBof?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
AI - https://www.indianretailer.com/article/technology/digital-trends/ai-is-the-future-of-retail.a6927
Automation - https://www.netguru.com/blog/automation-in-retail
Warehouse automation - https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2023/07/21/6-ways-ai-and-robotics-are-revolutionizing-warehouse-security/70793/
Freight costs - https://www.freightos.com/freight-resources/shipping-delays-and-cost-increases/
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - May 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary – May 2023
Summary:
Retail sector continues to face many challenges. High inflation continues to eat into retail sales volumes. Consumers continue to look for bargains as part of dealing with high inflation.
Technology continues to drive the retail experience like the metaverse.
ESG reporting is driving more brand awareness by consumers. Retailers continue to look at ways managed their various supply chains as part of adopting ESG policies and reporting.
Data and AI continues to play a key role with retail sector.
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - United States - September 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
The pace of sales at U.S. retailers was unchanged in September from August as rising prices for rent and food chipped away at money available for other things.
Retail sales were flat last month, down from a revised 0.4% growth in August, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Retail sales fell 0.4% in July.
Source - https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Retail-sales-flat-in-September-with-inflation-hot-17508899.php
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in May as motor vehicle purchases declined amid rampant shortages, and record high gasoline prices pulled spending away from other goods.
The first drop in sales in five months reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday also suggested that high inflation was starting to hurt demand. It followed in the wake of major retailers like Walmart and Target cutting their profit forecasts because of cost pressures.
The weak retail sales did not divert the Federal Reserve from its aggressive monetary policy tightening path to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The U.S. central bank raised its policy interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the biggest hike since 1994. [nL1N2Y12O3
Source – https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-retail-sales-unexpectedly-fall-125013289.html
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - February 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Canada Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary – April 2023
Summary:
The data published by Statistics Canada showed on Friday that Retail Sales declined by 0.2% monthly following January's 1.4% increase. This reading came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.6%.
Further details of the publication revealed that Retail Sales ex-Autos fell by 0.7% in the same period.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-retail-sales-decline-by-02-in-february-vs-06-expected-202304211235
Additional Links:
Consumer spending outlook - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-21/retail-sales-fall-in-canada-with-higher-rates-pinching-consumers?srnd=all#xj4y7vzkg
Household debt - https://financialpost.com/globe-newswire/canadians-on-economy-half-say-the-worst-is-yet-to-come
Food and wage growth - https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boom-global-bust-column-don-pittis-1.6815554?cmp=rss
Commodities - https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/insights-display-adp/global/en/wealth-management/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2023/latest-20042023.html?caasID=CAAS-ActivityStream
Gasoline prices continue to see ups and downs - https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-gas-prices-set-to-drop-again-here-s-when-that-will-happen-1.5986398
ESG - https://blogs.sap.com/2023/04/20/why-sustainability-should-still-matter-to-midsize-retailers-during-a-recession/ or https://www.winsightgrocerybusiness.com/retailers/10-ways-grocers-are-showing-their-environmental-friendliness-earth-day-2023
Data and Analytics and Retail - https://m.vingle.net/posts/5720306 or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/top-ten-trends-and-practices-that-will-shape-e-commerce-in-2023/
• Sales at autos & parts dealers continued to grow, rising 0.8% m/m even after January's upward revision to 4.6% vs. (5.7% reported earlier). Growth was concentrated in auto dealers, while sales in automotive parts & tire stores declined. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.2% m/m.
• Sales at gasoline stations were up 5.3% m/m, but most of it is explained by hefty price growth, with gasoline prices up by 6.6% m/m. Building materials retailers saw a gain of 0.9% m/m in February.
• Sales in the "control group", which exclude the above categories and are used in calculating personal consumption expenditures (and GDP), were down by 1.2% m/m. However, January's sales were revised to stronger +6.7% m/m from the advance reading of +4.8% m/m.
• Within the group, the biggest contributors to growth were sales at food services & drinking places (+2.5% m/m), miscellaneous stores retailers sporting goods (+1.9% m/m), hobby, book & music stores (+1.7% m/m), clothing & accessory stores (+1.1% m/m).
• The fortunes of non-store retailers reversed this month with a decline of 3.7%, but that's after an upwardly revised gain of 20.6% m/m in January (from +14.5% m/m reported earlier). Another contributor to the decline were health & personal care stores (-1.8% m/m) while all other categories reported marginal losses.
Source - https://economics.td.com/us-retail-sales
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - January 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Canada Retail and Consumer Spending for the month-ending January 2023
Interest rates along with inflation are leading to sluggish manufacturing and retail sales - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-24/canada-economy-slows-as-higher-rates-crimp-spending?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Higher housing costs continue to plague homeowners across Canada - https://blog.gitnux.com/canadian-home-ownership-statistics/
Eco-Store - https://storeecofriendly.com/
Innovation retail solutions as part of getting to net zero - https://www.lpr.eu/blog/4-sustainable-trends-retail or https://www.ingka.com/news/opinion-well-only-beat-climate-change-if-we-help-small-businesses-cut-emissions-%E2%80%92-and-fast/ or
Future of retail sales - https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/consumer-insights/consumer-trends/future-of-retail/amp/
Retail trends and Stats - https://blog.gitnux.com/retail-statistics/
Top eCommerce Trends - https://www.techdogs.com/td-articles/techno-trends/top-trends-2023-ecommerce
ESG and Sustainability - https://www.mytotalretail.com/article/responsible-sourcing-strategies-must-begin-by-considering-suppliers/ or https://impact.economist.com/sustainability/net-zero-and-energy/big-question-the-state-of-esg-reporting?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18798097116&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=Cj0KCQjwlPWgBhDHARIsAH2xdNfu-lFihlQVDul4rXZaiWOhVWRUMKT5PPIj0iqeV6T6ELLM0iVCUi4aAk7hEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Consumer Spending and Retail Sales – Canada and the World – July 2023
Summary:
Retail sector continues to see slower consumer spending due to higher interest rates.
Port capacity including the impact of strikes have disrupted the supply chain in ports like Vancouver.
Freight costs have edge up in July 2023.
Retails continue to adopt ESG policies as part of managing their product, facilities, and overall supply chain.
Additional sources and links:
Canada Retail sales - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/retail-sales-starting-to-stall-in-canada-as-higher-rates-bite?srnd=economics-v2#xj4y7vzkg
Packaging / ESG - https://www.packaging-gateway.com/news/ahlstrom-creates-sustainable-stationery-packaging/
United Kingdom sales - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-s-hot-june-delivers-unexpected-boost-for-retail-sales-1.1948717
Cloud and Retail - https://www.retail-insight-network.com/dashboards/filings/cloud-mentions-retail-industry/
Supply chain and global factors - https://www.scmr.com/article/supply-chains-need-to-adjust-now-to-new-global-factors
Retail Trends - https://www.scmr.com/article/supply-chains-need-to-adjust-now-to-new-global-factors
Blog - IoT Devices Are Changing the Global Emissions Game - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_iot-devices-are-changing-the-global-emissions-activity-7088121500288888832-MBof?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
AI - https://www.indianretailer.com/article/technology/digital-trends/ai-is-the-future-of-retail.a6927
Automation - https://www.netguru.com/blog/automation-in-retail
Warehouse automation - https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2023/07/21/6-ways-ai-and-robotics-are-revolutionizing-warehouse-security/70793/
Freight costs - https://www.freightos.com/freight-resources/shipping-delays-and-cost-increases/
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - May 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary – May 2023
Summary:
Retail sector continues to face many challenges. High inflation continues to eat into retail sales volumes. Consumers continue to look for bargains as part of dealing with high inflation.
Technology continues to drive the retail experience like the metaverse.
ESG reporting is driving more brand awareness by consumers. Retailers continue to look at ways managed their various supply chains as part of adopting ESG policies and reporting.
Data and AI continues to play a key role with retail sector.
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - United States - September 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
The pace of sales at U.S. retailers was unchanged in September from August as rising prices for rent and food chipped away at money available for other things.
Retail sales were flat last month, down from a revised 0.4% growth in August, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Retail sales fell 0.4% in July.
Source - https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/article/Retail-sales-flat-in-September-with-inflation-hot-17508899.php
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in May as motor vehicle purchases declined amid rampant shortages, and record high gasoline prices pulled spending away from other goods.
The first drop in sales in five months reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday also suggested that high inflation was starting to hurt demand. It followed in the wake of major retailers like Walmart and Target cutting their profit forecasts because of cost pressures.
The weak retail sales did not divert the Federal Reserve from its aggressive monetary policy tightening path to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The U.S. central bank raised its policy interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the biggest hike since 1994. [nL1N2Y12O3
Source – https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-retail-sales-unexpectedly-fall-125013289.html
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - February 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Canada Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary – April 2023
Summary:
The data published by Statistics Canada showed on Friday that Retail Sales declined by 0.2% monthly following January's 1.4% increase. This reading came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.6%.
Further details of the publication revealed that Retail Sales ex-Autos fell by 0.7% in the same period.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-retail-sales-decline-by-02-in-february-vs-06-expected-202304211235
Additional Links:
Consumer spending outlook - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-21/retail-sales-fall-in-canada-with-higher-rates-pinching-consumers?srnd=all#xj4y7vzkg
Household debt - https://financialpost.com/globe-newswire/canadians-on-economy-half-say-the-worst-is-yet-to-come
Food and wage growth - https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/boom-global-bust-column-don-pittis-1.6815554?cmp=rss
Commodities - https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/insights-display-adp/global/en/wealth-management/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/daily/2023/latest-20042023.html?caasID=CAAS-ActivityStream
Gasoline prices continue to see ups and downs - https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-gas-prices-set-to-drop-again-here-s-when-that-will-happen-1.5986398
ESG - https://blogs.sap.com/2023/04/20/why-sustainability-should-still-matter-to-midsize-retailers-during-a-recession/ or https://www.winsightgrocerybusiness.com/retailers/10-ways-grocers-are-showing-their-environmental-friendliness-earth-day-2023
Data and Analytics and Retail - https://m.vingle.net/posts/5720306 or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/voices/top-ten-trends-and-practices-that-will-shape-e-commerce-in-2023/
• Sales at autos & parts dealers continued to grow, rising 0.8% m/m even after January's upward revision to 4.6% vs. (5.7% reported earlier). Growth was concentrated in auto dealers, while sales in automotive parts & tire stores declined. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.2% m/m.
• Sales at gasoline stations were up 5.3% m/m, but most of it is explained by hefty price growth, with gasoline prices up by 6.6% m/m. Building materials retailers saw a gain of 0.9% m/m in February.
• Sales in the "control group", which exclude the above categories and are used in calculating personal consumption expenditures (and GDP), were down by 1.2% m/m. However, January's sales were revised to stronger +6.7% m/m from the advance reading of +4.8% m/m.
• Within the group, the biggest contributors to growth were sales at food services & drinking places (+2.5% m/m), miscellaneous stores retailers sporting goods (+1.9% m/m), hobby, book & music stores (+1.7% m/m), clothing & accessory stores (+1.1% m/m).
• The fortunes of non-store retailers reversed this month with a decline of 3.7%, but that's after an upwardly revised gain of 20.6% m/m in January (from +14.5% m/m reported earlier). Another contributor to the decline were health & personal care stores (-1.8% m/m) while all other categories reported marginal losses.
Source - https://economics.td.com/us-retail-sales
Summary:
Retail sales were up 2.1% to $57.2 billion in August, led by higher sales at food and beverage stores (+4.8%), gasoline stations (+3.8%), and clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.9%).
Sales increased in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 94.6% of retail trade.
Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers—were up 2.7%.
In volume terms, retail sales increased 1.4% in August.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211022/dq211022a-eng.htm https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/966f8e75-adb4-492b-8c14-924733071bb7/
1. Food costs - https://o.canada.com/news/local-news/lower-income-families-most-likely-to-be-pinched-by-rising-food-prices-supply-chain-problems
2. Rising oil and gas prices - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/rising-oil-prices-wont-solve-canadas-oil-and-gas-problems
3. Rise of propane costs - https://granthshala.com/skyrocketing-propane-prices-could-mean-trouble-for-some-canadians-this-winter/
4. Inflation has hit a 20-year high - https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/canada-inflation-highest-decades-2021
5. Supply chain - https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/sector-grows-manufacturing-dented-supply-091509523.html?src=rss
6. Global inflation - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/absolutely-concern-around-the-globe-over-inflation-accenture-ceo-144813190.html
7. Jobs and climate change - https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/10/21/news/more-880000-canadian-jobs-vulnerable-global-clean-energy-transition
8. Rent and Wage - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2021/10/cfib/
9. Pandemic - https://thecanadian.news/2021/10/21/how-to-lead-the-retail-trade-in-pandemic/
10. Retail innovation - https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2021/10/22/five-retail-technology-trends-from-digital-fitting-rooms-to-sustainable-shopping
Retail sales were down 0.6% to $56.6 billion in September. The decline was led by lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-1.6%) as new car dealer sales (-2.8%) continued to struggle amid global supply shortages for semiconductor chips.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211119/dq211119a-eng.htm
Summary:
Key Takeaway: Retail sales posted a solid gain in October and pointed to another increase in November. Consumers appear ready, willing, and able to spend, though higher prices are taking a bite out of volumes as inflation erodes purchasing power. And, tighter restrictions pose additional uncertainty to close out the year.
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f75364d1-4d9a-4aa1-b6b2-573750da8c6a/
1. Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-retail-sales-jump-1-6-in-october-271640095151
2. Consumer spending – https://economics.td.com/ca-quarterly-economic-forecast
3. Data and AI - https://www.innovatingcanada.ca/industry/using-ai-and-big-data-to-bring-retailers-into-the-digital-age/
4. Innovation - https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2021/12/21/five-retail-technology-innovations-that-wont-be-big-in-2022
5. eCommerce - https://www.cantechletter.com/2021/12/take-a-look-at-these-canadian-e-commerce-stocks/
6. Policy - https://financialpost.com/opinion/opinion-leaving-2021-longstanding-problems-could-be-addressed-in-2022
7. Supply chain - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-canada-surge-sign-134544714.html
8. Inflation - https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economy-inflation-trends-2022/
9. Furniture - https://www.retailcouncil.org/media-mentions/furniture-price-inflation-couldve-been-controlled/
10. Housing - https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/covid-19-intensified-ongoing-housing-market-trends-rbc/320583
What is up with the Stock Market for WE - May 5 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Stock Market Analysis for the weekending May 5, 2023
Summary:
Overall, markets have moved higher this year, with the Canadian TSX up over 5%, S&P 500 up over 7% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq higher by over 15%, but the rally thus far may be fragile. The equity leadership in the market is narrow, with quality growth and defensive sectors leading the way. Parts of the market that are more sensitive to economic growth seem to be lagging, including cyclical sectors like energy and financials, and small-cap stocks, which tend to underperform in a slowing economy. Canadian and U.S. government bond yields have also moved lower since their recent peaks in early March, perhaps as investors seek safe-haven assets and as growth concerns rise.
After a nice start to the year, markets are now facing the impact of the Fed's and Bank of Canada's rapid rate-hiking cycles: a tightening banking sector and a potentially slowing economy. We would expect market volatility to continue in the weeks ahead, especially if the economy heads into an economic downturn or the banking system requires more intervention. However, we believe that last year's 25% fall in the S&P 500 captured some of the mild recession that may lie ahead.
It is important to remember that the market cycle and economic cycle are distinct, as markets tend to be forward-looking. Thus, as the economy heads towards its bottom, financial markets may start looking to a period of recovery ahead. After an extended bear-market period over the past 16 months, we believe opportunities could form in the both the equity and bond markets as the economy recovers especially given that, historically, these periods can offer outsized returns in the years ahead.
Source - https://www.edwardjones.ca/ca-en/market-news-insights/stock-market-news/stock-market-weekly-update
What is up with the Stock Market for WE - May 5 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Stock Market Analysis for the weekending May 5, 2023
Summary:
Overall, markets have moved higher this year, with the Canadian TSX up over 5%, S&P 500 up over 7% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq higher by over 15%, but the rally thus far may be fragile. The equity leadership in the market is narrow, with quality growth and defensive sectors leading the way. Parts of the market that are more sensitive to economic growth seem to be lagging, including cyclical sectors like energy and financials, and small-cap stocks, which tend to underperform in a slowing economy. Canadian and U.S. government bond yields have also moved lower since their recent peaks in early March, perhaps as investors seek safe-haven assets and as growth concerns rise.
