This document outlines the goals, objectives, and principles of an RDF Quantification exercise organized by EPSA in collaboration with FMOH. The goals are to conduct evidence-based quantification and supply planning for health commodities managed through RDF for the 2014 EBY period. The objectives include training participants on quantification processes, identifying required data sources, and supporting health facilities in developing realistic forecasts. The document reviews quantification definitions, principles, steps including data collection, forecasting methodologies like consumption-based, and signs of good versus poor quantification. Forecasting methodologies discussed include consumption-based, morbidity-based, adjusted consumption, and service-level projection.
Presented by Bill Dempster and Gerry Jeffcott of 360 Public Affairs.
The presentation covers the following topics:
- An overview of Canada’s health technology assessment (HTA) system, including the national and provincial processes, which evaluate individual medications or therapeutic classes to inform funding decisions by governments and private payers
- How these systems have evolved to date to include patients’ experiences
- Attendees will also explore, together, how the HTA system could be improved to become more patient-centered in order to better meet the needs, expectations and values of patients, looking at a number of key questions, including:
- How and at what stage should patients be involved in HTA processes?
- What are the criteria for successful involvement of patients in HTA processes?
- How should patients’ perspectives be evaluated and factored into the formulary recommendations and, ultimately, coverage decisions?
- What are some of the current obstacles/barriers for successful patient involvement and what are the strategies/approaches to address them?
All patients are different, and data collected during product development or Randomised Clinical Trials (RCT) does not always paint the full picture of everyday patients. RWE insights complement the manufacturing process and RCT findings, adding more value and providing real-world impact. While together data from the manufacturing process and RWD paint a fuller picture.
Due to the limitations of the study design, data from the manufacturing process and RCTs are inadequate for demonstrating an intervention’s long-term safety and effectiveness. Moreover, it is possible to compare multiple product or interventions in RWE.
Assignment ObjectivesSummarize the purpose of a performance impro.pdfrohit219406
Assignment Objectives:
Summarize the purpose of a performance improvement plan.
Summarize and organize the steps needed in the creation of a performance improvement plan.
Purpose: It is important to understand the performance improvement plan and how it works. You
will all work in a setting, whether it be a hospital or a physician’s office managed by a hospital,
where you will get audited and have certain standards to meet. It is important to be prepared and
understand this information now.
Assignment Description: When dealing with a performance improvement plan, there are many
things to consider. I would like for you to write a report detailing how a performance
improvement plan is written. Start with what the criteria is and how it is determined. Move on to
the action plans and then end with the formal report.
Parameters: This paper needs to be at least 1,000 words in length. You need to have at least 3
sources. This paper needs to be in APA format.
The paper will be graded by the following rubric:
Essay contains correct subject matter and covers the objectives, 50
Proper format – introduction, body, and conclusion, 15
Length – 1,000 words at least, 5
APA Style and format, 5
Used proper number of resources, 15
Grammar, spelling, and punctuation, 10
Solution
Performance Improvement Plan :
Following structure will be followed for developing performance Improvement Plan .
Mission Statement:
To offer the best in patient care and to endorse community health.
Vision:
To be a leading hospital provider in the located area.
Service superiority:
Expecting and exceeding expectations of all we dish up: our patients and their folks, providers,
staff, students, volunteers and other partners.
Dynamic work surroundings
Fostering an setting where all are valued and respected, and fervor and opportunities for expert
growth are encouraged.
Building on centers of medical and organizational superiority Doing the right thing by centering
on evidence based patient- and family -centered mind, a commitment to security, the importance
of knowledge and our mission, vision and values.
Innovation and teamwork Building/fostering corporation to enhance care, meet society need and
foresee the demands of a active healthcare environment.
Financial and resource stewardship :
Keeping clinic strong through the accountable use of financial and human resource.
PURPOSE
The principle of the Hospital performance Improvement Plan is to provide a structure for a
collaboratively planned, systematic and company -wide approach to improving organizational
routine. It is designed to provide an included and comprehensive program that will scrutinize,
assess and improve the superiority of patient care delivered at this flair.
Promise to performance :
The core of the hospital performance Improvement Program is that it tackle quality in all areas
and at all levels all through the organization.
For Hospital to succeed in the swiftly changing and increasingly spirited healthcare atmosphere
in t.
Presented by Bill Dempster and Gerry Jeffcott of 360 Public Affairs.
The presentation covers the following topics:
- An overview of Canada’s health technology assessment (HTA) system, including the national and provincial processes, which evaluate individual medications or therapeutic classes to inform funding decisions by governments and private payers
- How these systems have evolved to date to include patients’ experiences
- Attendees will also explore, together, how the HTA system could be improved to become more patient-centered in order to better meet the needs, expectations and values of patients, looking at a number of key questions, including:
- How and at what stage should patients be involved in HTA processes?
- What are the criteria for successful involvement of patients in HTA processes?
- How should patients’ perspectives be evaluated and factored into the formulary recommendations and, ultimately, coverage decisions?
- What are some of the current obstacles/barriers for successful patient involvement and what are the strategies/approaches to address them?
All patients are different, and data collected during product development or Randomised Clinical Trials (RCT) does not always paint the full picture of everyday patients. RWE insights complement the manufacturing process and RCT findings, adding more value and providing real-world impact. While together data from the manufacturing process and RWD paint a fuller picture.
Due to the limitations of the study design, data from the manufacturing process and RCTs are inadequate for demonstrating an intervention’s long-term safety and effectiveness. Moreover, it is possible to compare multiple product or interventions in RWE.
Assignment ObjectivesSummarize the purpose of a performance impro.pdfrohit219406
Assignment Objectives:
Summarize the purpose of a performance improvement plan.
Summarize and organize the steps needed in the creation of a performance improvement plan.
Purpose: It is important to understand the performance improvement plan and how it works. You
will all work in a setting, whether it be a hospital or a physician’s office managed by a hospital,
where you will get audited and have certain standards to meet. It is important to be prepared and
understand this information now.
Assignment Description: When dealing with a performance improvement plan, there are many
things to consider. I would like for you to write a report detailing how a performance
improvement plan is written. Start with what the criteria is and how it is determined. Move on to
the action plans and then end with the formal report.
Parameters: This paper needs to be at least 1,000 words in length. You need to have at least 3
sources. This paper needs to be in APA format.
The paper will be graded by the following rubric:
Essay contains correct subject matter and covers the objectives, 50
Proper format – introduction, body, and conclusion, 15
Length – 1,000 words at least, 5
APA Style and format, 5
Used proper number of resources, 15
Grammar, spelling, and punctuation, 10
Solution
Performance Improvement Plan :
Following structure will be followed for developing performance Improvement Plan .
Mission Statement:
To offer the best in patient care and to endorse community health.
Vision:
To be a leading hospital provider in the located area.
Service superiority:
Expecting and exceeding expectations of all we dish up: our patients and their folks, providers,
staff, students, volunteers and other partners.
Dynamic work surroundings
Fostering an setting where all are valued and respected, and fervor and opportunities for expert
growth are encouraged.
Building on centers of medical and organizational superiority Doing the right thing by centering
on evidence based patient- and family -centered mind, a commitment to security, the importance
of knowledge and our mission, vision and values.
Innovation and teamwork Building/fostering corporation to enhance care, meet society need and
foresee the demands of a active healthcare environment.
Financial and resource stewardship :
Keeping clinic strong through the accountable use of financial and human resource.
PURPOSE
The principle of the Hospital performance Improvement Plan is to provide a structure for a
collaboratively planned, systematic and company -wide approach to improving organizational
routine. It is designed to provide an included and comprehensive program that will scrutinize,
assess and improve the superiority of patient care delivered at this flair.
Promise to performance :
The core of the hospital performance Improvement Program is that it tackle quality in all areas
and at all levels all through the organization.
For Hospital to succeed in the swiftly changing and increasingly spirited healthcare atmosphere
in t.
As a doctorally prepared nurse, you are writing a Continuous Qua.docxrossskuddershamus
As a doctorally prepared nurse, you are writing a Continuous Quality Improvement project plan on
Reducing readmission/hospitalization rates for patients with Heart Failure
;
1.
Describe how the Quality program is measured, data is collected, monitored, and analyzed.
2.
Determine performance measures, and develop indicators to measure performance, core measures, etc.
3.
Discuss a data collection plan including data collection methods such as chart review, etc. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA) policies must be followed.
4.
Consider following structure, process, outcomes, and patients’ experience measures. You must use nationally recognized and standardized measures if possible. See the
HCQA Health Plan Employer Data and Information Set (HEDIS) measures
a tool which lists inpatient and ambulatory performance measures in health care.
Document this assignment in 6 pages document and include 5 References.
.
The Health Finance and Governance (HFG) Project organized a multi-country workshop to support policymakers from public health and finance agencies in developing concrete action plans for mobilizing domestic resources for health. This presentation on the HFG toolkit addresses gaps in the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Finance relationship. The toolkit presents a set of strategies, self assessment methodologies and performance management processes to help the MOH better manage their own resources and to help foster more effective coordination between the MOH and the MOF.
Don't miss our upcoming webinars! Subscribe today.
In this webinar:
1) Attendees will be provided with an overview of the drug approval and reimbursement processes.
2) People will be taken through a review of the updated CADTH patient group/clinician input processes.
3) Everyone will have a better understanding of how the processes are connected and flow into one another.
View the YouTube video here: https://youtu.be/-Bv9DZvSITk
Follow CCSN on social media:
Twitter - https://twitter.com/survivornetca
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/CanadianSurvivorNet
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/survivornet_ca/
Pinterest - https://www.pinterest.com/survivornetwork
Presentation by Rich Pollack, VP and Chief Information Officer, VCU Health, at the marcus evans National Healthcare CIO Summit held in Pasadena, CA March 13-14 2017
The way healthcare services are now planned, monitored and evaluated has considerably changed in the last decade. Many healthcare organizations have now moved from Activity-Based M&E(ie, what are we really doing?) to Performance-Based M&E which focuses on the overall results (ie what have we achieved?).
Therefore the focus now is on the Results and consequences of actions and implementations, rather than on the inputs (treatment, time, human resources) provided.
In Secondary Healthcare Management for instance, this is called Results-Based Management (RBM) and Performance-Based M&E play a vital role in Results-Based Management.
Real-World Data and Real-World Evidence Webinar
Panelists
Tara Cowling, Medlior
Laurie Lambert, CADTH
Craig Campbell, London Health Sciences
Sandra Anderson, Innomar Strategies
Brad Alyward, Canadian Organization for Rare Disorders
Durhane Wong-Rieger, Canadian Organization for Rare Disorders
Transforming Post-Acute Care with IMPACTCitiusTech
On October 6, 2014, a bipartisan bill on Improving Medicare Post-Acute Care Transformation (IMPACT) was signed. The IMPACT Act seeks to standardize assessments for vital care issues across the gamut of post-acute care (PAC) providers and builds a framework to ensure that the delivered care is mindful of the patient needs; thereby eliminating the current silo-focused approach to quality measurement and resource utilization.
As a doctorally prepared nurse, you are writing a Continuous Qua.docxrossskuddershamus
As a doctorally prepared nurse, you are writing a Continuous Quality Improvement project plan on
Reducing readmission/hospitalization rates for patients with Heart Failure
;
1.
Describe how the Quality program is measured, data is collected, monitored, and analyzed.
2.
Determine performance measures, and develop indicators to measure performance, core measures, etc.
3.
Discuss a data collection plan including data collection methods such as chart review, etc. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA) policies must be followed.
4.
Consider following structure, process, outcomes, and patients’ experience measures. You must use nationally recognized and standardized measures if possible. See the
HCQA Health Plan Employer Data and Information Set (HEDIS) measures
a tool which lists inpatient and ambulatory performance measures in health care.
