Recent protests in Iran over the imprisonment of religious members have escalated into violence, prompting fears of renewed anti-regime demonstrations. Ethiopia's declaration of a nationwide state of emergency follows the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn amidst ongoing protests, potentially leading to widespread unrest. Meanwhile, al Qaeda's leader Ayman al Zawahiri has called for unity among supporters to establish shari’a governments, aiming to reinvigorate revolutions in the region.

1. 1
Threat Update: February 20, 2018
Iran The Gonabadi Dervish protests in Tehran may light the fuse for the
resumption of anti-regime protests throughout Iran. Protests over the
unjust imprisonment of religious members in Tehran soon turned
violent on February 19, resulting in the imprisonment of 360 protesters
and the death of at least five security officials. Regime denials of licenses
for peaceful protests and subsequent regime attempts to quell gatherings
may result in marginalized Iranians taking to the streets once again
to challenge the regime as they did in late December 2017.
Ethiopia The Ethiopian government declared a nationwide state of
emergency that may signal unwillingness to concede to protesters in the
aftermath of Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn’s
resignation. A violent crackdown by the ruling party risks causing
widespread unrest that would destabilize a key regional state and
force Ethiopia to withdraw forces fighting al Shabaab in Somalia.
al Qaeda
Network
Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri reiterated his call for unity among
supporters to establish shari’a-based governments. Zawahiri evoked the
Arab Spring’s seventh anniversary and the upcoming Egyptian election to
reinvigorate revolutions aimed at overthrowing secular regimes. Zawahiri
also emphasized the need for unity in Syria in response to the
splintering of al Qaeda’s Syrian branch.

2. 2
Threat Update: February 20, 2018
SNA and AMISOM forces are recapturing villages and reopening roads
blockaded by al Shabaab in the Lower Shabelle region, disrupting one
of the primary support zones that al Shabaab uses to project force
into central Somalia. Al Shabaab has attempted to counter the offensive
with assassinations and IED attacks.
Somalia
AQAP launched a counteroffensive against Emirati-backed forces in
eastern Yemen. A recent Emirati-led operation disrupted AQAP supply
routes and safe havens in Hadramawt governorate. Emirati-led
counterterrorism operations have pressured AQAP in its safe havens
in eastern Yemen.
Yemen
Leadership attrition may contribute to the fracturing of AQIM’s affiliate
in Mali. French airstrikes killed several of the group’s senior leaders in
northern Mali, including a lieutenant who previously commanded part of
Ansar al Din. A contingent of former Ansar al Din militants later defected
from JNIM and swore an oath to ISIS, signaling a potential expansion of
ISIS’s network in the Sahel.
Mali

3. Horn of
Africa
3Peter Cialone
Ethiopian ruling party foregoes concessions to
de-escalate political crisis
15 FEB: Prime Minister Hailemariam
Desalegn resigned after months of sustained
protests in the Oromia region. Desalegn will
remain as caretaker until the ruling party
names a replacement.
16 FEB: The Ethiopian
Council of Ministers declared
a six-month nationwide state
of emergency, citing the
volatile security situation.
2
3
12-14 FEB: Activists held a strike
against the Ethiopian
government’s detention of political
opposition members. The
Ethiopian attorney general
released hundreds of prisoners,
including top opposition member
Bekele Gerba, on 13 FEB.
1

4. Al Qaeda
Network
4Matthew Cassidy
Al Qaeda Emir Zawahiri attempts to unify
supporters
09 JUN: Zawahiri called on
supporters to unify against
the West regardless of
national or ethnic
background.
26 JAN: Zawahiri urged
supporters to unify and
reinvigorate the Arab Spring in
order to establish shari’a
governments throughout the
Muslim world.
20 FEB: Zawahiri urged
groups in Syria to unify and
remain committed to the
establishment of shari’a-based
governance in the Levant.
1 2 3

5. Sahel
5Bryan Gilday
JNIM militants defect to ISIS following the
deaths of leaders
14 FEB: French airstrikes killed two
of JNIM leader Iyad ag Ghali’s top
lieutenants in Kidal region, northern
Mali. One of the militants killed was a
former Ansar al Din commander and
advisor to ag Ghali.
18 FEB: JNIM militants
formerly affiliated with Ansar al
Din defected from the group and
pledged loyalty to ISIS.
1 2

6. Yemen
6Randy Morton
AQAP launches counteroffensive against
Emirati-backed forces in eastern Yemen
14 FEB: Coalition-backed forces
established new security checkpoints
at access points to the al Mesini
valley.
* Approximate location
17 FEB: AQAP militants fired two
Grad rockets at an Emirati-
backed forces in Daw’an district.
16 FEB: AQAP destroyed a
security building in response
to Emirati and Yemeni
operations in Amd district.
*
Hadramawt Governorate

7. Horn of
Africa
7Peter Cialone
SNA and AMISOM forces disrupt al Shabaab
south of Mogadishu
1. 12 FEB: SNA forces recaptured
Mubarak, Darusalaam, and
Awdheegle from al Shabaab. They
destroyed two vehicles carrying IEDs
toward Mogadishu.
2. 14 FEB: SNA and AMISOM forces
recaptured Sablale and Janale.
Forces advanced from Barawe.
3. 16 FEB: SNA and AMISOM forces
recaptured Torotorow. Forces
advanced from Baledogle Airbase.
4. 16 FEB: Al Shabaab conducted an
IED attack targeting SNA and U.S.
forces in Baledogle Airbase.
5. 17 FEB: Al Shabaab destroyed a
Ugandan AMISOM tank near
Barawe.
6. 18 FEB: SNA and AMISOM forces
clashed with al Shabaab near
Barawe.
1
2
3
4
5
6

8. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
8

9. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
9
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly