1. July 2008 Qualitative and Quantitative Research for Asian Integration Prayoga Wiradisuria Understanding Myanmar’s Social Stability: A portrait of Myanmar based on AsiaBarometer survey 2003 and the effect of cyclone Nargis 2008 GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ASIA PACIFIC STUDIES

2. Agenda Background Quick Overview of Myanmar Research Question and Hypothesis Theoretical Framework Analysis Conclusion Limitation and further research

4. Quick overview of Myanmar Population: 48 million Myanmar in Comparison Source: ASEAN Secretariat, ADB, CIA World Fact Book ADB, APT, ARF, ASEAN, BIMSTEC, CP, EAS, FAO, G-77, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICRM, IDA, IFAD, IFC, IFRCS, IHO, ILO, IMF, IMO, Interpol, IOC, ISO (correspondent), ITU, NAM, OPCW (signatory), UN, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, UPU, WCO, WHO, WIPO, WMO, WTO Member of following organizations 431,718 Indonesia 245,702 Thailand 186,961 Malaysia 161,547 Singapore 146,895 The Philippines Viet Nam Myanmar Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Lao PDR GDP US$ Current prices,2007 Services 23% Industry 7% Agriculture 70% 89% Buddhism 11% Other 70% Rural 30% Urban 70% above poverty below poverty line 30% 5%

5. World’s* perception over Myanmar *international main-stream media 76% “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ” U.S. freezes assets, restricts travel of Myanmar junta U.S. freezes assets, restricts travel of Myanmar junta Burma’s state run media: Propaganda machine Myanmar junta charges leading protesters The whole truth must be brought to light.. The military junta is powerful and ruthless The junta, known for its extreme xenophobia and paranoia

8. Theoretical framework in summary Source: World Development Indicators, FAO Statistics Myanmar’s social & political system Social & economic condition Social stability Shock (external or internal) Crisis likelihood (social turmoil) Scholarly perspectives presented in formal references : books, journals, media AsiaBarometer data: cross comparison study Cyclone Nargis disaster handling case Scholarly sources for cross validation AsiaBarometer data: cross comparison study Personal satisfaction Public satisfaction Comparison satisfaction

9. Social Stability Data Collection from AsiaBarometer 2003 , Source: AsiaBarometer 2003 Clusters Access to information Public satisfaction Personal satisfaction Description This basic cluster gives us information whether basically people are satisfied with their own life People’s satisfaction toward their government can be measured by the government’s ability to provide various provisions. In other words: government performance. Satisfaction also comes from relative comparison. When there is zero access to information, people can not compare with outsiders and therefore any satisfaction gap will not present. Questionnaire from AsiaBarometer 2003 Q1 - How satisfied are you with your job Q2 - How satisfied are you with your family life Q3 - How satisfied are you with your household income Q4 - How satisfied are you with your overall environment Q5 - How satisfied are your living standard Q6 - How satisfied are you gov’t housing provision Q7 - How satisfied are you gov’t health provision Q8 - How satisfied are you with public safety condition Q9 – Do you have daily access to newspaper Q10 – How often do you travel abroad Q11 – How often do you access the internet Q12 – How often do you communicate with people abroad

10. Social Stability Analysis Source: AsiaBarometer 2003 Clusters Access to information Public satisfaction Personal satisfaction Relative positioning Description Myanmar has relatively higher percentage of people who are satisfied with their life compared other Asian countries surveyed. Myanmar has relatively higher percentage of people who are satisfied with their government in providing basic services/provisions compared other Asian countries surveyed. Myanmar people has the least access to information, making them the to have the least capability to compare their living condition with others. Myanmar has relatively stronger social stability , Positive correlation to social stability Positive correlation to social stability Negative correlation to social stability Lead Lag Lead Lag Lead Lag

11. Crisis likelihood after cyclone Nargis , *Kartasasmita, 2007 Critical mass Militancy Shocks / momentum Required component* Crisis Significant percentage of dissatisfied people required Internal drive to make action (mostly lies with students and labors) Due to the absence of necessary critical mass and militancy to create crisis / social turmoil, it is suggested that the cyclone Nargis momentum will not be immediately followed by social turmoil or significant people movement against the ruling military junta. Description Presence No No Yes Statistic shows large percentage of Myanmar people are satisfied with their life and government performance Statistics shows large percentage of students and labors are actually satisfied with their life and government performance Devastating cyclone Nargis was handled poorly by the government and people’s life were not prioritized An event, internal or external, that make or force people to act AsiaBarometer survey 2003

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18. Exhibit-4: Overall Myanmar’s relative position Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q3 Q1 Myanmar South Korea Malaysia China Vietnam Thailand Japan Q4 Q2 India Sri Lanka Uzbekistan Q2 index Higher social stability