PIM Webinar recorded on November 29, 2021. Presenters: Ben Belton - Global Lead, Social and Economic Inclusion, WorldFish Diego Naziri – value chain and postharvest specialist, International Potato Center (CIP); Leader of “Nutritious Food and Value Added through Post-harvest Innovation” research flagship in the CGIAR Research Program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB) Gashaw Tadesse Abate - Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Abut Hayat Md. Saiful Islam – Professor at Department of Agricultural Economics at Bangladesh Agricultural University in Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Marcel Gatto – Agricultural Economist at the International Potato Center (CIP). Humnath Bhandari - Senior Agricultural Economist and Country Representative, IRRI Bangladesh. G.M. Monirul Alam - Professor, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh. Full recording of the webinar available at https://bit.ly/3DN18in

2. Pivoting in response to Covid-19 disruptions
in the midstream of potato and fish value chains in Kenya
With funding from CGIAR COVID-19
HUB
Ben Belton (WorldFish & MSU) and Diego Naziri (CIP), Sarah Alobo Loison
(WorldFish), Kelvin Shikuku (WorldFish), & Thomas Reardon (MSU)

3. Materials & Methods
Potato Fish
Type of actor N (%) N (%)
Itinerant brokers 175 34 140 33
Wholesalers 130 25 138 33
Small processors 143 28 141 34
Medium/large processors 70 14 0 0
Total 518 100 419 100
• Designed study to understand pivoting behavior
midstream VC actors in response to C19 pandemic
• 4 VC segments 2 trade + 2 processing
 Supply side: 3 production zones.
 Demand side: two primary cities.
• Three recall periods in July (potato high season,
fish supply not highly seasonal)
 2019 (Pre pandemic)
 2020 (Post 1st lockdown)
 2021 (One year later)

4. Massive reduction in sales, slow recovery
• Most businesses in most segments
continued to operate in all years, but…
• Massive drop in average weekly sales
in 2020; more severe for potato (80%
reduction) than fish (60%)
• Partial recovery in potato sales in
2021, fish sales remained at 2020
levels
• Higher transport prices and difficulties
accessing transport reported widely,
especially in 2020. Sales volume index, by year and actor type.
2019 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
2019 2020 2021
SALES
INDEX
2019
=
100
FISH Broker FISHWholesaler
FISH Small processor POT Broker
POT Wholesaler POT Small processor
POT Med/large processor Poly. (FISH Avg)
Poly. (POT Avg)

5. Divergent prices reflect supply side differences
• Increase in fish prices – constrained
supply (curfew prevented fishing +
disrupted trade from Uganda &
China)
• Drop in potato prices – Peak season +
low demand/market access
• Increase in local sales in 2020,
especially for wholesalers (itinerant
traders & small processors already
selling locally)
• Tendency to sell more direct to
consumers or smaller buyers
Sales price index, by year and actor type.
2019 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2019 2020 2021
PRICE
INDEX
2019
=
100
FISH broker FISH wholesaler
FISH small processor POT broker
POT wholesaler POT small processor
POT med/large processor

6. Increasing market concentration, especially in 2020
• Fish much more concentrated
(higher Gini of sales) than potato
in all VC segments
• May reflect actor definitions &
roles; more heterogeneity per
actor type in fish VC
• Tendency towards more
concentration in most segments,
especially for potato
• Concentration trend more acute
in 2021 than 2020
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
2019 2020 2021
GINI
COEFFICIENT
OF
SALES
FISH itinerant trader FISH wholesaler
FISH small processor POT itinerant trader
POT wholesaler POT small processor
POT med/large processor Linear (FISH avg )
Linear (POT Avg)
Gini coefficient of sales, by VC and actor, 2019-2021

7. No, 75% [CELLRANGE]
Started*
[CELLRANGE]
Increased*
[CELLRANGE]
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 25%
* 9% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 13%
[CELLRANGE]
Started*
[CELLRANGE]
Increased*
[CELLRANGE]
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 87%
* 8% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 95%
[CELLRANG
E], Started*
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 5%
* 20% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 70%
[CELLRANG
E],…
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 30%
* 8% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
SEARCH FOR CUSTOMERS ONLINE OR THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA
FISH
POTATO
FISH
BUSINESS TRANSACTIONS WITH CUSTOMERS OVER THE PHONE
Change in phone, internet and social media use
POTATO

