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The Future of
Transport and Mobility
Emilia Suomalainen
emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA-NC
Contents
Environmental drivers
Societal changes
Technological and other innovations
Challenges and issues
Environmental Drivers
Or why we should take care of the problem before it
takes care of us
Climate Change Imperative
GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
Climate Change Imperative
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
Decarbonisation Pathways
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2020, p. 154, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020
Decarbonisation Scenarios
Brand et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334
Decarbonisation Scenarios
Hill et al. 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.107
Peak Oil
BP Energy Outlook 2020, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html
Peak Oil
IEA World Energy Outlook 2018:
“Global conventional crude oil
production peaked in 2008 at 69.5
mb/d and has since fallen by around
2.5 mb/d”
The Shft Project 2020, https://theshiftproject.org/article/ue-declin-approvisionnements-petrole-2030-etude/
Local Air Quality
https://ourworldindata.org/outdoor-air-pollution
Other Environmental Issues
Congestion, allocation of urban space, noise, inactive lifestyles, access to services, …
Mapping tool: https://cyklokoalicia.sk/arrogance/
https://colvilleandersen.medium.com/the-arrogance-of-space-93a7419b0278
Societal Changes
Change is the only constant in life
Increasing Demand for Mobility
Drivers:
Passengers: rising living standards, population, GDP
Freight: GDP, international trade
See eg. ITF Transport Outlook 2019
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/itf-transport-outlook-
2019_transp_outlook-en-2019-en
Population Growth
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900
Urbanisation
https://ourworldindata.org/urbanization
Aging Populations
https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure
Other Developments
Economic growth
Rising living standards
International trade and globalisation
Innovations
Credible solutions or technology myths?
Disruptions
ITF Transport Outlook 2019
Electric Vehicles
IEA Global EV Outlook 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020
Hydrogen
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020
Autonomous Vehicles
https://www.ohm-advisors.com/insights/future-transportation-part-1-driverless-cars-are-widespread-connected-vehicles-will
“New Mobility”
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SACette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND
But also new logistics
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA-NC
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC
Roads of the Future
“Electric road systems” or ERS
https://www.piarc.org/en/order-library/29690-en-
Electric%20road%20systems:%20a%20solution%20f
or%20the%20future
“5th generation roads” or R5G
Connected, intelligent, positive energy, resilient,
self-diagnosing, safe, efficient, …
Cf. https://www.ifsttar.fr/en/online-
resources/science-and-
society/infrastructure/science-topics/what-will-the-
5th-generation-road-r5g-be-like/
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY
Urban Transformations
“15-minute city” by Prof. Carlos Moreno
http://www.moreno-web.net/livre-blanc-
ville-du-quart-dheure/
Also “smart cities”, “livable cities”, “20-minute
neighbourhoods”, …
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/01/21/phasing-out-cars-key-to-paris-mayors-plans-for-15-minute-city/
Urban Transformations
http://www.moreno-web.net/livre-blanc-ville-du-quart-dheure/
ICT and Digital Technologies
“Mobility as a Service” or MAAS
Better integration of transport systems: public transport, taxis, shared mobility, active
mobility, …
Helsinki one of the first with Whim and MaaS Global (2014)
Door-to-door transport services, first/last mile transport services
“Demand-Responsive Transit” (DRT)
Cf. https://mobilitybehaviour.eu/2017/08/04/demand-responsive-transit-drt/
Sharing Economy
Car sharing, bike sharing, electric kick scooter sharing, …
Ride sharing: short (Klaxit, Karos, …) and long distance (Blablacar, …)
Ride hailing (Uber, Lyft, …)
Attention to environmental impacts and other negative externalities
“Lisbon Study” by ITF
https://www.itf-oecd.org/itf-work-shared-mobility
“Car, public transport of the future”? (Cetelem, 2013)
https://observatoirecetelem.com/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-lautomobile/la-voiture-
transport-en-commun-du-futur/esprit-de-synthese/
Hype, Technology Miracles and Myths
Hype: autonomous vehicles, hydrogen, new mobility, …
Silver bullets: electric vehicles, renewable energy, …
Myths: zero emission vehicles, sustainable aviation, …
“Hydrogen is a technology that has a bright future – and always will”
Aviation technology myths, see https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.02.004
Excuse to delay taking action?
Challenges
Moving from relative to absolute decoupling
Decoupling
GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
Decoupling
GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis
GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis
GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
Challenge: Absolute Decoupling
Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/travail-de-these-decarboner-transports-dici-2050/
Challenge: Energy Transition
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix
Challenge: Scale and Speed of Change
BP Energy Outlook 2020, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html
Challenge: Inequalities in Energy Use
SEI 2020 The Carbon Inequality Era, https://www.sei.org/publications/the-carbon-inequality-era/
Challenge: Inequalities in Energy Use
GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
Key Points
Speed and scale of the decarbonisation challenge
~Net zero emissions by 2050
Important synergies with other environmental issues (LAQ, …)
Increasing efficiency not enough => a paradigm change needed
Is it possible to reconcile growing demand and decreasing impacts?
But: the developing world needs a bigger slice
Beware of technology myths and silver bullets!
Solution: sobriety/frugality/degrowth?
Reading Tips
Work by Prof. Jillian Anable, Leeds and colleagues, eg. Rearranging elephants on the Titanic
Work by Prof. Julia Steinberger and colleagues, eg.
Scientists’ warning on affluence
Large inequality in international and intranational energy footprints between income
groups and across consumption categories
Providing decent living with minimum energy: A global scenario
The political economy of car dependence: A systems of provision approach
Discourses of climate delay
Your money or your life? The carbon-development paradox
Youtube talks by Prof. Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Teachings by J-M Jancovici (in French): https://slides.pimoid.fr/jancovici/mines_2019/
Thank you for your
attention!
Emilia Suomalainen
emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND

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