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©OECD/IEA2015
Paul Simons
Deputy Executive Director
Paris, 4 February 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015
The start of a new energy era?
 2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels
 Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016
 Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China
 Signals turn green ahead of key Paris climate summit
 Pledges of 150+ countries account for 90% of energy-related emissions
 Renewables capacity additions at a record-high of 130 GW in 2014
 Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global
subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014
 Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system
in the right direction?
© OECD/IEA 2015
Mtoe
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
Demand growth in Asia – the sequel
By 2040, India’s energy demand closes in on that of the United States,
even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average
European
Union
United
States
Japan Latin
America
Middle
East
Southeast
Asia
Africa China India
Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014-2040
© OECD/IEA 2015
but – for oil & gas – the gains are offset by the move to more complex fields
Policies spur innovation and tip the
balance towards low-carbon
Costs in 2040 for different energy sources/technologies, relative to 2014
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Solar PV Onshore
wind
Efficient industrial
heat production
Efficient
lighting
Upstream
oil and gas
Innovation reduces the costs of low-carbon technologies & energy efficiency,
© OECD/IEA 2015
A new balancing item in the oil market?
Change in production (2015-2020) of US tight oil for a range of 2020 oil prices
Tight oil has created more short-term supply flexibility, but there is no guarantee
that the adjustment mechanism in oil markets will be smooth
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
$40/bbl $50/bbl $60/bbl $70/bbl $80/bbl $90/bbl $100/bbl
mb/d
© OECD/IEA 2015
Diverging paths of OPEC
and Non-OPEC
Oil output change 2014-2040
Brazil and Canada are leading non-OPEC in output growth,
but cannot offset total non-OPEC decline
mb/d
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
Iraq
Brazil
Canada
Rest of Non-OPEC
Rest of OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2015
If oil prices stay lower for much longer:
what would it take, what would it mean?
 Much more resilient non-OPEC supply & higher output from a stable
Middle East could maintain downward pressure on oil prices
 Oil importers gain: each $1/bbl reduction is $15 billion off import bills;
major window of opportunity to press ahead with subsidy reform
 If lower prices persist for decades, reliance on Middle East oil gets back
to 1970s levels; risk of a sharp market rebound if investment falls short
 Reduction in revenues to key producers & boost to global oil demand
growth make a prolonged period of lower prices progressively less likely
© OECD/IEA 2015
Natural gas demand and supply in developing Asia
The big opportunities & uncertainties
for natural gas are in Asia
Developing Asia accounts for almost half of the rise in global gas demand & 75% of
the increase in imports, but gas faces strong competition from renewables & coal
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
Demand Production
bcm
Conventional
Unconventional
Additional
to 2040
2014
, 2014, 2014 & 2040, 2040
Imports
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy
demand
GDP
A new chapter in China’s growth story
Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China’s economy favouring
expansion of services, mean less energy is required to generate economic growth
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Energydemand(Mtoe)
20
40
60
GDP(trilliondollars,PPP)
Energy
demand
GDP
Total primary energy demand & GDP in ChinaEnergy demand in China
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energy
demand
GDP
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Energydemand(Mtoe)
20
40
60
GDP(trilliondollars,PPP)
© OECD/IEA 2015
India moving to the centre
of the world energy stage
Change in demand for selected fuels, 2014-2040
New infrastructure, an expanding middle class & 600 million new electricity
consumers mean a large rise in the energy required to fuel India’s development
Solar PV
0
500
1 000
1 500
(TWh)
Oil
-16
-8
0
8
16
24
(mb/d)
Coal
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
(Mtce)
China
India
United States
European Union
Africa
Middle East
Japan
India
China
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
United
States
Japan
European
Union
India
Southeast
Asia
Africa
European
Union
United States
© OECD/IEA 2015
Power is leading the transformation
of the energy system
Global electricity generation by source
Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global
generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source
3 000 12 000 15 000
TWh
Change
to 2040
2014
Renewables
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Other
renewables
Of which:
6 000 9 000
© OECD/IEA 2015
Efficiency measures on the rise,
but significant potential still exists
Share of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption
Energy efficiency policies are introduced in more countries and sectors;
they continue to slow demand growth but more can be done
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2014 2040
Industry
 Steam boilers
 Process heat
 Motors
Buildings
 Heating/Cooling
 Lighting/Appliances
Transport
 Cars
 Trucks
 Ships
© OECD/IEA 2015
The coverage of climate pledges
is impressive
Climate pledges for COP21 are consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C, with
investment needs of $13.5 trillion in low-carbon technologies & efficiency to 2030
Pledges submitted
Not submitted pledges
© OECD/IEA 2015
Climate pledges decouple power sector
emissions from electricity demand
World electricity generation
The share of low-carbon power generation grows to almost 45% in 2030 so that
power emissions remain flat, while electricity demand grows by more than 40%
10
20
30
40
Generation(thousandTWh)
and related CO2 emissions
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Emissions(Gt)
5
10
15
20
CO2 emissions
Electricity
generation
Electricity
generation
CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2015
A 2 °C pathway is still some
further efforts away
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Gt
Baseline
450 Scenario
17.9 Gt
A peak in emissions by around 2020 is possible using existing policies & technologies;
technology innovation and RD&D will be key to achieving the longer-term goal.
