This article define the KPIs of airports, how to define and set targets, it is about CDG Airport

1. Introduction:
Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (French: IATA: CDG, ICAO: LFPG), also known as Roissy Airport (name
of the local district), is the largest international airport in France. It is named after Charles de Gaulle
(1890–1970), leader of the Free French Forces during the Second World War, founder of the French Fifth
Republic and President of France from 1959 to 1969. Charles de Gaulle Airport is located within portions
of several communes 25 km (16 mi) to the northeast of Paris. The airport serves as the principal hub
for Air France as well as a European hub for fellow SkyTeam alliance partner Delta Air Lines. In 2015,
the airport handled 65,766,986 passengers and 497,763 aircraft movements, thus making it the world's
eighth-busiest airport and Europe's second-busiest airport (after London Heathrow) in terms of passenger
numbers. It is also the world's tenth busiest and it is Europe's second-busiest airport (after London
Heathrow) in aircraft movements.
By: Mohammed Salem Awad
Aviation Consultant
KPI for Airports:
Most of the airports in the world reports three
parameters that indicate the general performance
for airport activity. These are Passengers, Aircraft
Movements and
Air Cargo. These
parameters indicate the
KPI (Key Performance
Indicators).
This article address
Paris Charles de Gaulle
Airport, (CDG), we have
the historical data for
CDG Airport of 3 years
data base (2014-2016) on monthly bases, that may
create a base line to predict the future (2017).
Forecasting Model:
One of a new creative methodology. It basically
developed based on two main estimated mathematical
parameters, Displacement and Directional factors
which has a consequence impacts on R2 and Signal
Tracking by setting pre-boundary accuracy; The
basic data span is 36 months (Input) with 12 months
forecasting, the fair boundary restricted by the preset
design values of R2 and Signal Tracking.
The forecasting process has two stages, Evaluation,
and Forecasting. In the evaluation stage, we try
to analysis the input data, and align the practical
data with a mathematical model. we use state of art
forecasting program to fit data. Two control factors
have a great impact on the model, First displacement
factor (Displacement Issue), this factor acts to shift
the whole data from it running bath to a new one but
keeping the trend and direction of the analysis. While
the second factor is Directional factor, if we manipulate
this factor by using many trail values (positive
and negative value), the model will position itself
accordingly as a clock about the origin (Rotational
Issue).
For fair forecasting, the model should fulfill these
criteria – (Golden Rule)
Coefficient Of Determination
R2 ≥ 80 and
Signal Tracking should be
-4 ≤ S. T. ≤ + 4
CDGAirportParis Charles de Gaulle Airport
29AIRPORT ON SPOT
June, 2017
CargoCycle
Pax
Target
Rotational
Actual Year
CycleSummer
Session
Hajj
Session
Umra
Session
Winter
Session
Back to School
Session
Displacement
Forecasted
Year Cycle

2. Passengers Forecast - 2017:
Pax Forecast = 67,387,303 Pax
R2 = 95.04%,
Annual Growth = + 1.67%
Errors Range = + 9.43 to -8.16
Air Transport Movement Forecast
(Cycles) - 2017
Cycle Forecast = 471,599 cycle
R2 = 91.53%,
Annual Growth = + 0.36%
Errors Range = + 8.47 to -7.22
Air Cargo Forecast - 2017:
Cargo Forecast = 1,959,530 M.T.
R2 = 71.21%,
Annual Growth = + 1.27%
Errors Range = + 8.21 to -6.46
Air Mail Forecast - 2017:
Mail Forecast = 180,388 M.T.
R2 = 94.66%,
Annual Growth = - 1.90%
Errors Range = + 3.19 to -2.53
Case Study: Air Traffic Forecasting
30 AIRPORT ON SPOT
caa.gov.qa
35,847
33,751
37,813
38,934
41,571
41,740
43,985
43,919
38,972
41,311
36,399
37,358
8.47
7.22-
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
TotalCycles
TIME (Month)
CDG Airport
2017 Air transport Movement Forecast
By : M. S. Awadh
Forecast cycles (Column)
Errors
Forecast cycles (Line)
Actual cycles
Errors
Percentage
Cycle Forecast 2017 = 471,599 cycle
R2 = 91.53 % ,
Annual Growth = + 0.36 %
Errors Range = + 8.47 to -7.22
153,719
153,645
169,155
160,014
157,976
163,920
168,082
153,155
157,356
176,303
174,469
171,735
8.21
6.46-
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
AirCargo-MetricTonne
TIME (Month)
CDG Airport
2017 Air Cargo Forecast
By : M. S. Awadh
Forecast Cargo (Column)
Errors
Forecast Cargo (Line)
Actual Cargo
Errors
Percentage
Air Cargo (M.T.) Forecast 2017 = 1,959,530 M.T.
R2 = 71.21 % ,
Annual Growth = + 1.27 %
Errors Range = +8.21 to - 6.46
15,565
14,075
15,167
14,790
13,696
14,323
14,714
14,115
14,758
15,780
15,403
18,002
3.19
2.53-
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
AirMail-MetricTonne
TIME (Month)
CDG Airport
2017 Air Mail
Forecast
By : M. S. Awadh
Forecast Air Mail (Column)
Errors
Forecast Air Mail (Line)
Actual Air Mail
Errors
Percentage
Mail (M.T.) Forecast 2017 = 180,388 M.T.
R2 = 94.66 % ,
Annual Growth = - 1.90 %
Errors Range = +3.19 to - 2.53
4,808,772
4,522,042
5,234,830
5,602,618
5,909,309
6,159,927
6,688,721
6,866,607
5,626,697
5,970,111
4,858,540
5,139,129
9.43
8.16-
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
8,000,000
8,500,000
TotalPassengers
TIME (Month)
CDG Airport
2017 Passengers Forecast
By : M. S. Awadh
Forecast Pax (Column)
Errors
Forecast Pax (Line)
Actual Pax
Pax Forecast 2017 = 67,387,303 Pax
R2 = 95.04 % ,
Annual Growth = + 1.67 %
Errors Range = + 9.43 to -8.16
Errors
Percentage

