Extraordinary political or economic event Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)
iPhone Apps Store downloads1. April 2009 1.0 billion2. July 2009 1.5 billion3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion4. Dec 2009 …?-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics
Tweak to contexts
What are some metrics you use for extrapolation?
Multiple sources Should belongitudinal
Social networks Iterated resource feeds Scanner contributes content
Dynamic socialmedia venue
Is there a higher Scholarly education bubble? publication Digital humanities and/versus open on the rise access Adjunctification Higher education continues budgets Alternative online Computer learning hardware ecology Textbooks going Has the World ebook+ Wide Web hit its limit?January-Feb 2012 scan sample
Augmented reality International mainstreamed liberal education Social organization Maker culture on through social campus media High-speed trading Some tuition Global economic freezes, cuts stresses Intergenerational Rise of natural gas tensions: public + privateMarch 2012 scan sample
Next 20 years?ScreeningInteractingSharingFlowingAccessing Pattern recognition:Generating Deductions from scanning -Kevin Kelly
Propositions in time Shares to be traded
Continuous Quant. + Qual. Distributed Affordances of feedback play
Which alternative to PowerPoint will become most widely used on campuses?
Stories about futures Roles and times Event and response Emergent practices and Creativity patterns
Build upon other methods: Select drivers – environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions – prediction markets
Assemble experts Probe for opinions Rank and distill ideas Reiterate
“[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews [We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones. A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression. Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”
People expect to be ableto work, learn, andstudy whenever andwherever they want to.
The technologies weuse are increasinglycloud-based, and ournotions of IT supportare decentralized.
The world of work isincreasinglycollaborative,driving changes in theway student projects arestructured.
The abundance ofresources andrelationships made easilyaccessible via the Internetis increasingly challengingus to revisit our roles aseducators.
Education paradigmsare shifting to includeonline learning,hybrid learning andcollaborative models.
There is a newemphasis in theclassroom on morechallenge-based andactive learning.
Economic pressures andnew models of educationare bringing unprecedentedcompetition to thetraditional models of highereducation.
Appropriate metrics ofevaluation lag theemergence of newscholarly forms ofauthoring, publishing,and researching.
Digital media literacycontinues its rise inimportance as a keyskill in everydiscipline andprofession.
Institutional barrierspresent formidablechallenges to movingforward in a constructiveway with emergingtechnologies.
New modes of scholarshipare presenting significantchallenges for libraries anduniversity collections, howscholarship is documented,and the business models tosupport these activities.
NITLE http://nitle.org Techne http://blogs.nitle.org/ NITLE prediction markets game http://markets.nitle.org/ Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander