Transport and Mobility - The Future
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A 5-part course for university or engineering students on transport and mobility issues (history, current situation, theoretical concepts, future and the Finnish case)
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Transport and Mobility - The Future
- 1. The Future of Transport and Mobility Emilia Suomalainen emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA-NC
- 2. Contents Environmental drivers Societal changes Technological and other innovations Challenges and issues
- 3. Environmental Drivers Or why we should take care of the problem before it takes care of us
- 4. Climate Change Imperative GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
- 5. Climate Change Imperative IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
- 6. Decarbonisation Pathways IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2020, p. 154, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020
- 7. Decarbonisation Scenarios Brand et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111334
- 8. Decarbonisation Scenarios Hill et al. 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.04.107
- 9. Peak Oil BP Energy Outlook 2020, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html
- 10. Peak Oil IEA World Energy Outlook 2018: “Global conventional crude oil production peaked in 2008 at 69.5 mb/d and has since fallen by around 2.5 mb/d” The Shft Project 2020, https://theshiftproject.org/article/ue-declin-approvisionnements-petrole-2030-etude/
- 12. Other Environmental Issues Congestion, allocation of urban space, noise, inactive lifestyles, access to services, … Mapping tool: https://cyklokoalicia.sk/arrogance/ https://colvilleandersen.medium.com/the-arrogance-of-space-93a7419b0278
- 13. Societal Changes Change is the only constant in life
- 14. Increasing Demand for Mobility Drivers: Passengers: rising living standards, population, GDP Freight: GDP, international trade See eg. ITF Transport Outlook 2019 https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/transport/itf-transport-outlook- 2019_transp_outlook-en-2019-en
- 18. Other Developments Economic growth Rising living standards International trade and globalisation
- 19. Innovations Credible solutions or technology myths?
- 20. Disruptions ITF Transport Outlook 2019
- 21. Electric Vehicles IEA Global EV Outlook 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020
- 22. Hydrogen IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020
- 24. “New Mobility” Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SACette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND
- 25. But also new logistics Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA-NC Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC
- 26. Roads of the Future “Electric road systems” or ERS https://www.piarc.org/en/order-library/29690-en- Electric%20road%20systems:%20a%20solution%20f or%20the%20future “5th generation roads” or R5G Connected, intelligent, positive energy, resilient, self-diagnosing, safe, efficient, … Cf. https://www.ifsttar.fr/en/online- resources/science-and- society/infrastructure/science-topics/what-will-the- 5th-generation-road-r5g-be-like/ Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY
- 27. Urban Transformations “15-minute city” by Prof. Carlos Moreno http://www.moreno-web.net/livre-blanc- ville-du-quart-dheure/ Also “smart cities”, “livable cities”, “20-minute neighbourhoods”, … https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2020/01/21/phasing-out-cars-key-to-paris-mayors-plans-for-15-minute-city/
- 29. ICT and Digital Technologies “Mobility as a Service” or MAAS Better integration of transport systems: public transport, taxis, shared mobility, active mobility, … Helsinki one of the first with Whim and MaaS Global (2014) Door-to-door transport services, first/last mile transport services “Demand-Responsive Transit” (DRT) Cf. https://mobilitybehaviour.eu/2017/08/04/demand-responsive-transit-drt/
- 30. Sharing Economy Car sharing, bike sharing, electric kick scooter sharing, … Ride sharing: short (Klaxit, Karos, …) and long distance (Blablacar, …) Ride hailing (Uber, Lyft, …) Attention to environmental impacts and other negative externalities “Lisbon Study” by ITF https://www.itf-oecd.org/itf-work-shared-mobility “Car, public transport of the future”? (Cetelem, 2013) https://observatoirecetelem.com/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-lautomobile/la-voiture- transport-en-commun-du-futur/esprit-de-synthese/
- 31. Hype, Technology Miracles and Myths Hype: autonomous vehicles, hydrogen, new mobility, … Silver bullets: electric vehicles, renewable energy, … Myths: zero emission vehicles, sustainable aviation, … “Hydrogen is a technology that has a bright future – and always will” Aviation technology myths, see https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.02.004 Excuse to delay taking action?
- 32. Challenges Moving from relative to absolute decoupling
- 35. Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
- 36. Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
- 37. Challenge: Absolute Decoupling Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/travail-de-these-decarboner-transports-dici-2050/
- 39. Challenge: Scale and Speed of Change BP Energy Outlook 2020, https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html
- 40. Challenge: Inequalities in Energy Use SEI 2020 The Carbon Inequality Era, https://www.sei.org/publications/the-carbon-inequality-era/
- 41. Challenge: Inequalities in Energy Use GCP_CarbonBudget_2020.pptx, https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/20/presentation.htm
- 42. Key Points Speed and scale of the decarbonisation challenge ~Net zero emissions by 2050 Important synergies with other environmental issues (LAQ, …) Increasing efficiency not enough => a paradigm change needed Is it possible to reconcile growing demand and decreasing impacts? But: the developing world needs a bigger slice Beware of technology myths and silver bullets! Solution: sobriety/frugality/degrowth?
- 43. Reading Tips Work by Prof. Jillian Anable, Leeds and colleagues, eg. Rearranging elephants on the Titanic Work by Prof. Julia Steinberger and colleagues, eg. Scientists’ warning on affluence Large inequality in international and intranational energy footprints between income groups and across consumption categories Providing decent living with minimum energy: A global scenario The political economy of car dependence: A systems of provision approach Discourses of climate delay Your money or your life? The carbon-development paradox Youtube talks by Prof. Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Teachings by J-M Jancovici (in French): https://slides.pimoid.fr/jancovici/mines_2019/
- 44. Thank you for your attention! Emilia Suomalainen emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND