The document discusses various techniques for environmental scanning, futures thinking, and scenario planning in education. It provides examples of topics that were scanned from literature and interviews to identify key drivers of change. An iterative process was used that involved assembling experts, probing opinions, ranking and refining ideas, and reiteration. The goal was to discern patterns and deduce potential implications for teaching, learning, research, and creative work.

4.  Extrapolation
 Environmental
scan
 Futures
market
 Scenarios
 Delphi

5.  Extraordinary political or economic event
 Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)

6. iPhone Apps Store downloads
1. April 2009 1.0 billion
2. July 2009 1.5 billion
3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion
4. Dec 2009 …?
-works with data sources
-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics

8. Tweak to contexts

10. What are some metrics
you use for
extrapolation?

11.  Multiple
sources
 Should be
longitudinal

12.  Social
networks
 Iterated
resource
feeds
 Scanner
contributes
content

13. Dynamic social
media venue

14.  Is there a higher  Scholarly
education bubble? publication
 Digital humanities and/versus open
on the rise access
 Adjunctification  Higher education
continues budgets
 Alternative online  Computer
learning hardware ecology
 Textbooks going  Has the World
ebook+ Wide Web hit its
limit?
January-Feb 2012 scan sample

15.  Augmented reality  International
mainstreamed liberal education
 Social organization  Maker culture on
through social campus
media  High-speed trading
 Some tuition  Global economic
freezes, cuts stresses
 Intergenerational  Rise of natural gas
tensions: public +
private
March 2012 scan sample

16. Next 20 years?
Screening
Interacting
Sharing
Flowing
Accessing Pattern recognition:
Generating Deductions from
scanning
-Kevin Kelly

18.  Propositions in time  Shares to be traded

20.  Continuous  Quant. + Qual.
 Distributed  Affordances of
feedback play

21. Which alternative to PowerPoint
will become most widely used
on campuses?

22. Stories about futures  Roles and times
 Event and response  Emergent practices and
 Creativity patterns

23. Build upon other methods:
 Select drivers – environmental
scan
 Identify trends – Delphi reports
 Test trends - extrapolation
 Test propositions – prediction
markets

24.  Assemble
experts
 Probe for
opinions
 Rank and
distill ideas
 Reiterate

26.  “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of
research, articles, papers, blogs, and
interviews
 [We] discussed existing applications and
brainstormed new ones.
 A key criterion was the potential relevance
of the topics to teaching, learning,
research, and creative expression.
 Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”

28. People expect to be able
to work, learn, and
study whenever and
wherever they want to.

29. The technologies we
use are increasingly
cloud-based, and our
notions of IT support
are decentralized.

30. The world of work is
increasingly
collaborative,
driving changes in the
way student projects are
structured.

31. The abundance of
resources and
relationships made easily
accessible via the Internet
is increasingly challenging
us to revisit our roles as
educators.

32. Education paradigms
are shifting to include
online learning,
hybrid learning and
collaborative models.

33. There is a new
emphasis in the
classroom on more
challenge-based and
active learning.

34. Economic pressures and
new models of education
are bringing unprecedented
competition to the
traditional models of higher
education.

35. Appropriate metrics of
evaluation lag the
emergence of new
scholarly forms of
authoring, publishing,
and researching.

36. Digital media literacy
continues its rise in
importance as a key
skill in every
discipline and
profession.

37. Institutional barriers
present formidable
challenges to moving
forward in a constructive
way with emerging
technologies.

38. New modes of scholarship
are presenting significant
challenges for libraries and
university collections, how
scholarship is documented,
and the business models to
support these activities.

39. NITLE
http://nitle.org
Techne
http://blogs.nitle.org/
NITLE prediction markets game
http://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitter
http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander