In 1965, Gordon Moore of Intel saw the doubling of transistors in an integrated circuit doubling every two years. This exponential increase in technological capacity has allowed for many of our modern conveniences. But what will the impact on the U.S. economy be as technology continues to advance exponentially. Enjoy the slide show from Rob Bencini, Economic Futurist so see some of the potential outcomes.

1. WHAT DOES MOORE’S LAW
MEAN FOR THE REST OF
SOCIETY?
WorldFuture 2014
Rob Bencini, MBA, CEcD
July 13, 2014

2. Economic Futurist
CONNECTING THE DOTS
of trends from all areas
and assessing their impact on the
economy

3. Baseline
• You will hear things in this presentation today
that you have never heard before (and may never
hear again) regarding the economy. Put it in
context for your benefit.
• Some of the economic projections are less than
cheery. Don’t regard that as negative. Better to
be prepared than blindsided. If there is time I will
provide some areas of opportunity that I see.
• URGENT!

4. P

5. Abundance

7. Moore’s Law

8. Technological Advances Through the
Ages
• Tools/Weapons
• Metalworking
• Wheel
• Gunpowder
• Shipbuilding
• Steam Engine
• Radio Waves
• Automobile
• Agriculture
• Harnessing Fire
• Domesticating Animals
• Navigation
• Printing Press
• Electricity
• Flight
• Computer

9. TRENDS
• Rise of the Global Economy
• Technological Advances Disrupting Old Models
• Revolution in Higher Education
• Real Estate Woes
• Private Sector Aversion to Hiring Full-Time Labor
• Rise of the “Proprietor” or “Gig” Economy
• Huge Demographic Changes
• Urban Migration in the U.S.

10. CONNECTING THE DOTS
• Evaluate the connection between three
different areas:
– Higher Education
– Generations (Millennials)
– Auto Industry
• Nothing (including Moore’s Law) can be
viewed in a vacuum. Everything connects.

11. Higher Education Due for Massive
Change

18. Massive Open Online Courses
• Khan Academy
• Udacity (Thrun)
• Coursera (100 partners)
• EdX
• Saylor
• iTunes U
• Others (13 and counting)

19. Key Issues Moving Forward
DEGREE
or
KNOWLEDGE?
• How does a
potential
employer
ASSESS what
she needs?
How about the
student?

20. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
• The U.S. is getting:
– Older
– Browner
– More Urban
• Millennials (aka Gen Y or Echo Boomers) will
dominate the workplace in ten years.

22. Millennials
• Born between 1982 and 2000.
• Civic-minded, more liberal, not as money-
obsessed, networked, techno-savvy.
• Ditching television to watch on other devices.
• Not going to movies.
• Not getting drivers licenses or buying cars.
• Not getting married and having kids.
• Not buying homes.
• Smartphones and banks and civic groups.

23. Boomers vs. Millennials
• 10,000 US citizens per day are turning 65
years old.
• 23% of Millennials are unemployed.
• 42% of Millennials are underemployed.
• 38% of Millennials still live with their parents.

24. POPULATION MOBILITY
• Since the 2010 U.S. Census, North Carolina has
grown by 300,000 people. One half of the
population gain has been in two counties:
Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte).
50 of the state’s 100 counties have lost
population since the census.

25. World Auto Status
• 2005 65M vehicles produced
• 2012 81M vehicles produced
• China (13.6M), India (2.1M) and Brazil (2.1M)
represented more than all the growth.
• US sales now back up to where they were in
1985.

26. World Auto Status
• GM now produces more cars in China than in
the US.
• China is the world’s largest auto manufacturer
and produced 2X the number of cars as the US
last year.

27. World Auto Status
• 5% of Europe’s economy is based on auto
manufacturing.
• Due to sluggish sales, Ford closed two plants
and GM closed one in Europe this year.
• India: Hindustan Motors, maker of “The
Ambassador” auto (since 1957) suspended
operations.