Energy efficiency
Fuel & technology
switching in end-uses
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Other
© OECD/IEA 2015
COP21: a historic milestone for the
global energy sector
 Sends a clear message that there is global engagement on the shift to low-
carbon energy systems, with 187 countries having submitted pledges and 150
world leaders coming to Paris to support the agreement.
 Strengthened global temperature goal “well below 2°C […] and to pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. To achieve this, Parties aim
to peak global emissions as soon as possible and make rapid reductions
thereafter.
 Each Party will submit a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC, i.e.
emissions reduction goal/actions) every five years. Implementation of NDCs will
be tracked and reviewed. Support for implementation of developing country
NDCs will be provided in finance, technology and capacity building.
 The Paris Agreement sets a framework enabling a below-2°C future, but success
will ultimately depend on countries’ actions through their successive NDCs.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Conclusions
 COP21 sends strong signal for a low-carbon transition – focus must
turn to implementation, tracking & building ambition
 Low prices bring gains to consumers, but can also sow the seeds
of future risks to energy security: no room for complacency
 India’s energy needs are huge: there is a strong shared interest
to support India’s push for clean & efficient technologies
 China’s transition to a more diversified & much less energy-intensive
model for growth re-shapes energy markets
 With looming energy security & environmental challenges,
international cooperation on energy has never been more vital
©OECD/IEA2015
www.worldenergyoutlook.org

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OECD Parliamentary Days 2016 - World Energy Outlook

  • 1. ©OECD/IEA2015 Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director Paris, 4 February 2016
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2015 The start of a new energy era?  2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels  Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016  Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China  Signals turn green ahead of key Paris climate summit  Pledges of 150+ countries account for 90% of energy-related emissions  Renewables capacity additions at a record-high of 130 GW in 2014  Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014  Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system in the right direction?
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2015 Mtoe -300 0 300 600 900 1 200 Demand growth in Asia – the sequel By 2040, India’s energy demand closes in on that of the United States, even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average European Union United States Japan Latin America Middle East Southeast Asia Africa China India Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014-2040
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2015 but – for oil & gas – the gains are offset by the move to more complex fields Policies spur innovation and tip the balance towards low-carbon Costs in 2040 for different energy sources/technologies, relative to 2014 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Solar PV Onshore wind Efficient industrial heat production Efficient lighting Upstream oil and gas Innovation reduces the costs of low-carbon technologies & energy efficiency,
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2015 A new balancing item in the oil market? Change in production (2015-2020) of US tight oil for a range of 2020 oil prices Tight oil has created more short-term supply flexibility, but there is no guarantee that the adjustment mechanism in oil markets will be smooth -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 $40/bbl $50/bbl $60/bbl $70/bbl $80/bbl $90/bbl $100/bbl mb/d
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2015 Diverging paths of OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil output change 2014-2040 Brazil and Canada are leading non-OPEC in output growth, but cannot offset total non-OPEC decline mb/d -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Iraq Brazil Canada Rest of Non-OPEC Rest of OPEC
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2015 If oil prices stay lower for much longer: what would it take, what would it mean?  Much more resilient non-OPEC supply & higher output from a stable Middle East could maintain downward pressure on oil prices  Oil importers gain: each $1/bbl reduction is $15 billion off import bills; major window of opportunity to press ahead with subsidy reform  If lower prices persist for decades, reliance on Middle East oil gets back to 1970s levels; risk of a sharp market rebound if investment falls short  Reduction in revenues to key producers & boost to global oil demand growth make a prolonged period of lower prices progressively less likely
