In 2012, a forecasting 2013 report for Malta International Airport is DONE, today, a second report is delivered, and using the same previous model, the result is fair and acceptable, using MAX/MIN signal tracking approach. Also update for the figures is done to forecast 2015.
8. MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
OUTLINE
Introduction
Objective
Conditions for Fair
Forecast
Data Base ( 5 Years
)
Passenger/Aircraft/
Cargo Forecast
2013
Max/Min Signal
Results
Accuracy
Conclusions
9. MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
The concept of
forecasting by
Objective is used.
Three DATA Sets
are addressed –
Passengers, A/C
Movements, and
Cargo.
Introduction
Using 3 years on monthly bases i.e 36 data
set
10. MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Max/Min Signal Tracking
approach
Objective
To forecast Passengers, Aircraft and Cargo
movements based on Max/Min Signal Tracking
approach. ( best forecasting scenario )
11. MALTA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Conditions for Fair
forecast
Coefficient Of
Determination
R2 > 80%
Signal Tracking
- 4 < S. T. < 4
22. CONCLUSIONS:
Traffic forecasting will be a positive trend at + 6% growth, it
will be expected to have 3,921,384 Pax in 2013. and shows
a fair seasonality patterned. (Evaluation shows a fair results
)
Aircraft Movements: in this category – results show a
negative trend, it expected to have 28,009 cycles in 2013,
this may be due to changing aircraft type to have more
capacity by the airlines operators in Malta airport.
Recommend to use most recent data method (2012) to
forecast to avoid negative trend.
For Cargo, there is no correlation even though a forecasting
patterned is developed, but that may not reflect a good
forecasting results. Cargo Movements - 15,199 Tonne
28. ACTUAL VS FORECAST 2014 ( MODEL UPDATED )
Annual Error
= -1.25 %
Using the
update input
figures for
2012-2014 .
Monthly
Errors always
less than 5%
for
2012,2013, &
2014.
29. FORECAST 2015 ( FOR RECORD )
Passenger
Forecast
2015 =
4,727,871
Pax