Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion

 Extrapolation Environmental scan Futures market Scenarios Delphi

 Extraordinary political or economic event Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)

iPhone Apps Store downloads1. April 2009 1.0 billion2. July 2009 1.5 billion3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion4. Dec 2009 …?-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics

Tweak to contexts

What are some metrics you use for extrapolation?

 Multiple sources Should belongitudinal

 Social networks Iterated resource feeds Scanner contributes content

Dynamic socialmedia venue

 Is there a higher  Scholarly education bubble? publication  Digital humanities and/versus open on the rise access  Adjunctification  Higher education continues budgets  Alternative online  Computer learning hardware ecology  Textbooks going  Has the World ebook+ Wide Web hit its limit?January-Feb 2012 scan sample

 Augmented reality  International mainstreamed liberal education  Social organization  Maker culture on through social campus media  High-speed trading  Some tuition  Global economic freezes, cuts stresses  Intergenerational  Rise of natural gas tensions: public + privateMarch 2012 scan sample

Next 20 years?ScreeningInteractingSharingFlowingAccessing Pattern recognition:Generating Deductions from scanning -Kevin Kelly

 Propositions in time  Shares to be traded

 Continuous  Quant. + Qual. Distributed  Affordances of feedback play

Which alternative to PowerPoint will become most widely used on campuses?

Stories about futures  Roles and times Event and response  Emergent practices and Creativity patterns

Build upon other methods: Select drivers – environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions – prediction markets

 Assemble experts Probe for opinions Rank and distill ideas Reiterate

 “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews [We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones. A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression. Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”

People expect to be ableto work, learn, andstudy whenever andwherever they want to.

The technologies weuse are increasinglycloud-based, and ournotions of IT supportare decentralized.

The world of work isincreasinglycollaborative,driving changes in theway student projects arestructured.

The abundance ofresources andrelationships made easilyaccessible via the Internetis increasingly challengingus to revisit our roles aseducators.

Education paradigmsare shifting to includeonline learning,hybrid learning andcollaborative models.

There is a newemphasis in theclassroom on morechallenge-based andactive learning.

Economic pressures andnew models of educationare bringing unprecedentedcompetition to thetraditional models of highereducation.

Appropriate metrics ofevaluation lag theemergence of newscholarly forms ofauthoring, publishing,and researching.

Digital media literacycontinues its rise inimportance as a keyskill in everydiscipline andprofession.

Institutional barrierspresent formidablechallenges to movingforward in a constructiveway with emergingtechnologies.

New modes of scholarshipare presenting significantchallenges for libraries anduniversity collections, howscholarship is documented,and the business models tosupport these activities.

NITLE http://nitle.org Techne http://blogs.nitle.org/ NITLE prediction markets game http://markets.nitle.org/ Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander

Horizon Report 2012: University of New Hampshire discussion

by Bryan Alexander

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