After a nice start to the year, markets are now facing the impact of the Fed's and Bank of Canada's rapid rate-hiking cycles: a tightening banking sector and a potentially slowing economy. We would expect market volatility to continue in the weeks ahead, especially if the economy heads into an economic downturn or the banking system requires more intervention. However, we believe that last year's 25% fall in the S&P 500 captured some of the mild recession that may lie ahead.
It is important to remember that the market cycle and economic cycle are distinct, as markets tend to be forward-looking. Thus, as the economy heads towards its bottom, financial markets may start looking to a period of recovery ahead. After an extended bear-market period over the past 16 months, we believe opportunities could form in the both the equity and bond markets as the economy recovers especially given that, historically, these periods can offer outsized returns in the years ahead.
Source - https://www.edwardjones.ca/ca-en/market-news-insights/stock-market-news/stock-market-weekly-update
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - United States and the World - March 2023...paul young cpa, cga
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending Outlook – United States and the World – March 2023
Durable Goods Summary:
New orders for durable goods fell in February on transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported today.
Orders slid 1 percent to $268.4 billion last month, according to a monthly report. It was the third decline in the past four months and followed a revised fall of 5 percent in January.
Excluding transportation, orders were almost unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.5 percent.
The transportation category fell 2.8 percent to $89.4 billion, also the third decline in the past four months.
Within transportation, orders for commercial aircraft and parts slipped 6.6 percent to $11.2 billion. Demand for commercial air travel has rebounded from COVID-19 lows. Still, aircraft maker Boeing Co. continues to confront manufacturing issues.
Orders for defense aircraft and parts declined 11 percent to $5.4 billion.
Source - https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/march/durable-goods-orders-decline-on-transportation/
Capital spending outlook for 2023 - https://mishtalk.com/economics/durable-goods-new-orders-decline-for-the-second-time-in-three-months
Green spending top one trillion dollars in 2022 - https://www.corporateknights.com/category-finance/global-clean-energy-investing-tops-us1-trillion-for-first-time-ever/
Boosting productivity through digital adoption - https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemckendrick/2023/02/27/digital-technology-may-give--productivity-the-boost-it-needs/?sh=3e6da444fefe
Input costs continue to see wild swings - https://www.tradealgo.com/news/march-saw-u-s-economic-growth-accelerate-to-a-10-month-high
ESG and Sustainability adoption will continue drive key investments with both human capital and business capital as part of getting to net zero - https://www.phillipinvest.com.my/how-will-esg-and-energy-transition-evolve-on-the-path-towards-net-zero/
Agriculture and green adoption - https://green.org/2023/03/24/agricultural-tech-adoption-under-climate-change/
Green construction - https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/green-technology-in-construction-market-share-by-2031-2023-03-24
Stats Canada
Retail sales declined 2.1% to $53.8 billion in May. The largest declines occurred at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-11.3%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.4%). During the month of May, many retailers continued to face closures due to the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210723/dq210723a-eng.htm#:~:text=Retail%20sales%20declined,COVID-19%C2%A0pandemic.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210723/dq210723a-eng.htm
1. June 2021 retail sales - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-23/canada-retail-sales-jumped-in-june-with-virus-cases-receding?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
2. Consumer debt - https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/07/19/2264672/0/en/MNP-Consumer-Debt-Index-Nearly-half-of-Canadians-doubtful-they-can-cover-living-expenses-this-year-without-going-into-further-debt-highest-level-in-three-years.html - (Nearly ½ of all Cdns are doubtful they can cover living expenses without going into debt)
3. Same-day delivery / Uber - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/garage-and-dynamite-partner-with-uber-to-provide-customers-with-same-day-delivery-in-southern-ontario-841231489.html
4. Grocers and greenhouses - https://www.canadianpackaging.com/general/canadian-grocery-stores-adding-greenhouses-the-rise-of-the-growcer-169731/
5. Small format grocery stores - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2021/07/small-format-grocery-stores-are-the-future-in-canada-report-experts/
6. eCommerce - https://www.emarketer.com/content/canada-ecommerce-forecast-2021
7. Closures - https://www.styledemocracy.com/the-running-list-of-retail-store-closures-and-bankruptcies-in-2021/
8. Robots - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/grubhub-turns-to-yandex-for-robotic-food-delivery-on-campus-1.1625919
9. Employment - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-retailers-restaurants-offer-perks-to-lure-workers-in-hot-job/
10. VR and AR - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2021/07/virtual-and-augmented-reality-technology-to-entirely-change-the-retail-shopping-experience-in-canada-interview-with-retail-prophet-doug-stephens/
Cost of Living (Inflation) - United States - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
entrenched in the economy. That will likely push the Federal Reserve to extend an aggressive series of interest-rate hikes and adds to political problems for the White House and Democrats.
The consumer price index increased 8.6 per cent from a year earlier in a broad-based advance, Labor Department data showed Friday. The widely followed inflation gauge rose 1 per cent from a month earlier, topping all estimates. Shelter, food and gas were the largest contributors.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.6 per cent from the prior month and 6 per cent from a year ago, also above forecasts.
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-unexpectedly-accelerates-to-40-year-high-1.1777105
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - United States and the World - April 2023...paul young cpa, cga
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending Analysis and Commentary – April 2023
Summary:
The Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods surged by much more than expected in March amid a substantial rebound in orders for transportation equipment.
The report said durable goods orders spiked by 3.2 percent in March after tumbling by a revised 1.2 percent in February.
Economists had expected durable goods orders to climb by 0.8 percent compared to the 1.0 percent slump that had been reported for the previous month.
Excluding the jump in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.3 percent in March after falling by 0.3 percent in February. Ex-transportation orders were expected to dip by 0.2 percent.
Source – https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-durable-goods-orders-surge-much-more-than-expected-in-march
Blog – United States Manufacturing Sector Analysis and Commentary – March 2023
Summary:
U.S. manufacturing-sector orders fell again in February, driven again by a decline in transportation equipment and manufactured durable goods orders, albeit at a slower pace than in January.
New orders for manufactured goods fell 0.7% in February on month to $536.4 billion, compared with a revised 2.1% fall in January, data from the Commerce Department showed Tuesday.
The reading is a touch weaker than the 0.6% decrease expected by economists in a poll by The Wall Street Journal.
The fall was driven by a 2.8% drop in orders for transportation equipment, the data showed. Nondefense aircraft and parts orders once again dropped, by 6.6% in February, after a 56.3% dip in January, although the figures came after a hefty rise at the end of 2022. Even excluding transportation, total orders still fell 0.3%, a swing from a 0.8% rise in January.
New orders for manufactured durable goods--those meant to last at least three years--fell 1.0% in February, in line with preliminary estimate and after a 5.0% increase in December. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods tumbled 0.4%.
Surveys to manufacturers suggest that despite recent moderation of the fall in orders, the pace of declines could accelerate again.
ISM purchasing managers index showed Monday that new orders at U.S. manufacturers contracted again in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020.
Source - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/U-S-Factory-Orders-Fell-Again-in-February-Though-at-Slower-Pace--43426768/
PMI has fallen below 50 - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-46-3-march-2023-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301787309.html
United States factory orders decline in February 2023 - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/U-S-Factory-Orders-Fell-Again-in-February-Though-at-Slower-Pace--43426768/
Nearshoring to Mexico continues to pick up steam. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nearshoring-bets-boost-mexican-real-estate-transport-shares-2023-04-04/
Producer price index decline in February 2023 - https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-producer-prices-unexpectedly-fall-february-2023-03-15/
United States continues to look at better ways to manage supply chains like critical metals - https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/niocorp-achieves-processing-breakthrough-in-demonstration-plant-testing-of-niobium-and-titanium-production-19e70748
Broadband spending is expected to decline in 2023 - https://www.benton.org/headlines/wireless-capital-expenditures-north-america-poised-plunge-10-20-percent-2023
Market volatility continues to drive asset management decisions - https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/economic-news.html
Government continues to address climate change with more spending in the green and clean economy - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/04/clean-energy-government-investment-spending/
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – What is next for Retail Sector and Consumer Spending – August 2023
Despite months of predictions for a global recession, consumer activity and corporate earnings are holding up surprisingly well. We believe that global long-term interest rates probably peaked in October last year, and we are now observing encouraging signs of the start of corporate earnings re-acceleration.
