aircargo forecasting 2023, using leveling and displacement approach, based on IATA reports, we address supply (capacity) and demand.

1. Air Cargo
Forecasting
2023
By:
Mohammed Salem
Aviation Consultant
Aymen Mohammed
Aviation Researcher
Date of Issue : 8 April 2023

2. Introduction
• Shocks in Aviation History

3. Introduction
Spot Light in Dark Days

4. Introduction
Factors and constraints for Air Cargo growth

5. Air Cargo Market Analysis
• Demand in terms of CTKs

6. Air Cargo Market Analysis
• Available Capacity in
terms of ACTKs

7. Forecasting
• Forecasting is valid only in a stable economic environments –
but not in the cases of a force major such as a natural disaster,
a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a
deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
• So for time series, forecasting will be the mirror of the past with
an uncertain growth or not to repeat the hidden cycles ,
seasons and shocks that may will appear in the future with a
minimum acceptable margin errors .
Forecasting

8. Forecasting Model
Airline Forecasting Industry Model – Time Series

9. Forecasting Model
Directional and Displacement Factors
Directional Displacement

10. Forecasting Model
• Leveling Approach :
Directional
Displacement

11. Forecasting Model
• Leveling Approach :
(Slope = Zero)
Directional
Displacement
(The right Displacement factor define by
Minimum Least Square analysis which
consequently lead to the highest
Coefficient of Correlation )

12. Air Cargo – Demand (CTKs)
• Input :

13. Air Cargo - Demand
• Impact of Covid 19 :

14. Air Cargo - Demand
• Forecast Air Cargo Industry (Outline):

15. Air Cargo - Demand
• Forecast Air Cargo Industry (Details):

16. Air Cargo – Available Capacity
• Input

17. Air Cargo – Available Capacity
• Impact of Covid 19 :

18. Air Cargo – Available Capacity
• Forecast Air Cargo Industry (Normal Case):

19. Air Cargo – Available Capacity
• Forecast Air Cargo Industry (Case Covid 19 ):

20. Predicting Air Cargo Performance - 2023
• Load Factor ( L.F) 2023 Forecast :
Demand Forecast / Capacity Forecast
= 49.42 %

21. Predicting Air Cargo Performance - 2023
• Load Factor ( L.F) 2023 Forecast (Monthly):

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Summary
Forecasting is an important tool for planning, so without planning,
there will be a disaster that may happen, i.e what will happen in case of
Force Major (Covid 19).
But at that time, Air Cargo Industry is not significantly impact by
Covid 19, Before Covid 19 Air Cargo industry is stable and grow at
constant Growth,
Based of 2017,2018 and 2019 iata input data, the model is developed
for both, Supply (ACTKs) and demand (CTKs).
We used two scenarios : Normal Forecast and Displacement approach
that minimize errors of 2022 data
Obviously Air Cargo Industry utilise about 50 % of its capacity.

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References
https://www.iata.org/contentassets/dfe1378309804ee4bc111ce306df51ba/forecasti
ng-air-freight-demand.pdf
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo-
market-analysis---february-2023/

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