The document provides updates on security threats from several regions. In Yemen, southern forces seized parts of Aden undermining the internationally recognized government. In Kenya, the opposition inaugurated its leader as "people's president" challenging the legitimacy of the election. In Tunisia, a new opposition group attempted to reignite protests against austerity measures.

1. 1
Threat Update: January 30, 2018
Iran Iranian officials are preparing for a renewed crackdown on Iranians’
cyberspace access after protesters used foreign messaging
applications to organize the recent demonstrations. Clerics and
parliamentarians have called on President Rouhani’s administration to
increase efforts that prevent users from circumventing blocks on certain
websites and to create domestic alternatives to foreign applications.
Southern Yemeni forces seized key parts of Aden city, undermining the
internationally recognized government and jeopardizing the U.S. policy
objective to unify Yemen. The southerners’ bid for autonomy will draw
military forces away from operations against both al Qaeda in Yemen and
the al Houthi movement.
Yemen
Kenya’s opposition party inaugurated its leader as the “people’s president”
to challenge the legitimacy of President Uhuru Kenyatta. An election
dispute that began in August 2017 has divided Kenya deeply. It could lead
to domestic unrest that risks destabilizing a regional power and
drawing resources away from the fight against al Shabaab.
Kenya

2. 2
Threat Update: January 30, 2018
Tunisia
A new Tunisian opposition organization, Fech Nestanew, attempted to
reignite mass anti-austerity protests that dissipated after government
concessions. The organization formed a national committee and planned
a rally in Tunis. Fech Nestanew will struggle to spark mobilization
outside of the capital without a significant trigger event.
Mali The potential merger of ISIS in the Greater Sahara with AQIM’s affiliate in
Mali would improve the effectiveness of Salafi-jihadi groups in the
Sahel. Leadership from both groups planned two joint complex attacks on
Malian military positions that demonstrated increased coordination and
advanced attack capabilities.
Mainstream Pakistani opposition parties are attempting to establish a
coalition against the ruling party before the 2018 general election. Top
opposition leaders attempted to unify but failed to overcome rivalries. The
largest anti-American party may now join with smaller nationalist and
conservative religious parties in a bid to oust the ruling party from power.
Pakistan
Libya Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar’s inability to
secure Benghazi and control allied militias is diminishing his domestic
and international support. Continued instability will weaken Haftar
further, but he will remain a leading presidential candidate in 2018.

3. Yemen
3Randy Morton
Southern forces seize key infrastructure in
Aden from Hadi government
29 JAN: Anti-al Houthi militias
threatened to abandon an
offensive against al Houthi forces
in western Yemen to counter the
STC in Aden.
29 JAN: The U.S. Department of
State called for dialogue between
forces clashing in Aden, emphasizing
the need for political negotiations to
unify the Yemeni state.
3
28 JAN: The Transitional Political
Council of the South (STC) gave
President Hadi an ultimatum to
dismiss his cabinet by January 28.
21
30 JAN: STC forces
surrounded Hadi’s cabinet in the
Ma’ashiq Presidential Palace.
4

4. Horn of
Africa
4Peter Cialone
Protest inauguration extends Kenyan political
crisis
Neutral event
Event favoring opposition
Event favoring Kenyatta
28 NOV: President Uhuru
Kenyatta began his second term
after winning a re-run election
boycotted by the opposition.
2
30 JAN: The opposition
party swore in Raila Odinga
as the “people’s president.”
3
01 SEP: The Kenyan Supreme
Court nullified the results of the
presidential election.
1
Legend

5. Libya
5Tomas Padgett Perez
Benghazi killings undermine Libyan National
Army commander’s leadership
07 JUL: LNA Commander Khalifa
Haftar declared complete victory over
militants in Benghazi. Fighting
continued until 28 DEC, when he
declared the city secure again.
1
23 JAN: Militants detonated two VBIEDs
in Salmani District, Benghazi, marking the
deadliest attack since the LNA declared
the city secure in DEC 2017.
24 JAN: Warfalli executed ten
suspected militants on video in
Benghazi, drawing international
condemnation and renewed
calls for his extradition.
15 AUG: The International Criminal
Court issued an arrest warrant for
LNA Major Mahmoud al Warfalli.
2
3
4

6. Sahel
6Bryan Gilday
Salafi-jihadi attacks demonstrate coordination
and advanced capabilities
1. 25 JAN: Suspected
JNIM militants attacked a
Malian army position
near Youwarou.
2. 25 JAN: Suspected
JNIM militants attacked a
Malian army position
near Segou.
3. 27 JAN: JNIM militants
conducted a complex
attack on a Malian army
base near Soumpi. ISGS
may have supported this
attack.
4. 28 JAN: Salafi-jihadi
militants conducted a
complex attack on a
Malian army base near
Menaka. ISGS and JNIM
leadership may have
coordinated to plan the
attack.
Youwarou
Timbuktu Region
Segou
MenakaSoumpi
Gao Region
Mopti Region
BURKINA FASO
Segou Region
MALI
NIGER

7. Pakistan
7
Formerly Affiliated:
Matthew Cassidy
Opposition parties attempt new coalitions
NOV 2017: Several religious
parties formed the Muttahida
Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) coalition.
JAN 2018: Pakistan Awami Tehrik leader
Tahirul Qadri formed an informal coalition of
mainstream opposition parties to protest
against the ruling PML-N party.
JAN 2018: The PTI party left
opposition party demonstrations
due to rifts with the PPP.
1
2
Religious Secular
Anti-U.S.
Pro-U.S.
Legend
Political Party:
Affiliated:
Military-backed Party:
'
JAN 2018: PTI leader Imran Khan
hinted at working with conservative
religious parties.
4
Potential Affiliation:

8. Maghreb
8
Fech Nestanew attempts to reignite
demonstrations
Bryan Gilday
14 JAN: Anti-austerity protests
on the anniversary of the 2011
Jasmine Revolution quieted
after the government deployed
security forces and announced
concessions.
26 JAN: Fech Nestanew protesters clashed with
security forces outside the Tunisian Parliament.
The planned protests occurred on the 40th
anniversary of the “Black Thursday” clashes
between protesters and the Bourguiba regime.
Demonstrations did not spread beyond Tunis
and regions prone to frequent unrest.

9. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
9

10. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
10
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly