COVID-19 Analysis: June 24, 2020

Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary as apolitical as possible. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand
the COVID epidemic.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties and USAFacts has not updated the US data
by the time I leave for Stanford the analysis will be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
• USA Death Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_deaths_usafacts.csv
• USA Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
Models:
1. Future projections are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a
naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50% rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia has a good description:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function. The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases. These points
appear as red dots in the figures.
2. The rate of changed is based on a simple linear regression of new cases over the last 10 days, divided by the number of new cases yesterday.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, or locations of interest to friends and colleagues. Additionally, some locations
figure prominently in news reports (e.g., China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or have significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada,
Mexico). I am happy to add locations, just let me know.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 -- Deaths: 98,220 -- Deaths per 10,000: 3.1 -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
cases on June 30th,
based on the total
cases (see above) *
case mortality (see
below)
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, calculated
as red line (above) * mortality
(see below)
Red line: predicted new cases
based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the
red dots
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/5th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Funny bump: an artifact of the
Gompertz function, which
mathematically requires an
inflection in total cases.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Cumulative deaths
/ population *
10,000
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Yesterday’s
total cases
and deaths
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below

USA
2,485,803
128,396
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,347,022 -- Deaths: 121,228 -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
4

Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
34,507
1,327
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,919 -- Deaths: 1,304 -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
5

Western Europe
1,361,613
164,753
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,341,463 -- Deaths: 162,315 -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
6

Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-06-24
8

Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-06-24
10

Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

Deaths per million
AK
HI
ID
ME
VT
MT
WV
OR
OK
WY
ND
KS
UT
KY
TX
WA
TN
SD
NV
MI
WI
CO
IA
VA
NC
CA
OH
FL
SC
MO
MN
NH
NM
PA
GA
AR
AL
NY
NE
IN
CT
MD
LA
AZ
IL
NJ
DC
MS
MA
RI
DE
0
3
6
9
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
12

Percent Population Tested
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
PercentPopulationTested
Percent Population
13

Percent Positive Tests
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
PercentPositive(%)
Percent Positive Tests Over Last 28 Days
14

Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HIID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0 5 10 15 20
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-06-24
15

Alabama
36,950
1,027
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-06-24
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,097 -- Deaths: 864 -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: -4.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
16

Alaska
890
14
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 759 -- Deaths: 12 -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -4.2% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
17

Arizona
71,191
1,702
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 58,378 -- Deaths: 1,396 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +6.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
18

Arkansas
19,837
282
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 16,678 -- Deaths: 237 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
19

California
211,351
6,246
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,000
4,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 190,604 -- Deaths: 5,633 -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +5.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
20

Colorado
32,036
1,727
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
21

Connecticut
47,000
4,380
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 45,899 -- Deaths: 4,277 -- Case Mortality: 9.3% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
22

Delaware
11,202
520
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,847 -- Deaths: 504 -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, +1.5% Deaths
23

District of Columbia
10,502
559
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
24

Florida
116,750
3,652
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
25

Georgia
73,012
2,891
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
26

Hawaii
876
18
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10
20
30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 819 -- Deaths: 17 -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -1.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
27

Idaho
4,575
93
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,401 -- Deaths: 89 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +7.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
28

Illinois
142,592
6,939
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
29

Indiana
45,660
2,532
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
30

Iowa
28,566
746
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
31

Kansas
13,251
278
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
32

Kentucky
15,421
586
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
33

Louisiana
54,394
3,185
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
34

Maine
3,230
110
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
35

Maryland
68,879
3,321
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-06-24
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
36

Massachusetts
109,552
8,045
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
37

Michigan
71,496
6,405
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
38

Minnesota
36,305
1,511
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
39

Mississippi
24,314
1,050
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
40

Missouri
19,876
1,034
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
41

Montana
800
25
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 743 -- Deaths: 23 -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
42

Nebraska
19,089
273
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
43

Nevada
15,449
543
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
44

New Hampshire
5,884
362
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-06-24
0
30
60
90
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
45

New Jersey
172,208
13,138
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
46

New Mexico
11,736
515
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
47

New York
394,009
31,356
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
48

North Carolina
63,977
1,470
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
49

North Dakota
3,590
84
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
50

Ohio
48,607
2,882
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-06-24
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
51

Oklahoma
12,228
429
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
52

Oregon
8,266
218
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
53

Pennsylvania
85,596
6,691
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
54

Rhode Island
16,962
930
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
55

South Carolina
32,438
822
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-06-24
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
56

South Dakota
6,832
89
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
57

Tennessee
39,595
591
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
58

Texas
134,212
2,475
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
59

Utah
21,154
187
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
60

Vermont
1,233
59
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
61

Virginia
63,423
1,768
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-06-24
0
400
800
1,200
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
62