Clearly, we are not completely out of the woods yet. Inflation is still sticky and further rate hikes are expected over the next few months, but when we look under the hood at the companies we research, resilience stands out.
This global resilience has been surprising to all of us. In Europe, consumers seemed to sail through a severe energy crisis last winter, and in the US, consumer activity in both discretionary and staples has far exceeded most expectations at the beginning of the year.
https://www.firstlinks.com.au/global-consumer-corporate-resilience-surprises-everyone
Links and sources:
Supply chain - https://www.waffleinsurance.com/resources/insuranpedia/how-do-loss-prevention-services-address-potential-risks-arising-from-supply-chain-disruptions
Fashion and their new business model - https://www.esginvestor.net/fast-fashion-race-losing-speed/
Retailing and Technology - https://www.retaildive.com/news/retail-industry-AI-adoption/691426/
Generative AI - https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2023/generative-ai-helps-auto-fill-b2b-complexities-streamlining-communications/
Logistics - https://enable.com/blog/top-challenges-facing-the-distribution-industry-how-to-overcome-them
Coles - https://www.foodmag.com.au/coles-to-partner-with-suppliers-to-set-emission-reduction-targets-by-2027/
How to best manage data - https://www.demandtalk.com/insights/data/big-data/the-power-of-retail-data-analytics-understanding-its-role-and-the-different-types/
Valdi - https://www.forbes.com/sites/walterloeb/2023/08/21/why-aldi-acquisition-of-winn-dixie-and-harveys-supermarket-is-a-big-win/?sh=6c90ed4445b9
Partnerships - https://www.verdictfoodservice.com/comment/food-service-retail-partnerships/
Sustainable shopping - https://retail-focus.co.uk/shopping-for-sustainability/
Automation - https://www.retailcustomerexperience.com/articles/reasons-why-retailers-are-marching-fast-toward-automation/
Robotics - https://www.tbsnews.net/world/global-economy/retailers-turn-robots-cost-inflation-fight-543282
Social governance and retailing - https://www.fashionabc.org/why-the-fashion-industry-has-to-balance-profit-with-esg-and-purpose/
Summary:
• The May ISM manufacturing index registered 56.1, topping expectations of a 54.5 print. The index rose 0.7 percentage points from the April reading of 55.4.
• New orders rose by 1.6 percentage points to 55.1, while new export orders rose by 0.2 percentage points to 52.9.
• The backlog of orders sub-index came in at 58.7, rising 2.7 percentage points from April's 56.0 print.
• The production index increased 0.6 percentage points to 54.2 while the employment index fell 1.3 percentage points to 49.6.
• The supplier deliveries sub-index fell to 65.7 from 67.2 in April. The sub-index continues to reflect difficulties in improving delivery rates due to production issues related to the pandemic.
• 15 of 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in May. Growth was led by Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Source - https://economics.td.com/us-ism-manufacturing-index
Retailers will continue face many challenges due to supply chain disruption and high inflation
More and more retailers look at ways to improve the customer experience
A new era of retailing that will include augment and virtual reality, end of the large shopping malls, changes to storefront, and other automation and AI solutions
Summary:
The U.S. trade deficit shrunk in April by the most on record in dollar terms, reflecting a drop in the value of imports amid COVID lockdowns in China while exports climbed.
The gap in goods and services trade narrowed $20.6 billion, or 19.1%, to $87.1 billion, Commerce Department data showed June 7. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for an $89.5 billion deficit. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.
Imports dropped in April as factory activity in China fell to the lowest level since February 2020 amid strict lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19. While manufacturing in the country has improved since, the measures still are straining already tenuous global supply chains, especially when coupled with Russia’s war in Ukraine
Source - https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trade-deficit-narrows-most-record-muted-china-imports
Cost of Living (Inflation) - United States - May 2022 (incl PPI).pptxpaul young cpa, cga
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy. That will likely push the Federal Reserve to extend an aggressive series of interest-rate hikes and adds to political problems for the White House and Democrats.
The consumer price index increased 8.6 per cent from a year earlier in a broad-based advance, Labor Department data showed Friday. The widely followed inflation gauge rose 1 per cent from a month earlier, topping all estimates. Shelter, food and gas were the largest contributors.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.6 per cent from the prior month and 6 per cent from a year ago, also above forecasts.
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-unexpectedly-accelerates-to-40-year-high-1.1777105
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - August 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Consumers continue to face higher prices and supply issues
Federal government has decided to increase both the carbon and payroll taxes https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/media/cfib-statement-on-the-start-of-small-business-week
Skills gap issues continue to plague the retail sector https://www.cimmigrationnews.com/ontario-retailers-worried-not-enough-workers-to-fill-jobs-heading-towards-christmas-season/
Logistics, warehousing, and distribution sector continue to look at ways to reduce their emissions - https://www.rcgauto.com/blog/technology-is-changing-the-trucking-industry/
More needs to be done to promote local supply sourcing by retailers - https://montrealgazette.com/shopping-essentials/gift-guide/how-to-support-small-local-businesses-on-amazon-canada
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221021/dq221021a-eng.htm
What is up with the Stock Market for WE - April 22, 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog - Blog - Stock Market Analysis for the WE April 21 2023
Summary:
Stocks closed slightly higher on Friday afternoon as investors digested a final slate of corporate earnings and fresh economic data to close out the week.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 23.99 points, or 0.07%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.11%.
All three major averages closed the week lower. The Dow had its worst week in six weeks, snapping a 4-week win streak
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html or https://finance.yahoo.com/stocks-end-week-lower-amid-earnings-strong-economic-data-stock-market-news-today-180717344.html or https://finance.yahoo.com/stocks-end-week-lower-amid-earnings-strong-economic-data-stock-market-news-today-180717344.html
Summary:
New orders for U.S.-made goods fell slightly more than expected in December, but manufacturing remains supported by businesses replenishing inventories.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that factory orders decreased 0.4% in December. Data for November was revised higher to show orders increasing 1.8% instead of 1.6% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders slipping 0.2%. Orders increased 16.9% in 2021.
Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the economy, is being underpinned by businesses rebuilding inventories.
Source - https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-02-03/u-s-factory-orders-fall-in-december-shipments-rise-further
1. USA Manufacturing – https://www.yakimaherald.com/reshoring-manufacturing-might-be-washingtons-future/article_453dc45d-b050-58a8-9bf9-27a7d6a0c516.html
2. Manufacturing optimization - https://www.energy.gov/eere/amo/articles/department-energy-awards-28-million-10-projects-will-develop-emerging
3. AI and manufacturing - https://research.aimultiple.com/manufacturing-ai/
4. Robotics - https://austincountynewsonline.com/a-record-number-of-robots-joined-american-workforce-in-2021-amid-covid-labor-crunch/
5. Shortages - https://shopmetaltech.com/industry-update/u-s-manufacturing-grew-in-january-but-remains-plagued-by-bottlenecks.html
6. Food Production - https://manufacturingglobal.com/ai-and-automation/expect-to-see-these-food-manufacturing-trends-in-2022
7. Semiconductors - https://rollcall.com/2022/02/04/cost-to-rebuild-u-s-semiconductor-manufacturing-will-keep-growing/
8. PMI - https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/manufacturing-pmi-829
9. Future of manufacturing - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484370-future-of-manufacturing
10. Automotive - https://www.tti.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye/categories/industry/me-staff-20220204.html
11. Farm - https://www.tti.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye/categories/industry/me-staff-20220204.html
12. Automation - https://www.bmc.com/blogs/it-automation-trends/
13. Raw material - https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2022/02/419_21021.html?fa
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Jul 22 (Reuters) - Canadian retail sales rose 2.2% in May from April at C$62.25 billion ($48.26 billion), on higher sales at gasoline stations, as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Sales were seen to grow 0.3% in June, the agency said in a flash estimate.
Sales increased in eight of 11 subsectors, representing 86.8% of retail trade. In volume terms, retail sales were up 0.4%.
