Will Cars Always Be Cars

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A look into the future of personal transportation

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Will Cars Always Be Cars

  1. 1. Are You ready for the next generation of cars? <ul><li>What would you rather do: </li></ul><ul><li>Drive your car yourself? </li></ul><ul><li>Or </li></ul><ul><li>B) Write emails, text friends, go 2X’s the speed limit, watch a movie, read a book, take a nap and let the car take you…. </li></ul>
  2. 2. Well soon you will have that choice and here is why: 1. Converging existing technology in a new way 2. The regulators are demanding it 3. Will dramatically reduce carbon emissions 4. The two largest consumer segments will demand it
  3. 3. A brief history perspective Mechanical Intelligent Autonomous 2005- 2015? Cars begin to do the driving in order to: Reduce accidents; Reduce traffic; Reduce emissions; Help consumers remain independent 1970’s to 2005 Chips and boards begin entering cars for fuel efficiency and driver safety. From 1900 to 1970’s Car systems were largely mechanical
  4. 4. Convergence of existing technologies Radar Sensors GPS V2V V2I High- speed Chips Intelligent Transportation
  5. 5. Inventory of Technologies: GPS V2V Radar & Camera Sensors V2I <ul><li>System is in </li></ul><ul><li>place </li></ul><ul><li>Need higher </li></ul><ul><li>degree of </li></ul><ul><li>accuracy </li></ul><ul><li>Improved </li></ul><ul><li>mapping </li></ul><ul><li>US has the only short range dedicated frequency already in place </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless connections </li></ul><ul><li>Driver assist cruise control </li></ul><ul><li>Night vision </li></ul><ul><li>Lane drift correction </li></ul><ul><li>Rear View cams </li></ul><ul><li>Blind spot override </li></ul><ul><li>DARPA </li></ul><ul><li>SRDF established </li></ul><ul><li>Fed Interstates fitted by 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic light sensors & cams developed </li></ul>
  6. 6. Regulators Globally Demanding Change All states must fit Federal Interstates with HOV lane for autonomous vehicles by 2015 U.S. Department of Transportation Fatalities per 10,000 vehicles cut by 40% by 2010 Japan’s Ministry of Transportation Reduce traffic fatalities by ½ by 2010 (incl. pedestrians) European Union 50% reduction in fatalities within 10 years Federal Highway & Traffic Safety Institute Mandates to Manufacturers
  7. 7. Manufacturers Respond In order to meet the ½ and zero goals, we must build vehicles that reduce accidents themselves Nissan Be the first to make a collision free vehicle Honda When a driver cannot respond, we will make a car that can. GM ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) will meet mandates Toyota 50% reduction of ALL accidents within 15 years DaimlerChrysler Manufacturer Committments
  8. 8. Regulator motivators Idle time – 2.9 billion gallons of fuel 58 fully loaded supertankers 2006 – record levels of CO2, 0.5% increase 38 hours idle in traffic per American 4.2 billion hours nationwide Cost estimated $78.2 billion or $710 per driver Over 40,000 fatalities per year since 1994 2006 loss & crash related expenses estimated at $230 billion Emissions Congestion Fatalities
  9. 9. Disrupting the Weight= Fuel & Emissions Cycle 2. Safer Cars= Higher Structural Safety 1. Driver Error= 90%+ all accidents <ul><li>Lower </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle weight= </li></ul><ul><li>greater efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>all fuel types & </li></ul><ul><li>combinations </li></ul>5. Less Reinforcement = Lower vehicle weight 4. Collision Free = less reinforcement 3. Structural Safety= Heavier Vehicles= Less Fuel efficiencies
  10. 10. Welcome to the “Hour Glass Society”: Youth Bulge & Boomers Don’t care about control: want multi-tasking Age 0-15 Approx: 10% of Pop Age 40-55 Approx: 15% of Pop Age 15-40 Approx: 30% of Pop Age 55+ Approx: 45% of Pop Want to retain independence
  11. 11. Replicating human actions and responses to the environment <ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Vision </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sensor system, radar, lasers, infrared </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Actuation – accelerate, break, steer, change gear </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Adaptive cruise control </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Computation system – reaction an analysis </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Software </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li> Navigation system – knowledge of roads </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>and travel to final destination </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>GPS </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Challenge – combining these systems into a viable, affordable solution
  12. 12. Steps towards autonomous vehicles <ul><li>DARPA Challenge - autonomous vehicle research and development program with the goal of developing technology that will keep war fighters off the battlefield and out of harm’s way </li></ul><ul><li>2004: desert challenge – no vehicles completed the course </li></ul><ul><li>2005: desert challenge – 3 vehicles complete 132 mile course in under 10 hours </li></ul><ul><li>2007: urban challenge – 6 vehicles complete 60 mile urban course in under 6 hours </li></ul>