8. No, 51%
[CELLRANGE]
Started*
[CELLRANGE]
Increased*
[CELLRAN
GE]
Not
COVID-…
Yes, 49%
* 15% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
STORAGE FOR MORE THAN 3 DAYS
FISH
POTATO
FISH
MADE OR RECEIVED PAYMENTS ELECTRONICALLY
Change in e-payment and storage
POTATO
No, 62%
[CELLRANGE],
Started*
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 38%
* 65% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 46%
[CELLRAN
GE],…
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 54%
* 57% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 20%
[CELLRANGE]
Started*
[CELLRANGE]
Increased*
[CELLRANGE]
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 80%
* 7% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends

9. INFORMAL AGREEMENT WITH SUPPLIERS
FISH
POTATO
FISH
FORMAL CONTRACT WITH SUPPLIERS
Change in formal and informal agreements
POTATO
No, 96%
[CELLRAN
GE],…
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 4%
* 20% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 88%
[CELLRAN
GE],…
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 12%
* 6% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 87%
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 13%
* 4% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends
No, 60%
[CELLRANGE],
Started*
[CELLRANGE],
Increased*
[CELLRANGE],
Not COVID-19
related
Yes, 40%
* 6% expects to cease/reduce once the pandemic ends

10. Other specific responses to COVID-19 pandemic
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Changed working hours
Transportation over different or longer route
Reduced number of employees
Reduced staff salary
Increased staff salary
Used own savings to support operations
Sold own assets to support operations
Borrowed cash for working capital
Taken commodity as in-kind/trade credit
Lent cash to business partners
Advanced products as in-kind/trade credit
Received aid from government
Received aid from other organization
Have you done any of the following in response to the pandemic? (% yes)
POTATO FISH

11. Conclusions
• Most businesses survived but massive reduction in sales in 2020 (especially potato), partial
recovery in 2021
• Potato prices fell (unsalable surplus); fish prices rose (contracting imports and domestic supply)
• Disruptions to transport and changing prices/demand main reported challenges
• Partial shift to more local sourcing and selling, and sales to smaller actors (use of smaller vehicles)
• Market concentration occurring in 2020/2021, especially for potato
• Rapid growth in ICT use in business transactions
• Informal agreements with business partners on the raise, but formal contracts less so
• Stronger vertical coordination in fish VC; however, short-term responses to COVID-19 likely to
remain (except storage), thus contributing to resilience to future supply/demand shocks in both VCs
• Reduction in staff, salary, working hours and change in transport routes: similar short-term copying
strategies in both VCs
• Mobilization of own savings/assets and increased use of credit (incl. VC financing) to maintain
business operations more common in fish than in potato VC.

12. The performance of Ethiopia’s Coffee value chain
actors during the COVID-19 pandemic
Evidence from cascading phone surveys
Gashaw T. Abate
with Yalew Mekonnen & Mekdim Dereje
November 29, 2021
Enverita
s

13. Background
• Considering the population of 100+ million, Ethiopia has managed to keep COVID-19
infection rates relatively low:
• Slow increase in COVID-19 cases, specially during the first 3-4 months
• November 25: 370,886 tested positive; 347,873 recovered; and 6,714 deaths
• Most cases have been in the capital, Addis Ababa
• Rapid government response after 3 days of the first confirmed case
• Social distancing measures (school closure, banning large gathering, etc.)
• Awareness creation on preventive measures (hand washing, facemasks, etc.)
• Social protection response (i.e., expanding the Urban-PSNP; new food banks)
• The country never went into a full lockdown severely restricting movement
• The first detected COVID-19 case was confirmed on March13, 2020, after the main
coffee harvest and marketing season is completed (during international shipment)

14. Data: phone surveys
IFPRI coffee VC phone survey
• Build on a prior coffee value chain
surveys conducted by IFPRI in 2014 that
represent main coffee producing zones
of the country
• The survey was conducted in June –
July 2021with
• 857 smallholder coffee farmers
• 277 coffee traders/assemblers
• 122 coffee processors
• 45 coffee exporters
Enveritas coffee VC phone survey
• Build on Enveritas database of seven
main coffee producing regions
• Round 1: Nov/Dec 2020 (784 farmers,
40 coop and 30 private mill
managers)
• Round 2: Feb 2021 (737 farmers, 40
coop and 30 private mill managers)
The surveys focus on (self-reported) changes in access to inputs, markets (marking
patterns), and income/food security/profit
Make comparison between 2019 (April 2019-March 2020) vs. 2020 (April 2020 – March 2021)

