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Future of socialgames  BrowserGamesForum 2011                           Kappuru
Jmaz Photo
MRBill
Lies             Damn lies           Statistics         PredictionsXurble
Cross promo 150 million MAU  #rebelalliance    Social games     2008-2010       #failedConsole racing games     2004-2008 ...
!"#$%&(%)*+ ,$&&)%-*  %&"."/money                 AMagill
Global SNS Gaming Market10                  (US$ in Billions)                                                             ...
l go upa lotARPU wil Sh4rp_i          Kevin Dooley
ARPU comparison                 Adjusted for per capita incomeSource: Lazard Capital Markets and company reports
Zhent_But it will get very   expensive
5              465                                        <!3183=>*%?+                4                        9:;        ...
A 24% CAGR market willCompetition       attract late entrants               Mobile & Social convergence                   ...
pa rtners                      ?Publishing becomes typical
The cycle         A new platform is born ! Indies run wild ! “HOT HOT HOT!”                            Platform becomes su...
Self-publisherswill band together
Economies of                   Scale                            Cross promote                             Retain users    ...
Interest              Social              meets graph                graph   Shaniber
Mobage, Gree, Xbox Live on top of Facebook?         Avatars vs. real identity?
Real Social?Anirudh Kouhl
?      This could go either way          YES!                          NO!•  Higher ARPU               •  Much harder to c...
Wider variety
The drivers of variety       More HC                       More casual•  Tech: Flash 3D, game         •  Core FB audience ...
Social, mobile, Mobile social…It’s all the same
Identical audience, games, monetization      HTML5 + WebGL everywhere         Multi-screen games/IP      Facebook wins app...
Battle of thegiants Zynga vs. Nexonvs. Gree vs. DeNA vs. late entrants
Mobile                 SNSgaming               gaming  Console            Online            gaming
Bring your popcorn,        it’s going to be epicPublic companies with$ billions in war chestsGrudge match between    DeNA ...
Awesometime to bein games!             Kristina Alexanderson
jussi@applifier.com      @jussil                      Kristina Alexanderson
Future of Social Games
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Future of Social Games

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10 predictions for social games in the next three years. Presented at the BrowserGameForum 2011 in Frankfurt on Nov 18th 2011.

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Future of Social Games

  1. Future of socialgames BrowserGamesForum 2011 Kappuru
  2. Jmaz Photo
  3. MRBill
  4. Lies Damn lies Statistics PredictionsXurble
  5. Cross promo 150 million MAU #rebelalliance Social games 2008-2010 #failedConsole racing games 2004-2008 #flatout Stevendepolo
  6. !"#$%&(%)*+ ,$&&)%-* %&"."/money AMagill
  7. Global SNS Gaming Market10 (US$ in Billions) $9.0B9 Advertising87 24% CAGR654 $3.8B Virtual goods32 “Facebook is roughly half of this”10 0122 0120 0123 0124 0125 Source: Lazard Capital Markets
  8. l go upa lotARPU wil Sh4rp_i Kevin Dooley
  9. ARPU comparison Adjusted for per capita incomeSource: Lazard Capital Markets and company reports
  10. Zhent_But it will get very expensive
  11. 5 465 <!3183=>*%?+ 4 9:; 365 9:9 User 3 065acquisition 0 265 2 165 1 72821 70821 73821 74821 72822 70822 Social media advertising 4x in <5 years ! huge increase in competition & pricesContent Yes, a symphony orchestra soundtrack Soon: 3D? Cloud Gaming?
  12. A 24% CAGR market willCompetition attract late entrants Mobile & Social convergence “Pay to play” Developer & operations talent is scarce and fought overOperations Metrics, predictives, other operative systems are complex & expensive
  13. pa rtners ?Publishing becomes typical
  14. The cycle A new platform is born ! Indies run wild ! “HOT HOT HOT!” Platform becomes successful Everybody wants in, VCs throw in tons of money Costs go up, skills become more specialized, success isn’t easy Winners emerge, market consolidates VCs bow out (“market’s done”) Costs are up, distribution is hard, money is scarce ! Publishers enter the market But it is hard to publish a live game. Expect plenty of failures on the wayGuille
  15. Self-publisherswill band together
  16. Economies of Scale Cross promote Retain users Favorable terms Pick one: Succeed together Go solo, sink alone? Work for hire Exit the marketRobert Nilsson
  17. Interest Social meets graph graph Shaniber
  18. Mobage, Gree, Xbox Live on top of Facebook? Avatars vs. real identity?
  19. Real Social?Anirudh Kouhl
  20. ? This could go either way YES! NO!•  Higher ARPU •  Much harder to create•  More engaging •  Mini-MMOs worth the•  Better retention investment?•  PvP makes for great •  Do users on Facebook monetization really care?•  Opportunity for browser •  Real people are messy game makers? •  Does a soccer mom tolerate being griefed?
  21. Wider variety
  22. The drivers of variety More HC More casual•  Tech: Flash 3D, game •  Core FB audience looks for streaming bite sized diversions•  Mid-core makes more money •  Are social games getting a bit too complex for the core FB•  “Get away from Zynga” audience?•  Audience appetite for mid- •  “Just copy Nintendo” core, 200M players Where’s Brain Training?•  Lots of overlap between •  “Just copy Big Fish” console & social gamers ! look at Gardens of Time Lucy Nieto
  23. Social, mobile, Mobile social…It’s all the same
  24. Identical audience, games, monetization HTML5 + WebGL everywhere Multi-screen games/IP Facebook wins app discovery game for mobileGoogle+ embedded into Android (already) Need to play in social & mobile to be a true winner Lucy Nieto
  25. Battle of thegiants Zynga vs. Nexonvs. Gree vs. DeNA vs. late entrants
  26. Mobile SNSgaming gaming Console Online gaming
  27. Bring your popcorn, it’s going to be epicPublic companies with$ billions in war chestsGrudge match between DeNA & Gree Zynga: “win mobile at any cost” Core publishers can’tignore stagnant revenue vs. >20% CAGR ScypaxPictures
  28. Awesometime to bein games! Kristina Alexanderson
  29. jussi@applifier.com @jussil Kristina Alexanderson

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