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-may-retail-sales-up-2.2-seen-up-0.3-in-june
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
More Related Content
Similar to Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptx
Summary:
Retail sales were up 2.1% to $57.2 billion in August, led by higher sales at food and beverage stores (+4.8%), gasoline stations (+3.8%), and clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.9%).
Sales increased in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 94.6% of retail trade.
Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers—were up 2.7%.
In volume terms, retail sales increased 1.4% in August.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211022/dq211022a-eng.htm https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/966f8e75-adb4-492b-8c14-924733071bb7/
1. Food costs - https://o.canada.com/news/local-news/lower-income-families-most-likely-to-be-pinched-by-rising-food-prices-supply-chain-problems
2. Rising oil and gas prices - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/rising-oil-prices-wont-solve-canadas-oil-and-gas-problems
3. Rise of propane costs - https://granthshala.com/skyrocketing-propane-prices-could-mean-trouble-for-some-canadians-this-winter/
4. Inflation has hit a 20-year high - https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/canada-inflation-highest-decades-2021
5. Supply chain - https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/sector-grows-manufacturing-dented-supply-091509523.html?src=rss
6. Global inflation - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/absolutely-concern-around-the-globe-over-inflation-accenture-ceo-144813190.html
7. Jobs and climate change - https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/10/21/news/more-880000-canadian-jobs-vulnerable-global-clean-energy-transition
8. Rent and Wage - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2021/10/cfib/
9. Pandemic - https://thecanadian.news/2021/10/21/how-to-lead-the-retail-trade-in-pandemic/
10. Retail innovation - https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2021/10/22/five-retail-technology-trends-from-digital-fitting-rooms-to-sustainable-shopping
Retail sales were down 0.6% to $56.6 billion in September. The decline was led by lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers (-1.6%) as new car dealer sales (-2.8%) continued to struggle amid global supply shortages for semiconductor chips.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211119/dq211119a-eng.htm
Summary:
Key Takeaway: Retail sales posted a solid gain in October and pointed to another increase in November. Consumers appear ready, willing, and able to spend, though higher prices are taking a bite out of volumes as inflation erodes purchasing power. And, tighter restrictions pose additional uncertainty to close out the year.
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f75364d1-4d9a-4aa1-b6b2-573750da8c6a/
1. Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/canada-retail-sales-jump-1-6-in-october-271640095151
2. Consumer spending – https://economics.td.com/ca-quarterly-economic-forecast
3. Data and AI - https://www.innovatingcanada.ca/industry/using-ai-and-big-data-to-bring-retailers-into-the-digital-age/
4. Innovation - https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2021/12/21/five-retail-technology-innovations-that-wont-be-big-in-2022
5. eCommerce - https://www.cantechletter.com/2021/12/take-a-look-at-these-canadian-e-commerce-stocks/
6. Policy - https://financialpost.com/opinion/opinion-leaving-2021-longstanding-problems-could-be-addressed-in-2022
7. Supply chain - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-canada-surge-sign-134544714.html
8. Inflation - https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economy-inflation-trends-2022/
9. Furniture - https://www.retailcouncil.org/media-mentions/furniture-price-inflation-couldve-been-controlled/
10. Housing - https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/covid-19-intensified-ongoing-housing-market-trends-rbc/320583
What is up with the Stock Market for WE - May 5 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Stock Market Analysis for the weekending May 5, 2023
Summary:
Overall, markets have moved higher this year, with the Canadian TSX up over 5%, S&P 500 up over 7% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq higher by over 15%, but the rally thus far may be fragile. The equity leadership in the market is narrow, with quality growth and defensive sectors leading the way. Parts of the market that are more sensitive to economic growth seem to be lagging, including cyclical sectors like energy and financials, and small-cap stocks, which tend to underperform in a slowing economy. Canadian and U.S. government bond yields have also moved lower since their recent peaks in early March, perhaps as investors seek safe-haven assets and as growth concerns rise.
After a nice start to the year, markets are now facing the impact of the Fed's and Bank of Canada's rapid rate-hiking cycles: a tightening banking sector and a potentially slowing economy. We would expect market volatility to continue in the weeks ahead, especially if the economy heads into an economic downturn or the banking system requires more intervention. However, we believe that last year's 25% fall in the S&P 500 captured some of the mild recession that may lie ahead.
It is important to remember that the market cycle and economic cycle are distinct, as markets tend to be forward-looking. Thus, as the economy heads towards its bottom, financial markets may start looking to a period of recovery ahead. After an extended bear-market period over the past 16 months, we believe opportunities could form in the both the equity and bond markets as the economy recovers especially given that, historically, these periods can offer outsized returns in the years ahead.
Source - https://www.edwardjones.ca/ca-en/market-news-insights/stock-market-news/stock-market-weekly-update
What is up with the Stock Market for WE - May 5 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Stock Market Analysis for the weekending May 5, 2023
Summary:
Overall, markets have moved higher this year, with the Canadian TSX up over 5%, S&P 500 up over 7% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq higher by over 15%, but the rally thus far may be fragile. The equity leadership in the market is narrow, with quality growth and defensive sectors leading the way. Parts of the market that are more sensitive to economic growth seem to be lagging, including cyclical sectors like energy and financials, and small-cap stocks, which tend to underperform in a slowing economy. Canadian and U.S. government bond yields have also moved lower since their recent peaks in early March, perhaps as investors seek safe-haven assets and as growth concerns rise.
After a nice start to the year, markets are now facing the impact of the Fed's and Bank of Canada's rapid rate-hiking cycles: a tightening banking sector and a potentially slowing economy. We would expect market volatility to continue in the weeks ahead, especially if the economy heads into an economic downturn or the banking system requires more intervention. However, we believe that last year's 25% fall in the S&P 500 captured some of the mild recession that may lie ahead.
It is important to remember that the market cycle and economic cycle are distinct, as markets tend to be forward-looking. Thus, as the economy heads towards its bottom, financial markets may start looking to a period of recovery ahead. After an extended bear-market period over the past 16 months, we believe opportunities could form in the both the equity and bond markets as the economy recovers especially given that, historically, these periods can offer outsized returns in the years ahead.
Source - https://www.edwardjones.ca/ca-en/market-news-insights/stock-market-news/stock-market-weekly-update
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - United States and the World - March 2023...paul young cpa, cga
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending Outlook – United States and the World – March 2023
Durable Goods Summary:
New orders for durable goods fell in February on transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported today.
Orders slid 1 percent to $268.4 billion last month, according to a monthly report. It was the third decline in the past four months and followed a revised fall of 5 percent in January.
Excluding transportation, orders were almost unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.5 percent.
The transportation category fell 2.8 percent to $89.4 billion, also the third decline in the past four months.
Within transportation, orders for commercial aircraft and parts slipped 6.6 percent to $11.2 billion. Demand for commercial air travel has rebounded from COVID-19 lows. Still, aircraft maker Boeing Co. continues to confront manufacturing issues.
Orders for defense aircraft and parts declined 11 percent to $5.4 billion.
Source - https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/march/durable-goods-orders-decline-on-transportation/
Capital spending outlook for 2023 - https://mishtalk.com/economics/durable-goods-new-orders-decline-for-the-second-time-in-three-months
Green spending top one trillion dollars in 2022 - https://www.corporateknights.com/category-finance/global-clean-energy-investing-tops-us1-trillion-for-first-time-ever/
Boosting productivity through digital adoption - https://www.forbes.com/sites/joemckendrick/2023/02/27/digital-technology-may-give--productivity-the-boost-it-needs/?sh=3e6da444fefe
Input costs continue to see wild swings - https://www.tradealgo.com/news/march-saw-u-s-economic-growth-accelerate-to-a-10-month-high
ESG and Sustainability adoption will continue drive key investments with both human capital and business capital as part of getting to net zero - https://www.phillipinvest.com.my/how-will-esg-and-energy-transition-evolve-on-the-path-towards-net-zero/
Agriculture and green adoption - https://green.org/2023/03/24/agricultural-tech-adoption-under-climate-change/
Green construction - https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/green-technology-in-construction-market-share-by-2031-2023-03-24
Stats Canada
Retail sales declined 2.1% to $53.8 billion in May. The largest declines occurred at building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-11.3%) and motor vehicle and parts dealers (-2.4%). During the month of May, many retailers continued to face closures due to the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210723/dq210723a-eng.htm#:~:text=Retail%20sales%20declined,COVID-19%C2%A0pandemic.
