Future of Social Games

Future of socialgames BrowserGamesForum 2011 Kappuru

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MRBill

Lies Damn lies Statistics PredictionsXurble

Cross promo 150 million MAU #rebelalliance Social games 2008-2010 #failedConsole racing games 2004-2008 #flatout Stevendepolo

!"#$%&(%)*+ ,$&&)%-* %&"."/money AMagill

Global SNS Gaming Market10 (US$ in Billions) $9.0B9 Advertising87 24% CAGR654 $3.8B Virtual goods32 “Facebook is roughly half of this”10 0122 0120 0123 0124 0125 Source: Lazard Capital Markets

l go upa lotARPU wil Sh4rp_i Kevin Dooley

ARPU comparison Adjusted for per capita incomeSource: Lazard Capital Markets and company reports

Zhent_But it will get very expensive

5 465 <!3183=>*%?+ 4 9:; 365 9:9 User 3 065acquisition 0 265 2 165 1 72821 70821 73821 74821 72822 70822 Social media advertising 4x in <5 years ! huge increase in competition & pricesContent Yes, a symphony orchestra soundtrack Soon: 3D? Cloud Gaming?

A 24% CAGR market willCompetition attract late entrants Mobile & Social convergence “Pay to play” Developer & operations talent is scarce and fought overOperations Metrics, predictives, other operative systems are complex & expensive

pa rtners ?Publishing becomes typical

The cycle A new platform is born ! Indies run wild ! “HOT HOT HOT!” Platform becomes successful Everybody wants in, VCs throw in tons of money Costs go up, skills become more specialized, success isn’t easy Winners emerge, market consolidates VCs bow out (“market’s done”) Costs are up, distribution is hard, money is scarce ! Publishers enter the market But it is hard to publish a live game. Expect plenty of failures on the wayGuille

Self-publisherswill band together

Economies of Scale Cross promote Retain users Favorable terms Pick one: Succeed together Go solo, sink alone? Work for hire Exit the marketRobert Nilsson

Interest Social meets graph graph Shaniber

Mobage, Gree, Xbox Live on top of Facebook? Avatars vs. real identity?

Real Social?Anirudh Kouhl

? This could go either way YES! NO!•  Higher ARPU •  Much harder to create•  More engaging •  Mini-MMOs worth the•  Better retention investment?•  PvP makes for great •  Do users on Facebook monetization really care?•  Opportunity for browser •  Real people are messy game makers? •  Does a soccer mom tolerate being griefed?

Wider variety

The drivers of variety More HC More casual•  Tech: Flash 3D, game •  Core FB audience looks for streaming bite sized diversions•  Mid-core makes more money •  Are social games getting a bit too complex for the core FB•  “Get away from Zynga” audience?•  Audience appetite for mid- •  “Just copy Nintendo” core, 200M players Where’s Brain Training?•  Lots of overlap between •  “Just copy Big Fish” console & social gamers ! look at Gardens of Time Lucy Nieto

Social, mobile, Mobile social…It’s all the same

Identical audience, games, monetization HTML5 + WebGL everywhere Multi-screen games/IP Facebook wins app discovery game for mobileGoogle+ embedded into Android (already) Need to play in social & mobile to be a true winner Lucy Nieto

Battle of thegiants Zynga vs. Nexonvs. Gree vs. DeNA vs. late entrants

Mobile SNSgaming gaming Console Online gaming

Bring your popcorn, it’s going to be epicPublic companies with$ billions in war chestsGrudge match between DeNA & Gree Zynga: “win mobile at any cost” Core publishers can’tignore stagnant revenue vs. >20% CAGR ScypaxPictures

Awesometime to bein games! Kristina Alexanderson

jussi@applifier.com @jussil Kristina Alexanderson

http://www.conseilsmarketing.com	282
http://www.socialmediasocialmedia.nl	104
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Future of Social Games

by Jussi Laakkonen on Nov 18, 2011

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Future of Social Games — Presentation Transcript