Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Similar to Seven Tsunamis of Social Change
Similar to Seven Tsunamis of Social Change (20)
More from Greg Burkett
More from Greg Burkett (14)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Seven Tsunamis of Social Change
- 1. 1 Karl R. LaPan, President & CEO Leadership Showcase Breakfast October 21, 2020 Seven Tsunamis of Social Change Impacting Innovation and Entrepreneurship
- 2. Seven Tsunamis of Social Change
- 3. 3 Silver Tsunami Shifting Tsunami Skills Tsunami Subscription Tsunami Seven Tsunamis: Tidal Waves of Social Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Satisfaction Tsunami Solo-preneurship Tsunami Skyscraper Tsunami
- 5. 5 America is greying as aging baby-boomers transition out of the workforce and turning to entrepreneurship. Silver Tsunami • 55-64 age group start businesses at a higher rate than those in their 20s and 30s • By 2030, largest generation (>60 years old) • Controls 80% of US Wealth – Women will control more wealth than men • Largest consumer bloc of all – more buying power than millennials 1
- 6. 6 Seniors Have a High Rate of Entrepreneurship
- 7. 7 Half of all entrepreneurs may be in that age group [ages 55-64] by 2030. 2030 by Mauro F. Guillen “ “
- 8. 8 • Employed Boomers • Travel • Healthcare • Homecare • Assisted Living • Cosmeceutical skincare • Gen X – outcast, disgruntled, passed over • Millennials who can’t keep up (many will have financial stress for a lifetime) • Shrinking middle class Silver Tsunami
- 10. 10 Minority entrepreneurship is on the rise. One-third of early-stage activity is taking place among minority-owned businesses. Shifting Tsunami2 • Unique & higher barriers – cultural, access, networks, capital and business skills • Non-Hispanic whites will cease to be the majority group by 2055 (Pew Research) • Pandemic has hit harder minority entrepreneurs (1.5-2x the business closure rate of white business owners)* • 23% of all high-tech firms founded by immigrants (and 44 of 87 unicorns)**
- 11. 11 Share of white non-Hispanics in the labor force in declining
- 12. 12 African Americans Have a Higher Rate of Entrepreneurship
- 13. 13 https://www.inc.com/bartie-scott/challenges-faced-by-minority- entrepreneurs.html “ “Management, money, and markets. The data shows how these roadblocks hit minorities harder, causing founders to struggle and businesses to fail.
- 14. 14 • African-Americans Hispanic American Entrepreneurs • Women (>50% of World’s wealth by 2030) • Increased spending by women on insurance security, healthcare and education • Rural Communities • Single women/ divorced women • Redefining success – growth, profits, fame vs. goal achievement; work-family balance; community benefits Shifting Tsunami
- 16. 16 The rise of automation and advanced manufacturing is displacing many traditional factory jobs, requiring more emphasis on upskilling and on-the-job machine learning/artificial assistants. Skills Tsunami3 • 80 million US jobs at risk from automation. Future: More industrial robots than manufacturing workers* • FoxConn: 70% of their factory labor will be performed by robots by 2021 • IBM claims its Watson AI is better at diagnosing cancer than doctors (The robot will see you now!) • Delivery - Drone deliveries in less than 2 hours, brick and mortar retail viability questionable? • 8-10 jobs by age 38; 85% of jobs in 2030 not invented yet
- 17. 17 Manufacturing output has grown over the past three decades, even as payrolls have shrunk
- 18. 18 Automation will boost global productivity and raise GDP McKinsey & Company Productivity Growth % Automation can help provide some of the productivity needed to achieve future economic growth Employment Growth % Will slow drastically because of aging
- 19. 19 Professor Michael Hicks, Ball State University “ “We’ve lost the bad-paying jobs to China and gained good-paying jobs.
- 20. 20 • Artificial intelligence (autonomous vehicles) • IOT (200 B devices) • Advanced manufacturing • Digital Health (VR/AR) • 3D printing (logistics) • Middle-income occupations • Up to 1/3 of the US workforce may need to change occupations Skills Tsunami
- 22. 22 As lifestyles are permanently changed by the pandemic, people will seek on-demand, real- time, ongoing value and personalized services. Think Netflix, Amazon Prime, Spotify, Salesforce. Subscription Tsunami4 • $215B (2000) $420B (2020) • Bundled services rule the day • New service innovations in delivery driven by pandemic and lifestyle changes • The Sharing Economy – Transportation, Lodging, Freelancing, car sharing, coworking [$14B (2014) $335B (2025)] • Imagine no possessions, only use privileges
- 23. 23 “One monthly payment includes insurance coverage, maintenance and more.”
