The document is a group presentation on supply chain vulnerability. It discusses various causes of supply chain vulnerability including risks within the supply chain from lack of visibility and inaccurate forecasts as well as external risks from natural disasters, terrorism, and industrial action. Specific factors are also examined like globalized supply chains, outsourcing, and reduction in the supplier base. The presentation concludes by outlining approaches to supply chain risk management including identifying risks, analyzing their potential impact, and designing appropriate responses to reduce prevention and mitigate consequences.

1. VULNERBILITY OF SUPPLY CHAIN
GROUP PRESENTATION
1ST OCTOBER 2015

2. GROUP 1
Chisomo
Hastings
Francis
Bishop

3. INTRODUCTION
• For the purposes of this presentation Supply Chain Vulnerability
(SCV) is a point of weakness and/or possible threat to the supply
chain network. These complex networks may increase the number
of potential weaknesses in surety of supply, as may the use of other
modern business practices.
• The shift towards leaner supply networks during recent years has
resulted in these networks becoming more vulnerable. In particular,
there often tends to be very little inventory in the system to “buffer”
any interruptions in supply and, therefore, any disruptions can have
a rapid impact on the supply network.

4. CAUSES OF SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY
• Extending over several tiers, present numerous risks. Broadly, those
risks can be classified into two types : risks arising within the supply
chain and risks external to it.
• Risk within the supply chain arises from interaction between constituent
organisations across the supply chain. It is caused by sub-optimal
interaction and co-operation between the entities along the chain. Such
supply chain risks result from a lack of visibility, lack of ‘ownership’, self-
imposed ‘chaos’, just-in-time practices and inaccurate forecasts.
• The internal risks are those that appear in normal operations such as late
delivery, excess stock, poor forecasts, financial risks, minor accidents,
human error, faults in information technology.
• External risks arise from interactions between the supply chain and its
environment.
Such interactions include disruptions caused by strikes, terrorism and
natural catastrophes. Any disruption at any stage in a supply chain that
can be linked to environmental causes is ascribable to external risks.

5. Causes of Vulnerability
• There are a number of factors that may lead to vulnerability in Supply Chain
Management. These can be Internal and External and below a:-
1) natural disasters (e.g. Floods in some parts of the country affected so
many things.
2)Terrorist incidents (e.g. events in the USA on 11th September 2001and
the recent on in Kenya)
3)industrial or direct action (e.g. the fuel price protest of September 2000,
which very rapidly impacted on almost every supply network in the U.K.);
4) Accidents (e.g. a fire that gutted the Mulli Brothers Warehouse)
5) operational difficulties (e.g. production or supply problems at one supplier
can impact every organisation in the supply network).
6) Lack of ownership due to blurring or boundaries between buying and
suppling originations arising from factors such as outsourcing and creation
of complicated networks of business relationships with confused lines of
responsibilities.

6. 7) Chaos risks due to mistrust and distorted information throughout the
supply chains. An example is the so called bullwhip effect, in which
fluctuations in orders increase as they move upstream from retailers to
manufactures to suppliers.
8) Decision risk due to chaos that makes it impossible to make the right
decision for every player in the supply chain.
9) Just in time relationship risks due to the fact an enterprise has little
capacity or stock in reserve to cater for disruptions in the supply chain
due to late deliveries, such as transport breakdowns.
10) Inertia risks due to a general lack of responsiveness by customers or
suppliers to changing environmental conditions and market signals with
consequential inability to react to completion moves or market
opportunities.

7. Factors contributing to supply chain vulnerability
• Whilst risk has always been present in the process of reconciling supply
with demand,there are a number of factors which have emerged in the last
decade or so which might be considered to have increased the level of risk.
These include:
• A focus on efficiency rather than effectiveness
• The globalisation of supply chains
• Focussed factories and centralised distribution
• The trend to outsourcing
• Reduction of the supplier base
• Volatility of demand
• Lack of visibility and control procedures