15. Coffee framers: No much effect on scale of operation,
input use, and access to credit
• Share of coffee to
total value of
production ↑ in 2020
• Volume of coffee
produced ↑ in 2020
• Use of inorganic
inputs are less
common
• Share of farmers
used manure &
compost ↑ in 2020
• Share of farmers
that hired labor ↓
slightly in 2020
• Finding labor was
a bit difficult in
2020
• Access to credit
declined recently, but
not due to C-19
• However, access to
extension declined
during the pandemic

16. Coffee framers: No much observed effect on access to
buyers and amount of coffee sold
• 91% of farmers indicated that they had same / more
number of coffee buyers in their locality in 2020
• Composition of buyers remain the same before and
during the pandemic
Number of coffee buyers in 2020 compared to 2019

17. Coffee framers: income, food security & diet quality
• 30% indicate that their
income in 2020 was lower
than in 2019
• Only 24% indicated that C-19
was a main reason/factor
• Most these households that
experienced income loss
received support
Income in 2020 compared to 2019 Food security (FIES) Diet diversity
PSNP areas, July-2018
Addis Ababa, Aug-2020
• Sizable share of coffee
farmers are food insecure,
but the pandemic didn’t
aggravate the situation
• Coffee farmers consumed ~7
food groups out of 12
• Less number of food groups
than the average hh in Addis
Ababa, but a more
diversified food than
households in PSNP areas

18. Coffee traders: contracts, inputs, access to buyers, & profit
• Share of traders with
agreements, paid employees,
access to credit remain the
same before and during the
pandemic
• Contractual terms and main
sources of credits remain
largely the same
Contract, labor use, & credit Number of buyers in 2020 compared to 2019 Profit in 2020 compared to 2019
• 95% of the traders indicated
that they had same / a
greater number of coffee
buyers in 2020 compared to
2019
• Close to 70% of the traders
indicated that they had same
/ larger profit in 2020
compared to 2019

19. Coffee processors: scale of operation, contracts, labor use
& profit
• Share of coffee to the total
value of business ↑ in 2020
• Share of processors with
buyers' agreement ↑ in 2020
• Share of processors that
received credit ↑ in 2020
• Processor's hire more female
employees and their number
↑ in 2020
• More delay on payment by
about 5 days more, on
average, in 2020
• >70% of processors
indicated that their profit ↑ in
2020 compared to 2019
Scale, contract, & credit Number of paid employees Profit in 2020 compared to 2019

20. Coffee exporters: relatively affected by the pandemic
• 75% of exporters extended contracts
(delayed shipments) due to C-19
• 30% experienced cancellation of
contracts
• No observed effect on scale of
operation and credit access
Contract, scale & credit Profit in 2020 compared to normal year
• >70% of the exporter indicated that they had
same / larger profit both in 2019 & 2020
compared to normal years
Profit in 2019 compared to normal year

21. Summary
• The coffee value chain in Ethiopia appear to have been resilient to the
pandemic (other studies on dairy and vegetable value chains found
similar results)
• Main value chain actors performed relatively well, given disruptions
• Of the small share of value chain actors that experienced income or profit
loss during the pandemic, only a small fraction of them mentioned covid-
19 as a reason/factor
• Need better measurement of income, business profits, etc. in phone
surveys (questions with “much less”, “much more” type of responses may
not adequately capture the full picture)

22. Thank You!

23. Timeline

24. COVID-19 Impacts and Adaptations
in Rice and Fish Value Chains in
Bangladesh
Humnath Bhandari
International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
G M Monirul Alam
Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Bangladesh
CGIAR Research Program on
Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) Webinar on
COVID-19 and agricultural value chains: impacts and adaptations
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Online platform II 29 Nov 2021

25. COVID-19 spread and response in Bangladesh
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
3/8/2020
5/8/2020
7/8/2020
9/8/2020
11/8/2020
1/8/2021
3/8/2021
5/8/2021
7/8/2021
9/8/2021
11/8/2021
Cumulative cases (1000) Date Government responses
8 Mar 2020 Detect first 3 cases
26 Mar 2020 Nationwide General Holiday
5 Apr 2020 GoB announced stimulus packages
1 Jun 2020 Lockdown eased despite pandemic
5 Apr 2021 Imposed 7-days lockdown
9 Apr 2021 Markets and stores reopened
1 Jul 2021 Strict lockdown nationwide
11 Aug 2021 Lockdown lifted
12 Sep 2021 Schools & colleges reopened

