This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 data from the United States and other parts of the world. It includes caveats about the analysis being the author's own and not affiliated with Stanford University. Data sources and modeling approaches are described. Graphs show trends in cases, deaths, testing rates, and other metrics for US states and other locations over time. The analysis aims to be apolitical and provide daily updates on the COVID-19 situation.

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand the COVID
epidemic. I occasionally point out misrepresentations by government officials. Additionally, as the crisis has worsened, I will point out where government
recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties my analysis my be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 −

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
cases on Jyly 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. US v. Asia and Europe
3

4. USA
4,399,258
147,993
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,431,574 (67,417) -- Deaths: 136,466 (900) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
4

5. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
43,493
1,354
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 39,588 (358) -- Deaths: 1,331 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
5

6. Western Europe
1,409,327
168,150
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,373,123 (2,814) -- Deaths: 165,469 (171) -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
6

7. US States
7

8. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-07-15
8

9. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

10. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-07-15
10

11. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

12. Total cases per million
HI
MT
VT
AK
WV
ME
OR
WY
NH
KY
MO
OK
WA
OH
ND
WI
CO
ID
KS
NM
MN
MI
IN
PA
VA
SD
NC
CA
UT
NV
TX
TN
AR
NE
IA
GA
AL
SC
MD
IL
MS
DE
CT
FL
DC
MA
RI
AZ
LA
NJ
NY
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totalcasespermillionpopulation
Total cases to date
Total US COVID-19 Cases
12

13. Case rates per million
VT
ME
NH
CT
HI
NJ
NY
MA
MI
WY
PA
SD
WV
RI
AK
OR
CO
DC
IN
MT
KY
IL
DE
WA
MD
VA
MN
MO
ND
OH
NE
NM
WI
KS
IA
OK
NC
UT
AR
CA
ID
MS
TN
NV
AL
GA
TX
SC
LA
AZ
FL
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagenewcasesperdaypermillionpopulation
Average over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Case Rates
13

14. Total deaths per million
HI
AK
MT
WY
WV
ID
OR
UT
ME
VT
KS
OK
AR
TN
ND
TX
SD
WI
KY
NE
NC
MO
CA
WA
SC
NV
FL
VA
AL
IA
OH
NM
MN
GA
NH
CO
AZ
IN
MS
DE
PA
MD
IL
MI
LA
DC
RI
MA
CT
NY
NJ
0
500
1000
1500
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Totaldeathspermillionpopulation
Total deaths to date
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
14

15. Deaths rates per million
VT
WV
AK
NE
HI
WY
ME
KS
ID
WI
DE
CO
MN
OR
OK
NH
WA
KY
CT
NY
DC
MO
MT
ND
MI
IA
UT
IN
OH
AR
NC
SD
PA
VA
MD
GA
TN
NM
CA
MA
RI
TX
NV
FL
IL
AL
LA
SC
NJ
MS
AZ
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
15

16. Percent tested by state
HI
WY
CO
OR
ID
PA
KS
MO
IN
OH
TX
WA
ME
VA
AZ
NH
SC
KY
SD
GA
AL
MD
OK
NE
MT
NV
MS
WV
NC
IA
WI
VT
FL
AR
UT
MI
MN
MA
CA
DE
TN
IL
ND
RI
CT
DC
NJ
NM
AK
LA
NY
0
10
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
PercentTested
Percent Tested
16

17. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
17

18. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
18

19. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OKOR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TNTX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WVWI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
10 15 20 25
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-15
19

20. Mortality Trends
0
5
10
15
CaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily Smoothed
Daily vs. Cumulative Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
20

21. Alabama
81,713
1,438
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 57,255 (1,710) -- Deaths: 1,164 (40) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
21

22. Alaska
2,451
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-07-15
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,579 (40) -- Deaths: 17 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +6.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
22

23. Arizona
198,646
3,360
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 128,097 (4,273) -- Deaths: 2,337 (91) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
23

24. Arkansas
41,227
434
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-07-15
0
300
600
900
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,812 (873) -- Deaths: 331 (8) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +3.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
24

25. California
499,391
8,816
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 346,211 (12,854) -- Deaths: 7,250 (161) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
25