Document this assignment in 6 pages document and include 5 References.
.
The Health Finance and Governance (HFG) Project organized a multi-country workshop to support policymakers from public health and finance agencies in developing concrete action plans for mobilizing domestic resources for health. This presentation on the HFG toolkit addresses gaps in the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Finance relationship. The toolkit presents a set of strategies, self assessment methodologies and performance management processes to help the MOH better manage their own resources and to help foster more effective coordination between the MOH and the MOF.
Don't miss our upcoming webinars! Subscribe today.
In this webinar:
1) Attendees will be provided with an overview of the drug approval and reimbursement processes.
2) People will be taken through a review of the updated CADTH patient group/clinician input processes.
3) Everyone will have a better understanding of how the processes are connected and flow into one another.
View the YouTube video here: https://youtu.be/-Bv9DZvSITk
Follow CCSN on social media:
Twitter - https://twitter.com/survivornetca
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/CanadianSurvivorNet
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/survivornet_ca/
Pinterest - https://www.pinterest.com/survivornetwork
Presentation by Rich Pollack, VP and Chief Information Officer, VCU Health, at the marcus evans National Healthcare CIO Summit held in Pasadena, CA March 13-14 2017
The way healthcare services are now planned, monitored and evaluated has considerably changed in the last decade. Many healthcare organizations have now moved from Activity-Based M&E(ie, what are we really doing?) to Performance-Based M&E which focuses on the overall results (ie what have we achieved?).
Therefore the focus now is on the Results and consequences of actions and implementations, rather than on the inputs (treatment, time, human resources) provided.
In Secondary Healthcare Management for instance, this is called Results-Based Management (RBM) and Performance-Based M&E play a vital role in Results-Based Management.
Real-World Data and Real-World Evidence Webinar
Panelists
Tara Cowling, Medlior
Laurie Lambert, CADTH
Craig Campbell, London Health Sciences
Sandra Anderson, Innomar Strategies
Brad Alyward, Canadian Organization for Rare Disorders
Durhane Wong-Rieger, Canadian Organization for Rare Disorders
Transforming Post-Acute Care with IMPACTCitiusTech
On October 6, 2014, a bipartisan bill on Improving Medicare Post-Acute Care Transformation (IMPACT) was signed. The IMPACT Act seeks to standardize assessments for vital care issues across the gamut of post-acute care (PAC) providers and builds a framework to ensure that the delivered care is mindful of the patient needs; thereby eliminating the current silo-focused approach to quality measurement and resource utilization.
StarCompliance is a leading firm specializing in the recovery of stolen cryptocurrency. Our comprehensive services are designed to assist individuals and organizations in navigating the complex process of fraud reporting, investigation, and fund recovery. We combine cutting-edge technology with expert legal support to provide a robust solution for victims of crypto theft.
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Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation - Final Version - 5.23...John Andrews
SlideShare Description for "Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation"
Title: Chatty Kathy: Enhancing Physical Activity Among Older Adults
Description:
Discover how Chatty Kathy, an innovative project developed at the UNC Bootcamp, aims to tackle the challenge of low physical activity among older adults. Our AI-driven solution uses peer interaction to boost and sustain exercise levels, significantly improving health outcomes. This presentation covers our problem statement, the rationale behind Chatty Kathy, synthetic data and persona creation, model performance metrics, a visual demonstration of the project, and potential future developments. Join us for an insightful Q&A session to explore the potential of this groundbreaking project.
Project Team: Jay Requarth, Jana Avery, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin & Mat Nicholas
As Europe's leading economic powerhouse and the fourth-largest hashtag#economy globally, Germany stands at the forefront of innovation and industrial might. Renowned for its precision engineering and high-tech sectors, Germany's economic structure is heavily supported by a robust service industry, accounting for approximately 68% of its GDP. This economic clout and strategic geopolitical stance position Germany as a focal point in the global cyber threat landscape.
In the face of escalating global tensions, particularly those emanating from geopolitical disputes with nations like hashtag#Russia and hashtag#China, hashtag#Germany has witnessed a significant uptick in targeted cyber operations. Our analysis indicates a marked increase in hashtag#cyberattack sophistication aimed at critical infrastructure and key industrial sectors. These attacks range from ransomware campaigns to hashtag#AdvancedPersistentThreats (hashtag#APTs), threatening national security and business integrity.
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Our comprehensive report delves into these challenges, using a blend of open-source and proprietary data collection techniques. By monitoring activity on critical networks and analyzing attack patterns, our team provides a detailed overview of the threats facing German entities.
This report aims to equip stakeholders across public and private sectors with the knowledge to enhance their defensive strategies, reduce exposure to cyber risks, and reinforce Germany's resilience against cyber threats.
RDF Quantification-Orientation material for 2014.pptx
1. RDF Quantification for 2014 EFY Organized by
EPSA in collaboration FMOH
December 17-18, 2020
J Hotel Adama
2. Goals and objectives
Goals:
• Preparation for quantification and supply planning(2014EBY) for Health
commodity managed through RDF.
• Evidence based, professional and reliable forecast of medicines, laboratory
reagents and medical supplies that drive procurement and financial management.
• To Plan the over all 2014 EBY quantification exercise from upstream to
downstream
3. Objectives: At the end of this Orientation participants will be able to
Explain principles and processes of quantification
and support HFs in their hubs to develop realistic
forecast in 2014EBY
Identify required data and their respective sources
for quantification and support HFs
Train, mentor and supervise HFs on processes of
data collection, organization, analysis, interpretation
validation and triangulation.
Support HFs on approaches of making
assumptions when quantifying needs in the
absence of certain data
4. Objectives ….
Support HFs how to work through DTC that involves
various health departments regarding their future
medicines, diagnostics and medical supplies requirements.
Support Health facilities on reconciliation of forecasts
with available budget; Undertake budget gap analysis
and applications of VEN, ABC analyses or other suitable
techniques.