Source - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210723/dq210723a-eng.htm
1. June 2021 retail sales - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-23/canada-retail-sales-jumped-in-june-with-virus-cases-receding?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
2. Consumer debt - https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/07/19/2264672/0/en/MNP-Consumer-Debt-Index-Nearly-half-of-Canadians-doubtful-they-can-cover-living-expenses-this-year-without-going-into-further-debt-highest-level-in-three-years.html - (Nearly ½ of all Cdns are doubtful they can cover living expenses without going into debt)
3. Same-day delivery / Uber - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/garage-and-dynamite-partner-with-uber-to-provide-customers-with-same-day-delivery-in-southern-ontario-841231489.html
4. Grocers and greenhouses - https://www.canadianpackaging.com/general/canadian-grocery-stores-adding-greenhouses-the-rise-of-the-growcer-169731/
5. Small format grocery stores - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2021/07/small-format-grocery-stores-are-the-future-in-canada-report-experts/
6. eCommerce - https://www.emarketer.com/content/canada-ecommerce-forecast-2021
7. Closures - https://www.styledemocracy.com/the-running-list-of-retail-store-closures-and-bankruptcies-in-2021/
8. Robots - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/grubhub-turns-to-yandex-for-robotic-food-delivery-on-campus-1.1625919
9. Employment - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-retailers-restaurants-offer-perks-to-lure-workers-in-hot-job/
10. VR and AR - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2021/07/virtual-and-augmented-reality-technology-to-entirely-change-the-retail-shopping-experience-in-canada-interview-with-retail-prophet-doug-stephens/
Cost of Living (Inflation) - United States - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
entrenched in the economy. That will likely push the Federal Reserve to extend an aggressive series of interest-rate hikes and adds to political problems for the White House and Democrats.
The consumer price index increased 8.6 per cent from a year earlier in a broad-based advance, Labor Department data showed Friday. The widely followed inflation gauge rose 1 per cent from a month earlier, topping all estimates. Shelter, food and gas were the largest contributors.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.6 per cent from the prior month and 6 per cent from a year ago, also above forecasts.
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-unexpectedly-accelerates-to-40-year-high-1.1777105
Durable Goods and Capital Spending - United States and the World - April 2023...paul young cpa, cga
Blog – Durable Goods and Capital Spending Analysis and Commentary – April 2023
Summary:
The Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods surged by much more than expected in March amid a substantial rebound in orders for transportation equipment.
The report said durable goods orders spiked by 3.2 percent in March after tumbling by a revised 1.2 percent in February.
Economists had expected durable goods orders to climb by 0.8 percent compared to the 1.0 percent slump that had been reported for the previous month.
Excluding the jump in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose by 0.3 percent in March after falling by 0.3 percent in February. Ex-transportation orders were expected to dip by 0.2 percent.
Source – https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s.-durable-goods-orders-surge-much-more-than-expected-in-march
Blog – United States Manufacturing Sector Analysis and Commentary – March 2023
Summary:
U.S. manufacturing-sector orders fell again in February, driven again by a decline in transportation equipment and manufactured durable goods orders, albeit at a slower pace than in January.
New orders for manufactured goods fell 0.7% in February on month to $536.4 billion, compared with a revised 2.1% fall in January, data from the Commerce Department showed Tuesday.
The reading is a touch weaker than the 0.6% decrease expected by economists in a poll by The Wall Street Journal.
The fall was driven by a 2.8% drop in orders for transportation equipment, the data showed. Nondefense aircraft and parts orders once again dropped, by 6.6% in February, after a 56.3% dip in January, although the figures came after a hefty rise at the end of 2022. Even excluding transportation, total orders still fell 0.3%, a swing from a 0.8% rise in January.
New orders for manufactured durable goods--those meant to last at least three years--fell 1.0% in February, in line with preliminary estimate and after a 5.0% increase in December. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods tumbled 0.4%.
Surveys to manufacturers suggest that despite recent moderation of the fall in orders, the pace of declines could accelerate again.
ISM purchasing managers index showed Monday that new orders at U.S. manufacturers contracted again in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020.
Source - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/U-S-Factory-Orders-Fell-Again-in-February-Though-at-Slower-Pace--43426768/
PMI has fallen below 50 - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-46-3-march-2023-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301787309.html
United States factory orders decline in February 2023 - https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/U-S-Factory-Orders-Fell-Again-in-February-Though-at-Slower-Pace--43426768/
Nearshoring to Mexico continues to pick up steam. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nearshoring-bets-boost-mexican-real-estate-transport-shares-2023-04-04/
Producer price index decline in February 2023 - https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-producer-prices-unexpectedly-fall-february-2023-03-15/
United States continues to look at better ways to manage supply chains like critical metals - https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/niocorp-achieves-processing-breakthrough-in-demonstration-plant-testing-of-niobium-and-titanium-production-19e70748
Broadband spending is expected to decline in 2023 - https://www.benton.org/headlines/wireless-capital-expenditures-north-america-poised-plunge-10-20-percent-2023
Market volatility continues to drive asset management decisions - https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/economic-news.html
Government continues to address climate change with more spending in the green and clean economy - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/04/clean-energy-government-investment-spending/
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – What is next for Retail Sector and Consumer Spending – August 2023
Despite months of predictions for a global recession, consumer activity and corporate earnings are holding up surprisingly well. We believe that global long-term interest rates probably peaked in October last year, and we are now observing encouraging signs of the start of corporate earnings re-acceleration.
Clearly, we are not completely out of the woods yet. Inflation is still sticky and further rate hikes are expected over the next few months, but when we look under the hood at the companies we research, resilience stands out.
This global resilience has been surprising to all of us. In Europe, consumers seemed to sail through a severe energy crisis last winter, and in the US, consumer activity in both discretionary and staples has far exceeded most expectations at the beginning of the year.
https://www.firstlinks.com.au/global-consumer-corporate-resilience-surprises-everyone
Links and sources:
Supply chain - https://www.waffleinsurance.com/resources/insuranpedia/how-do-loss-prevention-services-address-potential-risks-arising-from-supply-chain-disruptions
Fashion and their new business model - https://www.esginvestor.net/fast-fashion-race-losing-speed/
Retailing and Technology - https://www.retaildive.com/news/retail-industry-AI-adoption/691426/
Generative AI - https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2023/generative-ai-helps-auto-fill-b2b-complexities-streamlining-communications/
Logistics - https://enable.com/blog/top-challenges-facing-the-distribution-industry-how-to-overcome-them
Coles - https://www.foodmag.com.au/coles-to-partner-with-suppliers-to-set-emission-reduction-targets-by-2027/
How to best manage data - https://www.demandtalk.com/insights/data/big-data/the-power-of-retail-data-analytics-understanding-its-role-and-the-different-types/
Valdi - https://www.forbes.com/sites/walterloeb/2023/08/21/why-aldi-acquisition-of-winn-dixie-and-harveys-supermarket-is-a-big-win/?sh=6c90ed4445b9
Partnerships - https://www.verdictfoodservice.com/comment/food-service-retail-partnerships/
Sustainable shopping - https://retail-focus.co.uk/shopping-for-sustainability/
Automation - https://www.retailcustomerexperience.com/articles/reasons-why-retailers-are-marching-fast-toward-automation/
Robotics - https://www.tbsnews.net/world/global-economy/retailers-turn-robots-cost-inflation-fight-543282
Social governance and retailing - https://www.fashionabc.org/why-the-fashion-industry-has-to-balance-profit-with-esg-and-purpose/
Summary:
• The May ISM manufacturing index registered 56.1, topping expectations of a 54.5 print. The index rose 0.7 percentage points from the April reading of 55.4.
• New orders rose by 1.6 percentage points to 55.1, while new export orders rose by 0.2 percentage points to 52.9.
• The backlog of orders sub-index came in at 58.7, rising 2.7 percentage points from April's 56.0 print.
• The production index increased 0.6 percentage points to 54.2 while the employment index fell 1.3 percentage points to 49.6.
• The supplier deliveries sub-index fell to 65.7 from 67.2 in April. The sub-index continues to reflect difficulties in improving delivery rates due to production issues related to the pandemic.