- 24. 24 Cloud Analytics Security Changing composition of IBM’s Business Model Hardware
- 25. 25 https://www.profitwell.com/recur/all/subscription-economy “ “Moving to a mode where the subscriber is at the center requires a lot of changes within your organization.
- 26. 26 • SaaS Companies • Payment and money management (mobile wallet providers) • Transient Gen Z workers • Local retailers • Small-scale makers • Physical product manufacturers (DVD vs. Netflix) Subscription Tsunami
- 28. 28 Businesses and workers have tasted the benefits of remote work, and many like it, but it is not without challenges to workplace productivity and collaboration. Satisfaction Tsunami5 • Business culture practices and connections will continue to evolve • Loneliness, isolation, and family “stress” offset by flexibility, less commute time will breed “hybrid” models • A majority of employees are psychologically unattached to their work and company (High well-being enhances engagement)
- 29. 29 What percent of your office employees do you anticipate will work remotely at least one day a week? 36% 25% 39% Before COVID-19 During COVID-19 2% 21% 77% After COVID-19 (Projected) 11% 34% 55% Few (0-29%) Many (30-59%) Most (60-100%)
- 30. 30
- 31. 31 54% of workers are not engaged – psychologically unattached to their work and company % Engaged % Actively disengaged U.S. Employee Engagement Trend: Annual Averages Note: 2018 results are for January through June GALLUP
- 32. 32 Wall Street Journal “ “Remote work is reshaping cities as tech workers flee and rents fall.
- 33. 33 Price Waterhouse “ “One-third of executives anticipate they’ll need less total office space in three years, primarily due to remote work.
- 34. • New management “flex” philosophy versus cash flow realities • Remote work is central part of future (multiple satellite communities) • Remote tools have improved • Must address need to come together, connect, build relationships, develop careers
- 35. 35 Price Waterhouse “ “Employees will not be returning to the same office they left behind. Everyone will need to find new ways to connect and collaborate.
- 36. 36 WSJ, 7/24/2020 “ “Projects take longer. Collaboration is harder. And training new workers is a struggle. This is not going to be sustainable.
- 37. 37 • Suburban commuters (60 million fewer commuting hours) • Millennials day good- bye to 9-5 work week entirely (2030) • Urban centers • Transportation industry (including mass transit) • Corporate culture Satisfaction Tsunami
- 39. 39 Some workers displaced by COVID-19 have developed side hustles to survive. Others have launched solo enterprises as a permanent replacement for traditional work. Solo-preneurship Tsunami and Survival Side Hustles 6 • 49% of Americans under the age of 35 now have a side hustle. • 85% of gig workers make < $500/month (on average) • Income levels are not necessarily determinants of who has a second income source (1:3 < $50K; 1:4 > $75K) • Highest level in last 2 decades – Motivators: # 1: Generating cash; #2: Learn new skills; #3: Start a business • Millennials (48%); Gen Xers (39%); Baby Boomer (28%) • Some studies have shown entrepreneurs ranked themselves happier than all other professions
- 40. 40 Wall Street Journal “ “More than a third of American workers – roughly 59 million people – took on some freelance work this year.
- 41. 41 The Rise and Fall of Traditional Employment Relative 3.5% decline Relative 22% increase
- 42. 42 Wall Street Journal, 2017 “ “The contractor model offers companies lower costs, more flexibility and fewer management headaches. Workers get far less from the arrangement.
- 43. 43 • Efficient online marketplaces that match worker’s skills to buyers’ needs –trillions of $ of freelance work moving to online marketplaces • 100 million freelancers/independent workers • Urban centers • Transportation industry (including mass transit) • Independent workers without insurance, retirement plans, peer networks Solo-preneur Tsunami
- 45. 45 More workers and businesses are beginning to flee cities in the wake of COVID-19 and social unrest, seeking refuge in rural and remote locations. It might be time to rethink our traditional models of commercial real estate development and collaborative workspace. Skyscraper Tsunami and the Slack Tide of Urbanism 7 • The digital economy makes possible what the pandemic makes necessary • “15-20” minute neighborhood (housing for all types + community services) all within walking distance • >37,000 brick and mortar stores closed since 2017; 35% of sales mix online & growing • People grow up, have kids maybe, want space. Millennials are leaving major cities • Remote working will drive rethinking pay structures
- 46. 46
- 47. 47 Domestic Immigration into Chicago, Los Angeles & New York
- 49. 49 Chicago Alderman Brian Hopkins If this trend continues, we won’t have a viable downtown.