Be a change agent by instituting strong forecasting and
supply planning in hospitals to achieve HSTP target of 100%
availability and reduction of expiry below 2%
4
5. Objectives …..
Strengthen systems for quantification of medicines,
Laboratory reagents and medical supplies
Enriching EPSA’s pharmaceuticals’ procurement list
for EFY2014 quantification exercise
Identify challenges, opportunities and possible
improvements around quantification process in HFs
Monitor and evaluate forecast and supply plan of
essential medicines, lab reagents and supplies
5
7. Content
Quantification Definition
The Goal, Scope and rationale for Quantification
Steps in Quantification
Future Planned activity under quantification
Signs of good and poor Quantification
8. What is Quantification?
• Quantification: is the process of estimating the quantity and cost of the
products required for a specific health program (or service) during a specific
period and determining when the products should be procured and distributed
to ensure an uninterrupted supply.
• Quantification is not a one-time, annual exercise that ends when the final
quantities and costs of the pharmaceuticals have been determined. It is an
iterative process with reviews and updates required year-round
• Quantification is a critical supply chain activity that links information on
services and pharmaceuticals from the facility level with program policies and
plans at the national level
9. Cont.…
Has 2 parts:
• Forecasting - estimating quantity required of each product to meet
demand for the forecast period
• Supply planning - adjusting quantities forecasted to determine
quantities to procure and time of delivery of the products
10. Goal for Quantification
• The ultimate goal of quantifying pharmaceutical requirement is to
ensure that appropriate medicines are available sustainably to treat,
promote and maintain the rational and economic use of medicines.
That means quantification:-
• Reduces stock out of products at different levels hence increases availability.
• Avoid overstock of products hence minimizes wastage rate.
• Promote rational use of pharmaceutical
• To reconcile the need of pharmaceutical and the available budget
• Ultimately satisfy the customers with limited budget sources
11. Rationale for Quantification
Eliminate stock out of health commodities
National program expansion
New guidelines, interventions, new programs
Change in list of medicines, dosage, and dosage forms
Prioritize the most critical requirements
Plan, mobilize and secure financial resources
Guide timely, appropriate supply plans and procurement
12. Scope of the Quantification
• The quantification is national and includes all
pharmaceuticals (medicines, Medical Supplies, Laboratory
Products and routine Medical Equipment’s) that are included
in EPSA’s procurement list and are availed through RDF.
14. Steps in Quantification…
1. Preparation
Assemble a quantification team
Describe the program (program performance, policies & strategic plans)
Define the purpose & scope of the quantification exercise (products, timing)
Collect required data (for forecasting and supply planning)
15. Assemble a quantification team –
• During the preparatory phase, the hub quantification
team will do the following activities:
• Establish quantification team at hub level, Composed of Hub manager,
QTFOs, WIMC, WIMO LabOs, RHBs and/or ZHDs and partners.
• Collect, organize and analyses the following data
• Hub issue data
• Facility level issue data (from dagu sites, if possible)
• Hub and facility based order fill rate or requested Vs issued data
• Health facility request
16. Cont..
During the preparatory phase, the central quantification team
will do the following activities
• Revise the list of pharmaceuticals that will be included in the forecast by
considering the agency’s procurement list, commodities that are supplied in
health program, less essential items, strength duplications and other
considerations.
• Revise the unit price of all commodities and verify the final price list together
with Tender Management Directorate(By assessing the market)
• Prepare a sample size for hub support
• Prepare estimated budget need for site support and communicate with
management to mobilize the needed budget
• Together with FMOH, give orientation to federal hospitals and other high load
referral hospitals with regard to RDF quantification. DSM coordinators of the
selected will participate in the orientation and exercise on forecasting of RDF
commodities by using their real data during the orientation.
17. Cont…
•Collect, organize and analyses the following data
• Past three years hub issue data
• Past three years hub based and also national forecast
• Past three years procurement data
• Facility level issue data (from dagu sites, if possible)
• Hub and facility based order fill rate or requested Vs
issued data
• Price trend over the past five years
•Prepare a workshop and discuss the overall process
of the quantification with hubs and provide an
agreed time plan.
18. B) Describe the program
• current status, and performance of the program for which the
pharmaceuticals/ commodities are being quantified.
• a review of program goals, strategies, and priorities, and any
expansion plans or change in policies that may significantly
influence uptake of services and demand for commodities
19. C) Purpose & Scope of the Quantification
To provide data on specific commodity requirements and costs for the government’s
annual budget allocations
To advocate for resource mobilization for commodity procurement
To optimize existing budgets based on priority health problems to be treated
and the most cost-effective treatment approaches.
National/ Specific health facility
Time Period
20. •Different types of data and information will be
required at each step in the quantification
•The data and information may be collected through
•Interviews,
• Consultative meetings with key stakeholders
•Through existing reports (HMIS and LMIS) and
• Direct data collection at health facilities.
• Reviewing of different documents
D) Collect required data
21. 1. Data necessary for forecasting includes:
Logistic data Morbidity data Services data
Facility level
Consumption data for
each pharmaceutical
Hub level issue data
Days out of stock per
product for the defined
period
Wastage information
Number of specific
diseases diagnosed or
treated in the health
facility
Treatment and test
options
Service expansion plan
or national targets
Lab test methodologies
Annual attrition or
migration rate
number of visits,
number of services
provided,
lab tests conducted,
treatment episodes,
number of patients on
treatment
List of working lab
equipment and usage
rates
22. 2. Data for Supply Planning
Data Needed Product information Supplier information Procurement information Distribution information
.The monthly forecasted
consumption
.National- or program-level stock
on hand
.Expiration dates of products in
stock
.Quantity on order: any
shipment quantities of
product(s) already on order, not
yet received
.Procurement lead time(s)
.Established shipment intervals
and current shipment delivery
schedule
.Established national- or
program-level maximum and
minimum stock levels
.Registration
status,
prequalification
status if
applicable
.Verify whether all
products are on
the National
Essential
Medicines List
.specific product
characteristics
(formulations,
dosages, number
of units per pack
size, unit cost, and
others)
.Supplier prices
.Supplier
packaging
information
.Supplier lead
times
.Shipping and
handling costs
.Procurement
mechanisms
(e.g.,
competitive
international
bidding/tender
ing, restrictive)
• Shipment
modalities
(air, sea,
land etc)
.In-country storage
and distribution
costs (if
applicable)
.In-country
sampling/quality
testing costs
• Customs
clearance
23. 2) Forecasting
Forecasting, the second step in the quantification process
Uses the data collected during the preparation step to estimate the quantity of each
product that will be used during each year of the quantification.