26. Colorado
42,439
1,788
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,668 (450) -- Deaths: 1,738 (11) -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
26

27. Connecticut
48,709
4,423
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 47,530 (20) -- Deaths: 4,372 (1) -- Case Mortality: 9.2% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
27

28. Delaware
14,931
530
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,969 (90) -- Deaths: 518 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -6.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
28

29. District of Columbia
11,499
597
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,946 (40) -- Deaths: 568 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
29

30. Florida
481,635
5,525
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 291,629 (9,194) -- Deaths: 4,409 (132) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
30

31. Georgia
175,029
3,324
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 123,963 (3,391) -- Deaths: 3,054 (28) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
31

32. Hawaii
1,665
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,264 (21) -- Deaths: 22 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
32

33. Idaho
21,663
116
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,720 (316) -- Deaths: 103 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
33

34. Illinois
170,392
8,095
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 156,638 (707) -- Deaths: 7,419 (25) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: -3.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
34

35. Indiana
59,903
2,972
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 52,685 (648) -- Deaths: 2,775 (13) -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +2.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
35

36. Iowa
44,201
813
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,866 (235) -- Deaths: 757 (2) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -4.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
36

37. Kansas
26,497
340
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,887 (242) -- Deaths: 299 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
37

38. Kentucky
24,967
731
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,223 (570) -- Deaths: 635 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
38

39. Louisiana
108,338
3,703
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 82,042 (2,215) -- Deaths: 3,445 (22) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
39

40. Maine
4,057
126
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20
40
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,566 (8) -- Deaths: 114 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: -3.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
40

41. Maryland
80,405
3,543
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 74,260 (733) -- Deaths: 3,334 (9) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +5.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
41

42. Massachusetts
115,117
8,711
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 112,130 (303) -- Deaths: 8,340 (10) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
42

43. Michigan
84,686
6,514
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 77,864 (666) -- Deaths: 6,326 (5) -- Case Mortality: 8.1% -- Daily Change: +0.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
43

44. Minnesota
50,663
1,662
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 43,170 (398) -- Deaths: 1,548 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
44

45. Mississippi
51,146
1,550
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,542 (862) -- Deaths: 1,272 (22) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
45

46. Missouri
38,308
1,212
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,240 (951) -- Deaths: 1,114 (9) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
46

47. Montana
3,506
41
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,952 (109) -- Deaths: 34 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +5.6% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
47

48. Nebraska
24,155
320
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,717 (318) -- Deaths: 288 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +7.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
48

49. Nevada
44,043
723
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 29,619 (1,104) -- Deaths: 612 (19) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
49

50. New Hampshire
6,443
433
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,091 (23) -- Deaths: 392 (1) -- Case Mortality: 6.4% -- Daily Change: +1.4% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
50

51. New Jersey
180,127
16,925
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-07-15
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 175,915 (393) -- Deaths: 15,582 (22) -- Case Mortality: 8.9% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
51

52. New Mexico
19,727
620
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,514 (223) -- Deaths: 551 (3) -- Case Mortality: 3.6% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
52

53. New York
412,416
32,921
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 403,175 (912) -- Deaths: 32,408 (13) -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: +2.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
53

54. North Carolina
121,026
1,764
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 90,000 (2,331) -- Deaths: 1,571 (42) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
54

55. North Dakota
5,370
98
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-07-15
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,493 (51) -- Deaths: 88 (1) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +4.2% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
55

56. Ohio
87,528
3,396
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 67,995 (1,142) -- Deaths: 3,069 (5) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
56

57. Oklahoma
32,785
478
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-15
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 21,740 (994) -- Deaths: 428 (4) -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
57

58. Oregon
17,897
286
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,805 (367) -- Deaths: 244 (7) -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
58

59. Pennsylvania
111,824
7,316
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 101,266 (936) -- Deaths: 6,931 (20) -- Case Mortality: 6.8% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
59

60. Rhode Island
18,154
1,052
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,588 (101) -- Deaths: 985 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +11.5% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
60

61. South Carolina
90,990
1,390
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 60,389 (2,221) -- Deaths: 993 (21) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
61

62. South Dakota
8,557
135
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,572 (48) -- Deaths: 109 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -5.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
62

