An overview of the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP PTRF (Pastoral Transformations to Resilient Futures--Understanding Climate from the Ground Up) Project and update on the project's current status. Presentation given by K. Galvin (Colorado State University) at the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting, Golden, CO, April 26-27, 2011.
1. Pastoral Transformations to Resilient Futures: Understanding Climate From the Ground Up K. Galvin, R. Reid, J. Njoka, D.Ole Nkedianye, P. Thornton This presentation was made possible by the United States Agency for International Development and the generous support of the American people through Grant No. EEM-A-00-10-0001. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.
2. Overall Project Objectives Objective 1: understand the important climate and social changes affecting livestock management in two pastoral areas: Athi-Kaputiei Plains and the Greater Mara Ecosystem. Objective 2: how do pastoralists observe climate and other changes and how has it affected livestock condition management and marketing strategies. Objective 3: hold 2 workshops hosted by Maasai NGOs to develop solutions
3. Change in Social-Ecological Systems Political Economy (policy, power) P Global Region Place Social capital Exposure (Objective1) Climate Globalization: land tenure change tourism population increases markets Structure/Sensitivity (Objective 2) Social and Natural Capital: Ecosystem Livestock, Wildlife Land Use Livelihoods Adaptability/Action (Objective 3) Governance Land use decisions Livestock management ??? Persist? Transform? Perceptions of risk (Objective 2) Impact Environmental Influences Vulnerability Resilience Based on: Chapin and Kofinas 2009; Turner et al 2003
21. Rainfall Trends In Kenya Nyahururu Nyahururu Nyahururu Marsabit Narok KMD
22. African agricultural areas projected to undergo a > 20% reduction in growing season length by 2050 …rainfall may go up, but it will get hotter, so in many places, it will be drier… IPCC (2007) citing Thornton et al. (2006)
26. Progress of project Workshop, focus group interviews Trailer of video Surveys, focus groups, key informant interviews underway Workshop in August with focus groups Development of video
27. Objectives of workshop: Observations of climate change The science of climate change Changes from the dryland regions Future scenarios Pathways to the Future
31. Other changes Livestock condition, movement and marketing Disruption of movement routes Decrease in production Shift to sheep and goats Livelihoods Diversification Growth of women managed activities Low incomes affects education, health Social relations Weaker family stability; increased conflict
32. solutions Security Infrastructure: roads, education, storage of fodder, marketing information and abbatoirs, water, banking, climate information Land use policy to open, unfenced land Disease free zones, human and veterinary Economic diversification: tourism, dryland products, women in business, health Environmental development: tree planting, wind, dryland products: aloe, gum arabic
38. Lessons learned Climate never acts in isolation Pastoralists learn from each other No single solution is appropriate for all pastoral regions Gender differences in the consequences of climate change. Implications for food security There is a need for climate forecasts and what climate change is
39. Emerging issues Bring local voices from climate policy to county governance Gender issues from economic diversification to food security Compare different pastoral regions Scale issues from the local to the regional
40.
41. They want both community self-determination and rights of access to state and other resources
42. It will take new capacities: managerial, marketing, education, inter-institutional coordination
43.
Editor's Notes
Draws on the previous work by researchers from many disciplines – geography, HE, Sociology But the reasons that it is useful in the work that I do: Social and ecological components of systems are brought together into one framework integrates appreciation for power relationships, policy Allows consideration of not just 1 hazard at a time, but many Allows consideration of change at multiple scalesBut the vulnerability framework has also been expanded to represent processes of change in SE systems more broadlyNot just vulnerability – which only represent one state of being vulnerable (x is vulnerable or not to y set of exposures)But also processes of resilience: The capacity of social-ecological systems to absorb disturbances so as to retain essential structures, processes and feedbacks So that under a range of conditions people have the ability to learn, innovate and persistSo where does my work fit into this framework?I’m interested in hh livelihoods – hh scaleSo in my PhD work with Maasai, given set of exposures - What endowments do people have to work with? Wealth, Social Capital, Infrastructure, Land rights - the focus is on sensitivityThis sets the stage for how people are able to respond Then: What are responses how well are they doing? What the outcomes for Well-being??? And: are there Innovative, emergent responses? What stays the same and what changes?Then for Post Doc: Same focus on nexus between sensitivity But more nuanced thinking about how characteristics combine to allow hh’s to react to a range of exposures – more focus on R
Aloe plants in TurkanaGum arabic in Garissa
Markets for livestock but also other products such as gum arabica, aloeThese occur at various social organizational scalesCOMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern AfricaIGAD = Intergovernmental Authority on Development