The first PIM’s Brown Bag seminar in 2014 took place on February 27 at IFPRI and was dedicated to the topic of Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (with a presentation of the recently issued World Bank report on the topic). The session showed great interest among our colleagues working in the area of agricultural and food policies. Presenters included Louise Fox, co-author of the resent World Bank report on the topic, former World Bank Lead Economist and now Visiting Professor at UC Berkeley; Karen Brooks, the report’s contributor and PIM Director; and Frank Byamugisha, author of the book on land rights in Africa “Securing Africa's Land for Shared Prosperity: A Program to Scale Up Reforms and Investments”. More here: http://bit.ly/1g92XTa

1. Youth
Employment in
Sub-Saharan
Africa
The World Bank
March 2014
www.worldbank.org/
africa/youthemploymentreport
Presented at PIM Seminar on Youth
Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa on
February 27, 2014, at IFPRI, Washington, DC

2. Main Findings
Disenchanted urban youth who want to
work in the wage sector are just the tip of
the iceberg
The youth employment problem is about
pathways to adulthood and productive
work in agriculture, household
enterprises, as well as the modern wage
sector—with priority actions on the
human capital as well as the business
environment side

3. The Challenge and Opportunity: Africa in a
Young Continent
Sub-Saharan Africa
3
South Asia
-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
East Asia and Pacific
-160 -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 120 160
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035

4. Over the past two decades, agriculture’s share in GDP contracted in
Africa, but manufacturing did not replace it
Africa’s Youth Employment Challenge
Starts with the Structure of Past Growth
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
SSA South Asia East Asia
Agriculture Industry (exc. Manufacturing)
Manufacturing Services, etc.
Low income countries
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
SSA South Asia East Asia
Agriculture Industry (exc. Manufacturing)
Manufacturing Services, etc.
Low-Middle income countries

5. Growth has not been “Jobless”
4.0
2.1
12.9
11.2
3.2
0 5 10 15
Total
Farm
Household
Enteprises
Wage Private
Wage Public
Annual Growth Rate
3.2
1.9
1.8
7.6
-0.5
-5 0 5 10
Total
Farm
Household
Enteprises
Wage Private
Wage Public
Annual Growth Rate
Tanzania
2000/1 – 2005/6
Ghana,
1991/2 – 2005/6
2.9
2.0
8.6
7.3
-0.6
-5 0 5 10
Total
Farm
Household
Enteprises
Wage Private
Wage Public
Annual Growth Rate
Uganda,
1992/3 – 2005/6
Growth in Primary Employment, by type of job (%)
Note: Tanzania is mainland only

6. Even so, in 2010 most Africans worked in
agriculture and household enterprises
0
20
40
60
80
100
Low Income
(183 m)
Lower-Middle
Income
(40 m)
Resource Rich
(150 m)
Upper-Middle
Income
(21 m)
Total
(395 M)
LaborForceDistribution15-64
Percent
Agriculture HE Wage Industry Wage Services Unemployed

7. What will the structure of employment
look like in 2020?
0
20
40
60
80
100
Low Income
(248 m)
Lower-Middle
Income
(52 m)
Resource Rich
(200 m)
Upper-Middle
Income
(23 m)
Total
(523 M)
LaborForceDistribution15-64
Percent
Agriculture HE Wage Industry Wage Services Unemployed

8. Where will the new jobs come from?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Agriculture Household
Enterprises
Wage
Industry
Wage
Services
Laborforce(millions)
2010 New Jobs in 2020
Projected net new jobs in 2020
compared to 2010
37%
38%
21%
4%
Agriculture Household enterprise
Wage services Wage industry
Gross job flows between 2010
and 2020 (percent of new
entrant individuals)

9. In this economic environment, the transition from
school to work in Sub-Saharan Africa is slow
Rural Urban
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Proportion
Age
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Proportion
Age
Not at School, Not Working, Looking for Work
At School
Both Working and at School
Working

10. Young women face additional challenges—
family formation starts earlier
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Ever had sexual intercourse
Ever married
Ever had a child
Female
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Ever had sexual intercourse
Ever married
Ever had a child
Male

11. The employment agenda starts with
education as it shapes opportunities…
Education Profile of Workers ages 25-34 in each Sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
Agriculture Non-farm
household
enterprise
Wage
without
contract
Wage with
contract
All
No Education Primary incomp. Primary comp. Secondary +

12. Priority Actions to Speed Youth’s
Transition
A cross-cutting agenda on education
quality

13. -100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent
Competent and above (5,6,7,8)
Beginning numeracy (Level 4)
Pre, Emergent and Basic numeracy (Levels 1,2,3)
Percent of SACMEQ 6th grade Math test-
takers who score at each performance level
Africa is becoming educated….. but too many primary school
leavers do not have even basic skills
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ghana
Grade 3
Kenya
End
Grade 3
Liberia
End
Grade 2
Mali
End
Grade 2
Senegal
End
Grade 3
The
Gambia
End
Grade 2
Uganda
End
Grade 2
Percent
Percentage of students who
cannot read a single word of a
simple paragraph, 2010