• 15 of 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in May. Growth was led by Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Source - https://economics.td.com/us-ism-manufacturing-index
Retailers will continue face many challenges due to supply chain disruption and high inflation
More and more retailers look at ways to improve the customer experience
A new era of retailing that will include augment and virtual reality, end of the large shopping malls, changes to storefront, and other automation and AI solutions
Summary:
The U.S. trade deficit shrunk in April by the most on record in dollar terms, reflecting a drop in the value of imports amid COVID lockdowns in China while exports climbed.
The gap in goods and services trade narrowed $20.6 billion, or 19.1%, to $87.1 billion, Commerce Department data showed June 7. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for an $89.5 billion deficit. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation.
Imports dropped in April as factory activity in China fell to the lowest level since February 2020 amid strict lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19. While manufacturing in the country has improved since, the measures still are straining already tenuous global supply chains, especially when coupled with Russia’s war in Ukraine
Source - https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trade-deficit-narrows-most-record-muted-china-imports
Cost of Living (Inflation) - United States - May 2022 (incl PPI).pptxpaul young cpa, cga
US inflation accelerated to a fresh 40-year high in May, a sign that price pressures are becoming entrenched in the economy. That will likely push the Federal Reserve to extend an aggressive series of interest-rate hikes and adds to political problems for the White House and Democrats.
The consumer price index increased 8.6 per cent from a year earlier in a broad-based advance, Labor Department data showed Friday. The widely followed inflation gauge rose 1 per cent from a month earlier, topping all estimates. Shelter, food and gas were the largest contributors.
The so-called core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.6 per cent from the prior month and 6 per cent from a year ago, also above forecasts.
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-inflation-unexpectedly-accelerates-to-40-year-high-1.1777105
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - August 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Consumers continue to face higher prices and supply issues
Federal government has decided to increase both the carbon and payroll taxes https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/media/cfib-statement-on-the-start-of-small-business-week
Skills gap issues continue to plague the retail sector https://www.cimmigrationnews.com/ontario-retailers-worried-not-enough-workers-to-fill-jobs-heading-towards-christmas-season/
Logistics, warehousing, and distribution sector continue to look at ways to reduce their emissions - https://www.rcgauto.com/blog/technology-is-changing-the-trucking-industry/
More needs to be done to promote local supply sourcing by retailers - https://montrealgazette.com/shopping-essentials/gift-guide/how-to-support-small-local-businesses-on-amazon-canada
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221021/dq221021a-eng.htm
What is up with the Stock Market for WE - April 22, 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog - Blog - Stock Market Analysis for the WE April 21 2023
Summary:
Stocks closed slightly higher on Friday afternoon as investors digested a final slate of corporate earnings and fresh economic data to close out the week.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 23.99 points, or 0.07%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.11%.
All three major averages closed the week lower. The Dow had its worst week in six weeks, snapping a 4-week win streak
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html or https://finance.yahoo.com/stocks-end-week-lower-amid-earnings-strong-economic-data-stock-market-news-today-180717344.html or https://finance.yahoo.com/stocks-end-week-lower-amid-earnings-strong-economic-data-stock-market-news-today-180717344.html
Summary:
New orders for U.S.-made goods fell slightly more than expected in December, but manufacturing remains supported by businesses replenishing inventories.
The Commerce Department said on Thursday that factory orders decreased 0.4% in December. Data for November was revised higher to show orders increasing 1.8% instead of 1.6% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders slipping 0.2%. Orders increased 16.9% in 2021.
Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the economy, is being underpinned by businesses rebuilding inventories.
Source - https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-02-03/u-s-factory-orders-fall-in-december-shipments-rise-further
1. USA Manufacturing – https://www.yakimaherald.com/reshoring-manufacturing-might-be-washingtons-future/article_453dc45d-b050-58a8-9bf9-27a7d6a0c516.html
2. Manufacturing optimization - https://www.energy.gov/eere/amo/articles/department-energy-awards-28-million-10-projects-will-develop-emerging
3. AI and manufacturing - https://research.aimultiple.com/manufacturing-ai/
4. Robotics - https://austincountynewsonline.com/a-record-number-of-robots-joined-american-workforce-in-2021-amid-covid-labor-crunch/
5. Shortages - https://shopmetaltech.com/industry-update/u-s-manufacturing-grew-in-january-but-remains-plagued-by-bottlenecks.html
6. Food Production - https://manufacturingglobal.com/ai-and-automation/expect-to-see-these-food-manufacturing-trends-in-2022
7. Semiconductors - https://rollcall.com/2022/02/04/cost-to-rebuild-u-s-semiconductor-manufacturing-will-keep-growing/
8. PMI - https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/manufacturing-pmi-829
9. Future of manufacturing - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484370-future-of-manufacturing
10. Automotive - https://www.tti.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye/categories/industry/me-staff-20220204.html
11. Farm - https://www.tti.com/content/ttiinc/en/resources/marketeye/categories/industry/me-staff-20220204.html
12. Automation - https://www.bmc.com/blogs/it-automation-trends/
13. Raw material - https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2022/02/419_21021.html?fa
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Canada - May 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Jul 22 (Reuters) - Canadian retail sales rose 2.2% in May from April at C$62.25 billion ($48.26 billion), on higher sales at gasoline stations, as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Sales were seen to grow 0.3% in June, the agency said in a flash estimate.
Sales increased in eight of 11 subsectors, representing 86.8% of retail trade. In volume terms, retail sales were up 0.4%.
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-may-retail-sales-up-2.2-seen-up-0.3-in-june
Similar to Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptx (20)
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
Construction Spending and Outlook - The USA and the World - August 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Construction Sector Analysis and Commentary – August 2023
Summary:
The outlook for US construction of affordable housing is set to change dramatically over the next two years. "Developers see a massive shortage ahead, which threatens to undo the recent progress in closing the daunting affordable housing gap in many US cities," reports Bloomberg.
While interest rates have been increasing, the number of housing projects starting this year has been cut significantly. 2022 projects will typically come online after 18-24 months, therefore construction companies are expecting a severe supply shortage by mid-2025.
This slowdown is supported by statistics from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) which received 506 applications as of May, eight months into fiscal year 2023, totalling US$12bn in Federal Housing Administration loans to construct multi-family developments. This is about half the volume of the same eight-month period in FY22 (940 applications for US$22bn) and less than one-third of the volume for the same stretch in FY21 (1739 applications for US$37bn).
The higher costs associated with inflation and rising interest rates are creating financial gaps making it hard for developers to complete below-market rental projects, resulting in significant delays, says Bloomberg.
Single-family construction starts slipped after a four-month run, down seven per cent in June, while applications for permits rose 2.2 per cent from May, according to the Census Bureau and HUD.