3. Accuarcy Forecasting Matrix
(0.50)
(0.10)
0.10
0.30
(0.20)
(0.30)
- 0.50 1.00 1.50(1.00)(1.50)
Cycle
Cargo
RelativeR2
Relative
Signal Tracking
Pax
Mail
0.30
Factors Passengers Pax Aircraft Movements
Cycle
Air Cargo M. T. Air Mall M. T.
2017 Forecast 67,387,303 471,599 1,959,530 180,388
Annual Growth 1.67% 0.36% 1.27% -1.90%
R-Square 95.04% 91.53% 71.21% 94.66%
Errors Range +9.43 to -8.16 +8.47 to -7.22 +8.21 to -6.46 3.19 to -2.53
Mislead
Poor
Fair
Unrelated
Accuracy Forecasting Matrix:
The best way to define the forecasting
accuracy is to study the relations between R2
and Signal Tracking in the form of Accuracy
Forecasting Matrix
Most of analysis factors located in Mislead
Region, As Signal Tracking values are
greater than ± 4, but the Signal Tracking
values are distributed on both sides of the
basic trend line (also the errors) i.e, which
means no effect of displacement issue.
Resulting – Passengers, Aircraft Movement
and Air Mail have a high forecasting
accuracy which is consider a Fair Situation,
while Air Cargo is more likely to be poor
forecast level (R2 = 71.2 % and Signal
Tracking = 6.01).
Forecasting Results:
The result of forecasting is almost fairs as R is very high except Cargo, Cargo forecast is not good for monthly
target. However, it can be to annually forecast, using 12 month rolling method. For monthly targets, the Bar
graphs represents the values of these targets for each (Passengers, Air Craft Movements, Air Cargo, and Air
Mail.) while the corresponding errors written down in the same graph.
Summary
Three parameters will reflects the performance for airports, i.e Traffic Flow for Passengers, Aircraft
Movements and Air cargo Activities (Air Cargo + Air Mail). That create the base for KPIs performance
system for the airport. So by developing targets, and setting the company policy to define the threshold
values for KPIs levels we can measure the airport performance. In this article we address Air traffic
activity of CDG airport, the basic analysis reflects 3 years database. The seasonality models are well
defined When we compare the actual data with the model values. The models are fairly fitted with
coefficient of determinations are more likely greater than (91 %) except air cargo model which shows a
lower level of coefficient of determination (71.21%)
So 2017 Traffic Passengers = 67,387,303 Pax, at expect growth = 1.67%, 2017 Air craft Movement =
471,599 Cycle at expected growth = 0.36 %, 2017 Air Cargo = 1,959,530 M.T. at expected growth =
1.27%, 2017 Air Mail = 180,388 M.T. at expected growth = -1.90%
31AIRPORT ON SPOT
June, 2017
Factors Coefficient of
Determination
+ Signal
Tracking
Passengers 0.9504 4.98
A/C Movement 0.9153 5.40
Air Cargo 0.7121 6.01
Air Mail 0.9466 4.61