Three parameters will reflects the performance for airports, i.e Traffic Flow for passengers, Aircraft Movements and Air cargo Activities. That create the base for KPIs performance system in the airport. So by developing goals and targets, and setting the company policy to define the threshold values for KPIs levels. We address Air cargo activity of Heathrow airport, the basic analysis reflects 3 years data base. When we compare the actual data with the model, it looks that the last year data is fairly fitted while the remaining two years shows a considerable deviation and that why R is less than 80% ( i.e 78.1%) while the growth is 2.77%. also its noted the signal tracking analysis driven outside the boundary constrains i.e ± 9.95.

1. Heathrow Airport – 2015 Air Cargo Forecast
By: Mohammed Salem Awad
Aviation Consultant – Aden / Yemen
Introduction:
London Heathrow Airport (IATA:
LHR, ICAO: EGLL) is a major
international airport in West London,
England, United Kingdom. Heathrow
is the busiest airport in the United
Kingdom and the busiest airport in
Europe by passenger traffic.
Heathrow is also the third busiest
airport in the world by total passenger
traffic. In 2014, it handled a record
73.4 million passengers, a 1.4
increase from 2013.
Heathrow lies 12 nautical miles (22 km; 14 mi) west of Central London, and has two
parallel east–west runways along with five terminals on a site that covers 12.14 square
kilometers (4.69 sq mi). The airport is owned and operated by Heathrow Airport
Holdings, which itself is owned by FGP TopCo Limited, an international consortium
led by the Spanish Ferrovial Group that includes Caisse de dépôt et placement du
Québec and Government of Singapore Investment Corporation. Heathrow is the
primary hub for British Airways and the primary operating base for Virgin Atlantic.
The Airports Commission, an
independent commission chaired by Sir
Howard Davies and established in
September 2012 by the Government of
the United Kingdom has short-listed in
its interim report two options to expand
Heathrow along with a third option for
expanding Gatwick. The final report in
Summer 2015 will recommend how the
UK should maintain its global aviation
hub status.
The first phase of a new Terminal 2
complex opened in 2014. Terminal 5 was
voted Skytrax World's Best Airport
Terminal 2014 in the Annual World
Airport Awards.1
1
wiki

2. KPI For Airports:
Most of the airports in the world reports three parameters that indicate the general
performance for airport activity. These are Passengers, Aircraft Movements and
Cargo. these parameters indicate the KPI ( Key Performance Indicators).
In this sense, we have the historical data for Heathrow Airport of 3 years on monthly
bases, that may create a base line to predict the future.
Forecasting Model:
One of the new creative
methodology. It basically
developed based on two main
estimated mathematical
parameters, Displacement
and Directional factors which
has a consequence impacts on
R2
and Signal Tracking by
setting boundary accuracy:
The basic data span is 36
months ( Input ) with 12
months forecasting, the fair
boundary restricted by the
preset design values of R2
and
Signal Tracking. The
forecasting process has two stages, Evaluation, and Forecasting.
In the evaluation stage we try to analysis the input data, and align
the practical data with a mathematical model, we use state of art
forecasting program to fit data. Two control factors have a great
impact on the model, First displacement factor ( Displacement
Issue ), this factor acts to shift the whole data from it running
bath to a new one but keeping the trend and direction of the analysis. While the
second factor is Directional factor, definitely if we manipulate this factor and try to
use many trail values (positive and negative value), the model will position itself
accordingly as a clock about the origin( Rotational Issue ).
For Fair forecasting, the model should fulfill these criteria –
(Golden Rule)
R2
≥ 80 and
Signal Tracking should be
- 4 ≤ S. T. ≤ + 4

3. Case Study :
Air Cargo Movement - Heathrow Airport
Input Data (Metric Tonnes)
Max/Min Signal Tracking
Analysis
Most of accuracy approaches are
addressed one directional side
that reported by one figure,
while Max/Min Signal Tracking
Analysis deal with the boundary
region that reflects max/min
extreme values about the trend
line of the input data.
Forecasting
In the graphs, there are two
lines, one is actual value and the
other is forecast ,
The difference between actual
figures and model numbers
called model errors in evaluation
model part ( before future
forecasting period ) while the
deference the target values and
the reported actual figure that
occurs by running time. Called
performance.
Result:
Forecast of 2015
Cargo Volume (Metric Tonnes) – Heathrow Airport

4. Summary
Three parameters will reflects the performance for airports, i.e Traffic Flow for
passengers, Aircraft Movements and Air cargo Activities. That create the base for
KPIs performance system in the airport. So by developing goals and targets, and
setting the company policy to define the threshold values for KPIs levels.
We address Air cargo activity of Heathrow airport, the basic analysis reflects 3 years
data base. When we compare the actual data with the model, it looks that the last year
data is fairly fitted while the remaining two years shows a considerable deviation and
that why R is less than 80% ( i.e 78.1%) while the growth is 2.77%. also its noted the
signal tracking analysis driven outside the boundary constrains i.e ± 9.95.
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