63. Tennessee
93,873
1,000
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 66,788 (1,514) -- Deaths: 767 (18) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +4.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
63

64. Texas
450,652
4,561
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 279,577 (9,799) -- Deaths: 3,362 (86) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
64

65. Utah
41,991
293
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 30,478 (448) -- Deaths: 226 (10) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
65

66. Vermont
1,394
56
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-07-15
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,305 (4) -- Deaths: 56 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.3% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
66

67. Virginia
81,854
2,346
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
400
800
1,200
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 72,443 (801) -- Deaths: 1,977 (9) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +4.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
67

68. Washington
53,480
1,595
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,304 (547) -- Deaths: 1,438 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
68

69. West Virginia
5,999
101
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,407 (94) -- Deaths: 97 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -4.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
69

70. Wisconsin
48,835
886
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-07-15
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,906 (964) -- Deaths: 826 (5) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
70

71. Wyoming
2,580
23
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20
40
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,950 (47) -- Deaths: 22 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
71

72. US Counties
72

73. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-07-15
NA = Inadequate data
73

74. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
74

75. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
75

76. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
76

77. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
77

78. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
78

79. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
79

80. New York City
224,091
23,666
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 219,616 (315) -- Deaths: 23,336 (13) -- Case Mortality: 10.6% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
80

81. Westchester County, NY
35,911
1,454
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,366 (39) -- Deaths: 1,435 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
81

82. Bergen County, NJ
20,534
2,176
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,907 (16) -- Deaths: 2,032 (2) -- Case Mortality: 10.2% -- Daily Change: -11.0% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
82

83. Hudson County, NJ
19,333
1,566
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,333 (0) -- Deaths: 1,487 (3) -- Case Mortality: 7.7% -- Daily Change: +0.0% Cases, -1331643689174145.8% Deaths
83

84. King County (Seattle)
14,532
671
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,213 (136) -- Deaths: 637 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +6.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
84

85. Clark County, Washington
1,599
34
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,086 (8) -- Deaths: 33 (0) -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: -11.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
85

86. Los Angeles
186,573
4,552
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 140,576 (4,219) -- Deaths: 3,897 (73) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
86

87. Bay Area
33,571
484
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,150 (859) -- Deaths: 433 (24) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
87

88. San Francisco
5,843
52
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,640 (50) -- Deaths: 50 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
88

89. Santa Clara and San Mateo
14,593
310
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,893 (306) -- Deaths: 294 (15) -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +7.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
89

90. Alameda County
11,047
176
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,321 (345) -- Deaths: 152 (4) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +8.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
90

91. San Luis Obispo, California
1,676
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-07-15
0
30
60
90
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,078 (72) -- Deaths: 5 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +12.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
91

92. Fresno, California
14,605
113
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,756 (474) -- Deaths: 91 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +0.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
92

93. Santa Barbara County
5,803
34
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,323 (392) -- Deaths: 31 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.7% -- Daily Change: +9.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
93

94. Merced County
4,135
14
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,183 (299) -- Deaths: 13 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +8.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
94

95. Yolo County
1,699
40
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 999 (70) -- Deaths: 40 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: +8.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
95

96. San Diego County
27,907
524
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,887 (958) -- Deaths: 436 (14) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
96

97. Riverside County
37,897
703
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Riverside County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,481 (733) -- Deaths: 553 (3) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
97

98. Imperial County
10,208
284
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,119 (142) -- Deaths: 141 (5) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
98

99. Multnomah County (Portland)
4,021
76
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,038 (72) -- Deaths: 72 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +5.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
99

100. Utah County
7,651
36
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,560 (69) -- Deaths: 29 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
100

101. Summit County, Utah
696
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-07-15
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 596 (5) -- Deaths: 1 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
101

102. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
554
23
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-07-15
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 449 (15) -- Deaths: 21 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
102

103. St. Francois County, Missouri
163
2
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Francois County, Missouri projection as of 2020-07-15
0
10
20
30
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 173 (6) -- Deaths: 2 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: +10.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
103

104. Dallas, Texas
55,238
636
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 35,914 (1,000) -- Deaths: 477 (20) -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
104

105. Collin Texas
6,827
83
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,685 (152) -- Deaths: 58 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.2% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
105

106. Harris County (Houston)
69,876
593
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County (Houston) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 49,027 (1,658) -- Deaths: 473 (7) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +8.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
106

107. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
8,217
88
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,448 (181) -- Deaths: 78 (2) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
107

108. McLean County, Illinois
394
17
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-15
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 334 (8) -- Deaths: 15 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
108

109. Cook County, Illinois
102,141
4,970
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 96,186 (302) -- Deaths: 4,741 (12) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
109

110. Suffolk County (Boston)
20,884
1,046
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,386 (44) -- Deaths: 1,022 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
110

111. Polk County, Iowa
9,491
199
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,663 (52) -- Deaths: 185 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -2.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
111

112. Johnson County, Iowa
2,209
9
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-07-15
0
25
50
75
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,493 (6) -- Deaths: 9 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: -5.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
112

113. Erie County, New York
8,347
657
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,833 (67) -- Deaths: 646 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.2% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
113

114. Oakland County, Michigan
13,522
1,131
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,814 (62) -- Deaths: 1,109 (0) -- Case Mortality: 8.7% -- Daily Change: +0.2% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
114

115. St. Louis (City)
3,626
164
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,044 (74) -- Deaths: 161 (2) -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
115

116. St. Louis (County)
10,085
665
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,381 (246) -- Deaths: 620 (1) -- Case Mortality: 7.4% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
116

117. Baltimore (City)
9,742
410
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,689 (123) -- Deaths: 367 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: +7.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
117

118. Durham County
5,862
78
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
25
50
75
100
125
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,655 (51) -- Deaths: 71 (1) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +3.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
118

119. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
12,965
461
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,509 (150) -- Deaths: 400 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.2% -- Daily Change: -2.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
119

120. Wayne County (Detroit)
25,565
2,821
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,270 (194) -- Deaths: 2,762 (1) -- Case Mortality: 11.4% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
120

121. Miami-Dade
109,509
1,418
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 69,803 (2,090) -- Deaths: 1,175 (32) -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
121

122. Maricopa County
118,932
1,862
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,233 (3,017) -- Deaths: 1,198 (58) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -4.0% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
122

123. Denver County
8,956
419
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 8,011 (59) -- Deaths: 395 (1) -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
123

124. Arapahoe County
6,231
358
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,734 (52) -- Deaths: 352 (3) -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
124

125. Montrose County
234
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-07-15
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 223 (5) -- Deaths: 12 (0) -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +11.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
125

126. International
126

127. Italy
246,108
35,275
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 243,344 (114) -- Deaths: 34,984 (17) -- Case Mortality: 14.4% -- Daily Change: -3.9% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
127

128. Spain
261,534
28,752
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 256,619 (666) -- Deaths: 28,752 (0) -- Case Mortality: 11.2% -- Daily Change: +10.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
128

129. Portugal
52,667
1,793
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 47,051 (233) -- Deaths: 1,668 (6) -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
129

130. France
218,044
30,308
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 209,640 (0) -- Deaths: 30,032 (0) -- Case Mortality: 14.3% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
130

131. Germany
206,302
9,214
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 200,456 (276) -- Deaths: 9,078 (4) -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: -5.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
131

132. Switzerland
34,282
1,976
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,016 (70) -- Deaths: 1,968 (0) -- Case Mortality: 6.0% -- Daily Change: -3.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
132

133. Austria
20,287
719
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-07-15
0
250
500
750
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,021 (73) -- Deaths: 709 (1) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
133

134. Sweden
88,901
5,884
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Sweden projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 76,001 (175) -- Deaths: 5,545 (9) -- Case Mortality: 7.3% -- Daily Change: -7.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
134

135. Netherlands
52,253
6,201
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 51,362 (54) -- Deaths: 6,156 (0) -- Case Mortality: 12.0% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
135

136. United Kingdom
298,965
46,736
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 292,931 (1,240) -- Deaths: 45,053 (138) -- Case Mortality: 15.4% -- Daily Change: +7.8% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
136

137. Iceland
1,959
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,905 (5) -- Deaths: 10 (0) -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
137

138. Canada
114,622
9,154
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 110,350 (366) -- Deaths: 8,845 (9) -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: +5.7% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
138