26. Methodology
Mixed methods approach
Primary data
• Rice farmers: 500
• Fish farmers: 500
• Other VC actors: FGD, KII
Secondary data
Literature review

27. COVID impacts on major food crops
Nationwide
lockdown
(26 Mar 2020)
Boro rice, potato, wheat, etc ready for harvest
Aus & Aman rice preparing for cultivation
Main food crops
Rice (Aman)
Rice (Aus)
Rice (Boro)
Potato
Wheat
Harvesting
A M J
Crop calendar
J A S O N D
J F M
Sowing
Growing

28. COVID impacts on the rice value chains
RVC stage Impact Actors’ adaptation
Input supply Shop close, Supply chain, Labor, Capital Partly open, Loan, Saving use
Production
Labor, Plant/Harvest time, Access to
seed/input/service, Investment, Yield,
Price, Cost
Family labor, Delay plan/harv,
Mechanize, Less inputs, Own
seed, AgInt, Loan, Local sale
Processing
Mills closed, Labor, Supply chain, Store,
Packaging, Cost/Income, Cost, Capital
Partly open, Few labor, Loan,
Saving, GoB relief
Marketing
Market closed, Transport, Supply chain,
Mkt manip, Price spread, Import/Export,
Lower sale, Cost, Capital, Income
Gov manage transp/supply
chain, Farmer/digital market,
FPO, Loan, Saving, GoB relief
Consumption
Income/Remit decrease, Diet pattern
(more rice), Less supply, Price hike
Reduce consu, Food stock,
Asset sale, Safetynet, Loan

29. COVID impacts on rice prices
Source: DAM (2021)
10
20
30
40
50
60 Jan.19
Mar.19
May.19
Jul.19
Sep.19
Nov.19
Jan.20
Mar.20
May.20
Jul.20
Sep.20
Nov.20
Jan.21
Mar.21
Apr.21
July.21
Aug.21
Nov.21
Normal Lockdown No L'Down L'Down Normal
K'Ganj (Wholesale)
Dhaka (Retail)
Coarse rice price (Tk/kg)

30. Gov policy response to COVID impacts on agri
Mechanization intervention,
2020 Boro rice, Haor Region
Labor mobilized
(no)
95,000
New combine
harvesters
supplied (no)
192
New reapers
supplied (no)
65
GoB agri policy response ($2.5 billion)
• Agri as essential commd/Coordination
• Labor management & mobility
• Mechanization
• Boost crop production (no fallow)
• Relief for farmers (seed, fert, irrig,)
• Farm loan subsidy
• Marketing support (Procure, transport,
farmer/digital market, market monitor)
• Homestead nutrition gardens
• Agro-advisory services (physical/online)

31. RVC actors’ demand to mitigate COVID impacts
• Efficient VC/market systems (input, output, local market)
• Supply of agro inputs and advisory services
• Mechanization (LSP, PPP)
• Digital agriculture
• Subsidized loan
• Improved technology, community seed banks
• Storage system
• Paddy procurement system (MSP, process)
• Financial support & safety nets
• Capacity development (tech, machine, youth, FPO)
• Inter-ministry coordination/Agri as essential commodity

32. Figure : Fish marketing channel
Farmer Bepari/ Paiker
Aratdar Small
paiker/Retailer
Paiker
Consumer
2<%
65%
33%
100%
10%
100%
70%
30%
60%
30%
Fish
Fish for food
Fish for income
Fish for saving
Fish for health
Culture Fish-Impacted
by COVID-19
Capture Fish-Relatively
less affected by COVID-19
Reduced fish price Increased feed price
 ~12% of total pop involved.
 Ranked 3rd in inland open water
capture production and 5th in
world aquaculture production.
 Contributes 3.50% to GDP and
25.7% to the total agri GDP.
Economic Importance of Fish

33. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan.19
Feb.19
Mar.19
Apr.19
May.19
Jun.19
Jul.19
Aug.19
Sept.19
Oct.19
Nov.19
Dec.19
Jan.20
Feb.20
Mar.20
Apr.20
May.20
Jun.20
Jul.20
Aug.20
Sept.20
Oct.20
Nov.20
Dec.20
Jan.21
Feb.21
Mar.21
Apr.21
May.21
Jun.21
July.21
Aug.21
Sept.21
Oct.21
Normal Situation Genreal Lockdown No Lockdown Lockdown No
Lockdown
Price
(BDT)
Wholesale market price of culture fish
Ruhi (Imported) Silver Carp Katla-Small Ruhi (Local) Telapia (Nilotica) Kai
Source: DAM, 2021

