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Introduction to futuring in higher education: AAC&U 2012

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Introduction to my futuring talk. This sketches out major methods: extrapolation, prediction markets, scenarios, environmental scanning.
After this, I went over to Prezi to demo some scenarios: http://prezi.com/whxzhabagrec/four-futures-for-liberal-education-aacu-2012/

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Introduction to futuring in higher education: AAC&U 2012

  1. 1. Communitiesof practiceResearchJoint projectsOutreach
  2. 2.  Network platform: events f2f/online Partnerships Translation
  3. 3.  Extrapolation Environmental scan Delphi Futures marketScenarios
  4. 4.  Extraordinary political or economic event Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)
  5. 5. iPhone Apps Store downloads1. April 2009 1.0 billion2. July 2009 1.5 billion3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion4. Dec 2009 …?-works with data sources-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics
  6. 6. Tweak to contexts
  7. 7.  Multiple sources Should belongitudinal
  8. 8. Dynamic socialmedia venue
  9. 9. Next 20 years?ScreeningInteractingSharingFlowingAccessing Pattern recognition:Generating Deductions from scanning -Kevin Kelly
  10. 10.  Assemble experts Probe for opinions Rank and distill ideas Reiterate
  11. 11.  “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of research, articles, papers, blogs, and interviews [We] discussed existing applications and brainstormed new ones. A key criterion was the potential relevance of the topics to teaching, learning, research, and creative expression. Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”
  12. 12. Electronic Game-Based Books LearningMobiles Gesture- BasedAugmented Computing Reality Learning Analytics
  13. 13.  Propositions in time  Shares to be traded
  14. 14.  Continuous  Quant. + Qual. Distributed  Affordances of feedback play
  15. 15. Stories about futures  Roles and times Event and response  Emergent practices and Creativity patterns
  16. 16. Integrate previous methods Select drivers – environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions – prediction markets
  17. 17.  Is there a higher  Scholarly education bubble? publication  Digital humanities and/versus open on the rise access  Adjunctification  Higher education continues budgets  Alternative online  Computer learning hardware ecology  Textbooks going  Has the World ebook+ Wide Web hit its limit?January 2012 scan sample
  18. 18.  Social media Mobile devices Digital content, born and made Ferment of forms › Gaming › User-generated, remixed content
  19. 19. Broad and dynamicIndustrial disruptionDistance (or virtual) everythingGlobal default
  20. 20. Ever-increasing economic interpenetrationGlobal media boom/riptideReady cultural disruption“ “ innovation
  21. 21. Policy churnAccelerating business distributionDistant is the new nearbyNon-US educational drives
  22. 22. NITLE http://nitle.org Techne http://blogs.nitle.org/ NITLE prediction markets game http://markets.nitle.org/ Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander

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