  13. 13. Lessons from DARPA <ul><li>Simplified urban context </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No pedestrians, few cars </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Vehicle imperfections </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2 cars collided, one vehicle mistook a driveway for a road </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it science fiction? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2004 vs. 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>First powered heavier than air flight took place in 1903 (Wright brothers). By the late 1920s, airlines were employing flight attendants for commercial flights </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Autonomous vs. collision free <ul><li>Cars don’t need to be completely autonomous in order to drastically reduce the number of accidents </li></ul><ul><li>In the near future: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Think about it not in terms of an autonomous chauffeur </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Instead, compare these near future vehicles to robotic horses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>These vehicles may control much of the moment-by-moment decision, like a horse would for a carriage </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>But the human driver can take control if necessary </li></ul></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Evolutionary process <ul><li>Infrastructure upgrades </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HOV lanes, V2I standardization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII) initiative – California and Michigan test-beds </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Evolutionary process <ul><li>Software & communication algorithm </li></ul><ul><li>V2V </li></ul><ul><ul><li>DARPA Challenge shows that although currently rough, software can be written to enable vehicles to operate autonomously </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Research collaboration – Microsoft and UIUC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>V2V communication protocol focusing on reducing redundant messages and improving efficiency </li></ul></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Evolutionary process <ul><li>Legislative protection </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current tort law allows penalties that could bankrupt companies offering autonomous technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Possible need for legislative protection for emerging technology </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Evolutionary process <ul><li>Consumer acceptance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In stages, not by huge leaps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Driven by benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Charles River Associates study – safety as a major concern, especially for people over 65 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hybrid autonomous/human model </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Implications <ul><li>Dramatic decrease in number of accidents </li></ul><ul><li>Mobility extended to all demographic segments </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency – speed and emissions </li></ul><ul><li>24 hour supply chain </li></ul>
  20. 20. Impact on State Farm <ul><li>Parallel to fly-by-wire </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1985: F8 Digital fly-by-wire project </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Replaced hydraulic systems </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Introduced software operated airplanes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flight Management Systems (FMS) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Control the plane through every stage of flight from take off to landing without any human input </li></ul></ul></ul>
  21. 21. Fly-by-wire <ul><li>Plane crash statistics </li></ul>
  22. 22. Liability <ul><li>Airplanes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aircraft manufacturer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Component part manufacturer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aircraft owner </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aircraft operator (pilot) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Airport operator (traffic control) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Corporate officers </li></ul></ul>
  23. 23. Liability <ul><li>If technology takes control of much, if not all of the vehicle’s operation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Accidents become product liability issue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Change will happen in stages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highway accidents reduced by infrastructure controlled lanes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technologies equipped on new vehicles drastically reduce accidents overall </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accident free vs. autonomous </li></ul></ul></ul>
  24. 24. Future of driver liability insurance <ul><li>Drivers will still have insurance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>They will want the option to drive themselves, even in an autonomous world </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Question: with the number of accidents dramatically reduced over the next 10 years, how can insurance companies justify the levels of premiums today? </li></ul>
  25. 25. Short run vs. long run <ul><li>Short run – lower premiums and maintain competitiveness through low operating costs and efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Long run – need for repositioning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How will auto insurance look 15 years from now? </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Science fiction? <ul><li>2008 Opel Vectra – Hands free </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Operate autonomously in a highway context at speeds up to 60 mph. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Traffic Assist System </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>lasers, sensors and cameras read and interpret signs, lane markings, surrounding traffic </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Software controls engine, break and acceleration, steering, lane positioning and distance to other vehicles </li></ul></ul></ul>
  27. 27. Conclusion <ul><li>Demand pull </li></ul><ul><li>Technology push </li></ul><ul><li>Existing technologies </li></ul><ul><li>How far are we before we as consumers completely rethink transportation? </li></ul><ul><li>Who should be first? </li></ul>

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