it is concern forecasting in Aviation,
two case studies are addressded, i.e global world, and Delta Airline, which shows the impact of Covid19, and its recovery in the future.
3. Forecasting, Goals and Targets
• Forecasting is valid only in a stable economic environments –
but not in the cases of a force major such as a natural disaster,
a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a
deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
• So for time series, forecasting will be the mirror of the past with
an uncertain growth or not to repeat the hidden cycles ,
seasons and shocks that may will appear in the future with a
minimum acceptable margin errors .
Introduction
4. Introduction
Driver for Economic growth and
Air Traffic Methodologies
Demand vs Supply
In Aviation
Industry:
Forecasting
depends on the
analyst, data
sampling, and in
what scope should
we treat the
process of
forecast, as it is
involves many
drivers.
5. Introduction
• In Aviation Industry, Every One Has its own
Concept to Forecast and evaluate the Demand
based on their strategies and philosophy.
• Airbus philosophy is based on consolidation
“Hub-to-Hub”. Leadingto manufacture A380
• Boeing philosophy is based on Fragmentation
“Point-to-Point”. Leadingto manufacture B787
Dreamliner.
• That’s for longterm forecasting.
• But for short term forecasting, we always face the
seasonality term.
• General practice the Airline Industry Model can be
expressed by The ARIMA seasonal model.
• Yemenia – applied a new approach addressing
Signal tracking, that control the displacement and
rotational factors of the new model.
Manufacture Concept
11. Introduction
Black Swan Situation
Black Swan Theory:
A theory that suggests that rare events are unpredictable as if they were
impossible to happen.
The theory took its name from the swan, as it was widely believed that all birds
of this species were white, until black swans were discovered in Western
Australia in the 18th century.
- It is an unexpected surprise and have a significant impact, and
- After it occurs the explanations that it considers predictable appear.
The theory was described by The Black Swan in 2007. There are no agreed criteria by classifying an event as a "black
swan", so it could be a natural disaster, a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus
such as the Covid-19 pandemic, but, according to Naseem Nicola, black swan events usually have three main
characteristics:
- It has not occurred in the recent past, and
- the forecasting and forecasting tools used at the time of their occurrence cannot be monitored.
- It has a profound impact on societies around the world.
- They are inexplicable at the time they occur, and can only be absorbed long enough after they have occurred.
17. 17
Reading In The Future (Previous Work)
Cases :
1- Air berlin
2 - Turkish Airlines
3- Iceland air
4- IAG group
5- Air Canada
6- Ryan Air
7- Lufthansa
At :
https://www.slidesha
re.net/forecasting/pr
esentations
32. 32
US Carriers – Domestic Market
American Airlines, Skywest, SpirIt, & Hawaiian
33. 33
Results (Global)
Back To Norms : May 2023 – Jan 2024
Polling (LinkedIn) - Recovery On: 2024
Airbus Analysis = Recovery 2023 -2025
Passenger (RPKs) Details :
Pre-set Target 2021 = 9097 b. RPKs The Actual level
Dropped by 68.61 %
Pre-set Target 2022 = 9559 b. RPKs The Actual level
Dropped by 62.39 %
34. 34
Summary 1/2
Forecasting is an important tool for planning, so
without planning, there will be a disaster that may
happen, i.e what will happen in case of Force Major
Industry practice, we always use a point to point
analysis (Month by Month and Year by Year – YoY )
in terms of percentage which is reflected by V
shape Curve ( Black Swain Situation) in the current
situation. We just monitoring the situation –its
beyond your plans and controls.
In case of Airline industry, demand evaluation and
forecasting are a must. But we have first to define
the Recovery Period. Everyone has its own word.
We are addressed two Global Markets –
International and Domestics Markets to evaluate
the recovery period, which clearly shows that the
Domestic Market is in the final stage of recovery,
due the control of the local authority in the country.
35. 35
Summary 2/2
For Domestic Market - most of the big countries are
recovered, especially China, Russia and USA.
Example Delta Airline, shows a fast recovery for
Domestic Passengers, while internationally not.
While for International Market, the picture is different
Here the cross border rules, different authority, and
restrictions by different countries play a major part in
delay of International Market.
All signals indicate, that the airline industry will
recover by 2024.
Also for international operation still the world
suffering from COVID 19 – especially Europe. Due to
most of countries practicing the COVID 19 travelling
restriction between them.
While the crises between Russia and Ukraine is
another factor.