Washington
31,508
1,377
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
63

West Virginia
2,711
97
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
64

Wisconsin
27,408
811
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
65

Wyoming
1,357
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
66

Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-06-24
NA = Inadequate data
68

Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
69

Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
70

Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
71

Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
72

Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
73

Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
74

New York City
215,755
22,564
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
75

Westchester County, NY
34,888
1,429
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-06-24
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
76

Bergen County, NJ
19,332
1,729
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
77

Hudson County, NJ
18,911
1,277
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
78

King County (Seattle)
9,589
618
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
79

Clark County, Washington
705
32
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
80

Los Angeles
97,611
3,507
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
81

Bay Area
13,796
376
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
82

San Francisco
3,352
50
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
83

Santa Clara and San Mateo
6,946
269
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
84

Alameda County
5,584
130
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
30
60
90
120
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
85

San Luis Obispo, California
487
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
86

Fresno, California
4,211
80
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
87

Santa Barbara County
2,721
29
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
88

Merced County
795
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10
20
30
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
89

Yolo County
385
25
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
5.0
10.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
90

San Diego County
12,242
373
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
91

Imperial County
6,684
86
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
92

Multnomah County (Portland)
2,135
77
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
93

Utah County
3,724
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
94

Summit County, Utah
483
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 470 -- Deaths: NA -- Case Mortality: NA% -- Daily Change: +11.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
95

De Soto Parish, Louisiana
330
19
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
96

Dallas, Texas
19,549
358
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
97

Collin Texas
2,539
43
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
98

Harris County (Houston)
24,132
348
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County, Texas projection as of 2020-06-24
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
99

Tulsa County, Oklahoma
3,082
82
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-06-24
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
100

McLean County, Illinois
264
14
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
101

Cook County, Illinois
90,317
4,567
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
102

Suffolk County (Boston)
19,928
992
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
103

Polk County, Iowa
5,987
181
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
104

Johnson County, Iowa
788
8
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10
20
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
105

Erie County, New York
7,381
593
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
106

Oakland County, Michigan
12,978
1,190
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
107

St. Louis (City)
2,252
154
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
60
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
108

St. Louis (County)
6,042
587
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
109

Baltimore (City)
7,671
342
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
110

Durham County
3,714
69
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
25
50
75
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
111

Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
6,077
356
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
112

Wayne County (Detroit)
22,798
2,757
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
113

Miami-Dade
29,254
984
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
114

Maricopa County
42,068
823
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
115

Denver County
6,933
382
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
116

Arapahoe County
5,144
352
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-06-24
0
50
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
117

Montrose County
209
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-06-24
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 201 -- Deaths: 12 -- Case Mortality: 6.0% -- Daily Change: -6.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
118

Italy
240,699
34,946
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
120

Spain
248,760
28,986
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
121

Portugal
41,859
1,622
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-06-24
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
122

France
198,725
29,861
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
123

Germany
193,948
8,982
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
124

Switzerland
31,447
1,963
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-06-24
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
125

Austria
17,583
700
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-06-24
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
126

Sweden
68,986
5,852
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Sweden projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
127

Netherlands
51,175
6,266
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
128

United Kingdom
316,830
44,290
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
129

Iceland
1,827
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
130

Israel
22,492
322
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
131

Canada
106,964
8,774
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-06-24
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
132

Australia
7,563
104
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-06-24
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
133

New Zealand
1,515
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-06-24
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
134

China
84,754
4,646
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,000
4,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
135

South Korea
12,816
287
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
136

Singapore
45,002
28
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-06-24
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
137

Japan
18,164
980
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-06-24
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
138

South Africa
137,545
2,725
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
139

Iran
227,098
10,668
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-06-24
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
140

Brazil
1,358,542
62,414
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-06-24
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,145,906 -- Deaths: 52,645 -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
141

Russia
667,596
9,307
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
142

India
548,051
17,391
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-06-24
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
143

Pakistan
231,761
4,606
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
144

Mexico
224,484
27,416
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-06-24
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
145

Case Mortality vs. Testing
BHR
LUX
ISL
DNK
LTU
RUS
QAT
PRT
BLR
ISR
KWT
USA
ITA
AUS
IRL
EST
MDV
BEL
LVA
NZL
KAZ
ESP
CAN
GBR
AUT
DEU
CHE
SGP
NOR
CHLSRB
CZE
SVN
FIN
SWE
SAU
SVK
POL
TUR
ROU
NLD
GRC
HUN
PAN
KOR
ZAFSLV
MYS
HRV
BGR
IRN
URY
MAR
CUB
UKR
COL
GHA
RWA
PRY
THA
PER
ARG
ECU
TUN
CRI
IND
PAK
BOL
PHL
NPL
SENBGD
MEX
JPN
UGA
TWN
VNM
KEN
BRA
ETH
ZWE
IDN
MMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 10 20
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-06-24
146

COVID-19 Analysis: June 24, 2020

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COVID-19 Analysis: June 24, 2020