Climate change mitigation and adaptation 2011ver2


Published on

Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Climate change mitigation and adaptation 2011ver2

  1. 1. Prof Amos Majule Module ThreeSeptember 2011
  2. 2. Introduction to the moduleObjectivesDefinition of key concepts Climate change and agricultureWhy focus on agriculture?Global and regional impacts on agricultureAdaptation and coping strategies Agricultural innovations and innovation systems Suggested reading materials
  3. 3. Introduction to the module
  4. 4.  Understand concepts of climate change, climate change impacts, vulnerability, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, agricultural innovations and innovation systems
  5. 5.  Learn about the impacts of climate change on agriculture and understand the implications for human livelihoods
  6. 6.  Understand agricultural innovations and innovation systems for adaptation and mitigation and factors that enable and impede these innovations
  7. 7. Definition of key concepts
  8. 8.  A shift of climatic conditions in a directional incremental mode with values of climatic elements changing significantly and as long-term weather patterns that describe a region Evidence of climate change could be detected over several decades It is documented as one of the most challenging emerging problems facing the world in the 21st century (IPCC 2007)
  9. 9.  Cited changes indicate;-warming of temperatures during the 20th century-changes in precipitation across the globe-changes in sea level and ice and snow extent(Boko et al., 2007 and IPCC, 2001 & 2007) e.g., since 1978 annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade Mt Kilimanjaro-reduction of ice cap
  10. 10.  There may be both positive and negative effects of observed climate related parametres-droughts, floods, heat waves Both direct and indirect-direct-increased heat by increased temperature-indirect-increase in malaria incidence Compounded by interactions with non-climatic stresses such as socio-economic, political, cultural
  11. 11.  Negative impacts of climate change are likely to hit the poorest people in the poorest countries hardest Low income countries’ vulnerability tends to increase Women are disproportionately vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of gender differences (Kyomuhendo & Muhanguzi, 2008 and Nelson & Sthathers, 2009).
  12. 12.  The ability or inability of individuals and social groupings to respond to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and wellbeing (Kelly & Adger 2000) High degree of exposure to risk, shocks and stress and proneness to food insecurity (Ellis 2000) Varies widely across people in the same or different places
  13. 13.  the likelihood that an individual or a group of individuals will be exposed to and adversely affected by dreadful conditions (Cutter, 2001). Ability to absorb shocks and trends Measure the magnitude of impacts This is a function of four major factors; ◦ Environment ◦ Economic ◦ Social ◦ Institutional set up
  14. 14.  Adaptation is usually distinguished from coping , which is conceptualised as a short term mechanism of dealing with immediate shocks Coping begins when a household is forced to mobilize resources to respond to crises Also responses to declining food availability and entitlements in abnormal seasons or years
  15. 15.  Adaptation includes responses and adjustments to actual or potential impacts of changing climatic conditions Positive actions to change frequency or intensity of impacts (Adger et. al 2003) The outcome of a process of considering simultaneously a wide variety of stressors—including, climatic factors (Reid & Vogel 2006)
  16. 16.  Adjustment in the system in response to actual or expected stress factor (climate) and its impacts. Long term measures suitable for a particular social or environment ◦ Suitable soil and water management practices ◦ Appropriate seed sowing methods ◦ Appropriate food storage facilities ◦ Appropriate crop types and seeds ◦ Appropriate building structures ets
  17. 17.  The degree to which adjustments are possible in practices or structures of systems to projected or actual changes of climate This is largely influenced by resilience within the system/community(UNFCCC, 2002 and Reid & Vogel, 2006) It is also the ability of farmers to respond successfully and make adjustments to climate change
  18. 18.  This is done by drawing on resources and technologies Adaptive capacity is the ability to ameliorate the negative consequences of climate change and take advantage of positive changes Adaptive capacity is determined by technological ability, economic resources and human, political and social capital (Tol et al., 2004)
  19. 19.  Potential or the ability of a system region or communities to adapt to the effects or impacts of a stressor Developed countries Vs Developing countries Within countries (Low and High Favoured areas) Within communities (The rich, the middle and the poor) Gender, age, health etc (at family level)
  20. 20.  Human capital ◦ Knowledge on climate (scientific and local) ◦ Technical and political ◦ Education level/perceptions/health status Information and technology ◦ Communication network (radio, TV, etc) ◦ Freedom of expression ◦ Technology transfer and packaging of information ◦ Innovative systems and capacity ◦ Early warning systems
  21. 21.  Organisation and social capital ◦ State of CSO relationships ◦ Local coping networks (SACCOS, borrowing and lending institutions) ◦ Social mobilization ◦ Density of institutional network Material resource and infrastructure ◦ Transport system ◦ Water infrastructure ◦ Sanitation ◦ Energy supply and management
  22. 22.  Political capital ◦ Modes of governance ◦ Leadership legitimacy ◦ Participation in decision making ◦ Decision and management capacity ◦ Sovereignty (trans boundary water course) Wealth and financial capital ◦ Income and wealth distribution ◦ Economic marginalization ◦ Availability/accessing credits ◦ Fiscal incentives for risk management
  23. 23. Climate change and agriculture