These quantities are the basis for calculating the total commodity requirements in the
supply planning step.
The forecasting step in a quantification exercise is a four-part process
Organize, analyze, and adjust the data.
Build and obtain consensus on the forecasting assumptions.
Calculate the forecasted consumption for each product.
Compare and reconcile results of different forecasts
24. Hub teams activities during the forecasting phase
• Select health facilities that will be supported based on the selection
criteria and list for which sites their result will be extrapolated.
• Disseminate the forecasting tool to sampled health facilities under
catchment
• Provide intensive support for selected sample health facilities
25. Cont..
• Aggregate the forecast result of supported health facilities
as per the Quantification tool
• Analyze the aggregated forecast and send the final hub
based forecast to central team on the agreed timeline
26. , Central team activities during the forecasting phase
Provide intensive support to hubs
Aggregate and analyses the hubs forecast by
comparing with previous years forecast, past three
years adjusted issue data, request Vs issue
Prepare a validation workshop and agree with hubs
on the three years forecast result
27. 3) Supply Planning
used to estimate the total pharmaceuticals requirements and costs to be procured
To calculate this estimate,
start with the forecasted consumption for each product from the forecasting step;
existing stock on hand;
any quantities of product already on order, but not yet received;
the established maximum and minimum stock levels
supplier lead times and
buffer stock
Supply planning process
Organize and analyze data.
Build supply planning assumptions.
Estimate total commodity requirements.
Develop supply plan.
Compare costs to available funding.
28. Organize and analyze data
Product related data Procurement
information
Distribution
information
Stock status
specific product
characteristics
(formulations,
dosages, shelf life,
temperature
requirements,
number of units per
pack size, unit cost,
and others)
.procurement
mechanisms (e.g.,
competitive
international
bidding/tendering,
restrictive)
.Shipment modalities
(air, sea, land etc)
.In-country storage
and distribution costs
(if applicable)
.In-country
sampling/quality
testing costs
.Customs clearance
fees
SOH, Quantity on order
29. Build the Supply Planning Assumptions
Assumptions about national and facility stock levels (stock on hand),
any quantities that have been ordered but not yet received (quantity on
order), and any products that will expire before they are used.
.
30. Estimate the Total Commodity Requirements and
Costs
The estimate of the total commodity requirements for the forecast period is
determined by:-
Calculating the additional quantities of product needed to cover procurement lead
times and buffer stocks, and then subtracting the quantity of each product already in
stock.
31. Compare Available Budget to Total Commodity Costs
The final decision on the quantities to procure will be determined by the amount of
budget available for procurement of products.
Where sufficient budget is available, the final quantity to procure of each drug will be
the same as the quantity to order as a result of the quantification.
In situations of non-full supply, where it is not possible to mobilize additional
resources to procure the full quantities of products required, the forecasted quantities
of products expected to be dispensed will need to be reduced
32. Using the results of the quantification
• Through the presentation of the quantification results to policymakers, program
managers, procurement managers, funders, and supply chain managers, the
following decisions and actions can be facilitated:
Program planning and budgeting decisions
Informing procurement actions on which products to procure, how much to procure, and
when to procure
Adjusting timing of procurements and shipment delivery schedules to ensure continuous
supply while avoiding stock outs and overstocking
33. Signs of Good Quantification
Rational use of medicines
Fewer expired commodities
Rational adjustment to budgetary constraints
Satisfied clients
Consistent availability of supplies (no stock-outs or under-stocking)
No overstocking
Easy management of stock
34. Signs of Poor Quantification
Chronic and widespread shortages
Surpluses of quantified health commodities
Irrational adjustment to budgetary constraints
Suppression or distortion of demand
Poor cost-effectiveness
Irrational & ineffective use of medicines
35. Activity
Can you relate to any of the symptoms of poor quantification
to RDF Pharmaceuticals ?
Point out the three most important signs
What could be done to prevent the three pointed out signs of poor
quantification?
37. Session Objectives
At the end of this session, the participants will be able to:-
• Describe the various forecasting methods
• Describe the uses, data needs, and limitations of each forecasting
method
• Identify the appropriate method of forecasting according to the
information available
• Describe commonly used logistics terminologies
38. Types of Data for Forecasting
1. Morbidity data – estimated incidence or prevalence rates of health
conditions occurring within a defined population group
• Used to estimate the number of cases expected during the
quantification period
• Forecasting with this data typically tends to over-estimate
pharmaceutical demand
39. Cont..
2.Consumption data – Quantities used, losses and adjustments to
inventory, and the stock on hand at the various levels of the in-country
supply chain
3. Demographic or Population data - Population growth and
demographic trends
4. Service Statistics data - Number of service delivery sites, the volume
of services or number of patients per site, and the type of service
received
41. Consumption-based quantification
• The consumption (or Logistics) based method uses historical data on the use of health
commodities.
• Past consumption trends may be useful in forecasting Stock-out periods must be factored in
• In the consumption method, a list of all health commodities to be procured is prepared, and
the most accurate inventory records of past consumption are used to calculate the quantities
needed for each product.
42. Consumption Method: Data needs
• Reliable consumption data
• Estimation of time out of stock
• Estimations of wastage (losses caused by expiry, pilferage, damage)
• Used in established supply systems e.g. for long term therapy continuing
patients
• Records of supplier lead times
• Projected medicine costs
43. Steps in the Consumption-Based Quantification Method
Step 1: Prepare a list of health commodities to be quantified..