- 50. 50 Ken Greenburg, Urban Planner “ “The solution is not density at any cost, but density done right. • Public perception –will they be less willing to embrace density post-pandemic? • Civil unrest in cities may make them less attractive • Work and play often define cities. How might these be reshaped?
- 51. 51 • Small and mid-size cities in the south and southwest • Home builders and realtors, especially in suburbs • Megacities • Commercial office space developers • American worker Skyscraper Tsunami
- 52. 52 1 Silver Tsunami 2 Shifting Tsunami 3 Skills Tsunami 4 Subscription Tsunami 5 Satisfaction Tsunami 6 Solo-preneurship Tsunami 7 Skyscraper Tsunami A Series of Giant Waves Triggered by Earthquakes
- 53. 53 1. Which of these tsunamis do you see impacting your business now? 2. How will these tsunamis impact your community over the next decade? 3. How are you pivoting your business/organization, community for a smaller, aging, diverse workforce? 4. What long-term business-model changes have been necessitated by COVID- 19? (Consider the NIIC’s Resource Guide.) Conversational Starters
- 54. www.TheNIIC.org
Editor's Notes
- Do these trends intersect? Will vacant office towers be replaced by more affordable residences for skilled employees working from home? Will cities become more affordable to an older and more diverse workforce? Will urban centers become more residential, less dependent on mass transit, and better supported by subscription and delivery services? Will a new wave of distributed headquarters and smaller entrepreneurial businesses bring fresh energy to our cities? Big Winners — innovators who can create products and services that ride these massive waves of social change.
- Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/224596/changes-in-composition-of-new-entrepreneurs-in-the-us-by-age/ “Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that workers in older age groups have higher rates of self-employment than other groups. Knowledge and resources gained through years of experience may put older workers in a good position to work for themselves.” (Source) “Many older people are starting businesses.” (source) Five of the 20 fastest growing industries (2019-2029) are in healthcare and social assistance, due in large measure to increased demand from aging seniors. (Source).
- Lower birth rates and higher retirement rates mean a shrinking white workforce. The face of the American entrepreneur is changing as persons of color increasingly launch and grow new businesses. Big winner – African-Americans and other minority entrepreneurs.
- Source: https://www.bls.gov/spotlight/2016/a-look-at-the-future-of-the-us-labor-force-to-2060/home.htm In the USA, the resident population is shrinking (see slide 2). The percentage of white workers is declining. (See slide 11.) By 2060, the Black or African-American population is expected to increase by 41%, the Hispanic population will increase by 94.5%, and the Asian population will increase by 101%, while the white non-Hispanic population will shrink by -9.5% (see page 7). “Hispanics are projected to increase their share of the labor force due to higher birth, labor force participation and immigration rates.” (See slide 10.) Population growth from immigration is rising (see slide 3). The foreign-born population is expected to increase by 58% by 2060 (see page 7).
- Source: https://www.gemconsortium.org/file/open?fileId=50421 “Minority entrepreneurship is on the rise. One-third of early-stage activity is taking place among minority-owned businesses. Among Africans and African/Americans, 20% are starting and running new businesses—up 15.5% from 2016. (source)
- Implications: As minorities and immigrants become a larger segment of the entire workforce, they should also be seen as a potential source for new waves of entrepreneurship and innovation. Describe what The NIIC is doing to cultivate “inclusive entrepreneurship.” — OPENS — Breakthrough — WEOC WBC
- Skills Tsunami — The rise of automation and advanced manufacturing is displacing many traditional factory jobs, requiring more emphasis on skilled labor and certificate-based training. Robots will replace upwards of 20 million factory jobs by 2030. “We’ve lost the bad-paying jobs to China and gained good-paying jobs.” Big Winner – advanced manufacturing. In early 2017, The Atlantic published a lengthy article with a provocative title: “America is Still Making Things.” The subtitle was equally provocative: “Manufacturing is dead. Long live manufacturing.” The dateline? Columbia City, Indiana. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/01/america-is-still-making-things/512282/ Micropulse is an example of the type of manufacturing that’s not going to disappear anytime soon from United States. It makes high-value products that would be difficult to make overseas because they are constantly being updated and are highly regulated. Many of these products are made by machines, but Emerick still needs workers to run and program those machines and to inspect the products once they’re completed. As some types of manufacturing disappear in America—manual jobs that can be performed in places like Mexico where there are lower wages, and repetitive ones that can be automated—other types are growing. So-called advanced manufacturing, which is highly specialized and requires a facility with computers, is actually expanding. The U.S. economy will need to fill 3.5 million skilled manufacturing jobs over the next decade, the White House says. This is an industry that employs skilled and educated workers such as engineers and scientists. It’s also an industry that adds significant value to the economy. Manufacturing output continues to rise in the U.S., and the average factory worker makes $180,000 worth of goods every year, more than three times what he produced in 1978.”