34. 80
130
150
110
130
100
60
100
120
85
100
60
80
125
140
115
120
90
SILVER CARP RUI KATLA COMMON CARP GRASS CARP TELAPIA
FISH
PRICE
Before COVID-19 During Now
45
35
30
22
45
33
30
18
52
40
36
25
PACKAGED FEED KHAIL WHEAT DUST KHUD (RICE BREAK)
FEED
PRICE
Before COVID-19 During Now
Source: Field Survey, 2021

35. Impact of COVID-19 on households in the haor
areas of Bangladesh
Lockdow
n
Infected/
Illness
Reduced job
opportunities
Reduced
Income
COVID-19
Disrupted food
supply chain
Increased price
of necessities
Increased food
insecurity/ vulnerability
Coping and
adaptation strategies
Govt./Other
support
Copping
strategies
Haor village-
1% received help
Non-haor villages-
3% received help
Consumption
based
Borrowing Selling
Reduced amount of food per meal
Reduced number of meals per day
 Rely upon less expensive or less
preferred food
Reduced buying from market (veg.,
meat, milk, etc.)
 Purchase food on credit
 Borrow -
relatives/friends/money
lender/ neighbours
 Spend money from deposit
 Sell poultry/livestock/land and
other assets
 Rely on casual labour for food
Increased price
of inputs

36. Online Fish Market
Manager of FPO
Fish Farmer
Sold/Consumer
Government Intervention
 Fish Market App-
 Mobile pickup vans
 Pickup van for FPO
 Provide sticker/pass from UFO for easy
movement
 Government stimulus package
Figure : Diagram of Fish market app

37. Fish farmers adaptation strategies to COVID-19
 Take advance from Aratdar/Traders
 Borrow money, spend savings
 Reducing consumption
 Increased consumption and distribution of fish
 Reduced buying other high value crops
 Reduced frequency of buying
 Supplementing with a non-fishing source of income
 Participated in direct sales of fish to customers
 Use mobile phone to sales fish to direct customer
 Use Internet to sale fish (Facebook, messenger)

38. FVC actors’ demand to overcome the loss from
COVID-19
 Reduce the price of feed and other inputs
 Subsidized loan to all FVC actors (free from money lenders)
 Establishing more government hatchery to provide lower price of fingerlings
 Reduce market rents
 Reduce fish transportation cost
 Provide net to the FPO
 Ensure the allocation of open water bodies among the real fisherman
 Expansion of fish pen culture in the river
 Smooth supply of medicines to protect the fish from diseases
 Facilitates more training facilities on fish production and management

39. Effects of COVID-19 on Potato Value
Chain in Bangladesh
• Abu Hayat Md. Saiful Islam (Bangladesh Agricultural University)
• Marcel Gatto (International Potato Center)
• m.gatto@cgiar.org;
• saiful_bau_econ@yahoo.com
PIM webinar, November 29, 2021

40. Introduction
• COVID-19:
• Increasing demand for table potatoes
• Oversupply of processing potatoes
• Potato 3rd most important food crop
after rice & wheat and staple for 1.3
billion people
• Potato often takes back seat

41. Motivation
• Objective:
“To analyze the effects of COVID-19 on the potato
value chain in Bangladesh”

42. Background
• Lockdowns in Bangladesh
• (March - May 2.5 months, 2020)
• (April 7 days 2021)
• (July 14 days 2021)
• Potato production at 11M tons/annually with
surplus (~30%).
• Potato exports benefitted from higher demand
• Disruptions in value chains (labor, inputs, markets)
• Traders/cold storages accused of storing potatoes

43. Material & Methods
Study region Dinajpur
Rangpur
Bogura
Munshiganj
Jessore
Satkhira
Khulna
• 7 districts purposefully
selected
• Main potato producing
areas

44. Material & Methods
Data
Seed
Enterprises
Farmers Traders
Cold
storage
Processors
Value Chain Actors in Potato Sector
N=700
N=7 N=100 N=50 N=2

45. Materials & Methods
• Standardized questionnaire with focus on
agricultural production + adaptation strategies
• Recall for 2019 & 2020
• Contact details from existing databases
• 5 enumerators trained
• Phone survey (30min)
• Data collected in mid-July 2021 to October, 21.
• Analysis methods: Mostly descriptive statistics
including inferential statistics, OLS and Probit model