139. Australia
12,835
113
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,487 (236) -- Deaths: 111 (3) -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
139

140. New Zealand
1,566
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,547 (2) -- Deaths: 22 (0) -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -4.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
140

141. China
85,452
4,642
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
0
100
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 85,226 (109) -- Deaths: 4,642 (1) -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +14.8% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
141

142. South Korea
14,341
297
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,551 (39) -- Deaths: 289 (0) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
142

143. Singapore
49,313
26
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-07-15
0
300
600
900
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 46,630 (347) -- Deaths: 27 (1) -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: +10.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
143

144. Japan
25,648
999
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
600
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,437 (312) -- Deaths: 984 (0) -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
144

145. South Africa
442,028
7,967
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 298,292 (10,496) -- Deaths: 4,346 (174) -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
145

146. Israel
64,404
424
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,360 (1,728) -- Deaths: 371 (6) -- Case Mortality: 0.9% -- Daily Change: +5.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
146

147. Turkey
233,552
5,738
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Turkey projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 214,993 (992) -- Deaths: 5,402 (20) -- Case Mortality: 2.5% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
147

148. Iran
304,874
16,721
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 262,173 (2,521) -- Deaths: 13,211 (179) -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
148

149. Egypt
109,045
6,164
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Egypt projection as of 2020-07-15
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 83,930 (929) -- Deaths: 4,008 (73) -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: -2.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
149

150. Saudi Arabia
311,341
3,676
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Saudi Arabia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 237,803 (2,692) -- Deaths: 2,283 (40) -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: -3.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
150

151. Bahrain
41,763
167
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Bahrain projection as of 2020-07-15
0
200
400
600
800
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,078 (602) -- Deaths: 111 (2) -- Case Mortality: 0.3% -- Daily Change: +0.9% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
151

152. Brazil
2,678,370
98,092
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-07-15
0
20,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,926,824 (41,857) -- Deaths: 74,133 (1,300) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
152

153. Chile
377,562
10,172
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Chile projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 319,493 (1,836) -- Deaths: 7,069 (45) -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
153

154. Colombia
227,711
11,829
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colombia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 154,277 (3,832) -- Deaths: 5,787 (153) -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
154

155. Peru
391,780
16,662
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Peru projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 333,867 (3,744) -- Deaths: 12,229 (175) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
155

156. Mexico
424,684
51,375
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-07-15
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 311,486 (7,051) -- Deaths: 36,327 (836) -- Case Mortality: 11.7% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
156

157. Russia
850,101
15,313
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 738,787 (6,240) -- Deaths: 11,597 (175) -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
157

158. India
1,412,104
37,017
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-07-15
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 936,181 (29,429) -- Deaths: 24,309 (582) -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +2.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
158

159. Pakistan
318,584
7,228
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-07-15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 255,769 (2,165) -- Deaths: 5,386 (66) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: -6.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
159

160. Worldwide cases
MMR
VNM
SYR
TWN
TZA
BFA
UGA
NER
MOZ
YEM
LKA
THA
MDG
ETH
COD
MYS
VEN
SDN
AUS
KEN
CIV
KOR
UZB
CMR
MAR
NPL
DZA
JPN
GHA
ROU
NGA
AFG
POL
NLD
UKR
PHL
KAZ
IDN
IRQ
EGY
CHN
ARG
CAN
COL
BGD
DEU
FRA
TUR
SAU
ITA
PAK
ESP
IRN
GBR
ZAF
MEX
CHL
PER
RUS
IND
BRA
USAUSA
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totalcasesoverpast7days
Total to date
Worldwide cases
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
160

161. Worldwide cases
VNM
MMR
TZA
TWN
SYR
UGA
THA
MOZ
CHN
YEM
BFA
NER
ETH
COD
LKA
JPN
NGA
MDG
KEN
KOR
IDN
MYS
VEN
SDN
MAR
AUS
UZB
PHL
DZA
NPL
CIV
IND
CMR
POL
EGY
GHA
BGD
AFG
UKR
PAK
ROU
DEU
ARG
IRQ
TUR
MEX
NLD
CAN
COL
FRA
IRN
KAZ
ITA
GBR
RUS
ZAF
ESP
SAU
BRA
USA
PER
CHL
USA
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totalcasespermillion
Total to date
Worldwide cases per million
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
161