- “The BLS’ index of labor productivity for manufacturing is two and a half times higher than it was at the beginning of 1987. This reflects several factors, among them businesses investing more in machinery and replacing old machines with more advanced ones; workers becoming more skilled and educated; and firms streamlining and improving their industrial processes.” Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/25/most-americans-unaware-that-as-u-s-manufacturing-jobs-have-disappeared-output-has-grown/
- Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/digital%20disruption/harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/a-future-that-works-executive-summary-mgi-january-2017.ashx
- “The mantra that we’ve lost good-paying jobs to China is exactly wrong,” said Michael Hicks, an economics professor at Ball State University who has studied manufacturing in Indiana. “We’ve lost the bad-paying jobs to China and gained good-paying jobs.” Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/01/america-is-still-making-things/512282/ Implications: Indiana needs more programs like the Workforce Ready Grant recently awarded to Northeast Indiana Works to provide skills-based certification training in key industries.
- Subscription Tsunami — As people's lifestyles are permanently changed by the pandemic, they will seek new, alternative ways to obtain services that improve daily life. Spiking demand will create disruptive “bundling” (Product + Service) opportunities for innovation to pivot toward subscription-based business models. Big winner – hybrid businesses delivering both goods and services. In the digital economy, American consumers increasingly purchase goods with bundled services. “New inkjet printers come with ink replacement subscriptions; Cars come with navigation services; Smart TVs come networked to stream. Exercise equipment now comes with live-streamed instructions. Key policymakers and economists, who are keen on promoting the growth of their own domestic companies, have no choice but to sort through this increasingly hybridized business landscape.” https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/citi-2018/the-american-economy-is-experiencing-a-paradigm-shift/2008/ Innovations in services can make traditional industries like manufacturing and farming more competitive. (source) Just a few years ago, who would have thought that fast food wasn’t fast enough? Just look at the rise of new service companies like Door Dash, Grub Hub, and Uber Eats that bring food direct to your door. In the pandemic, services like curbside pickup and home delivery have become everyday experiences for millions of consumers. Implications: There is enormous opportunity for innovation and entrepreneurship in the service sector, especially as lifestyles change due to the pandemic.
- One monthly payment includes insurance coverage, maintenance and more.
- IBM, once an industrial giant, has seen its business model shift toward technology services. “IBM’s so-called ‘strategic imperatives’ — primarily cloud, analytics and security — grew 26 percent from the previous year, and for the first time accounted for more than half of all revenue for a quarter, CFO James Kavanaugh told investors in a second-quarter earnings call. Those high-growth businesses contributed $10.1 billion to IBM's total quarterly revenue of $20 billion—an overall 4 percent improvement over the same quarter of the previous year. The company also reported GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations of $2.61 for the quarter.” Source: https://www.crn.com/news/cloud/300106741/ibm-sees-cloud-security-revenue-soar-in-q2.htm Volvo subscription, Apple disruption
- Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/citi-2018/the-american-economy-is-experiencing-a-paradigm-shift/2008/
- Photo credit: https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/sc-cons-0805-work-from-home-backyard-office-shed-20200803-s7bmn7rvujca3dtm4z7fob7nzi-story.html Satisfaction Tsunami — The tug of war exists between culture and well-being versus convenience and safety. Leaders keep moving and success will come to those who evolve the smartest and fastest. Big winner – Employers who innovate ways to increase both worker satisfaction and productivity. Businesses and workers have tasted the benefits of remote work, and many like it. Will flexible work accommodations become an expected perk? What impacts will this shift have on job satisfaction, social well-being, creative collaboration, and corporate culture? From the same article: “Google-parent Alphabet Inc. last month said employees won’t be returning to the office until at least the summer of 2021, in part so they can sign one-year leases somewhere else. Facebook Inc. recently said its employees could stay away for that long too. The social-media giant, which has 52,000 employees, expects to shift to a substantially remote workforce over the coming decade, and is now recruiting a director of remote work. Other companies including Twitter Inc. and Slack Technologies Inc. have declared most of their employees can work remotely for good.” Homeowners are settling into the new reality by building “tiny offices” in the backyard. The Chicago Tribune reports that business is booming for manufacturers of prefab deluxe sheds. Implications: Remote workers may experience feelings of social isolation and disenfranchisement. Business leaders must invent new ways to motivate employees, create collaboration, maintain productivity, and cultivate corporate culture outside traditional office workspaces. New products and services catering to remote workers will be in high demand.
