Trends in 3D technologies & the impact on networked games<br />Dr. RémiARNAUDscream!point24 Nov, 2009<br />
Scream!point 5D technology<br />http://www.youtube.com/user/screampoint<br />
Outline<br /><ul><li>Network Games Economics
User Generated Content
Obstacles
Catalysts
Our Future - Gaming in the Cloud?</li></li></ul><li>A year ago video game sales were soaring, and some people thought it m...
Sales down 19% year-over-year<br />Subscription up 7% year-over-year<br />
Electronic Distribution‘free games’ effect<br /># Units<br />$ revenue<br />
The virtual goods market in the U.S. is ready to take off. Right now, the U.S. only has 28% of the total market. By 2013, ...
Brings New Brands, Resources To Social Gaming REDWOOD CITY, Calif., November 9, 2009 – Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS)...
Jan’09 – revenues of $50 million<br />
Asia’s total annual virtual goods might be &gt;$5 billions<br />1.8 M users :: Netease’s Fantasy Westward Journey<br />1.5...
Symbiosis<br />Virtual Goods would not exist without Networked Games<br />Networked Games are fuelled by Virtual Goods<br />
Mods and User Generated Content <br />Continuum of Content<br />1980’s<br /> Personal Computers<br />2000’s <br />Social N...
Game Import<br />COLLADA<br />Render<br />
Major Trends<br />Social Networking<br />Users increasingly use the internet for social networking, both at Home and the E...
Obstacles<br />Virtual currencies regulation<br />3D and Web integration<br />3D on mobile<br />Content Authoring<br />Vir...
80% of gold farmers are based in China and generate between 200M$ - 1B$ annually<br />
3D native in a browser<br /><ul><li>No HW accelerated 3D without a plug-in
Plug-in installation is a huge barrier
Flash does not have 3D acceleration
Papervision3D Away3D opensourceactionscript software rendering solutions
Disconnected expertises
3D experts do not know the web
Web experts do not know 3D</li></li></ul><li>3D native in a browser<br />One Standard, 2 perspectives<br /><ul><li>Khronos...
Canvas, HTML5
Javascriptextensions to Firefox
Immediate mode
O3D
Javascript, plug-in to IE, Ff, Opera…
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Keynote Net Games 09 - Rémi Arnaud

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Trends in 3D technologies &amp; the impact on networked games

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  • Zynga Farmville, Mafia Wars
  • Keynote Net Games 09 - Rémi Arnaud

