These are the intro sheets and supporting trends for the four scenarios I'm presenting at the 2009 NMC Symposium for the Future.

1. Technology's Failure: Four Futures Where It's Gone Terribly Wrong(or mostly wrong) Peter BG Shoemaker, Pinyon PartnersThe New Media Consortium2009 Symposium for the FutureOctober 28, 2009

2. Scenario 1: Doppelganger © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

3. Doppelganger trends Maturing virtual learning spaces; economic disparity between regions; continuing and deepening globalization; growing importance of China/India/developing world;continuing and increasingly competitiveness for postsecondary educational credentials; climate warming and economic vitalization. © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

4. Scenario 2: Stopgap © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

5. Stopgap trends Aging population in the West; US just barely holding steady in new births; social safety net funding insufficient; career turnover; constant economic requirement for new skills and education; elders aging into complete self-sufficiency (and comfort) with technology and Internet; nature of jobs changing, stressing mental over physical labor. © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

6. Scenario 3: Unanimity © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

7. Unanimity trends Information/data/connection glut; Social media continues its domination (along with its accompanying discontents); collaborative innovation growing in popularity; social network attacks; social networks influencing physiological processes; Western preoccupation with terror and its definition (and identification) © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

8. Scenario 4: Polis © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

9. Polis trends Increasing velocity of urbanization; maturation of customization and personalization technologies; digitalization of all published works; changing tensions between macroeconomic actors (state and federal govt; regions and nations; country and city); increasingly pervasive efforts to evaluate educational ROI. © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC

10. Commentary or discussion: © 2009 Pinyon Partners, LLC pshoemaker@pinyonpartners.com