- “PwC’s June survey of executives and office workers shows that a permanent flexible workweek (and perhaps workday) has broad support. Most office workers (83%) want to work from home at least one day a week, and half of employers (55%) anticipate that most of their workers will do so long after COVID-19 is not a concern.” Source: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html
- Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-is-dividing-the-american-worker-11598068859
- Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-work-is-reshaping-san-francisco-as-tech-workers-flee-and-rents-fall-11597413602 The Wall Street Journal reported that “remote work is reshaping San Francisco as tech workers flee and rents fall.” “By giving their employees the freedom to work from anywhere, Bay Area tech companies appear to have touched off an exodus. ‘Why do we even want to be here?’ Other companies are following suit: “Open Text, with 15,000 employees around the world, recently …a reduction of the company’s office space footprint by up to 50 percent.” Source: https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2020/density-can-work-post-covid-19-with-good-urban-planning/
- Quote Source: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html
- Source: https://www.rei.com/blog/rei-news/evolving-the-future-of-headquarters-work The same thing is happening in Seattle. REI completed a new headquarters there in 2018, but has now put the buildings up for sale. “We have made the decision to pursue a sale of our buildings and land in Bellevue’s Spring District—and, with that sale, to step toward a new model for our headquarters that will better serve the way we live, work and act as a force for positive change. “The dramatic events of 2020 have challenged us to reexamine and rethink every aspect of our business and many of the assumptions of the past. That includes where and how we work. “We’ve been expanding our mobile work capabilities for the past several years in preparation for our planned headquarters move. Our progress was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic—we learned that the more distributed way of working we previously thought untenable will instead unlock incredible potential. “As a result, our new experience of “headquarters” will be very different than the one we imagined more than four years ago. Rather than a single location, our “headquarters” will span multiple satellites across the greater Seattle area. Remote working will move from a temporary solve to a more engrained, supported, and normalized model for many of our headquarters employees. … “With that said, I recognize working from home, and in multiple locations, brings with it, not only increased flexibility, but its own set of unique challenges. If you’re like me, you miss the sense of community. You miss hallway conversations. You miss in-person work-sessions. You miss our incredible cultural moments, like Anderson Awards. This is a huge part of what COVID-19 has taken away. But I am confident we can solve for all of that and more through innovation, collaboration and imagination.”
- Source: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html Big concerns: Productivity Collaboration Mental Health Stratified Workforce — winners and losers
- Source: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html Big concerns: Productivity Collaboration Mental Health Stratified Workforce — winners and losers
- Photo credit: https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/sc-cons-0805-work-from-home-backyard-office-shed-20200803-s7bmn7rvujca3dtm4z7fob7nzi-story.html Solo-preneurship Tsunami — Some workers displaced by COVID-19 have developed side hustles to survive. Others have launched solo enterprises as a permanent replacement for traditional work. What long-term impacts will result in the economy? 27 million Americans are starting or running new businesses, based on 2017 data reported in the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) United States Report. (source) An estimated 11 percent of the working adult population in the U.S. are working primarily as full-time independent contractors in the gig economy. (source) According to this report, “Many of the entrepreneurs run non-employer businesses--meaning they have no W-2 employees… Many plan to hire while others are content to stay the size they are. The survey found 29.3% of owners don’t expect to create new jobs.” (source) In addition, Fortune reports that “49% of Americans under age 35 now report having a side-hustle.” (source) Public policy implications and societal impact (tax, health, retirement) Implications: The gig economy increases business agility. It forces businesses to compete for top talent. It offers flexibility for workers as well as employers. (source) Solopreneurship requires new ways to measure business success and to evaluate credit worthiness.
- Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/pandemic-spurs-a-freelance-boom-4210801/ More than a third of American workers — roughly 59 million people — took on some freelance work this year as the pandemic spurred rapid changes in the job market, according to a report commissioned by Upwork. Independent contract work altogether brought in some $1.2 trillion in annual earnings, marking a 22% increase from last year. The trend is also reflected in U.S. Census Bureau figures, which show a rise in self-employment, as well as in the valuations of businesses tied to freelance work, Bloomberg reports. Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/pandemic-spurs-a-freelance-boom-4210801/ .
- IRS data indexed at George Mason University shows a relative 22 percent increase in the number of 1099 forms since 2000 and a relative decline of 3.5 percent in the number of W-2 forms. Source: https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/Evaluating-Growth-1099_Dourado_MOP_v2.pdf Updates from MBO Partner’s 2018 report: 41.8 million adult Americans work independently. The MBO survey projects 3.6 percent annual growth in this workforce and that during the next five years half the adult U.S. population will have worked independently, but that includes in the mix people who freelance only part-time or occasionally. “Independent workers generated roughly $1.3 trillion of revenue for the U.S. economy, equal to about 6.7 percent of U.S. GDP.” 19 percent of full-time freelancers are exporters of services. Source: https://nation1099.com/gig-economy-data-freelancer-study/#forms
- Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-contractors-life-overlooked-ground-down-and-stuck-1505400087
- In 2019, before the pandemic, The Atlantic reported that cities were losing people at a dramatic rate. 277 people moved out of New York every day. 201 people moved out of Los Angeles every day. 161 people moved out of Chicago every day. Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/americas-three-biggest-metros-shrinking/597544/
- The pandemic created a sense of urgency.
- This is not a new trend. In 2019, before the pandemic, The Atlantic reported that cities were losing people at a dramatic rate. 277 people moved out of New York every day. 201 people moved out of Los Angeles every day. 161 people moved out of Chicago every day. Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/americas-three-biggest-metros-shrinking/597544/
- Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-pandemic-will-change-face-retail/610738/ The pandemic has accelerated existing trends, including the decline of retail. Hardest hit will be the department stores anchoring malls. Independent retailers will continue to be displaced by Walmart, Costco, Home Depot, Dollar General — and Amazon. Restaurant spending has declined 60% and chains have claimed $3 of every $4 spent. Dine-in is being replaced by delivery. For restaurants, the pandemic has been as disruptive as Prohibition. Flattening of the City. As independent stores and restaurants are displaced by more resilient chains, every city will start to look like every other city. Empty shops are not good for downtowns. The author predicts an all-delivery economy. One third of Americans have purchased groceries online within the past month. You no longer need to go anywhere to get anything. This will create enormous demand for delivery workers and autonomous vehicles. After the pandemic takes its toll, cities may become less expensive. “When rents fall, mom-and-pop stores will rise again… immigrants will return…cheaper empty spaces will be incubators for stores that serve up ancient pleasures, like coffee and books, and novel combinations of health tech, fitness, and apparel.”
- Source: https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/08/07/chicagos-magnificent-mile-at-risk-for-massive-store-closures/ Headline: Chicago’s Magnificent Mile At Risk For Massive Store Closures, Alderman Says “Just two months ago it was the epicenter of unrest. Then this week there was a murder on Oak Street and Michigan Avenue. All of that is on top of a pandemic that has taken a toll on everyone. The Mag Mile businesses aren’t unique, but Ald. Brian Hopkins (2nd) said it is the recent violence and spike in burglaries that is causing real concern now.” “Privately they’re telling me they can’t sustain this. They can’t continue at the level they’re at right now, and if it keeps up, we are going to see a rash of business closures in the downtown area,” he said.
- Quote: Ken Greenburg, urban planning consultant: Speaking with the Daily Commercial News, he argued in favour of “bringing public health experts to the urban design table… to offer a fresh perspective on neighborhood design features that promote physical and mental well-being. Source: https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2020/density-can-work-post-covid-19-with-good-urban-planning/