The document discusses a workshop aimed at mobilizing youth within the CGIAR program, focusing on youth employment challenges particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. It highlights the structural challenges and demographic changes affecting labor markets, with agriculture remaining a significant source of employment despite ongoing transformations. The document emphasizes the importance of embedding youth perspectives in development strategies and calls for targeted actions to enhance agricultural productivity and access to opportunities for young people.

1. Workshop on
Mobilizing Youth
within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs
CGIAR Consortium Office
Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015
Joint presentation by
Bruno Losch (CIRAD)
and
Karen Brooks (Policies, Institutions, and Markets)

2. Understanding the context for
youth employment
1 -The structural challenges
Workshop on Mobilizing Youth
within Phase 2 CGIAR CRPs
Session 1
CGIAR Consortium Office
Montpellier, September 8-9, 2015
Bruno Losch

3. CAUTION!
 Youth are not located on an island!
 They are fully embedded in the overall economy
and society
 Options for supporting youth are framed by the
context
 They must be included in development strategies

4. REMINDERS ABOUT
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES

5. The new patterns of population growth
Source: WPP 2012
Population increase among world regions
and countries: past and future

6. The new demographic structure
-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
-100-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
-160 -120 -80 -40 0 40 80 120 160
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia and Pacific
Source: Filmer & Fox. 2014. Youth Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington DC: World Bank.

7. The changing weight of rural people
 Until 2050, rural population will decrease globally (-150M)
but rural SSA will continue to grow by 350 million and
rural South Asia will increase till the mid-2040
 In these two regions rising rural population is a challenge:
 For the absorption of
a growing labor force
 For its consequences
on demographic densities
and farm structures and NR
Rural Population Increase
(2010-50)
Source: WUP 2014

8. The decreasing role of agriculture
 The role of rural areas and agriculture is fully
embedded within the process of structural change
 Growing productivity in agriculture => release of labor
force for other sectors => exit to the city
 Growing agricultural incomes => rural demand => rural
diversification
 Main world regions followed the historical pathway
at different paces
 Initiated with the European industrial revolution
 Followed by European offshoots + Japan (until WWII) and
then spread Latin America, South Korea, East Europe
 The situation is more diverse in Asia and Africa with major
differences between countries: many places are lagging

9. The transformation pathway:
Similar trends, different pace (1965-2005)
Source: RuralStruc program

10. Agriculture shares decrease
with growing incomes

11. The major push of the labor force
is in SSA, South and SE Asia
Growth of the labor force (2010-2050) Yearly cohorts of new workers in SSA
Africa will count for 60% of the world’s labor force increase
•12 out of the 19m people entering the labor market/year in SSA live in rural areas
•Between now and 2030, SSA’s economies will have to incorporate 370m youth, 220m in
rural areas and 150m in cities
Sources: WPP 2012; RuralStruc

12. The specific situation of Africa
 African economic transition is lagging
 Dramatic changes since the 1960s but…
 Urbanization occurred without industrialization
 Agriculture remains the biggest single source of employment
(50 to 60%) with 30-35% in other informal activities and 5-
15% in the formal sector
 The challenges of structural transformation are faced
within a specific “moment”
 Globalization: opportunities but competition
 Growing natural constraints: resources and climate change
 The African equation:
“How to deal with a growing labor force with a poorly
diversified economic structure in today’s context?”

13. Different contexts result in different
opportunities and constraints for youth
 The role of agriculture depends on off-farm opportunities
and factors availability
 The number of farms is impacted by demographic growth
+ exit options + available agricultural land (resulting
from nature and infrastructure) + production systems
(farm structure)
 In Asia: the trend is towards labor shortage and growing
farm sizes due to declining rural population (growth rate
and urbanization)
 In Africa: growing rural population results in more farms if
land availability exists or decreasing sizes in case of land
pressure
 These features embrace the youth specifics related to
factor and voice access and share of returns

14. Youth Employment in
Agriculture:
Prospects and Role for CGIAR
Karen Brooks, Director of the CGIAR
Research Program on Policies,
Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

15. “Youth and agriculture” issues: Different regions,
different views
• East Asia: aging rural work force, few young women want to
marry farmers—who will farm in the next generation?
• Central Asia: young men migrate to Russia (until recently),
women remain behind on farms
• Africa south of the Sahara: (Ministry of Finance) urban areas have
too many underemployed young people, better to keep them on
farms
• Africa south of the Sahara: (Ministry of Agriculture) young people
don’t want to farm, abandoning rural areas
• South Asia: Too few jobs all around, skills gaps
Framing of the issue affects design of remedies

16. When is exit the problem? And when is staying the
problem?
Exit
– Opportunity if attracted out
• Good jobs off farms
• Land and labor markets adjust
quickly with minimal costs
– Problem if pushed out
• Few off-farm jobs; skills issues
• Available jobs have low
productivity; illegal sector
• Join urban poor
• Urban poverty preferred due to
amenities
Stay
– Opportunity if chosen
• New land available
• Technical change, dynamism
• Demand for food strong
• Off-farm jobs and mixed
livelihoods
– Problem if stuck
• Land markets locked up
• Technical stagnation;
backward technology
• Young people feel trapped

17. Specific to Africa south of the Sahara: Despite exit, agriculture is
still the dominant employer and will remain so

18. Young Africans will work in agriculture
• Fortunately, this is a time of opportunity in
the sector, especially in Africa.
– Growing local and regional
demand
– Available land and water
– Global prices likely to go back up
– Potential to raise productivity
• Key question is whether productivity rises
enough to sustain competitiveness

19. Technical backwardness shuts out young people—
quashes opportunities and aspirations

20. Biggest systemic constraint to youth employment in Africa
south of the Sahara is under-investment in agricultural research
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Millions$(2005,PPP)
Ag Spending, Research Ag Spending, Total
Source: ASTI (Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators) database 2015 and SPEED
(Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development) database 2015.
Total spending on agriculture and agriculture research in Africa south of the Sahara,
2000-2009

21. What kinds of jobs? Different pathways
Pathways have differential needs for land, capital
(finance), and information (skills)

22. 70% of young Africans in agriculture have
less than complete primary schooling

23. Agendas for action and research
Action Agenda
• Land
• Skills
• Finance
• Technology
• Embed youth lens in virtually
everything; e.g., Science Agenda
for African Agriculture
• Support the informal sector
Research Agenda
• Rigorous impact assessments of
pilots
• Surveys to understand occupational
choice
• Age-disaggregated data on program
beneficiaries for all programs
• Age and adoption of technology
• Age and control of land
• Innovative ways to provide
information and advice to low-skilled
• Bundling of financial and other
services to increase access

24. Assessment of Experience of World Bank and IFC with
Youth Employment Projects
IEG 2012
Success may simply be undocumented…in much of sub-Saharan
Africa. Robust analytic work should underpin youth employment interventions because of the
greater institutional risks they face.
• Short term effects
• Limited positive results
• Little attention to cost effectiveness
• Questionable results from short-term skills building
• Little known about labor market outcomes, livelihoods
• Basic dearth of evidence

25. Implications for CGIAR
• Measure impact of any pilot programs
– Design into plan from the beginning
• Increase collection and analysis of age-disaggregated data
• Provide training and mentoring opportunities for young scientists
from developing countries
• Work with NARS, NGOs, CBOs, media to raise visibility of young
people
• Integrative CRPs—highlight systemic constraints
• Agri-food System CRPs
– Identify features of technology that appeal to young people (if any)
– Pilot interventions that make technology accessible to young
people

26. THANK YOU!
Photo credit: Neil Palmer (CIAT), Flickr