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Supply chain risk management & resilience Guest lecture | Tilburg University | 31 March 2010 Robbert Janssen E-mail:  [email_address]
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recent years… Source: Yahoo Finance
Recent years….
Most important risks faced by multinational firms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Supply chain risks mentioned three times in Top 10!
Risks in supply chains?
Natural disasters reported 1900-2008 Source: EM-DAT (2010)
“ It does not happen to our company”
Risks in the supply chain – an example The Albuquerque accident ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2 very different responses to the accident ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Normann & Jansson (2003), Sheffi & Rice Jr. (2005)
Some developments and trends in supply chain management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Christopher (2005), Husdal (2009)
What are the most important developments / trends that lead to increased risks in the Netherlands? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: TNO-onderzoek: Risico’s en Kwetsbaarheden in Logistieke Ketens (2010)
4 constructs that we need to deconstruct ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wagner and Bode (2008)
Supply chain risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Jüttner et al. (2003); Zsidisin and Ritchie (2008)
Analysing supply chain risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Sheffi & Rice Jr. (2005)
Risk perception ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Supply chain risk sources ,[object Object],Source: Christopher & Peck (2004)
Supply chain risk sources ,[object Object],Source: Christopher & Peck (2004) Machine  break-down Employee strike Order quantity policies Quality control Volatile customer-demand Wrong order-forecast Natural disasters Political instability Severe weather conditions Bankruptcy of supplier Quality problems at supplier Transportation failure
Supply chain disruptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Craighead et al. (2007), Wagner and Bode (2008)
Iceberg of disruptions Worldwide known disruptions 9/11, novel influenza H1N1 Region / country Piracy, Foot and mouth disease, Q-fever Individual (chain) disruptions Fire, strikes Disruptions that took place  but were not in the press ‘ almost-disruptions’ Big customer threatens to leave Insolvable supplier saved from bankruptcy Huge reservoir with potential disruptions
Most frequently occurring disruptions in 2008-2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: TNO-onderzoek: Risico’s en Kwetsbaarheden in Logistieke Ketens (2010)
Where did the disruptions come from? Source: TNO-onderzoek: Risico’s en Kwetsbaarheden in Logistieke Ketens (2010)
The disruption profile Source: Sheffi & Rice Jr. (2005)
What are the consequences of a disruption? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Toyota ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Spitsnieuws 24 March (2010)
Consequences of supply chain disruptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Hendricks and Singhal (2003, 2005a, 2005b)  , Wagner and Bode (2008)    The consequences of disruptions are severe but are they the same for all firms?
Supply chain vulnerability ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Wagner and Bode (2008)
Drivers of supply chain vulnerability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Craighead et al. (2007), Wagner and Bode (2008)
Example: Density ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: TNO - Quick scan: overzicht van netwerk logistieke hot spots in Nederland (2009). Falasca et al. (2009)
Example: Lean and JIT production philosophies ,[object Object],[object Object],Source: Christopher and Rutherford (2004)
One construct left ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Supply chain risk management (SCRM) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],   Well that sounds pretty easy, doesn’t it? Source: ISO 31000
The problem of risk management: It’s an ostrich business! Risk management is not sexy, no fun and it costs money. And the benefits are not even sure!
5 most important barriers towards implementing SCRM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: TNO-onderzoek: Risico’s en Kwetsbaarheden in Logistieke Ketens (2010)
Step 1+2: Risk identification and assessment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Lammers, Ploos van Amstel and Eijkelenbergh (2009)
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Step 3 of risk management
Film clip – example of creating awareness and focus ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Step 3: Risk management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: DeLoach (2000), Husdal (2009)
Cost-benefit analysis of risk management
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Supply chain resilience ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Fiksel (2006), Sheffi and Rice Jr. (2005), Husdal (2009) Resilience  needed
How to become more resilient? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Sheffi and Rice Jr. (2005), Lammers, Ploos van Amstel en Eijkelenbergh (2009) redundancy transparency flexibility collaboration
Reconciling supply chain risk with supply chain management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Melnyk, Davis, Spekman and Sandor (2010)
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Suggested further reading ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thanks for your attention Any questions?

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Supply Chain Risk Management (guest lecture Tilburg University March 2010)

  • 1. Supply chain risk management & resilience Guest lecture | Tilburg University | 31 March 2010 Robbert Janssen E-mail: [email_address]
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Recent years… Source: Yahoo Finance
  • 6.
  • 7. Risks in supply chains?
  • 8. Natural disasters reported 1900-2008 Source: EM-DAT (2010)
  • 9. “ It does not happen to our company”
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. Iceberg of disruptions Worldwide known disruptions 9/11, novel influenza H1N1 Region / country Piracy, Foot and mouth disease, Q-fever Individual (chain) disruptions Fire, strikes Disruptions that took place but were not in the press ‘ almost-disruptions’ Big customer threatens to leave Insolvable supplier saved from bankruptcy Huge reservoir with potential disruptions
  • 22.
  • 23. Where did the disruptions come from? Source: TNO-onderzoek: Risico’s en Kwetsbaarheden in Logistieke Ketens (2010)
  • 24. The disruption profile Source: Sheffi & Rice Jr. (2005)
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34. The problem of risk management: It’s an ostrich business! Risk management is not sexy, no fun and it costs money. And the benefits are not even sure!
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40. Cost-benefit analysis of risk management
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46.
  • 47. Thanks for your attention Any questions?