This document discusses emerging opportunities to deliver relevant weather and climate information and services to smallholder farmers at scale. It outlines the need for spatially and temporally detailed historical, monitored, predicted, and projected climate data. Participatory approaches like PICSA can help communicate this information and support farmers' decision making. Effective partnerships are needed between meteorological agencies, researchers, extension services, and the private sector to generate localized climate data, train intermediaries, and ensure information reaches farmers through various communication channels. With improved access to actionable climate information and support systems, smallholder farmers' food security and livelihoods can be enhanced.

1. Emerging opportunities to deliver
relevant information and services
to smallholder farmers at scale
John M. Gathenya
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture & Technology
Strengthening Regional Capacity for Climate Services in Africa
Pre Event at the 5th Conference on Climate Change and
Development in Africa (CCDA-V),
Elephant Hills Resort, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe,
27th October, 2015

2. Scope
• Why weather and climate information ?
• Weather and Climate Information and Services
needed by smallholder Farmers
• Structured engagement of producers,
intermediaries and users of weather and climate
information
• Role of CCAFS, Regional and National
Meteorological Agencies and Partners
• What is needed going forward

3. Theory of change
Weather &
Climate;
Agriculture,
& Livestock
data
Analysis and
synthesis of data
to create
Information;
Communication
Integration of
Scientific and
Indigenous
Knowledge in
Planning
Decision support
tools &
frameworks at
all levels
Food Security
and Livelihoods

4. Climate Information Value Chain
Source: Netherlands Cooperation
on Water and Climate Service
www.waterandclimateservices.org
Producer?
Intermediary?
User?

5. Weather and Climate Information -
What is needed?
• Spatial resolution (of historical, monitored and
predicted information) relevant for planning of
smallholder agriculture
• Participatory approaches for communicating climate
information and helping smallholder farmers
incorporate it into their planning
• Efficient and effective communication that reaches
communities equitably and at scale
• New ways of presenting and communicating weather
and climate information
• Support systems that help communities act on
climate information to improve their livelihoods

6. Spatially Complete Weather and climate
information that meets smallholder needs
Historical /
Monitored
Data
Seasonal
Climate
Forecast
Short Term
Forecasts
& Alerts
Projections
of future
climate
19xx to 2015 3 months
2030
2050
2100
1month
1 day

7. Long Before
the Season
Historical
Climate Data
sans sequence seches (10 jours dans 21)
gfedcb
Premiere date pour le semi
gfedcb
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
13 Jul
28 Jun
13 Jun
29 May
14 May
29 Apr
Seasonal Forecasts from http://rava.qsens.net/themes/climate_template/seasonal-forecasts/
During the
Season
Short-term
Forecast & Warnings
Just Before
the Season
Seasonal
Forecast & revisit
plans
Participatory
Planning
Shortly After
the Season
Review weather,
production, forecasts &
process
PICSA – Structured approach of engaging smallholder
farmers
Credit Peter Dorward

8. Participatory Integrated Climate
Services for Agriculture (PICSA)
• Developed by CCAFS and partners
• Participatory approaches for communicating climate information and
helping smallholder farmers incorporate it into their planning.
• Training Manual for intermediaries has been developed => scale up.
• PICSA depends on products from analysed historical climate
information; this information is not routinely available.

9. Participatory Integrated Climate
Services for Agriculture (PICSA)
• PICSA has been piloted successfully in Africa
• Success in scaling up PICSA depends on
– Capacity of NMS to produce relevant climate information products,
– capacity of intermediaries to communicate this information with
farmers
• Partners are needed to test and use these training approaches
TOT TOF FOF

12. PICSA + Pilot areas

13. PICSA+ pilot areas
• Tanzania in late 2013 and is now being scaled
up under GFCS, with the goal of reaching
farmers in 10 districts across Tanzania and
Malawi by 2016.
• Kenya: Nyando

14. Improving spatial resolution of
weather monitoring
TAHMO
Satellite
Rainfall
WMO Plastic
rain gauge
Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory
(TAHMO) - a joint initiative of Oregon State
University and Delft University of Technology
MAPROOMS
Met Station

15. From National to Downscaled SCF
CPT FactFit

16. Using probability graphs to represent a
seasonal forecast
• E El Niño years in a probability graph
?

17. Communicating climate information
Frequency: Expresses variability with
numbers. For example, in four out of the
past ten years I was not able to produce
enough maize to feed my family until the
next harvest.
Uncertainty: Deals with what will
happen in the future. Because the
climate has been variable in the past, I
am uncertain about what the weather
will be like in next growing season.
Probability: Expresses uncertainty with
numbers. For example, there are two
chances in five that I will not produce
enough maize to feed my family until
the next harvest.
Forecast (or Prediction): New information that changes
probabilities about the future. A forecast reduces
uncertainty, but doesn’t eliminate it completely. We will
show how to use probability distributions to describe
past variability and express a seasonal forecast.
Variability: Deals with what happened
in the past. For example, rainfall in
2012 was different from rainfall in 2011,
which was different from rainfall in
2010.

18. Communication
• Leverage on growth in ICT, Mobile phone and
radio coverage in Africa
• Train intermediaries to use different channels
• 2 way communication
• Partnering with private sector

19. Partnerships & Support Systems
• Market information and access (inputs,
outputs)
• Agronomic information from NARIs
• Extension services

20. Conclusion
• We need weather and climate information
and services provided at a scale relevant for
decision making by smallholder farmers
• Data collected from multiple sources;
processed and communicated by the NMS in
partnership with other organizations
• We need new ways of presenting and
communicating weather and climate
information

21. Thanks
Contact information:
Prof. John M. Gathenya
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture &Technology
School of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering
Email:
j.m.gathenya@reading.ac.uk
j.m.gathenya@jkuat.ac.ke
mgathenya@gmail.com