21. Why Are the Generals Worried? Climate change has the potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, occurring globally within the same time frame. Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources. Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies
33. Energy World Oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet projected growth in demand on the assumption that the necessary investment is forthcoming…..IAE, World Energy Outlook 200t
34. Water “ We are moving into what I think is an unprecedented period of water stress that we have no historical analogue to understand.” Sandra Postrel, Director, Global Water Policy Institute
41. Transportation of Tourists = 75% of Sector Emissions minimum * - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate Sub-Sectors CO 2 (Mt) Air transport * 522 40% Car transport 418 32% Other transport 39 3% Accommodation 274 21% Activities 52 4% TOTAL 1,307 Total World (IPCC 2007) 26,400 Tourism Contribution 4.95% Our Share of the Problem
examined 4 major types of impacts that destinations may have to contend with
By focusing on the direct effects of climate change and ignoring the indirect effects, the tourism sector could fail to respond the biggest challenge to its future existence – a challenge that has been hastened and exacerbated by tourism’s global success; a challenge that lies embedded – like a silent time bomb – in a host of indirect effects that could undermine, jeopardize or, possibly, evaporate demand for international travel. The five major sources of “indirect effects” are: oil prices, economic vitality, security, disease, consumer/voter response to climatic events and effects, and government response to all of the above. They are each affected by climate change to varying degrees. The problem is that all these factors are inextricably inter-woven in a myriad of ways that few appreciate. They form a complex system that is in a constant state of flux adapting to internal events and external stimuli and no one fully understands the nature of the inter-dependencies. Despite its apparent resiliency – and the tourism industry loves to boast how resilient it is – tourism is built on a foundation that is could possibly be as unsinkable as the Titanic and as impregnable as the World Trade Centre. What happens to public spending on tourism when too many major powers start to take an unhealthy interest in Canada’s Arctic and our government has to reallocate public funds to security and defence issues? What happens when drought in China and India literally sucks money out of the economy to prevent dissent and revolution from the vast army of rural poor? Will the wealthy Chinese always be able to travel abroad? Will thr Indian middle classes feel safe leaving their homes behind and unprotected? What happens as habitats morph and new species move north – might we be vulnerable to new contagious diseases? There cannot be a person in this room who cannot remember the impact of SARS on our industry. What happens as increasing numbers of violent climatic events occur and voters put serious pressure on industry and politicians to “do something”. 5% of travellers in Europe are reducing their long-haul travel. This number could grow. Does it need to?
