China faces significant energy challenges due to its heavy reliance on coal and growing dependence on oil imports. China consumes more coal than any other country and coal use is rising significantly. By 2020, China is projected to import 80% of the oil it uses. Rapid economic and industrial growth are driving increases in China's energy use and carbon emissions. However, China is pursuing many policies and solutions to improve energy efficiency and increase renewable energy, which could help address its energy challenges and reduce environmental and health impacts if successfully implemented.
Today’s renewable energy sources are very important for lots of countries. Therefore, many countries start to change and implement their policies. Especially, in Turkey and Europe the importance of solar and wind energies influence the energy policies.
Today’s renewable energy sources are very important for lots of countries. Therefore, many countries start to change and implement their policies. Especially, in Turkey and Europe the importance of solar and wind energies influence the energy policies.
Energy Efficiency Resolution Lib Int Congress 2009Centerpartiet
Resolution to the Liberal International Congress in Cairo 2009. Resolution on Energy Efficiency.
Resolution till Liberala Internationalens kongressi Kairo 2009. Resolution om Energieffektivisering.
Watch World Energy Outlook 2017 authors discuss the outlook for power, renewables, and energy efficiency following the release of World Energy Outlook 2017: http://bit.ly/2zcIAsL
The Global Survey of the Electrical Energy Distribution System: A ReviewIJECEIAES
This paper gives a review of energy scenario in India and other countries. Today’s demand of the world is to minimize greenhouse gas emissions, during the production of electricity. Henceforth over the world, the production of electrical power is changing by introducing abundantly available renewable energy sources like sun and wind. But, because of the intermittent nature of sustainable power sources, the electrical power network faces many problems, during the transmission and distribution of electricity. For resolving these issues, Electrical Energy Storage (EES) is acknowledged as supporting technology. This paper discusses about the world electrical energy scenario with top renowned developed countries in power generation and consumption. Contribution of traditional power sources changed after the introduction of renewable energy sources like sun and wind. Worldwide Agencies are formed like International Energy Agency (IEA), The Central Intelligence Agency, (CIS) etc. The main aim of these agencies is to provide reliable, affordable and clean energy. This paper will discuss about the regulatory authority and government policies/incentives taken by different countries. At the end of this paper, author focuses on obstacles in implementation, development and benefits of renewable energy.
What does energy efficiency matter? Energy efficiency is the single most cost-effective way of lowering greenhouse gas emissions and an essential component of any strategy to reach long-term emission reduction goals. It also boosts economic productivity, improves energy security, reduces expenditure on fuels and energy infrastructure, reduces air pollution and develops the energy services industry.
If Australia improved its energy efficiency by just an extra one per cent each year it would generate an additional $8 billion in GDP by 2020 and $26 billion by 2030. This is an important contribution to improving Australia’s productivity, as well as cutting our energy bills and carbon pollution.
For more information please visit www.climateinstitute.org.au/boosting-australias-energy-productivity.html
Energy Efficiency Resolution Lib Int Congress 2009Centerpartiet
Resolution to the Liberal International Congress in Cairo 2009. Resolution on Energy Efficiency.
Resolution till Liberala Internationalens kongressi Kairo 2009. Resolution om Energieffektivisering.
Watch World Energy Outlook 2017 authors discuss the outlook for power, renewables, and energy efficiency following the release of World Energy Outlook 2017: http://bit.ly/2zcIAsL
The Global Survey of the Electrical Energy Distribution System: A ReviewIJECEIAES
This paper gives a review of energy scenario in India and other countries. Today’s demand of the world is to minimize greenhouse gas emissions, during the production of electricity. Henceforth over the world, the production of electrical power is changing by introducing abundantly available renewable energy sources like sun and wind. But, because of the intermittent nature of sustainable power sources, the electrical power network faces many problems, during the transmission and distribution of electricity. For resolving these issues, Electrical Energy Storage (EES) is acknowledged as supporting technology. This paper discusses about the world electrical energy scenario with top renowned developed countries in power generation and consumption. Contribution of traditional power sources changed after the introduction of renewable energy sources like sun and wind. Worldwide Agencies are formed like International Energy Agency (IEA), The Central Intelligence Agency, (CIS) etc. The main aim of these agencies is to provide reliable, affordable and clean energy. This paper will discuss about the regulatory authority and government policies/incentives taken by different countries. At the end of this paper, author focuses on obstacles in implementation, development and benefits of renewable energy.
What does energy efficiency matter? Energy efficiency is the single most cost-effective way of lowering greenhouse gas emissions and an essential component of any strategy to reach long-term emission reduction goals. It also boosts economic productivity, improves energy security, reduces expenditure on fuels and energy infrastructure, reduces air pollution and develops the energy services industry.
If Australia improved its energy efficiency by just an extra one per cent each year it would generate an additional $8 billion in GDP by 2020 and $26 billion by 2030. This is an important contribution to improving Australia’s productivity, as well as cutting our energy bills and carbon pollution.
For more information please visit www.climateinstitute.org.au/boosting-australias-energy-productivity.html
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 (12.8.2017)Brad Keithley
The slidedeck used by International Energy Agency Executive Director Dr Fatih Birol to introduce IEA's 2017 World Energy Outlook. A deep dive both into LNG and China.
Energy Efficiency: A Sign of Personal Virtue or an Untapped Business Opportun...Sasin SEC
by Peter du Pont, Vice-President, Government & Clean Energy Consulting, Nexant Inc.
According to the Asian Development Bank, a total of $944 billion of investment will be needed in energy savings opportunities by 2020 in order for China, India, and Southeast Asian countries to meet their national targets for EE and greenhouse gas emission reductions. Yet only a fraction of this investment is currently being planned. This talk will address the proverbial $20 bill lying on the ground and describe why there are so few takers, and what is needed to “sex” up energy efficiency so that it becomes a more broadly bankable business opportunity. It will describe different business and regulatory models for stimulating investments in energy efficiency in buildings, factories, and the transport sector.
Dr. Peter du Pont leads the clean energy initiatives at Nexant Asia and has more than 25 years of experience developing sustainable energy and efficiency programs in the U.S. and Asia.
A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute - 10 Facts, An Introduction to Energ...Kearney
The A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute is a nonprofit organization. It provides leading insights on globaltrends in energy transition, technologies, and strategic implications for private sector businesses and publicsector institutions. The Institute is dedicated to combining objective technological insights with economicalperspectives to define the consequences and opportunities for decision makers in a rapidly changing energylandscape. The independence of the Institute fosters unbiased primary insights and the ability to co-createnew ideas with interested sponsors and relevant stakeholders.
Plenary Keynote at the 5th International Conference on Smart Energy Systems, 4th Generation District Heating, Electrification, Electrofuels and Energy Efficiency, Aalborg University, 10-11 September, 2019, Copenhagen
Alliance President Kateri Callahan at the World Energy Engineering ConferenceAlliance To Save Energy
On October 1st Alliance President Kateri Callahan had the honor of delivering the keynote address at the World Energy Engineering Conference (WEEC) in Washington, DC. With the theme, “Visions for Sustainability and Climate Change”, the conference was attended by over 500 international energy industry professionals keen to learn more about carbon reduction and sustainable business practices. In my presentation, Callahan highlighted opportunities – many of them falling within the provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 – open to both the building and industrial sectors to lower carbon emissions in a cost-effective manner. Energy efficiency is integral to this process, and she shared with audience the myriad of ways that this – our quickest, cleanest and cheapest source of energy – can fuel the industrial and building sectors as they forge that path toward sustainability.
Responding to energy efficiency challenge marianne osterkornreeep
Presentation by Dr. Marianne Osterkorn at DoE conference on 3-4th June 2010 in Istanbul, giving an overview of energy efficiency efforts around the world.
In the present generation energy plays a vital role in our world and for human life it´s very important factor. There is a methodical meeting taking place regarding the conservation of energy and every time there is a review in the agenda. Energy demand and supply were endeavored by these countries. To rectify these problems, there should be more research in the generation of energy with the greater efficiency and try to use energy in more efficient manner. Solar energy remains as the most prominent source of energy as it is cost effective and environmentally friendly. Reviews convey that solar energy systems will play a major role in the power generations. As per present scenario there is a great importance to the solar energy using photovoltaic systems. Photovoltaic systems exhibit an important role for solar energy production.
Search and Society: Reimagining Information Access for Radical FuturesBhaskar Mitra
The field of Information retrieval (IR) is currently undergoing a transformative shift, at least partly due to the emerging applications of generative AI to information access. In this talk, we will deliberate on the sociotechnical implications of generative AI for information access. We will argue that there is both a critical necessity and an exciting opportunity for the IR community to re-center our research agendas on societal needs while dismantling the artificial separation between the work on fairness, accountability, transparency, and ethics in IR and the rest of IR research. Instead of adopting a reactionary strategy of trying to mitigate potential social harms from emerging technologies, the community should aim to proactively set the research agenda for the kinds of systems we should build inspired by diverse explicitly stated sociotechnical imaginaries. The sociotechnical imaginaries that underpin the design and development of information access technologies needs to be explicitly articulated, and we need to develop theories of change in context of these diverse perspectives. Our guiding future imaginaries must be informed by other academic fields, such as democratic theory and critical theory, and should be co-developed with social science scholars, legal scholars, civil rights and social justice activists, and artists, among others.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
91mobiles recently conducted a Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey in which we asked over 3,000 respondents about the TV they own, aspects they look at on a new TV, and their TV buying preferences.
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
Slack (or Teams) Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Soluti...Jeffrey Haguewood
Sidekick Solutions uses Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutions Apricot) and automation solutions to integrate data for business workflows.
We believe integration and automation are essential to user experience and the promise of efficient work through technology. Automation is the critical ingredient to realizing that full vision. We develop integration products and services for Bonterra Case Management software to support the deployment of automations for a variety of use cases.
This video focuses on the notifications, alerts, and approval requests using Slack for Bonterra Impact Management. The solutions covered in this webinar can also be deployed for Microsoft Teams.
Interested in deploying notification automations for Bonterra Impact Management? Contact us at sales@sidekicksolutionsllc.com to discuss next steps.
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 previewPrayukth K V
The IoT and OT threat landscape report has been prepared by the Threat Research Team at Sectrio using data from Sectrio, cyber threat intelligence farming facilities spread across over 85 cities around the world. In addition, Sectrio also runs AI-based advanced threat and payload engagement facilities that serve as sinks to attract and engage sophisticated threat actors, and newer malware including new variants and latent threats that are at an earlier stage of development.
The latest edition of the OT/ICS and IoT security Threat Landscape Report 2024 also covers:
State of global ICS asset and network exposure
Sectoral targets and attacks as well as the cost of ransom
Global APT activity, AI usage, actor and tactic profiles, and implications
Rise in volumes of AI-powered cyberattacks
Major cyber events in 2024
Malware and malicious payload trends
Cyberattack types and targets
Vulnerability exploit attempts on CVEs
Attacks on counties – USA
Expansion of bot farms – how, where, and why
In-depth analysis of the cyber threat landscape across North America, South America, Europe, APAC, and the Middle East
Why are attacks on smart factories rising?
Cyber risk predictions
Axis of attacks – Europe
Systemic attacks in the Middle East
Download the full report from here:
https://sectrio.com/resources/ot-threat-landscape-reports/sectrio-releases-ot-ics-and-iot-security-threat-landscape-report-2024/
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
Key Trends Shaping the Future of Infrastructure.pdfCheryl Hung
Keynote at DIGIT West Expo, Glasgow on 29 May 2024.
Cheryl Hung, ochery.com
Sr Director, Infrastructure Ecosystem, Arm.
The key trends across hardware, cloud and open-source; exploring how these areas are likely to mature and develop over the short and long-term, and then considering how organisations can position themselves to adapt and thrive.
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
Speakers:
👨🏫 Andras Palfi, Senior Product Manager, UiPath
👩🏫 Lenka Dulovicova, Product Program Manager, UiPath
18. China’s Crude Oil Imports Middle East 45% Europe and Western Hemisphere 14% Asia-Pacific 12% Africa 29% Source: Calculated from data in China OGP, February 1, 2005.