14. Severe Shortfalls in the Delivery of
Education Services
Service Delivery Indicators
Kenya Senegal Tanzania Uganda
(Public schools only)
Classroom teacher absence rate 47% 29% 53% 57%
Share of teachers with minimum
knowledge:
English/French 10% 29% 9% 4%
Mathematics 75% 75% 73% 36%
Classroom teaching time 2h 19m 3h 15m 2h 04m 2h 58m
(scheduled teaching time) (5h 40m) (4h 36m) (5h 12m) (7h 20m)

15. Priority Actions to build a strong
human capital foundation
• Address the lack of learning in basic education
by reforming accountability frameworks,
ensuring teachers are prepared and supported,
and leveraging private providers
• Promote ECD and nutrition to build a stronger
foundation for skills development
• Build socioemotional and behavioral skills
(consider reforms within the school system)

16. Priority actions now to speed youth’s
transition
For agriculture
For household enterprises
For the modern wage sector
Cross-cutting

17. New opportunities exist in
agriculture, but youth need land and
support to make it productive
Land ownership by age group
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percent
Age
Malawi Tanzania Uganda
Opportunities and constraints
• Growing demand for food
produced on Africa’s farms –
domestically and exports
• Youth can be early adopters of
new technology if it is
available
• … but serious constraints in
access to land and capital,
technology and skills

18. Priorities for higher youth productivity
in agriculture
Do now, for now
• Enable rental markets for land
• Support high-quality, demand-
driven extension services
(covering information as well
as skills)
• Promote rural village savings
and loan associations and self-
help groups
• Link agricultural credit to
extension services
Do now, for later
• Establish effective land
registration and transaction
systems
• Scale up intergenerational
land transfer programs
• Mainstream youth into
interventions (producer
organizations, livestock
development, irrigation, and
others)
• Build skills through rapid
improvements in education
systems in rural areas

19. Household Enterprises are not SMEs – they need their own
approach, and youth need support to seize opportunities
Most enterprises are family
operations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Self
Employed
Self
Employed
with Family
Helpers
With 1-4
Employees
5 +
Employees
Percent
Youth struggle to start a business
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-65
66+
Percent
Distribution of HE owners
Share of age group being in HE owners

20. Priorities for productivity in household
enterprises
Do now, for now
• Develop a national strategy that
reflects the voice of youth and
household enterprise owners
• Ensure access to workspace and
infrastructure for household
enterprises through improved
urban policy
• Leverage NGOs to deliver
programs for youth to address
multiple constraints (building a
range of skills together, building
skills along with providing access
to finance)
Do now, for later
• Build foundational skills
through rapid
improvements in education
systems
• Address infrastructure
needs of household
enterprises in urban
development planning

21. Financial inclusion for family farms
and enterprises, as well as households
African youth save, but not in
banks (Youth 15-24 who save)
• Households, and farm or
business finances comingled
• Households need place to save
and to get credit
• Youth need savings to start a
business or buy inputs for the
farm, and a place to safeguard
profits
• Mobile money shows promise
but need better regulations
• Informal savings groups are
filling the gap, especially in
rural areas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Low income Lower-
middle
income
Upper-
middle
income
Low income Lower-
middle
income
Upper-
middle
income
SSA Rest of the World
Percent
Formal Informal/Club Other

22. A manufacturing strategy won’t solve today’s youth
employment, but it will help the next generation
Manufacturing employment has
grown slowly
“Game changer” scenario will
take time to have an effect
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ethiopia1990
2007
Kenya1990
2007
Ghana1980
2003
Cameroon1990
2007
Malawi1990
2007
Senegal1990
2000
Tanzania1990
2007
ManufacturingEmployment
(‘000ofworkers)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Original Alternative Original Alternative
Low Income 248 m) Lower-middle income (52 m)
Percent
Agriculture Household enterprises
Wage industry Wage services
Unemployed

23. Priorities for increasing modern wage
sector jobs
Do now, for now
• Reduce the cost of
infrastructure services by
addressing quality and
efficiency
• Address logistics bottlenecks
• Reduce corruption and the
cost of business start-up
• Reform technical vocational
education and training and
pursue public-private
partnerships for delivering
demand-driven training
Do now, for later
• Increase the quantity of
infrastructure services
• Expand regional markets
for products
• Build foundational skills
through rapid
improvements in education
systems
• Improve access to credit
through financial sector
reform

24. Cross-cutting priorities
Do now, for now
• Use safety net programs as
a platform to deliver
interventions to
disadvantaged youth
• Increase awareness of
opportunities and pathways
to self-employment,
especially for young women
• Consider second-chance
education for basic skills
Do now, for later
• Reduce fertility rates to
lower the size of future
youth cohorts
• Build better employment
data and a stronger
evidence base to identify
country constraints,
priorities, and opportunities

25. YE is about building skills through improving the
quality of education, as well as behavioral and
business skills
YE is about agriculture – where strategies exist but
have not been implemented, and could benefit from
a youth lens
YE is about household non-farm enterprises – where
few strategies exist
YE is about creating more labor intensive
enterprises as fast as possible to absorb the supply
of new entrants with education who want wage jobs
YE is about female empowerment and focus on the
poor
Governments need to own the “whole” problem
A wide ranging
agenda …
with no silver
bullets

26. Thank you
www.worldbank.org/
africa/youthemploymentreport