• Should be sorted into the order that will best facilitate data collection
Step 2. Determine the period of time to be reviewed for consumption.
• For 6 month procurement-12 month review
• 6-12 months are usually recommended
• In case of seasonality, 12 month
• 3 months reviewed reflect if only steady state of consumption for the entire year.
44. Cont..
Step 3. Enter consumption data for each commodity.
For each item on the list, enter the following:
• Quantity consumed for each
• Days out of stock
• Likely source of data;
• Stock records and distribution reports from a central distribution point
• Stock records and reports from regional or district warehouses
• Invoices from suppliers
• Dispensing records from health facilities
• If possible, collect price at this steps
45. Cont..
Step 4. Calculate the consumption of drugs required
• Stock record card: Recorded Consum. = BS + Received – End Bal- Wastage
Step 5. Adjust consumption for stock outs and compute AMC
• key variable in the quantification formula and should be as accurate as
possible.
• If stock-outs occurred during that period, the average must be adjusted to
include the consumption
46. Cont….
• There are two ways to compute AMC
• CA= C ÷(DOS/30.5)
• CA= C ÷( RM-SO in Month )
• For example, consider the entry for ampicillin 250mg capsules. The total
consumption for a 6-month review period was 89,000 capsules. The
medicine was out of stock for 34 days in the 6-month period. Therefore, the
average monthly consumption (CA) is:
CA = 89,000 ÷ [6 – (34 ÷ 30.5)] = 89,000 ÷ 4.8852 = 18,219
or
CA = 89,000 ÷ (6 – 1) = 89,000 ÷ 5 = 17,800
AMC = CA/RM
47. Cont..
Step 6. Calculate the projected AMC for expected changes in consumption pattern
CA adjusted for service change= CA + (CA x percent for SC)
Step 7. Convert into order pack
No. of order pack = quantity calculated/pack size required
Step 8. Estimate costs for each health commodity and total these. Total cost of each drug = no. of order pack x unit
price per pack
Step 9 Compare total costs with the budget and make adjustments. ( VEN/ABC)
• If the total expected procurement cost exceeds the available budget, only two choices really exist:
either
• Obtain more funds or
• Reduce the number of commodities or the particular quantities of each ordered, or both.
48. Limitations of Consumption Method
• Assumes that current and past usage patterns will continue
• Not useful for newly introduced protocols
• Relies on good inventory records
• Possible changes in the pattern of consumption (Change of prescribers,
promotional influence)
• Needs data from a system with relatively uninterrupted supply
• Can perpetuate irrational use
49. Summary
The success and accuracy of forecasting can be improved by
• Accurate consumption data is critical.
• Most recent accurate data yields highly valuable information
• Always ensure you adjust for losses, negative/positive adjustments and stock-outs
during the consumption review period
• A team approach to making assumptions and decisions
• Cross checking data, information and projected needs
• Using ongoing monitoring of projected versus actual needs to adjust assumptions
51. Objectives
The objectives of this session are:
• To discuss the critical issues in quantification
• To describe the steps in Morbidity method of quantification process
• Merit of Morbidity method of quantification
52. Morbidity Method Morbidity based
forecasting
Morbidity Method:- estimates the need for specific pharmaceuticals
based on the expected number of attendances, the incidence of
common diseases, and standard treatment patterns for the diseases
considered.
• This method starts from two sets of data: the number of episodes of
each health problem and average standard treatment schedules
53. Cont.…
Morbidity method is more appropriate when:
Available consumption data are incomplete /unreliable
Prescribing patterns are not cost effective
The health facility or services concerned are not expanding or contracting rapidly
54. Morbidity Method: Data Needs
• Population data broken down by cohorts
• Prevalence/incidence of diseases
• Current patient numbers
• Estimates on the number of patients to be tested or treated
• Program attrition rates
• STGs, testing algorithms or other protocols
56. Morbidity based forecasting steps[4]
Summary
• Preparing an Action Plan, critical step
• Hospital level quantification for increased ownership and data quality
• Computerized methods for increased efficiency
• Morbidity based quantification steps –critical issue
57. 3. Adjusted consumption method
• Uses data e.g. disease incidence, consumption and/or expenditure from
a standard supply system and extrapolates the consumption to the
target supply system
• Useful for estimating needs when rolling out services to new sites or
when starting new programs
58. Adjusted Consumption: Data needs
• Similar area or region with good consumption and population data
• Requires adequate comparability of facilities, morbidity & treatment
practices
59. Limitations of Adjusted Consumption
• Difficult to match or adjust for all variables
• e.g. prescribing practices
60. 4. Service-level projection method
• Used for estimating budget needs
• Uses the average medical supply procurement cost per attendance or bed-
days in different types of health facilities in one system to project needs for
similar types of facilities in another system
• Doesn’t directly estimate quantities of health commodities needed
61. Choosing a Forecasting Method
This is based on the availability and quality of data:
1. Rate of consumption of the pharmaceuticals used
2. Number and type of patients receiving services, treatment and
testing guidelines
62. Forecasting Accuracy
The measures are as follows:
Algebraic deviation = Forecast demand - Actual demand
Absolute deviation = |Forecast demand - Actual demand|
Absolute deviation percentage = (Absolute deviation /actual demand) * 100
Mean absolute deviation (MAD) =Sum of absolute deviation over N periods/N
Mean absolute deviation percentage (MADP) =Sum of absolute deviation percentages over
N periods/N.
EPSA KPI….Most Popular Matrix :Mean Absolute Percentage Error - MAPE
63. Mean Absolute Percentage Error - MAPE
• The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the mean or average
of the absolute percentage errors of forecasts. The smaller the MAPE
the better the forecast.
n
Actual
|
Forecast
-
Actual
|
MAPE
%
100
*
64. The Realities!
Forecasts are seldom perfect
Most techniques assume an underlying stability in the system
Short-term forecasts are more accurate than long-term forecasts
Collaborative forecasting will minimize forecast errors
Summary
68. Introduction
68
Laboratory is a dynamic science, in which majority of resources and
finance is allocated to research and related projects
Diagnostic technologies are continuously changing
Occurrence of new emerging disease patterns
Requirement of a continuous periodic and relentless updating and revision
of tests as well as product lists
69. Introduction……
• laboratories service required large number of commodities
• Quantification system uses item prioritization based on routine utilization
and budget availability of the facilities
• Which depends on VEN systems and ABC analysis to prioritize selection,
procurement, and use according to the potential health impact of products.