162. Worldwide cases
TZA
VNM
TWN
CHN
NER
MMR
THA
BFA
MYS
UGA
SYR
KOR
YEM
COD
MOZ
SDN
JPN
ETH
ITA
LKA
NGA
DEU
NLD
NPL
MAR
AFG
IDN
POL
FRA
KEN
CAN
AUS
EGY
GBR
VEN
CIV
MDG
TUR
DZA
PHL
ESP
PAK
UKR
UZB
CMR
BGD
GHA
IND
ROU
IRN
RUS
MEX
IRQ
ARG
COL
SAU
KAZ
PER
CHL
BRA
USA
ZAF
USA
0
100
200
0 20 40 60
Country
Newcasesperdaypermillion
Daily average over past 7 days
Worldwide new cases per day
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
162

163. Worldwide deaths
UGA
VNM
MMR
TWN
MOZ
LKA
SYR
TZA
NPL
MDG
BFA
THA
UZB
NER
CIV
VEN
AUS
MYS
ETH
GHA
COD
KEN
MAR
KOR
CMR
KAZ
YEM
SDN
NGA
JPN
DZA
AFG
UKR
POL
PHL
ROU
ARG
SAU
BGD
IRQ
IDN
EGY
ZAF
CHN
PAK
TUR
COL
NLD
CHL
CAN
DEU
RUS
PER
IRN
IND
ESP
FRA
ITA
MEX
GBR
BRA
USAUSA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
0 20 40 60
Country
Totaldeathsoverpast7days
Total to date
Worldwide deaths
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
163

164. Worldwide deaths
UGA
VNM
MMR
TWN
MOZ
TZA
LKA
THA
SYR
NPL
ETH
MDG
UZB
COD
BFA
CHN
VEN
CIV
NER
MYS
NGA
KEN
AUS
GHA
KOR
MAR
JPN
IDN
BGD
PHL
YEM
CMR
IND
KAZ
SDN
DZA
PAK
UKR
AFG
POL
ARG
EGY
TUR
SAU
RUS
ROU
ZAF
IRQ
DEU
COL
IRN
CAN
MEX
NLD
BRA
PER
CHL
USA
FRA
ITA
ESP
GBR
USA
0
200
400
600
800
0 20 40 60
Country
Totaldeathspermillion
Total to date
Worldwide deaths per million
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
164

165. Worldwide deaths
BFA
LKA
MMR
NER
THA
TWN
TZA
UGA
VNM
CHN
MYS
MOZ
JPN
KOR
NPL
COD
AUS
MDG
SYR
NLD
GHA
ETH
ESP
MAR
CIV
NGA
DEU
KEN
VEN
UZB
SDN
POL
FRA
IDN
ITA
DZA
TUR
BGD
CMR
CAN
PHL
PAK
UKR
YEM
IND
AFG
EGY
KAZ
ROU
RUS
ARG
SAU
GBR
USA
ZAF
IRN
IRQ
COL
CHL
BRA
MEX
PER
USA
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
0 20 40 60
Country
Deathsperdaypermillion
Daily average over past 7 days
Worldwide deaths per day
ZAF: South Africa, SAU: Saudi Arabia, PER: Peru, COL: Columbia
165

166. Case Mortality vs. Testing
LUX
BHR
MLT
DNK
ISL
LTU
RUS
QAT
ISR
PRT
USA
BLR
AUS
MDV
GBR
IRL
KWT
ITA
BEL
KAZ
LVA
NZL
CAN
EST
ESP
SGP
CHE
AUT
DEU
SRBCHL
SAU
NOR
SWE
CZE
SVN
FIN
POL
TUR
ROU
SVK
NLD
PAN
GRC
ZAF
HUN
SLV
KOR
MYS
BGR
MAR
IRN
HRVURY
COL
UKR
CUB
RWA
PRYGHA
ARG
CRI
PERBOL
THA
INDPHL
ECU
PAK
BRA
FJI
TUN
BGD
SEN
MEX
NPL
JPN
UGA
TGOKEN
TWN
VNM
ZWE
IDN
ETHMMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30 40
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-07-15
166