19. China’s Oil Use Catching Up With U.S. Source: Feng An, Consultant
30. Renewable Energy Law Source: National Development and Reform Commission, Medium and Long-term RE Targets Renewables to be 15% of all electricity in 2020
41. Clean Energy Solutions Gigatons coal equivalent Business as Usual Low-Carbon Path Buildings Efficiency Industrial Efficiency Vehicle Efficiency Renewables & Gas Source: LBNL
Editor's Notes
This is how China’s energy mix compared to the rest of the world. China has the dirtiest energy mix on earth. Coal and oil overwhelmingly dominate China’s energy mix China has a long way to go if to diversify into cleaner resources. Natural gas, which is the main resource the US has tapped in reducing criteria air pollutants, is only 3% of China’s energy mix China has aggressive expansion plans for NG, to 8% by 2010. --- China’s gov’t is accelerating a nat’l network of gas pipelines; 2500-milie west-to-east pipeline from Xinjiang to Shanghai opened last year. China is preparing to import more LNG, and anticipates imports will be 40% of China’s gas demand in 2025. Developing LNG terminals along the Guangdong coast. Nuclear: plans to add 24-32 plants by 2020 (4X current capacity). Mostly Russian equipment, although the Ex-Im Bank is developing a $5 billion loan package for nuclear. (The public interest would be far better served if that loan would go into energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies.)
China is but the first developing country having adopted a market economy that is surging out of the gates. Yet China is the most coal-dependent economy on earth. And is the world’s second largest energy consumer, behind the US. Two-thirds of its energy comes from coal; China is by far the world’s largest coal consumer, surpassing 2.1 billion metric tons in 2005, more coal than the U.S., Russia, and India combined. Eighty percent of China’s electricity comes from coal. The carbon dioxide emissions from coal are slated to at least double over the next 15 years, and could triple.
Oil demand is surging; i n only 10 years, China has become the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States China is now burning 6.3 million barrels of oil a day (2.3 billion barrels per year). Ten years ago, China was a net oil exporter; it now imports 45%. Oil demand is climbing because China's oil consuming heavy industries are growing at breakneck speed And second, consumers are rapidly buying cars. Year-on-year vehicle sales increased 20% last year in China's larger eastern cities (down from 80% in 2003 due to tighter consumer credit).
China’s energy growth has been explosive. (80,000 sky-rise buildings built per year for 15 years!). GDP has averaged 9.6% per year for 25 years! Energy is growing at over 10%; electricity at over 15%; Coal is up 20% year-on-year, to over 2 billion tons/year, 95% more than the US; Oil consumption has hit 6.3 million barrels a day, about one-third of US oil consumption (which is 20 MMBD) Current growth is significantly faster than the high growth scenario adopted by the State Council three years ago and incorporated in China’s National Energy Plan for 2020 (an effort CSEP supported). Electricity shortages are still rampant in 24 provinces. Local governments are adding one 1,000-MW power plant every week in 2005; nearly all are coal . There is a sense that energy growth is out of control, with local provinces building unauthorized power plants as rapidly as possible to keep up with demand. ERI now foresees that electricity supply will come into balance with demand in 2007, a “boom-bust” investment cycle, which is why we see mostly capital flight currently from China’s electricity sector.
The main downside of the heavy-industry development path is the human and environmental costs. Coal and cars are the main drivers of China’s rapid air quality deterioration. The World Bank estimates that China’s annual pollution costs amount to around 8% of GDP. According to the World Health Organization, 16 of the world’s 20 most air polluted cities are in China. Respiratory and heart diseases from polluted air kill half a million people per year, and cause over 75 million asthma attacks. Under any definition, this is a severe health crisis wrought by dependence on fossil fuels and burning those fuels in antiquated technologies.
Another reason why we should care about China’s fossil emissions is that those emissions are landing on the US. The map at top center shows the prevailing atmospheric conveyor transporting Chinese pollutants to the U.S. where they’re deposited in soils and water supplies. Mercury, a major pollutant that results from burning coal, is an under-recognized neurotoxin that accumulates in the food chain and is particularly toxic to fetuses and children, damaging IQ. 40% of US Hg originates abroad, and a quarter of all Hg emissions globally come from China. Note of course that 60%, the majority of Hg in the U.S., originates right here, much from coal-fired power plants that were grandfathered under the 1970 Clean Air Act and are to this day allowed to operate without any pollution control equipment.