70. Points to be considered for quantification
12/21/2023 70
• Types of services given
• Level of health facility
• Test menu
• Type of instruments available
• VEN category of each hub
• Previous issue data
71. Peculiarity of placement
• Obsolete (discontinuity) of the technologies
• Unmovable (underutilization) of items
• Substituted (replaceable) items
• An emergence of placement machines and reagents
C. chemistry, hematology and glucometer machines
72. Cont..
Invention of new technologies
e.g. Chromatographic technique for serology kits digital/computerized X-Ray,
MRI & CTscan machines
New emerging disease patterns e.g. Hepatitis virus, Cancer diagnostic
reagents (HPV), kidney transplant diagnostic reagents
76. Content
• The Methodology For the 2014 EBY quantification exercise
• To Sampling Approach
• Quantification supporting modality
• General Assumption for the 2014 Quantification
• Data source for the quantification Exercise
• Data quality and cleaning
• Proposed team composition for Clustering
77. Methodology(Process-1)
• Technical team composed of
staffs with various technical
expertise's in the area of
medicines, laboratory reagents,
medical supplies and medical
equipment is established at
central level under the
Quantification and Market
Shaping Directorate to work on
the overall quantification process
• Smart chain(Global fund)
• Conduct an analysis on the overall
RDF quantification
• Conduct a workshop and discuss
with Experts from
stakeholders(EPSA, Implementing
partners on the current practice and
future Design
• Conduct a Health facility visit
• Come to a conclusion on the future
design
• Modeling approach
78. Process(2)
• SOP/Procedural developed and took kit
• Develop the sampling/Modelng approach
• Cluster based approach
• Revise the list of pharmaceuticals that will be
included in the forecast by considering the
agency’s procurement list, commodities that
are supplied in health program, less essential
items, strength duplications and other
considerations.
• Revise the unit price of all commodities and
verify the final price list together with Tender
Management Directorate(From Latest PO)
• Develop a quantification Tool
• Provide an Orientation for EPSA hubs and
RHBs
• Hub Activity
• Cluster will establish a cluster based team and will be
responsible for the forecasting under its catchment
• Establish a team
• Select health facilities that will be supported based
on the selection criteria and list for which sites
their result will be extrapolated-Cluster and Hub
• Provide intensive support for selected sample
health facilities at least twice-Cluster and Hub
• One Integrated with Regimen data collection
• Other onsite support
• Aggregate the forecast result of supported health
facilities as per the Quantification tool-Cluster
and Hub
• Aggregate and Analyze the forecast of hubs under
the cluster-Cluster
• Conduct a validation workshop-Cluster
79. Cluster based approach
• The central Team will oversee and support the cluster Hubs
• The cluster hubs in return will mentor and support the hubs
under them.
• A Cluster based Team will be developed at each cluster and the
cluster will be responsible for aggregating and make ready the
data under ites respective Hubs
80. Process(3)
• Centrally
• Aggregate and analyses the Cluster forecast by comparing with previous years forecast, past three years
adjusted issue data, request Vs issue and other parameters
• Prepare a validation workshop and agree with Cluster
• Generate three years forecast (2013-2015EBY)
• Use Pipeline software to analyses the current stock on hand and on pipeline and compute the annual
demand of procurement for all commodities
• Reconcile the annual demand budget with the actual budget available considering factors like foreign
currency, and discuss this with finance directorate.
• Generate procurement request for items not included in framework agreement and for locally
manufactured items
• Initiate request for PO issuance for items included in framework agreement
• Quarterly update Pipeline and do a proper pipeline monitoring
•
81. Activity Expected from Hub and center at Forecasting
Phase
During the forecasting phase, the hub based
quantification team will do the following
activities
• Make RDF quantification an agenda on
technical working groups(IMPACT
Team) and other coordination platforms
• Select health facilities that will be
supported based on the selection criteria
and list for which sites their result will
be extrapolated to.
• Disseminate the forecasting tool to
sampled health facility
• Provide intensive support for selected
sample health facilities at least twice
(one whole day to discuss on what data
sources to use and exercise on some
medicines and get back another whole
day to see the progress the facility is
doing and support on gaps). lth facilities
under catchment
• Data sources that can be used at facility
level to generate forecast can be the
following
• Bin cards , Stock cards,Dagu
facility level (if updated regularly),
Model 19 and 22,
• Case reports (HMIS, morbidity
data)
• Past year quantification report
• Daily lab registration reports
• Aggregate the forecast result of
supported health facilities as per the
Quantification tool
• Analyze the aggregated forecast and
send the final hub based forecast to
central team on the agreed timeline
• For cluster Hubs:
• Provide an intensive support for
those hubs under the clusters
82. Cont..
During the forecasting phase, the central quantification team will do the following activities
Provide intensive support to cluster hubs
Aggregate and analyses the hubs forecast by comparing with previous years forecast,
past three years adjusted issue data, request Vs issue and other parameters
Prepare a validation workshop and agree with hubs on the three years forecast result
Generate three years forecast (2013-2015EBY)
83. Activity Expected from Hub and center at Supply planning Phase
• During the supply planning phase, the hub
based quantification team will do the
following activities:
• Update and use the following data to
calculate the net requirements a part of
supply plan
• SOH with respective expiry date as
of Tir 30 2012EBY
• Expected local delivery from Tir to
Sene 30/2012
• During the supply planning phase, the central
quantification team will do the following
activities:
• Use Pipeline software to analyses the current stock
on hand and on pipeline and compute the annual
demand of procurement for all commodities
• Reconcile the annual demand budget with the actual
budget available considering factors like foreign
currency, and discuss this with finance directorate.