28. Unsold New Cars

29. Unsold New Cars

30. US Auto Status
• 19% of all cars sold in the US are made in
Mexico.
• GM, Ford, VW, Nissan, Honda, Mazda have
built auto plants in Mexico since 2011. Audi
coming online in 2016. VW choosing between
Mexico and a second plant in Chattanooga.
• Mexican auto workers make $16/day.
• Repeating: Millennials aren’t buying cars.

31. Cost of Driving in the US
• In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000
crashes, killing 32,885 and injuring 2,239,000
in the United States.
• In 2010 the cost of medical care and
productivity losses associated with motor
vehicle crash injuries was nearly $900 billion.

32. Google Car

35. Toward a Self-Employed Economy.

36. Real Estate Woes
• Internet sales growing 3x that of storefront
operations (more if gas and cars are left out).
• U.S. has 22 sf of retail space per person. #2 in
the world is Sweden, with 3 sf/person.
• The U.S. simply has an overbuilt retail
presence.
• Industrial. Got any empty space?
• Housing. Multi-generations in one.
Apartments.

37. Recap
• We are entering a new economic era –
one where rapid changes in technological
advances disrupt what we are used to.
• The old rules – the old ways of doing
things -will apply less and less. And we
don’t know what the new rules will be.

38. THE ECONOMY HAS CHANGED
• The “Job” paradigm that began with
the Industrial Revolution is
diminishing.
• There is a rapidly rising alternate
“workplace engagement” in lieu of
“jobs”.

39. CONNECTING THE DOTS
• The disconnect between higher education and
workplace engagement will threaten the very
existence of mediocre private colleges. Tens
of thousands of jobs will disappear and
campuses closed.
• Millennials (and Gen Z) will become educated
in different ways than we were.

40. CONNECTING THE DOTS
• The auto industry will migrate to China and India
(much like the tobacco industry). Urban
populations will have fewer personally owned
single passenger vehicles. Millennials don’t want
cars and are very receptive to ride sharing.
• Except for “job saving” desperation moves (like
protecting the tobacco industry), the acceptance
of self-driving vehicles will be a personal and
societal wonder. Insurance, repair and fuel jobs
will disappear en masse.

41. CONNECTING THE DOTS
• Millennials, saddled with education debt,
underemployed and still living with their
parents: don’t get married, don’t start a
household, delay having children and
essentially tread water economically.
• Car? Furniture? Construction?

42. Moore’s Law
• Alternate term: Technological Deflation
• Based on the other factors we just
covered (plus unpayable debt, rising
interest rates from pricing in credit risk),
economic deflation is a very real
possibility.
• Today’s auto loans

43. CONNECTING THE DOTS
• The confluence of technological deflation and
economic deflation may result in a very
depressing economic state.
• If the primary workplace attribute of our citizens
is the willingness to show up for work, they will
join 40 million other Americans competing in the
same role.
• With technological and other labor saving efforts,
the private sector economy just won’t need
them.
• Who are we looking to for “job creation?”

44. WHAT’S A MOTHER TO DO?
• The, U.S. Government, armed with this foresight,
must incentivize the private sector to keep people
on the payroll – even as they are not needed.
• For those that are still not employed, WPA or CCC
“good deeds” work on behalf of the government
will provide food, shelter, clothing and health
care for the individual and family.
• Don’t even consider doing nothing. The societal
situation will be too explosive.

45. TRANSITION PERIOD AND TIMING

46. Green Energy

47. 3-D Printers

48. Baxter

49. Coding

50. Jobs of the Future
• Atmospheric Water Harvesters
• Sharability Auditors – People who analyze
homes and businesses for sharable assets.
• Super Baby Designers
• Drone Traffic Optimizers
• Avatar Relationship Managers
• Bio-Meat Factory Engineers
• Hospital and Healthcare Dismantlers

51. Thank you!
• Contact Information:
• rbencini@earthlink.net
• www.robbencini.com
• @robbencini
• 336.215-1995