China and the US are the world's top two carbon dioxide emitters. And are the world’s two Kyoto non-participants China is likely to surpass the U.S. as the world’s number one carbon emitter by about 2025. We cannot solve global warming without addressing US and Chinese carbon emissions. At the same time, China consumes 1/8 the energy per capita as the US, and historically, has emitted less than 1/3 of the carbon as the US. 75% of greenhouse gas emissions originate in industrialized countries, 80% of the cumulative emissions to date originate in industrialized countries. These countries must take the lead in adopting policy measures against climate change. Still, if the average Chinese consumed as much energy as the average American, China alone would be emitting the entire world’s current CO2 emissions plus 22% (I.e., today’s global emissions would be 122% greater).
The likelihood is growth will continue. Here you see the scale of the US economy in blue, and China in red China’s economy today is 1/7th the size of the US, and 1/3 the size of Japan (in green). China’s GDP will likely grow 7-fold by mid-century. This century will be a story of three economies, China, likely to reach parity with the scale of the US economy by 2050, and India, which is rapidly emerging alongside China. As a relative share of global GDP, other economies will be less influential. The greatest challenge of this century will be how the US handles the emergence of China and India. And we would acknowledge that China is harder due to the language barrier, lack of transparency, and the undercapacity of government institutions.
Putting China into perspective, China’s population is nearly 5x that of the US. China’s workforce, as urbanization advances, will likely be 5-6X larger by 2030. Already, in the last decade, China has expanded the global workforce by half. The US with 4% of the world’s population consumes 25% of the oil; China, with 20% of the world’s population, consumes 8% of the oil (1/3 of the oil as the US, but twice the coal).
China’s GDP is 1/8th that of the US. (US $40,100; China $5000) In per capita terms, China’s economy is ranked 100th in the world.
And China’s per capita energy consumption is also 1/8 that of the US. Current growth trends foresee China catching up to U.S. energy levels in the next four decades. I f everyone of China’s 1.3 billion people were to use 8 times more energy everyday (the same per capita consumption as in the U.S.), China’s carbon emissions—the main pollutant implicated in global warming—would equal the entire world’s current CO2 emissions plus 22% (i.e., China would double the entire world’s current carbon emissions plus 22 percent). That’s where we’re headed unless we help China with the “3 Transcendences” and become supportive in its quest for (1) sustainable development, (2) a peaceful rise, and (3) the rule of law.
Energy is growing so quickly because China is becoming the “factory of the world”. The bulk of its economic output comes from highly energy-intensive industries. With less than four percent of global GDP, China consumes 40 percent of the world's coal, half the cement, a third of the iron, a quarter of the steel. Accompanying this heavy industrial structure is a tremendous waste of energy. Whereas the US is about 2/3 service industries, China is about 2/3 heavy industry. There is some controversy underway in China within policy circles regarding whether China is choosing the wrong development path. China’s emphasis on heavy-industry development is due in part to a desire to maintain energy independence. China is also building its infrastructure very quickly; for example, China has built 80,000 sky-rise buildings per year for twenty years, the largest and fastest construction boom in the history of the world.
China has now flipped the historic trend. Energy is now growing 1.5 times faster than the overall economy. Last year, China surpassed 2 billion metric tons of coal consumption, twice the level of the US. China added over 50 GW of new electricity plants, nearly all of which were coal-fired. Installed capacity exceeded 420 GW at the end of 2004, and China intends to add another 50-60 GW of electricity plants this year; I have heard that some 200 GW are under construction. As a result, China’s energy growth now exceeds GDP, and economic dislocations are mounting.
