Key Telecoms Challenges & Disruptions 2014

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Snapshot of a set of key challenges, opportunities, myths & misconceptions in the telecoms industry. Thought-provoking soundbites on voice, Net Neutrality, mobile broadband & other topic

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Key Telecoms Challenges & Disruptions 2014

  1. 1. Key technology trends & challenges for communications providers Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis May 2014 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis  London-based tech analyst house & strategic consulting firm  Cross-silo, contrarian, independent  Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors  Internal workshops & brainstorms  Clients include many top telcos, vendors, webcos & startups  Orange, Telenor, VZ, T-Mobile, SingTel, SKT, NTT, Belgacom, Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, ALU, Oracle, Genband, Qualcomm, Celcom, Amdocs, IBM, Ofcom, GSMA  Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia  Reports on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, WebRTC etc  New report on “Non-Neutral Broadband Models” Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
  3. 3. Mobile data: Tsunami or just normal rising tide? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014 3G/4G Smartphone data use • Disruptive Analysis has doubts on realism of some traffic forecasts (esp. Cisco VNI) • Growth manageable with pricing, small cells, LTE, LTE-A. 5G is mostly hype for now • “Spectrum crunch” narrative highly questionable (landgrab vs broadcast?) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Growing usage per smartphone Growing # smartphone subs ? NB 2012-13 subs growth possibly skewed by older smartphones without data plans Smartphone data use growth year-on-year c20-30% growth/user/yr Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis
  4. 4. Network Neutrality: storm in a teacup? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014 Red Herring Neutral-ish & maybe unworkable • Few realistic scenarios beyond zero-rating • Lots of scope for failure • Only winners will be the lawyers • Blocking = Unwinnable tech arms-race Some zero-rating is feasible (Rev=Zero) Impossible wishful- thinking Low-end users in emerging markets
  5. 5. Two charts you’ll never see… Calls by purpose Gossip Meeting up Flirting B2C Cust Svc B2B internal Spam Showing off Work Wasting time Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014 Must have Nice to have Meh. I want free I'll call back Importance of QoS, % calls Diagrams are illustrative, not actual data • Telecom industry doesn’t understand demand for its core product • Makes it impossible to defend vs. competition & substitution
  6. 6. OTT voice & messaging: pricing & purpose Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014 VoiceMessaging Standalone “call/send” model Standalone other model Embedded in app/web WebRTC SMS iMessage FaceTime Audio FaceTime Video Skype Facebook Messenger WhatsApp LINE WeChat Google Hangouts GTalk PSTN, VoLTE RCS Flash Lync API Siri iOS/Android notifications Video  Free or almost-free  Better experience  Fits use-cases & contexts  Fast-evolving  Viral / cool / peer-group  Partner? Own OTT?  New sources of revenue
  7. 7. VoLTE… eventually… patchily  Limited deployment of VoLTE so far  Live in 3 South Korea networks & quite widely used  Huge work undertaken, dense cell networks (inc. indoor), cooperation  Small MetroPCS deployment, halted after T-Mo acquisition  AT&T – limited launch May 2014 (1 phone, 3 areas)  Small “Press release” launches on O2 DE & CSL HK  China Mobile demo + aggressive 2014/15 plans  Extremely complex. Many separate problems & issues  Most LTE operators sticking to CSFB for now  Against a backdrop of falling demand & revenue for telephony  No obvious VoLTE benefits beyond HD & minor spectrum gain  RCS / joyn – zombie technology. Dead but still shambling Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
  8. 8. Beyond OTT apps: WebRTC= next disruption Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report
  9. 9. Policy & innovation…… …..vs. politics Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014 Strategy Mobile broadband Telco Depts In-house apps & content Marketing / Product ITCore network Radio network Devices Legal Tensions Tensions Distance • Design skills • Software skills • Cannibalisation • “Standards” • Risk-averse • Legacy tech Tensions
  10. 10. Other “Disruptive” trends & opinions  GSMA, 3GPP, ETNO etc. often a hindrance, not a help  NFC is a pointless waste of time, especially for telcos  SDN & NFV may be game-changers, but patchy & slow  IoT is going to need more IT/solutions skills than connectivity  Privacy & encryption becoming more important post-Snowden  Reach & impact of Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google, Microsoft cannot be underestimated. Watch capex & R&D  Lots going on with enterprise & cloud communications Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014
  11. 11. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014 Also **NEW**: Non-Neutral Mobile Internet Business Models Report Also on request: private workshops & expert advisory retainers For details email information@disruptive-analysis.com
  12. 12. www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014May 2014

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