5 465 <!3183=>*%?+ 4 9:;
365 9:9 User 3 065acquisition 0 265 2 165 1 72821 70821 73821 74821 72822 70822 Social media advertising 4x in <5 years ! huge increase in competition & pricesContent Yes, a symphony orchestra soundtrack Soon: 3D? Cloud Gaming?
A 24% CAGR market willCompetition
attract late entrants Mobile & Social convergence “Pay to play” Developer & operations talent is scarce and fought overOperations Metrics, predictives, other operative systems are complex & expensive
The cycle A new platform
is born ! Indies run wild ! “HOT HOT HOT!” Platform becomes successful Everybody wants in, VCs throw in tons of money Costs go up, skills become more specialized, success isn’t easy Winners emerge, market consolidates VCs bow out (“market’s done”) Costs are up, distribution is hard, money is scarce ! Publishers enter the market But it is hard to publish a live game. Expect plenty of failures on the wayGuille
? This could go either
way YES! NO!• Higher ARPU • Much harder to create• More engaging • Mini-MMOs worth the• Better retention investment?• PvP makes for great • Do users on Facebook monetization really care?• Opportunity for browser • Real people are messy game makers? • Does a soccer mom tolerate being griefed?
The drivers of variety More
HC More casual• Tech: Flash 3D, game • Core FB audience looks for streaming bite sized diversions• Mid-core makes more money • Are social games getting a bit too complex for the core FB• “Get away from Zynga” audience?• Audience appetite for mid- • “Just copy Nintendo” core, 200M players Where’s Brain Training?• Lots of overlap between • “Just copy Big Fish” console & social gamers ! look at Gardens of Time Lucy Nieto
Identical audience, games, monetization HTML5
+ WebGL everywhere Multi-screen games/IP Facebook wins app discovery game for mobileGoogle+ embedded into Android (already) Need to play in social & mobile to be a true winner Lucy Nieto
Bring your popcorn, it’s going
to be epicPublic companies with$ billions in war chestsGrudge match between DeNA & Gree Zynga: “win mobile at any cost” Core publishers can’tignore stagnant revenue vs. >20% CAGR ScypaxPictures