I’ll at least mention more broadly the expected oil demand scenario for Asia; this is EIA data. By 2025, oil demand from “emerging Asia” which includes China and India could exceed all other regions of the world; Global oil demand is slated to grow 35% over the next two decades; Oil demand from China & India is to double, such that emerging Asia could comprise 30% of global oil demand. Current trend is certainly daunting; World oil demand in 2004 was increasing faster than at any other point in the past 16 years -especially demand from China and India. --------- Supply: Several oil-producing countries have undergone turmoil affecting their ability to produce at full-capacity - Iraq and Venezuela Speculation: In August 2004, OPEC Secretary General Maizar Rahman estimated speculation was adding $10-15 to the oil price.
The relative size of China’s fleet is small, only about 30 million vehicles total; US has an order of magnitude more. Based on experiences in other countries, we can expect substantial growth in the years ahead. Major studied have concluded that Chinese vehicle population will grow exponentially in the next 20-30 years. By 2030, the Chinese vehicle population could reach the U.S. level. China’s energy security, especially oil security, will much depend on the ability to conserve as much transportation fuel as possible through fuel economy standards, price fuels according to social costs, diversify fuels to other alternatives, and Reduction in vehicle usage while satisfying people’s desire of owning cars
In 1993, China became a net oil importing country It is estimated that Chinese oil reserve can only supply Chinese demand for less that 15 years In 2004, China imported nearly 40% of its oil demand It is predicted that by 2010, China will import more than 60% of its oil The share of imports from the Middle East will expand About half the total oil consumed per day is traded by tanker 80% of this travels through various sea lane choke points. 75% of Japan and China’s oil travels through the Straits of Malacca. Let’s consider 4 implications of China’s increasing oil demand: Global oil security; 2. Ambient air quality impacts on public health in China; 3. Ambient air impacts here in the U.S.; and 4. the wild card, global warming. Regarding oil security, China has been focused less on saving energy and more on securing supply. China’s leaders are desperately trying to to prevent energy from becoming a bottleneck, undermining economic growth and social stability. Coal, already at 2 billion tons per year with demand for it cascading ahead at over 15% per annum, can’t be mined or transported fast enough; electricity shortages plague 24 provinces. Local officials must absorb 10 million new job entrants per year due to population growth, plus the central government plans to move 300 million from the countryside into cities over the next 15 years. Economic development is by far the highest priority at the local level, drowning out the center’s calls for sustainable development. As we push back on China’s merchantilist approach (locking up supply so less is available to the market, instead of investing to help bring new supplies to the market), there is a serious environmental risk of pushing China to develop liquid fuels from coal. China’s coal reserves can supply its demand for more than 120 years If we in the west aim to restrict China’s access to oil, the repercussions are severe, in terms of the threat of war, but also to the global climate. There are two ways to make tpo fuels from coal, one dirty, using direct liquefaction; the other relatively clean as it is based on turning coal into a gas. It is imperative that we help China do the latter. More on this later. Oil imports, already 45% of oil demand, will accelerate in the decades ahead. A sense of oil insecurity has set in.
Oil use in U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet will continue grow from 9 million B/D in 2000 to 18 million B/D in 2030 Oil use by Chinese light-duty vehicle fleet could grow to 12 million B/D in 2030 With improved vehicle fuel economy, a lower growth trajectory is possible to cut oil use by half in 2030 in China
Local governments are adding one 1,000-MW power plant every week in 2005; nearly all are coal . There is a sense that energy growth is out of control, with local provinces building unauthorized power plants as rapidly as possible to keep up with demand. ERI now foresees that electricity supply will come into balance with demand in 2007, a “boom-bust” investment cycles which is why we see mostly capital flight currently from China’s electricity sector.
China’s leaders have set aggressive national growth targets that are likely to keep China’s growth engine in overdrive for the foreseeable future. In 2003, Hu Jintao set a national target, calling for there to be three more Chinas, the size of today’s, by 2020. Hu also embarked on what are known as the “3 Transcendences”: (1) transcend old, resource wasteful technology, maximize recycling, and move to sustainable development; (2) transcend the traditional ways for great powers to emerge on the world stage (reject hegemony), and pursue peaceful ascendancy (3) transcend outmoded approaches of social control, job assignments, etc. and instead strengthen rule or law and build a harmonious, stable society.