• Generate procurement request for items not included
in framework agreement and for locally
manufactured items
• Initiate request for PO issuance for items included in
framework agreement
• Quarterly update Pipeline and do a proper pipeline
monitoring
84. Further activities planned-2013
Quantification
• Activities that will be done by the central team after finalization of the
quantification
• A summary of the quantification report will officially be shared to each directorate
and also on the agency’s website
• ABC/VEN analysis of RDF commodities
• Delivery breakdown for locally manufactured commodities will be done
• Quarterly pipeline monitoring using Pipeline software will be done for all vital
commodities
• Adjust AMC twice a year (every 6months)
• Monthly stock status reports
• Follow up the agreement versus demand or consumption for facilities that are
included in committed demand, analyses the challenges and come up with solutions
• Look for ways that will further improve the quality of RDF quantification
• Compute forecast accuracy twice a year (every 6months)
• Give inputs to market shaping team regarding RDF commodities
85. What Is new for this year quantification?
• Cluster based quantification
• Cluster based aggregation and Analysis
• Sampling Method
• FMOH highly engaged
86. Modeling Approach-for sampling
• Sampling approach
• Modeling approach will be used by the hub to sample that health
facility that will forecast their future need. This is with an objective
of obtaining representative health facility.
• It is expected to address :
• All referral hospitals under the hub catchment area (100%)
• Health centers -Sample (10% of the total with the respective volume)
• For Functional primary hospital sampling- (15% of the total primary hospital)
• General hospital 20% of the total will be taken as representatives sample
87. Cont.….
• The above sampling should be used which accordingly will be extrapolated by
using the number of Health facility (Primary hospital, General Hospital and health
center) who summit their need.
• The extrapolations should use the same volume (level) data to extrapolate the
uncovered (None summited) health facility.
• The criteria for selecting those sampled health facility will be
• Those health facility who had a good LMIS records(Dagu site)
• Those health facility with good accessibility
• Those health facility with the same route
• If the hub serves more than one region, region representation into the selection
88. How to Extrapolate????
• The extrapolation procedure is a critical step throughout the quantification
process to consider those health facilities that may not summit their forecast
need due to some circumstances. So it is required from the Hubs to
extrapolate the need of other using the formula
Y=(𝑻𝑭𝑵/𝑻𝑯𝑭𝑺) ∗ 𝑻𝑯𝑭
Where
• Y=Extrapolated For non-submitted HFs Need
• TFN= Total Submitted Facility Need in quantity
• THFS=Total number of health center who summit their forecast need in Number
• THF=Total Number of Health facility(HV,MV,LV or PH,GH) under the Hub
89. Example: How to extrapolate?
• Example on Extrapolation: Assume that Adama Hub have a total of
280 Health facility out of which 40 are primary hospital,200 Health
centers(40 High volume,100 middle volume,50 low volume) and 35
general hospital and the reset referral Hospital and only 4 Primary
Hospital and Health center Summit their need. So based on this
information how can we Extrapolate for
• Scenrio1:Primary Hospital
• Scenario 2:High Volume
90. Cont.…
• Hub Level role at 2013EBY quantification exercise
• Continuous support to HFs
• Supportive supervision
• Phone communication
• Support through WoHOs
• Sampling based on the predefined Assumption
• Extrapolation for sites that didn’t send forecast
• Feedback for HFs and WoHOs on data quality
91. Data Source for the quantification
Data sources
Hub level Central Level
• Last year quantification result
• Centrally developed quantification tool
• Annual hub distribution data
• Expert opinion
• Bin cards
• HCMIS
• Last year quantification result
• The forecasted data sent by selected health
facilities that is aggregated and adjusted at
hubs
• Data on stock on hand (hubs + central) and
quantity on pipe line.
• Updated hub-specific AMC
• Updated national AMC
• Updated prices are retrieved from recent POs
and price index guidelines and international
price indicator.
92. Data quality Issue-
Critical Issue to
consider
The data that is obtained/collected from the health facility should
be as reliable as possible.so it is expected from the hub to:
o Reconciling with the previous quantification exercise
o Compare and oversee the Actual issue trend
o Cross check with RDF purchase request from facility with in the redefined
period
•
96. Technical
assumption
Days out of stock should be
considered
Consider the expiry date for
supply planning
It is assumed that for AMC
Adjustment the review period to
be used:
At Health center:3 Month review
period
At Hospital:6 Month review
period
98. Routine medical
Device
Health facilities should undertake a
minor inventory analysis before
quantifying their demand.
Quantification for medical device
shall indicate slight deviation from
that of drug reagents or other
medical supplies. Accordingly the
health facility should consider the
following purposes.
Replacing the damaged device
For service expansion that under
takes
In accuracy and lack of precision
due to the elongated life span
For back up purpose in time of
emergency
For providing specialty health
service
99. Supply plan Assumption
Hub should use Stock on hand as of Tahesas 30,2013
Expected local delivery from Tahesase 30,2012- Sene 30,2013
Expiry date should be consider for SOH
Items that are locally procured and directly supplied to branches, will be
considered as stock on transit on the bases of the previous two quarter supply
performance and the remaining balance to be delivered as planned schedule
100. Other Assumption
• Health facility can use 5-15% of the total forecast if there is service expansion(Program scale up)
• For 2013 EBY Private health facility will not be considered
• The consumption pattern and price of pharmaceuticals will not be significantly changed in the
years to come
• Demand will increase as a result of the launching of Social Health Insurance & Community Health
Insurance
• Currently under construction public hospitals will begin service provision soon.
• Respective facilities will considere the no of days or months that the item was out of stock during
the review period
• The number of health facilities selected from each category is enough to represent the total number
health facilities found in the country
101. Cont.…
• Health facilities for which extrapolation is made have similar
consumption pattern to those of the respective categories of health
facilities that submitted their demand