    1. 1. Trends in 3D technologies & the impact on networked games<br />Dr. RémiARNAUDscream!point24 Nov, 2009<br />
    2. 2. Scream!point 5D technology<br />http://www.youtube.com/user/screampoint<br />
    3. 3. Outline<br /><ul><li>Network Games Economics
    4. 4. User Generated Content
    5. 5. Obstacles
    6. 6. Catalysts
    7. 7. Our Future - Gaming in the Cloud?</li></li></ul><li>A year ago video game sales were soaring, and some people thought it might be a &quot;recession-proof&quot; industry. We can&apos;t imagine anyone feels that way today.<br />October 09 unit sales were down 19% according to NPD year over year. And if the industry is lucky, it will get flat to single digit growth by for the year.<br />
    8. 8. Sales down 19% year-over-year<br />Subscription up 7% year-over-year<br />
    9. 9. Electronic Distribution‘free games’ effect<br /># Units<br />$ revenue<br />
    10. 10. The virtual goods market in the U.S. is ready to take off. Right now, the U.S. only has 28% of the total market. By 2013, the U.S. will make up 41% of the market with $2.5 billion in sales, according to research from Piper Jaffray.<br />
    11. 11. Brings New Brands, Resources To Social Gaming REDWOOD CITY, Calif., November 9, 2009 – Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) today announced it has acquired Playfish™, a leading creator of social network games. The acquisition accelerates EA’s position in social entertainment and strengthens its focus on the transition to digital and social gaming. Playfish will operate within EA Interactive, a division of EA focused on the web and on wireless. EA has acquired Playfish for approximately US$275 million in cash and approximately US$25 million in equity retention arrangements. In addition, the sellers are entitled to additional variable cash consideration, up to a maximum of US$100 million, contingent upon the achievement of certain performance milestones through December 31, 2011. “Social gaming, with its emphasis on friends and community, is seeing tremendous growth and this is the right time to invest to strengthen our participation in this space,” said Barry Cottle, Senior Vice President and General Manager of EA Interactive. “EAi has been successfully leading the charge for EA, and with the addition of proven expertise from Playfish, their broad consumer base and strong game brands, we’re moving ahead aggressively in our plans to lead in the category of cross-platform social entertainment.” <br />
    12. 12. Jan’09 – revenues of $50 million<br />
    13. 13.
    14. 14. Asia’s total annual virtual goods might be &gt;$5 billions<br />1.8 M users :: Netease’s Fantasy Westward Journey<br />1.5 M users :: Giant’s Zhengtu Online<br />1.2 M users :: Tencent’s Dungeon and Fighter<br />1.0 M users :: Blizzard’s World of Warcarft<br />
    15. 15. Symbiosis<br />Virtual Goods would not exist without Networked Games<br />Networked Games are fuelled by Virtual Goods<br />
    16. 16. Mods and User Generated Content <br />Continuum of Content<br />1980’s<br /> Personal Computers<br />2000’s <br />Social Networking<br />1990’s<br /> Video game <br />Dark Ages <br />2010’s<br />Web Centric<br />2008 <br />Little Big Planet<br />Spore <br />1997<br /> Doom<br /> Open Source<br />1992<br /> Stunt Island<br />Machinima<br />1999<br />Counter-Strike<br /> Half-Life mod<br />2005 <br />facebook<br />2006 <br />twitter<br />
    17. 17. Game Import<br />COLLADA<br />Render<br />
    18. 18. Major Trends<br />Social Networking<br />Users increasingly use the internet for social networking, both at Home and the Enterprise<br />User Generated Content<br />Users gets more and more sophisticated, from sms to full 3D games <br />Cheap broadband connection<br />Sufficient bandwidth for interactive, online 3D experience<br />Real time 3D graphics<br />GPUs provide HW acceleration in most devices, including mobile phones<br />Virtual Economy<br />Real and Virtual economies connected<br />Virtual Goods cost real money<br />
    19. 19. Obstacles<br />Virtual currencies regulation<br />3D and Web integration<br />3D on mobile<br />Content Authoring<br />Virtual goods ownership<br />
    20. 20. 80% of gold farmers are based in China and generate between 200M$ - 1B$ annually<br />
    21. 21. 3D native in a browser<br /><ul><li>No HW accelerated 3D without a plug-in
    22. 22. Plug-in installation is a huge barrier
    23. 23. Flash does not have 3D acceleration
    24. 24. Papervision3D Away3D opensourceactionscript software rendering solutions
    25. 25. Disconnected expertises
    26. 26. 3D experts do not know the web
    27. 27. Web experts do not know 3D</li></li></ul><li>3D native in a browser<br />One Standard, 2 perspectives<br /><ul><li>KhronosWebGL working group</li></ul>Announced SigGraph’09<br /><ul><li>Mozilla:
    28. 28. Canvas, HTML5
    29. 29. Javascriptextensions to Firefox
    30. 30. Immediate mode
    31. 31. O3D
    32. 32. Javascript, plug-in to IE, Ff, Opera…
    33. 33. Retained mode</li></li></ul><li>3D and connected mobile technology: Specific to device in hand<br /><ul><li>3D is a power-hog
    34. 34. Battery powered devices can run long with 3D
    35. 35. Many incompatible SDKs
    36. 36. Android, Apple, Palm SDKs
    37. 37. Non standard browser
    38. 38. Flash not available
    39. 39. Small Screen
    40. 40. Content not directly portable
    41. 41. Game tailored to device
    42. 42. Navispore
    43. 43. Augmented reality (3DVIA)</li></li></ul><li>Augmented Reality<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdQsS8LBxpo<br />
    44. 44. Content Authoring<br />DCC tools are targeting professional users. Too expensive and complex for end users<br />Game industry not focused on broader authoring needs<br />Dilemma: improving authoring to pursue innovative uses of games vs. improving authoring to streamline making game content?<br />
    45. 45. Virtual goods ownership<br />Can’t move virtual goods from one application to another<br />Need a standard !<br />DRM as existing does not work<br />Need to empower end user, not block them<br />Need to understand modding community<br />Mod over mod over mod<br />Most end users want credit, welcome copy<br />
    46. 46. Catalysts<br />CPU and GPU collision<br />Standards<br />Public content repositories<br />Tools for fun<br />
    47. 47. GPU vs. CPU Collision: <br /> CPU&apos;s add cores to reach GPU&apos;s parallelization<br />GPU&apos;s add programmability to reach CPU&apos;s flexibility<br /><ul><li>Each have different priorities
    48. 48. Pipeline vs. Parallel
    49. 49. Graphics pipeline more predictable
    50. 50. CPUs better suited to more random things
    51. 51. Programmable GPU “hot”
    52. 52. Both have pros and cons
    53. 53. Next up?
    54. 54. Hybrid chips, compute
    55. 55. AMD Fusion
    56. 56. Intel Larrabee
    57. 57. Nvidia Fermi
    58. 58. NvidiaTegra
    59. 59. SoC with ARM processor</li></ul>GPU vs. CPU collisionCPUs are moving to serious multi-core architecture and GPUs are being used to do CPU work-CrunchGear August 2008<br />
    60. 60. Standards (3D)<br />Content<br />HW accelerated API<br />Compression<br />Distribution<br />MPEG-4 Part 25: A graphics compression framework for XML-based scene graph formats<br />BlagicaJovanova, Marius Preda and Françoise Preteux<br />
    61. 61. User Content Repositories<br />
    62. 62.
    63. 63. Dassault Systèmes :: 3dvia.com <br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohdYBp4xfII<br />
    64. 64. Figure Asset Pipeline Components<br />Content Repositories Communities & Asset Management<br />Need server side asset pipeline<br />
    65. 65. Tools for fun<br /><ul><li>Poster Child:
    66. 66. Spore Creature Editor
    67. 67. Bastard Step Children:
    68. 68. Little Big Planet
    69. 69. Spore Adventure Creator
    70. 70. Roblox
    71. 71. Second Life editor (fun?)
    72. 72. SketchUp (fun?)
    73. 73. Web based tools for fun
    74. 74. Facebook apps
    75. 75. Zynga (Mafia Wars,YoVille,</li></ul>FarmVille, etc.…)<br /><ul><li>Twitpic / twitter</li></li></ul><li>Our Future - Gaming in the Cloud?<br />OnLive<br />Gaikai<br />

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