The vast bulk of China’s current growth is locking in investments in mostly antiquated technologies that will pump emissions into the air for a generation or more. (The coal plants under construction, although relatively advanced at 36-38% efficiency, plus moving to supercritical at 42% efficiency, nevertheless are deepening reliance on high-carbon technologies.) China’s new energy technology investments are cleaner, but nowhere near what they could be. New energy technologies are on average 5.7 times less efficient than Japan’s, and 2.25 times less efficient than the US.
Our program has funded analysis in China that shows how to do this. The Chinese are striving to implement this strategy. But its hard.
China historically has made marked advanced in energy efficiency. This shows China’s energy intensity improvement; China successfully managed to quadruple its economy while only doubling its energy growth between 1980-2000.
This shows how China accomplished that feat; it invested heavily in energy efficiency. But note what’s been happening in recent years; China’s investment in energy efficiency has dropped by 2/3 since its peak in 1983. China’s historic ee gains occurred under command economy conditions
This year (2006), China will establish the Top-1000 Enterprises Energy-Efficiency Program, a program to reduce the energy consumption of China’s 1,000 most energy-intensive enterprises (including in the steel, cement, chemicals, pulp and paper, etc. industries). These enterprises currently consume a third of all China’s primary energy. The Top-1000 Program will be a centerpiece of the central government’s efforts to implement the 2010 20% energy intensity improvement target.
What is the solution, and are the Chinese doing anything about it? The solution of course is low-carbon technology development, including massively stepped up energy efficiency, and a shift to renewable energy. As I mentioned, our program supports policy development in all the main energy production and consumption sectors, and is working with China’s central, provincial and local governments to put policies in place in all these areas. We have over 80 projects underway in all areas. Given the time constraints, let me just mention a few things we’re doing in the TPO sector. Prior to 2000, China’s government had not considered the importance of vehicle fuel economy for oil security or public health benefits. CSEP launched the effort in that year and put together a high-level government steering council, with analysis fed to them by a strong domestic research team teamed with international experts who brought in best practice policies from the U.S., EU, and Japan. Fuel consumption standards were adopted for light-duty (M1) vehicles in 2004 Phase 1 standards taking effect in July 2005 Phase 2 standards slated to take effect in Jan. 2008 Relative to the Japanese standards, Chinese standards are tougher for heavier passenger cars The standards are up to 20% more stringent than US CAFÉ standards. 90% of the SUVs plying America’s roads will not be allowed on China’s streets starting in 2008. Three years ago, the program set out to create a viable alternative to car use in China's major cities. We convened a "mayor's forum on mass transit," and invited Enrique Penalosa, former mayor of Bogota, Columbia, who was the architect of that city's bus rapid transit system. This started a wave in China of municipal planning to develop BRT, which consists of dedicated-lane bus systems with buses moving station-to-station with subway efficiency but costing only 5% of subways. Now, 15 cities are actively planning BRT systems, and Beijing is already completing construction of a 16-kilometer corridor, with plans for 300 kilometers by 2010. Our long-term goal is to make BRT a national policy, replicated in all major cities. The Hewlett Foundation just approved funding for a new Sustainable Transportation NGO to provide technical outreach and support to China’s cities that are developing BRT systems, since the interest of many cities is skyrocketing.
There are signs that China's leaders are beginning to grasp the urgency of slowing energy growth, diversifying away from coal and oil, and investing in energy efficiency. The 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) calls for improving national energy efficiency 20 percent. This ambitious target would be the world's largest, and fastest, global warming pollution-reduction initiative. China is already beginning to implement this plan: In July 2004, China enacted vehicle fuel economy standards for passengers vehicles that are 20 percent more stringent than those in the United States, which could cut 60 million tons of global warming pollution and save nearly a half-billion barrels of oil by 2030. The law is being implemented in two phases: Beginning in 2008 90% of the SUVs plying US roads will not be legal for sale in China. The next step is to secure standards for heavy-duty vehicles (trucks and buses), that would roughly double the energy and carbon savings in 2030.
The Renewable Energy Law (effective January 1, 2006) stipulates 15% of China’s primary energy consumption be from renewables by 2020. This should launch about 120,000 megawatts of new renewable energy, including a $30 billion wind-energy market. Biomass and small hydro will also be main beneficiaries of the Law.