46. Results
Concern and optimism about COVID 19
7 7
8
9
7
8
5 5
6
5 5 5
Farmers Traders Cold Storage Processors Seed Business Overall
Level
(0
for
not
at
all
to
10)
Level of Concern Optimism

47. Results
Income and Food Security
• Income Change due to COVID 19??
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
About the same Higher this year Lower this year
%
Income change compare to 2019
Farmers Traders Cold Storage
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
The Income change
is related to Covid-
19? (Yes %)
Inability to work
because business
was closed by
authorities
Movement
restrictions affected
ability to earn
income
Pandemic reduced
consumer demand
for commodity
%
Farmers Traders Cold Storage
0
20
40
60
80
No food Health food Few food items
%
Since the pandemic, have you ever worried about…..
Farmers Traders

48. Results
Price, Labour demand and
production/trade of potato
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Farmers Traders Cold
Storage
Processors Seed
Business
Overall
Selling
Price
(Tk/Kg.)
Average selling price of potato in 2019, 2020 & 2021
2019 2020 2021
0
20
40
60
80
100
About the same Higher this year Lower this year
%
Use of Hired labour compare to 2019
Farmers Traders Cold Storage Seed Business
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Farmers Traders Cold Storage Processors Seed Business
Kg./Ton
Potato trade in 2019 & 2021
2019 2021 Change

49. Results
Profit from Potato, access to credit and Government aid in 2021
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Farmers Traders Cold Storage Processors Seed
Business
Yes/No-%
Creedit and Government aid in 2021
Credit Govt. Aid
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Decrease by
more than 10%
Decrease by less
than or equal
10%
Similar to last
year/2019
Increase by less
or equal to 10%
Increase by
more than 10%
%
Profit from potato business
Farmers Traders Cold Storage

50. Results
Potato production
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1
Avg.
production
(differences)
in
t/ha
Production 2019 Production 2021
Increased 2021 Decreased 2021
225 kg
Probit regression results Negative production 2021 (=1)
Variables Marginal Effects Std err.
Higher seed access -0.180*** 0.049
Higher fertilizer access -0.049 0.063
Higher credit access 0.075 0.054
More agricultural vendors -0.021 0.042
More hired labour used in 2021 -0.117* 0.069
More family labour used in 2021 0.014 0.066
HH Controls
Age (years) 0.003* 0.002
Education (levels) 0.009 0.008
Total land area (decimal) 0.00001 0.00006
Output potato price 2019 (Tk) -0.006 0.004
Output potato price 2020 (Tk) -0.001 0.004
Optimistic (scale 1-10) -0.024** 0.011
Districts
Dinajpur (north; base category) . .
Rangpur (north) 0.118** 0.055
Bogura (north) 0.237** 0.090
Munishganj (middle) 0.276*** 0.053
Jessore (middle) -0.059 0.095
Khulna (Coast) 0.348*** 0.099
Satkhira (Coast) 0.195*** 0.066

51. Results
Adaptation Strategies by the Potato VC actors
0 50 100 150
Doing more household works
Sold the crop at a lower price
Taken loan
Dyversifying crop porfoio
Sold livestocks
Started new poultry business
Take low quality food items
Change the type of works
Mortgaged the land
Used savings
Investing more time on livetock/cow…
N
Farmers adaptation strategies with COVID impact
0 10 20 30 40 50
Giving more time to agricultural works
Taken loan
Changes the type of work
Used savings
Spending more time in the business
Sold livestocks
Sold the crop at lower price
Other family member has satated new…
Land mortgaged
N
Potato Traders adaptation strategies with COVID impact
Other Actors Major Adaptation strategies
Cold Storage (N=50) o Sold the crop at lower price
o Sold the land
Seed business (N=7) o Introduce credit system
o Charging low booking fees for seed selling
o Introduce online seed booking system
o Introduce online payment system
o Giving technical support through mobile phone

52. Conclusions
• COVID-19 major impact on potato VC actors
• All actors are quite concerned as well as optimistic about COVID
• COVID-19 negatively affecting overall income and food security
• However, potato VC activities not affected much, seems more resilient to
COVID-19
• Potentially other aspects of VC actors diversified livelihood is more affected
than potato VC activities!
Potato VC actors adapted short and relatively longer-term adaption strategies
including taking loan, use savings, selling livestock's, changing business types
and crops, etc.

53. Thank you!

54. Q&A
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