Vision for a roadmap to autonomy final
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There are 49 companies licensed to test autonomous vehicles in California. Autonomous trucking is an area of focus, with companies like Embark completing long-distance trips. While the technology is progressing, fully autonomous vehicles still have many challenges to overcome related to sensing environments, interpreting situations, and validating software. Widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles may be 15-25 years away and will require improvements in areas like cost, regulations, and public acceptance as mistakes will be inevitable. Questions also remain around how autonomous vehicles will handle tasks normally done by human drivers like weigh stations or drive-thrus.
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Vision for a roadmap to autonomy final
- 1. Vision for a Roadmap to Autonomy
- 2. Autonomous Vehicles Are EVERYWHERE!
- 3. Embark’s self-driving truck completes 2,400 mile cross-U.S. trip
- 5. HYPE—Heady Yarn for Price/Earnings • Lots of conferences worldwide • Who’s doing the work if everyone is attending conferences and TALKing about it? • Technology Always Looks Kool!
- 6. 49 Companies Licensed to Test in California • Volkswagen Group of America • Mercedes Benz • Way • Delphi Automotive • Tesla Motors • Bosch • Nissan • GM Cruise LLC • BMW • Honda • Ford • Zoox, Inc. • Drive.ai, Inc. • Faraday & Future Inc. • Valeo North America, Inc. • NIO USA, Inc. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/testing • Telenav, Inc. • NVIDIA Corporation • AutoX Technologies Inc. • Subaru • Udacity, Inc. • Navy INc. • Renovo.auto • UATC LLC (Uber) • PlusAi INc. • Nuro, Inc. • CarOne LLC • Apple Inc. • Bauer’s Intelligent Transportation • Pony.AI • TuSimple • Jingchi Corp • SAIC Innovation Center, LLC • AImotive Inc • Aurora Innovation • Nullmax • Samsung Electronics • Continental Automotive Systems Inc • Voyage • CYNGN, Inc. • Roadstar.Ai • Changan Automobile • Lyft, Inc. • Phantom AI • Qualcomm Technologies, Inc. • aiPod, Inc. • SF Motors Inc. • Toyota Research Institute • Apex.AI
- 7. Trucking Companies— Electric/Autonomous • Embark • tuSimple • Tesla • Nikola • Thor • Hyliion e-Axle • Meritor • Cummins • Caterpillar • GAZ Group • Proterra • Volvo • Daimler Trucks • Navistar • PACCAR • Toyota • Uber ATG (Otto) • TransPower • Siemens • Iveco • MAN/SCANIA • KAMAZ
- 8. New Names • Auro Robotics • Einride • GAZ Group • Local Motors • NAVYA • SB Drive • Starsky Robotics • Volgabus • Yutong
- 9. Mining
- 10. Bus
- 11. Big Trucks
- 12. Work, Ag & Short Haul
- 13. Indoor Work
- 14. Package Delivery Toyota unveils autonomous e-commerce concept vehicle, development alliance Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
- 16. Car GM will make an autonomous car without steering wheel or pedals by 2019
- 17. Door Delivery
- 18. Bik e
- 19. Dron e
- 20. Personal
- 21. Range—How Far and Fast Can You Go? • Last 50 Feet • Last Mile • Local Delivery • Short Daily Range • Medium Daily Range • Long Daily Range • 4 mph • 10 mph • 25 mph • 40 mph • 55 mph • 70 mph
- 22. Pain and Benefits—More AND Less • Higher uptime • Reach where others can’t—Medical to rural • Lower fuel costs • Handle declining manpower, aging population • Increase profits from 24/7 operation • Improve environment • GM Zero Future—emissions, accidents, congestion • Reduce accidents • Reduce congestion—less time to get places • Reduce emissions
- 23. Costs Driven More • 50% increase in diesel fuel cost in 2 yrs • Oil above $65/barrel • Drilling starting up again
- 24. What’s Important to You and Your Business? • Fuel Economy • Aerodynamics • Speed • Safety • Enjoyment • Yes, some people enjoy driving • Profit Margins • Total Societal Impact (TSI)
- 25. Autonomous Vehicles Are the Next Robot
- 27. Cruise Control Adaptive Cruise Control Self Parking Tesla AutoPilot Platooning Highway Only “DriverLess” Embark TuSimple Tesla Semi
- 28. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
- 29. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
- 30. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
- 31. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
- 32. Complexity Increases with Autonomy Level
- 34. Multiple Paths to Autonomy Vertical IntegrationHorizontal Integration Legislation Regulation Actuators CyberSecurity Sight Sensors GPS Mapping Artificial Intelligence V2X Vehicle PowerPlant Moral DecisionsInsurance Interior DesignHearing ISO26262 Where UnionsWireless Infrastructure Privacy Training Roads
- 36. I Can’t See You! • Lidar • Radar • Vision • Monocular • Stereo • 360º • 360º Bird’s Eye View • Ultrasonic • V2X
- 38. STMicroelectronics Radar Roadmap MMIC SoC Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit System on a Chip
- 39. Radar Improving Magna unveils high-definition ICON RADAR – scJanuary 16, 2018
- 41. Night Vision Improving DENSO develops new vision sensor for improve
- 42. Road Repairs in the RoadMap
- 44. So, When Will This Happen? • Kids 15-25 years to autonomy • What does it take? • Education • Practice • Failure • Injuries • Intelligence
- 45. Consumer Technology Adoption 20-90 yrs.