  24. 24.  Climate change directly affects agricultural production Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climatic conditions It is one of the most vulnerable sectors to risks and Climate exerts significant pressure on the economic development of Africa, particularly for agriculture and water- resources(Boko et al. 2007)
  25. 25.  Agriculture is a mainstay of local livelihoods and national GDP in some countries in Africa Climate change could exacerbate socio-economic instability for agro-based countries Disruptions in food and water systems adversely affect development and livelihoods and add to the already existing challenges for poverty eradication
  26. 26.  Agriculture is a vital source of food and the prevailing way of life in Africa An average of 70% of the world population lives by farming, and 40% of all exports are earned from agricultural products (WRI, 1996) In this regard, agricultural and economic growth must rise in order to realize basic development goals.
  27. 27. Negative climatechange impacts on agriculture
  28. 28.  A drop in crop yields was the strongest negative deviation from the long-term trend in Europe in the last 43 years A Heat wave in 2003 and a long period with low or no precipitation led to droughts in large parts of Europe Greece, Portugal, France, Italy and Austria, suffered from yield drops of up to 30% in this period
  29. 29.  Tick increases are attributed to temperature increases in past decades-1980s- Baltic countries; Sweden, Finland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were heavily affected, including-Central European countries; Switzerland, Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia(Lindgren et al., 2000 )
  30. 30.  Africa is under pressure from climate stresses and is highly vulnerable to their impacts Estimates show one third of African people already live in drought-prone areas and 220 million are exposed to drought each year (UNFCCC, 2007) IPCC predicts that by 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture in some countries could be halved and agricultural production and access to food may be severely compromised.(Vermuelen et al., 2008).
  31. 31.  The ENSO floods in 1998 in East Africa resulted in human suffering and deaths, as well as extensive damage to infrastructure and crops in Kenya (Magadza, 2000) Droughts in the Southern Africa region in 1991–1992 and 1997–1998 affected livelihoods and economies The impacts of the 1991–1992 droughts in Zimbabwe are estimated to have been 9% of GDP (Benson & Clay, 1998) Past trends on droughts and floods and poor harvests in 2005 caused hunger in most parts of the Tanzania (WHO, 2007)
  32. 32.  In higher altitude and latitude regions, livestock are exposed to winter temperatures below their optimum Increased precipitation as a consequence of climate change could increase the risk of infections in livestock and people (Baylis & Githeko, 2006) El Nino, an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in 1997-1998 in Somalia and Northern Kenya killed as much as 80% of the livestock and many cases were reported in Tanzania The RVF was linked to flooding (WHO, 1998b) Heat stress and drought have negative impacts on animal health and production of dairy products
  33. 33.  In northwest Kenya, recurring droughts have led to increased competition for grazing resources, livestock losses and conflict In 2005/6 drought, the Maasai communities in the Kajiando district in Kenya lost 95% of their livestock and became food insecure (IDRC/CCAA 2009; SEI 2008) The snow and glaciers of Mount Kilimanjaro, Ruwenzori in Uganda and Mount Kenya are under threat(IDRC/CCAA 2009).
  34. 34.  Climate change does not only affect crops and livestock, but also the socio-economic context and human health There are both direct and structural impacts on agriculture
  35. 35. Positive climate change impacts on agriculture
  36. 36.  Heat wave 2003-Denmark and Finland profited from higher temperatures and lower rainfall Earlier sowing date for certain crops due to an earlier start Longer duration of the vegetation period
  37. 37.  Model simulations suggest net effects of studied climate scenarios in agriculture in the USA’s economy over the 21st century are generally positive Most commercial crops in the USA; wheat, rice, barley, oats, potatoes, and most vegetable crops, tend to respond favourably to increased CO2 A doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to yield increases in the range of 15- 20%(NAST 200)
  38. 38.  Negative effects are overwhelming but climate change sometimes may have a positive impact Mostly on structural changes in local economies and livelihood patterns under certain circumstances- localised benefits-in a study done in Southern Zambia farmers became more enterprising than before due to climate induced hardships-opportunity to cultivate crops in winter season after flood episodes (Mubaya 2010)
  39. 39.  There may also be a few positive impacts (localised benefits) that can be capitalised on to improve the livelihoods of farmers all districts (small scale farmers continue to irrigate crops due to overflowing dams after floods in Zambia)
  40. 40.  Organic agriculture through conservation farming Lowering the need for slash and burn cropping Postponing harvests Reducing burning Conversion of agricultural land to forestry(Alig 2003)Biofuel production by smallholder farmers and ‘out-grower’ or local contracted farmer arrangements (Sulle & Nelson 2009
  41. 41. Coping and adaptation strategies
  42. 42.  Desperate strategies that farmers take to cope in the immediate term and cannot sustain the household for long Examples of coping strategies include;-consuming crops before maturity due to hunger,-borrowing money or food-disposal of key productive assets
  43. 43.  Examples of documented adaptation to climate change in Africa include;-crop diversification- Irrigation- construction of water reservoirs- accumulating food surpluses- use of drought resistant varieties(Boko et al. 2007; Adger et al. 2007; Cooper et al. 2006)
  44. 44. Identify a case study in a country of your choice1. What climate change issue/s are farmers faced with2. List impacts from these climate changes3. What response strategies do these farmers employ4. Categorize each strategy under either coping or adaptation and give reasons why
  45. 45. THANK YOU