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2015 Natural gas demand and supply in developing Asia The big opportunities & uncertainties for natural gas are in Asia Developing Asia accounts for almost half of the rise in global gas demand & 75% of the increase in imports, but gas faces strong competition from renewables & coal 300 600 900 1 200 1 500 Demand Production bcm Conventional Unconventional Additional to 2040 2014 , 2014, 2014 & 2040, 2040 Imports
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2015 Energy demand GDP A new chapter in China’s growth story Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China’s economy favouring expansion of services, mean less energy is required to generate economic growth 3 000 6 000 9 000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Energydemand(Mtoe) 20 40 60 GDP(trilliondollars,PPP) Energy demand GDP Total primary energy demand & GDP in ChinaEnergy demand in China 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy demand GDP 3 000 6 000 9 000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Energydemand(Mtoe) 20 40 60 GDP(trilliondollars,PPP)
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2015 India moving to the centre of the world energy stage Change in demand for selected fuels, 2014-2040 New infrastructure, an expanding middle class & 600 million new electricity consumers mean a large rise in the energy required to fuel India’s development Solar PV 0 500 1 000 1 500 (TWh) Oil -16 -8 0 8 16 24 (mb/d) Coal -1 000 -500 0 500 1 000 1 500 (Mtce) China India United States European Union Africa Middle East Japan India China Africa Middle East Southeast Asia United States Japan European Union India Southeast Asia Africa European Union United States
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2015 Power is leading the transformation of the energy system Global electricity generation by source Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source 3 000 12 000 15 000 TWh Change to 2040 2014 Renewables Coal Gas Nuclear Oil Hydro Wind Solar Other renewables Of which: 6 000 9 000
  • 12. © OECD/IEA 2015 Efficiency measures on the rise, but significant potential still exists Share of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption Energy efficiency policies are introduced in more countries and sectors; they continue to slow demand growth but more can be done 10% 20% 30% 40% 2005 2014 2040 Industry  Steam boilers  Process heat  Motors Buildings  Heating/Cooling  Lighting/Appliances Transport  Cars  Trucks  Ships
  • 13. © OECD/IEA 2015 The coverage of climate pledges is impressive Climate pledges for COP21 are consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C, with investment needs of $13.5 trillion in low-carbon technologies & efficiency to 2030 Pledges submitted Not submitted pledges
  • 14. © OECD/IEA 2015 Climate pledges decouple power sector emissions from electricity demand World electricity generation The share of low-carbon power generation grows to almost 45% in 2030 so that power emissions remain flat, while electricity demand grows by more than 40% 10 20 30 40 Generation(thousandTWh) and related CO2 emissions 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Emissions(Gt) 5 10 15 20 CO2 emissions Electricity generation Electricity generation CO2 emissions
  • 15. © OECD/IEA 2015 A 2 °C pathway is still some further efforts away 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Gt Baseline 450 Scenario 17.9 Gt A peak in emissions by around 2020 is possible using existing policies & technologies; technology innovation and RD&D will be key to achieving the longer-term goal. Energy efficiency Fuel & technology switching in end-uses Renewables Nuclear CCS Other
  • 16. © OECD/IEA 2015 COP21: a historic milestone for the global energy sector  Sends a clear message that there is global engagement on the shift to low- carbon energy systems, with 187 countries having submitted pledges and 150 world leaders coming to Paris to support the agreement.  Strengthened global temperature goal “well below 2°C […] and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. To achieve this, Parties aim to peak global emissions as soon as possible and make rapid reductions thereafter.  Each Party will submit a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC, i.e. emissions reduction goal/actions) every five years. Implementation of NDCs will be tracked and reviewed. Support for implementation of developing country NDCs will be provided in finance, technology and capacity building.  The Paris Agreement sets a framework enabling a below-2°C future, but success will ultimately depend on countries’ actions through their successive NDCs.
  • 17. © OECD/IEA 2015 Conclusions  COP21 sends strong signal for a low-carbon transition – focus must turn to implementation, tracking & building ambition  Low prices bring gains to consumers, but can also sow the seeds of future risks to energy security: no room for complacency  India’s energy needs are huge: there is a strong shared interest to support India’s push for clean & efficient technologies  China’s transition to a more diversified & much less energy-intensive model for growth re-shapes energy markets  With looming energy security & environmental challenges, international cooperation on energy has never been more vital