- 46. CarPlay Announced in 2013? Toyota and Lexus vehicles will finally start getting CarPlay
- 47. Impressive Growth of Cameras and Radar
- 48. Still Only 50%
- 49. Will Auto Car Profit Potential Drive It?
- 50. Asia Usurps Everyone for Trucks
- 51. Daimler Makes A Lot of Trucks
- 52. 1.7 Million Heavy Trucks per Year
- 53. Autonomous Vehicle Sales Could Reach 188,00 Looking ahead, Tractia’s researchers found that the market will continue to develop at a strong pace over the next few years with more competiti An executive summary of the report can be downloaded by visiting Tractia’s website.
- 54. 100,000 Autonomous Trucks Is Just 3%/yr.
- 55. Just 0.04% of Commercial Vehicles in Operation
- 56. When? Office of the Inspector General
- 57. Kia & Peugeot Peugeot CEO: All PSA vehicles will electrified by 2025
- 58. Daimler, Bosch Self-driving taxis from Daimler, Bosch Feb. 5, 2018 2:29 AM ET|By: Yoel Minkoff, SA News Editor More robo-taxis? Daimler (OTCPK:DDAIF), the world's No.1 maker of premium cars, and Bosch (OTC:BSWQY), the world's No.1 automotive supplier, will begin testing the vehicles "in the coming months." "Apart from highly autonomous level 3 vehicles we will also bring fully autonomous vehicles - level 4/5 - to the streets in the foreseeable future," Daimler's Wilko Stark told Automobilwoche.
- 60. What Will Power the Autonomous Vehicle? • Diesel • Biodiesel • Gasoline • Natural Gas • BioGas • Propane • Ethanol • Electricity • Fuel Cell • Battery • Catenary
- 62. No More Gas—It’s NOT a Pill • CA Bill to banish gas cars by 2040 • China, France, U.K. on record against gas
- 63. Big Push for Electric
- 64. How Stories Change with Technology
- 65. Electric Commercial Vehicles Are Here NOW FUSO eCanter – first all-electric trucks in series production delivered to customers in Europe
- 66. Cat Got Your Tongue? Electrified Highway Goes Live to Serve Ports of Long Beach, Los Angeles
- 67. Electrified
- 69. Difficult to Interpret Lane Markings
- 70. School Bus Is Uniquely USA
- 71. Can’t Stay On Track?
- 72. HyperLoop—High Speed Rail in a Tunnel
- 73. Mistakes ARE Inevitable Robots (Autonomous Vehicles) Will Make Fatal AutoMyles – Paul Myles There’s a potentially heavy ethical price to pay towards a safer future, Continental’s Dr. Elmar Degenhart to People killed by autonomous vehicles are an inevitable price to pay for a Vision Zero future. That’s the admission made by Dr. Elmar Degenhart, chief executive officer and executive board member of When asked to reflect on comments made to us by Lockheed Martin’s Michael DeKort in the article Guinea He said: “No technology is perfect. We might see cars that are driving at Level 4, Level 5 which will not be a
- 74. Some Questions? • How does it go through a weigh station? • Who is responsible for Pre/Post Trip? • How do I get pizza to my door? • How does a Starbucks’ drive thru work? • How do you validate self-learning software? • If someone in vehicle, what is the human interface? • What will it cost to repair after a crash? • If I’m running to catch a bus, will it wait for me?
- 75. My Conclusions for Fleets • Not everyone can survive • All struggling to figure measurable benefit to fleet • Always takes longer than people think • It will happen • You can’t live without cell telephone today • When it was Analog/2G it was a hard sell
- 76. Robotic Car or Driver?
Editor's Notes
- Dedicated publications
- Vertical Integration—GM Horizontal Integration—Waymo, Uber, Others? Legislation, Regulation Artificial Intelligence—Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Big Data, Self-Learning V2X—Vehicle, Infrastructure, Pedestrian, Grid, Device, Everything Where—long haul, short haul, package delivery, rural, urban, neighborhood, last mile, last 50 feet, on Hearing—electric vehicles make noise, hear siren Sight Sensor—See next page Autonomous Trucks NEED roads.
- Car sharing reduces number of cars sold and changes where the profits will be in the future. Cars are parked 90% of the time. If usage is improved, won’t need so many vehicles in the future.
- Who hands over the paperwork?