8. Factors contributing to supply chain vulnerability,
CONTINUE………….
• These factors are considered below in more detail.
A focus on efficiency rather than effectiveness
• The prevailing business model of the closing decades of the twentieth century was
very much based upon the search for greater levels of efficiency in the supply chain.
Experience highlighted that there was significant opportunity in many sectors of
industry to take out significant cost by focusing on inventory reduction. Just-in-time
(JIT) practices were widely adopted and organisations became increasingly
dependent upon suppliers. This model, whilst undoubtedly of merit in stable market
conditions, may become less viable as volatility of demand increases. The challenge
in today’s business environment is how best to combine ‘lean’ practices with an ‘agile’
response.
The globalisation of supply chains
• There has been a dramatic shift away from the predominantly ‘local for local’
manufacturing and marketing strategy of the past. Now, through offshore sourcing,
manufacturing and assembly, supply chains extend from one side of the globe to the
other. For example, components may be sourced in Taiwan, sub-assembled in
Singapore with final assembly in the USA for sale in world markets.
• Often the motivation for off-shore sourcing and manufacturing is cost. However, that
definition of cost is typically limited to the cost of purchase or manufacture. Only
rarely are total supply chain costs considered. The result of these cost-based
decisions is often higher levels of risk as a result of extended lead-times, greater
buffer stocks and potentially higher levels of obsolescence – particularly in short life-
cycle markets. A further impetus to the globalisation of supply chains has come from
the greater increase in cross-border mergers and acquisitions that we have
witnessed over the last decade or

9. • There is a strong logic behind this based upon the view that organisations
are more likely to succeed if they focus on the activities in which they have
a differential advantage over competitors.
• This increases the operational costs. For example, if you outsource from
South Africa, shipping and transport costs will be high.
• Lack of customer focus
• Sourcing and supply base management also have an effect on vulnerability
by increasing dependency on fewer suppliers.
Reduction of the supplier base
For a long time this has resulted into a dramatic reduction in the number of
suppliers from whom an organisation typically will procure materials,
components, services, etc. In some cases this has even extended to ‘single
sourcing’; whereby one supplier is responsible for the sole supply of an item.

10. The trend to outsourcing
Outsourcing also brings with it a number of risks, not least being the potential
loss of control. Disruptions in supply can often be attributed to the failure of one
of the links in the chain and, by definition, the more complex the supply network
the more links there are and hence the greater the risk of failure
Lack of visibility and control procedures
‘Visibility’ refers to the ability of all members of a chain to see from one end of
the pipeline to another; an undistorted view not clouded by intermediate
inventories or other barriers to vision. Lack of visibility forces supply chain
members to rely on forecasts and to build buffers which themselves only
worsen the situation. Unfortunately it is often the case that members of the
supply chain do not have detailed knowledge of what is happening in the rest of
the chain – for example, information on finished goods inventory, material
inventory, work-in-process, demand levels, production plans, capacity, yields,
order status and so on.

11. SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT
• Supply chain risk management aims at identifying the areas of potential risk
and implementing appropriate actions to contain that risk. Therefore it can
be defined as : “the identification and management of risks within the supply
chain and risks external to it through a co-ordinated approach amongs
supply chain members to reduce supply chain vulnerability as a whole.”
• There are also some ways to deal with, or manage each risk that one
identifies in supply chain networks or any other business as follows:
• Accept it because the cost of eliminating it may be too high
• Transfer it, e.g. if the product was insured.
• Reduce it by taking safety measures.
• Eliminate it

12. It is possible to identify four issues that foster success in supply chain continuity
management:
• Risk awareness among top managers
• Risk management as an integrated part of supply chain management
• Each individual employee in each entity must have
a) risk awareness
b) understanding of his/her role in the processes.
• Understanding that changes in business strategy change supply chain risk
profiles.

13. Risk Management can be of paramount importance in the
following way:-
1. Improves decision making, planning and prioritization.
2. Smoother and more reliable operations.
3. It helps to allocate capital and resources more efficiently.
4. It allows to anticipate what may go wrong, minimizing the amount of fire
fighting you have to do or in worst case scenario preventing a disaster or
seriously financial loss.
5. It improves the probability that you will deliver your business plan on time
and to budget.
6. There will be an increase in revenue.
7. Operations are constantly monitored to identify emerging problems.

14. HOW CAN SUPPLY CHAIN RISK MANAGEMENT ACHIEVED
1. Identify risks to the supply chain: This examines the supply chain,
defining the separate activities and their relationship, and systematically
studying these to find areas of risk.
2. Analyze the risks: Having identified the risks, the next step is to consider
their potential impact.
3. Designing Appropriate Responses to the risk: This is to know the
seriousness of the risks and consider different ways of dealing with them.
The following are the types of responses to risk.
a) Prevention to reduce the probability of risk event occuring.
b) Mitigation: To reduce the consequences.
c) Response: Waiting to evaluate actual events before deciding in a
response.

15. Supply chains are vulnerable to risks, and the level seem to be rising. And the
Supply Chain Risk Management has a role to deal with these risks. This will
increase the trust of various stakeholders in the field.
Conclusion

16. END OF PRESENTATION