Presented by Jimmy Smith at the ADSA (American Dairy Science Association)-ASAS (American Society of Animal Science)-CSAS (Canadian Society of Animal Science) Joint Annual Meeting on Linking Animal Science and Animal Agriculture: Meeting the global demands of 2050, Kansas City, Missouri, 20–24 July 2014

1. Mixed crop-livestock systems: Indispensable means to
achieving global food and nutritional security
Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI
Linking animal science and animal agriculture:
Meeting the global demands of 2050
ADSA-ASAS-CSAS Joint Annual Meeting
Kansas City, Missouri, 20–24 July 2014

2. Key messages
1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source
food, will continue to soar in developing countries
2 The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock production
systems of developing countries play huge (often
unnoticed) roles in global food supplies
3 On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’
crop-livestock farming systems present enormous
(largely untapped) opportunities to increase global
food security, to promote equitable economic growth
and to protect our environment and human health

3. Unprecedented demand for food,
especially animal-source food,
will continue to soar in developing countries
Key message 1
Unprecedented demand for food,
especially animal-source food,
will continue to soar in developing countries

4. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed
FAO 2006

5. Huge increases over 2005/7 amounts
of cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050
From 2bn−3bn
tonnes cereals each year
From 664m−1bn
tonnes dairy each year
From 258m−460m
tonnes meat each year

6. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAOSTAT 2014
(values for 2012)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Production(MT)millions
Netproductionvalue(Int$)billion
net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)
Cow milk has
overtaken rice
Eggs have
displaced
maize

7. FAO 2012
Based on anticipated changes in absolute tonnes of product from 2000 to 2030
Percentage growth in demand
for livestock products: 2000−2030

8. Change in global and regional demand for food:
Livestock and other commodities
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
developed developing SSA SA
%change2005/07to2050
cereals
root/tuber
meat
dairy
309%
Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012
Note that in South Asia, demand for meat is predicted to rise by 309%.

9. The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock
production systems of developing countries
play huge (often unnoticed)
roles in global food supplies
Key message 2

10. Most food of the world is produced
on small mixed crop-and-livestock farms
Developing-country
mixed crop-livestock
systems, most of them
smallholders, supply
a large proportion
of cereal and livestock
products
Herrero et al. 2009

11. Various sources:
BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominate production
in many countries
Region
(definition of
‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken
(meat)
Small
ruminant
(meat)
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa (≤
6 milking
animals)
60-90
Bangladesh
(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India (< 2ha
land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam
(small scale)
80
Philippines
(backyard)
50 35

12. Small-scale mixed crop-livestock
farmers are (surprisingly) competitive
East African dairy
• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd
• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers
• Small- and large-scale Kenyan dairy producers have same
levels of efficiency and profits
Vietnam pig industry
• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals
• Pig producers with 1−2 sows have lower unit costs
than those with more than 4 sows
• Industrial pig production could grow to meet
no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years
• Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork
IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

13. These mixed farming systems
produce much of our meat and milk
• Mixed systems are an important source
of ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050
– Europe: 42% mixed temperate
– Latin America: 48% mixed humid
– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
• Mixed systems are an equally important
source of milk
– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-
livestock farms, regardless of region
– The big increases in milk production
to 2050 will continue to be in mixed
systems, esp. in Africa/Middle East

14. Sources and sales of animal products
• 90% of animal products are
produced and consumed
in the same country or region
• Most are produced by smallholders
• Over 70% of livestock products
are sold ‘informally’
• 500 million smallholders produce
80% of the developing World’s
food. 43% of the workforce are
women

15. Soil fertility: 23% of nitrogen for crop production
in crop-livestock systems comes from manure

16. Animal traction remains essential for
crop production, especially in sub-Saharan Africa
7 million oxen are the main source of power
for tilling soil in the Ethiopian highlands

17. Key message 3
On-going transformations
of the world’s ‘mixed’
crop-livestock
farming systems
present enormous
(largely untapped)
opportunities to:
• increase food security
• promote equitable
economic growth and
• protect our environment
and human health

18. Criteria for a transformed livestock sector
• The environment
– Increased production through productivity
gains
– Production is more efficient
• The climate
– Adverse impacts on climate are mitigated
– Production adapts to changing climates
• Public health
– Consumption patterns are balanced
– Milk, meat, eggs are safe to consume
– Zoonotic diseases are controlled
• Equitable, inclusive growth
– Women benefit
– Smallholders benefit

19. Strong growth in developing-country
crop-livestock systems presents opportunities
• Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers,
it’s expected that:
﹣One-third will find alternate livelihoods
﹣One-third may or may not remain part of
the transformation of the livestock sector
﹣One-third will succeed at market-oriented
livestock livelihoods
• The transitions, including consolidation, in smallholder crop-
livestock systems that will take place in coming decades present
opportunities to increase food production and simultaneously
promote positive environment, equity and health benefits

20. Equitable, inclusive growth:
opportunities for women
Targeting opportunities for
women means taking account
of:
• Male-headed households have
larger livestock holdings than
women-headed households
• Women are more likely to own
small stock (poultry, sheep,
goats)
• Women use livestock differently
– more likely than men to use
livestock assets to respond to
crises
• Important role for women in
milking and milk processing

21. Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector
Strong growth
Intensifying, increasingly
market oriented, often
transformational
Fragile growth
Remoteness, marginal lands,
harsh climates restrict
intensification
High growth
with externalities
Intensified livestock systems
with challenges

22. Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
Ruminant meat and
milk, esp. in SSA, India
− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Sustainable
productivity
- Market access and
food safety
− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
Novel approaches
spanning sustainable
productivity, markets,
institutional and policy
issues, risk analyses
‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and
pastoral systems; little
part in the production
response
− Multiple endemic
diseases
− Zoonoses
− Adaptive capacity
− Movement controls
Mostly public sector
interventions, mitigating
vulnerability, improving
resilience
‘High growth
with
externalities’
Mostly monogastric
− China for all
commodities
− Environmental
- Drug resistance
− Climate impacts on
new vector and
pathogen dynamics
− Disease scares
Modalities of operation
with private sector
largely established.
Managing environment
and health risks and
consumer demand
Distinguishing opportunities

23. Food, equity,
environment, health
Policies
Animal health
★Vaccines
★Diagnostics
★Delivery systems
Markets & institutions
★New business
arrangements
★Good access to
markets
Health & nutrition
★Risk- not rule-based regulations
★Controlled zoonoses
★Balanced diets
Environment
★High feed efficiency
★Wide use of crop
residues
Feed
★Viable feed markets
★Improved feeds/feed strategies
★Judicious biomass use
Genetics
★Improved local
breeds
★Breeds well-matched
to environments

24. Key messages
1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source
food, will continue to soar in developing countries
2 The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock production
systems of developing countries play huge (often
unnoticed) roles in global food supplies
3 On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’
crop-livestock farming systems present enormous
(largely untapped) opportunities to increase global
food security, to promote equitable economic growth
and to protect our environment and human health

25. Thank youThank youThank you

26. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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