Source - https://www.cemnet.com/News/story/175467/us-construction-outlook-is-about-to-change-for-crh-and-others.html
Other links and sources
1. Biodiversity / Construction - https://coastcommunitynews.com.au/central-coast/news/2023/08/biodiversity-overhaul-could-pave-the-way-for-more-housing-construction/
2. CO2 embodying - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/algomaco_california-becomes-first-state-to-adopt-mandatory-activity-7095045267430809600-y2pV/
3. Green Cement - https://environmentjournal.ca/lafarge-canada-pilots-cleantech-project-to-support-sustainable-cement-production/
4. Building codes - https://www.buildinggreen.com/newsbrief/marin-county-first-adopt-low-carbon-concrete-code
5. Energy - https://www.armstrongceilings.com/commercial/en/performance/sustainable-building-design/embodied-carbon-in-buildings.html
6. Climate Change Risks - https://urbanland.uli.org/public/climate-risk-is-financial-risk-the-ever-evolving-landscape-of-climate-related-financial-disclosures/
7. Net Zero - https://www.esmagazine.com/articles/103351-the-path-to-net-zero-buildings-3-steps-to-turn-sustainability-ambition-into-action
8. Ports / Clean - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ports-in-europe-lure-investors-into-clean-energy-gateway-plan-1.1966430
9. Broadband spending - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/broadcom-gives-downbeat-forecast-signaling-221519671.html
10. Construction materials - https://www.marketplace.org/2023/09/01/climate-change-is-making-home-construction-more-expe
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
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Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
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how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – ESG and Sustainability Policies and
Reporting
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@outlook.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
3. Agenda
USA vs Canada
(Retail Sales)
Gasoline Prices
Canada Retail Sales
by Segment
Canada Retail Sales
by Province
Canada /
eCommerce
Global eCommerce
Issues facing Retail
Retail Council /
2021 Federal
Budget
Canada Retail Sales
Bankruptcies /
Reorganizations
Home Renovations Amazon
Cannabis Stores /
Canada
Automation Sales Forecasting Supply Chain
Cash Flow
Management
Risk Analytics /
Retail
Planning Analytics
and Cognos
Analytics
4. Retail Sales – Canada vs United States
Source – BMO economics
9. Issues facing Retail
Source - https://linchpinseo.com/common-challenges-facing-the-retail-industry/
1. Digital interruption
2. Finding Technological Solutions
3. Maintaining your customer base
4. Evolving customer expectations
5. Modern marketing
6. Inspiring and retaining employees
7. Effective internal communications
10. Automation
RPA / Retail - https://medium.com/@savvycom/rpa-101-applications-of-
rpa-in-retail-industry-46b90a53bbe6
Restructuring of business models for retail will include automation -
https://www.technology.org/2020/08/06/covid-19-will-encourage-
automation-in-retail-sector/
Business process automation / retail -
https://www.impactmybiz.com/blog/business-process-automation-in-
retail/
Retail Edge Stores - https://www.jabil.com/blog/retail-automation.html
Rebooting stores through automation -
https://retailtouchpoints.com/resources/rebooting-the-retail-store-
through-in-store-automation
Augment Reality / eCommerce - https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/now-
could-finally-time-augmented-181954198.html
Virtual Reality / eCommerce - https://supplychaingamechanger.com/how-
virtual-reality-vr-is-drastically-enhancing-the-e-commerce-shopping-
experience-infographic/
11. Blog –
Containers
Last month, a series of COVID-19 outbreaks in Chinese ports caused the worst
shipping delays in years, the impacts of which we will likely still be feeling by
the time the holiday season arrives. But port closures are only part of the story
behind the recent shipping delays impacting virtually every sector, from
furniture deliveries to food product shortages.
Shipping containers, especially refrigerated ones, have been extremely hard for
manufacturers and distributors to find and fill with goods over the past few
months. A key element of the supply chain, shipping containers transport large
volumes of goods along global shipping routes. Problems first arose in early
2020 when shipping lines canceled some routes amid growing COVID-19 case
numbers worldwide, but shipping container availability worsened as
unpredictable port closures, the Suez Canal blockage, and intensifying labor
shortages left containers stranded. As a result, international freight costs have
also grown dramatically, with limited availability, lengthy delays, and
lackluster service causing issues throughout the global supply chain.
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/record-breaking-box-demand-stranded-
containers-lead-to-worst-shipping-delays-in-years/?ecms_id=7a28bad3-cea7-44d2-b9f6-
4897b99c1042&ecms_short=ART5655&doc_type=ted_video_article&parent_id=949c24
0b-29da-4827-aa56-
f2d4e5339f53&utm_content=featuredvideo&linktype=image&channel=email&campaign
_type=thomas_industry_update&campaign_name=tiu210816&utm_campaign=tiu21081
6&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_industry_update&tinid=221763045
Here is my work on supply chain -
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn
16. Continuous
Intelligence
Planning
Blog – Mitigating risks with the supply chain using more
intelligence supply chain management solutions:
The complexity of supply chains has led both the private and
public sectors to re-think how they managed their supply chain
including the use of infused-AI.
This presentation looks at possible solutions as part of mitigating
risks related to purchasing to pay cycle as part of managing the
supply chain cycle.
https://ibm.box.com/s/63aqf8jo004v2bo5f8cf6eppgglhbvs5
17. ESG Reporting
Blog – Sustainability Reporting – Environmental, Social and
Governance Reporting (ESG)
Here is my update on ESG reporting. Both the private and public
sectors continue to expand reporting in areas like environmental,
social, and governance.
Source -
https://www.ibm.com/products/envizi?utm_content=SRCWW&p
1=Search&p4=43700072769102092&p5=e&gclid=CjwKCAiA9NGf
BhBvEiwAq5vSywPOE60WwM329FuWScZZL3koFUAW4ZBdlA3OY
XM0fBebz7qNw5q2sRoC_BwQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
Blog - 10 key ESG and sustainability trends, ideas for both
the Private and Public Sectors -
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_10-
key-esg-and-sustainability-trends-ideas-activity-
7042799510351212545-
hwpI?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
18. Planning
Analytics and
Cognos
Analytics
Small and medium sizes businesses continue to
struggle with management of their data
Planning Analytics Digital Pack -
https://www.ibm.com/support/knowledgecenter/SSD29
G_2.0.0/com.ibm.swg.ba.cognos.tm1_cloud_mg.2.0.0.do
c/c_tm1_cloud_system_digital_pack.html
Cognos Analytics on Demand -
https://community.ibm.com/community/user/businessa
nalytics/blogs/david-cushing/2018/12/13/1
Planning Analytics with Cognos on Demand –
https://community.ibm.com/community/user/businessa
nalytics/blogs/bimpe-
adefowora/2020/11/11/padataondemand
Predictability -
https://community.ibm.com/community/user/businessa
nalytics/blogs/stuart-martin-phillips1/2020/10/02/easy-
forecasting-for-planning-users
19. Cybersecurity
Blog - Improving cybersecurity means understanding how
cyberattacks affect both governments and civilians -
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-improving-
cybersecurity-means-understanding-how-paul-
young/?published=t
20. Governance,
Risk, and
Compliance
Blog - IBM OpenPages with Watson can deliver a 218% return on
investment, finds Forrester study
https://www.ibm.com/blogs/watson/2020/12/ibm-openpages-with-
watson-can-deliver-a-218-return-on-investment-finds-forrester-
study/?campaign=socialselling&share=592db045-fde8-43e9-8ce3-
ff8d18fc175b&channel=linkedin&userID=cfad680f-7c88-4a2e-82e9-
f052d0bc4447&advocacy_source=everyonesocial&es_id=581e0fab6d
This ties nicely into my work on data, AI, security, and Platform -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/strengthen-internal-controls-
and-compliance-through-data-and-ai-as-part-of-the-regulatory-and-
corporate-reporting-cyclepptx-257453565
21. Summary
Retail sector continues to face challenges
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Canada Retail Sales – July 2023
Summary:
Canadian consumers appear to be quickly rolling back their spending as the Bank of Canada’s
higher interest rates start to bite into more household budgets.
Receipts for retailers dropped 0.3 per cent in August, the first decline since March, according to
an advance estimate from Statistics Canada released Friday. That followed a 0.3 per cent
increase a month earlier, which missed the median estimate of 0.4 per cent in a Bloomberg
survey.
Sales rose in seven of the nine subsectors in July, and were led by increases at food and beverage
retailers. Motor vehicle and parts dealers saw the largest decrease that month, and fell for the
first time in four months. Excluding autos, retail sales rose one per cent, double the expectations.
In volume terms, retail sales edged down 0.2 per cent in July.
The report suggests Canadians are tightening their purse strings as more households face
mortgage payment renewals and high gas prices. The Bank of Canada held borrowing costs
steady on Sept. 6, saying recent evidence showed higher rates are working to slow the economy
and consumption.
Strength in household spending earlier this year prompted policymakers to resume raising
interest rates in June and July after a five-month pause. The central bank’s next rate decision is
due on Oct. 25, and most economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the bank to hold again.
Source - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-moves-sideways-near-13470-us-pmis-canada-retail-
sales-eyed-202309220812 or https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-retail-sales-drop-0-3-in-sign-of-
consumer-slowdown-1.1975036
Links and sources:
Retail prices - https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/carbon-tax-groceries-food-prices
Grocery - https://macdonaldlaurier
.ca/rising-grocery-prices/
Port strike - https://globalnews.ca/news/9978716/bc-port-auto-sector-impacts/
Generative AI - https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2023/09/canadian-shoppers-embrace-generative-
ai-for-shopping-suggestions-report/
ESG - https://hardlines.ca/gp_home_news/home-depots-esg-report-leads-way-as-retailers-double-
down-on-ethical-concerns/