Our strategic goal is to help China implement policies to grow the volume of investment in renewable energy technologies, to help bring unit costs down. The strategy has been particularly successful in our wind concessions programs; our grants (in the $25-30K range to CRED) have now helped build over $1 billion in wind turbines in a dozen provinces. Another 800 MW announced on Monday; 600MW Jiangsu concession; 200 MW offshore by Three Gorges Company.
New efficiency standards for consumer appliances including refrigerators, air conditioners, lighting, washing machines, and TVs are on track to save 10 percent of all residential electricity in 2010, obviating the need for 36 large coal-fired power plants. Saves over 120 million tons CO2 in 2020.
Building code implementation pilots in six cities are progressing better than expected. When in the spotlight of Beijing, local officials “rise to the occasion”; the cities of Shanghai, Fuzhou, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chongqing are demonstrating the administrative procedures—including inspections and enforcement during all phases of construction—necessary to ensure compliance with advanced energy codes. China is in the midst of the largest building boom in human history. Two-thirds of all China’s commercial buildings were built in the last decade; China has built 85,000 sky-rise buildings every year for the last 15 years. None of these were built to the standards of a modern building energy code. The boom continues: between now and 2015, China expects to build 50% more buildings than it has right now. Buildings eat up one-third of China’s total energy. China’s Ministry of Construction has only six people working on building codes. So five years ago, we supported the development of a new Chinese NGO to provide staff to the ministry and develop state-of-the art energy building codes. The ministry has now adopted both new residential and commercial building codes spanning 14 provinces in Central and South China designed to cut 50% of the energy consumed in new buildings. The grantees are now working on implementation measures in five cities, intending to replicate an implementation model throughout the region. Codes in the central and southern region if fully implemented will remove 72 MMT C in 2020.
The key to commercialization policy is to tap the revenues of the large market players and require them to innovate, develop, and implement clean technology. China’s central government has targeted the utility sector for aggressive reform. The goal is to make it more profitable to save energy than to produce it. Grantees helped the State Council to establish a central regulatory commission overseeing power sector regulations and reforms, equivalent to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in the US. The goal of China’s State Electricity Regulatory Commission is to require utilities to invest in demand-side savings and renewable energy, and to earn greater profits than can be earned from traditional supply. Demand-side energy efficiency has potential to cut 100,000 MW installed capacity by 2020; this could cut carbon dioxide emissions by over 2.5 billion metric tons through 2020. Another achievement includes new emission reduction standards for coal-fired power plants that are being piloted in 4 provinces. Finally, ADB is joining with us to sponsor development of Energy Efficiency Power Plants, where ADB finances investment in energy saving technologies such as lighting, efficient appliances, efficient motors, etc., and helps a utility save the equivalent power as constructing a new coal plant. These efforts will demonstrate that energy efficiency is China ‘s cheapest, cleanest, and fastest energy resource.
An EPP is a set of DSM programs, financed with a long-term loan, and repaid by consumers through electricity prices and savings to the electricity system. The Efficiency Power Plant has other benefits compared with conventional supply plants: ァ The EPP improves reliability by reducing load on the transmission and distribution system; ァ The EPP reduces demand on the coal and other fuel delivery infrastructure; ァ The EPP reduces the environmental impacts of the power sector and eliminates the financial risk of increased pollution charges; and ァ Unlike a power plant, however, end-use efficiency produces savings from the beginning of program delivery. Jiangsu is currently implementing China’s first EPP, focused on installing efficient electric motors in the province’s industrial enterprises. Right now, we’re actually designing one for Guangzhou. Just how much it will save is still being analyzed. The approach to financing that the province is taking is significantly different than what was originally proposed, and we expect that, though it will capture cost-effective efficiency savings, they will not amount to as much as could be acquired through the use of a broad, tariff-based funding mechanism.
BACK TO DOUG This slide shows the task ahead in a nutshell ; The challenge is to get the institutions in place in China to facilitate clean energy technology commercialization. Enforcement of the policies will be the greatest challenge.