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Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows
   and Sustainable Resource Use
     Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and
           Space Life Support Systems

      Dissertation colloquium, University of Lausanne



            Emilia Suomalainen, PhD Candidate           9 July 2012
            IPTEH, FGSE, University of Lausanne
Presentation Outline
• Context
• Objectives & Research Questions
• Method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis
• Case Studies: Results & Recommendations
   – Regional Metabolism in the Canton of Geneva
      •   Copper
      •   Phosphorus
      •   Wood
      •   Lithium
   – Space Life Support Systems
• Conclusion


                       2                           9 July 2012
Background
• Resource scarcity and peaks
• Population growth & rising living standards
• Two aspects of sustainable resource use:
   1. Environmental impacts
   2. Depletion issues
   => This work focuses on quantitative depletion/scarcity issues
• Case studies
   1. Regional metabolism: Canton of Geneva
   2. Space life support systems (LSSs)




                      3                                             9 July 2012
Institutional Context
• Canton of Geneva
  – Law on public action for sustainable development (2001):
    industrial ecology principles
  – Article 12 on natural resources: reduction of consumption &
    dependence
  – Ecosite working group
• European Space Agency
  – ALISSE project: evaluator for space life support systems
  – „Sustainability laboratory‟ => Lessons for terrestrial systems?




                     4                                            9 July 2012
Objectives
• Objective: to study resource use and its sustainability in
  a quantitative modelling perspective
   – Canton of Geneva: analyse the sustainability of chosen resources
     during the next few decades
   – Space life support systems: analyse resource use and its
     sustainability in LSSs => Terrestrial applications
• Goal: provide information for decision-making in order to
  prevent, or at least prepare for, future resource
  shortages




                      5                                          9 July 2012
Research Questions
• Canton of Geneva
   – What could be the evolution(s) of resource use?
   – Is the resource use sustainable?
   – What strategies would allow to achieve a (more) sustainable
     situation?
• Space life support systems
   – How to evaluate the sustainability of space LSSs?
   – What types of indicators can be used?
   – How to compare different LSSs?




                      6                                            9 July 2012
Modelling Methods
• Existing methodologies:
   – Material Flow Analysis (MFA), static & dynamic
   – Life Cycle Assessment
   – Other methods (system dynamics, etc.)
• Chosen method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis
   – Quantitative
   – Dynamic
   – Adapted to regional scale




                      7                               9 July 2012
Dynamic Material Flow Analysis
• Dynamic MFA model types
   – Flow-driven vs. stock-based models
   – Delay vs. leaching models


• Behaviour of the model:
   – Basic hypothesis: total consumption = per capita consumption
     (constant) * population (function of time)
   – Parameters: residence times in economic sectors, recycling rates,
     etc.
• Modelling tool (Canton of Geneva): Scilab




                     8                                          9 July 2012
Model Results = Predictions?
• Not a prediction but an illustration of possible future
  trajectories
   – “Examination of a set of „what if‟ hypotheses”
   – Emphasis on system behaviour
   – Example: Limits to Growth (World2) model
• Prediction involves a notion of probability (what is likely
  to happen in the future)
   – Accurate initial data
   – Uncertainty analysis




                      9                                 9 July 2012
Presentation Outline
• Context
• Objective & Research Questions
• Method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis
• Case Studies: Results & Recommendations
   – Canton of Geneva
      •   Copper
      •   Phosphorus
      •   Wood
      •   Lithium
   – Space Life Support Systems
• Conclusion


                       10                   9 July 2012
Geneva Case Studies
• 3 quantitative case studies:
   – Copper (bulk metal)
   – Phosphorus (agricultural nutrient)
   – Wood (renewable resource)
• 1 qualitative study:
   – Lithium (critical metal) in electric mobility perspective
• ‘Business as Usual’ scenarios + alternative scenarios
• Simulation time: 2000/2006–2080
• Study includes both raw materials and resources
  incorporated in various products
   – Only direct flows taken into account


                       11                                        9 July 2012
Geneva Case Studies: Initial Data
• Copper
  – Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003): MFA in Geneva
• Phosphorus
  – FOEN (2009) for Switzerland => normalized to Geneva
• Wood
  – Waste flows: Faessler et al. (2010)
  – Sectorial parameters: Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003)
• Lithium
  – Geneva & Swiss Federal Statistics Offices, USGS




                    12                                       9 July 2012
Copper System

  Canton of Geneva



Imports                  Landfilled    Landfills
             Economic
             Sectors &
            Households
  Exports                         Recycled         Recycling




                   13                                  9 July 2012
Copper: ‘Business as Usual’



                      Flows:
                      imports
                      exports
                      landfills
                      recycling




      14                          9 July 2012
Copper: ‘Building Waste Recycling’

                            Flows:
                            imports
                            exports
                            landfills
                            recycling



                      Hypothesis: recycling rate
                      in buildings & construction
                      increases from 75% to
                      90%




         15                                9 July 2012
Copper: ‘Substitution in Roofing’

                            Flows:
                            imports
                            exports
                            landfills
                            recycling



                      Hypothesis: 100%
                      substitution of copper in
                      roofing and guttering




         16                                9 July 2012
Copper: ‘Transition to E-Mobility’

                            Flows:
                            imports
                            exports
                            landfills
                            recycling



                      Hypothesis: 100%
                      transition to electric
                      mobility




         17                                    9 July 2012
Copper: ‘No Primary Copper’

                       Flows:
                       imports
                       exports
                       landfills
                       recycling



                  Hypothesis: net copper
                  imports = recycled copper
                  (primary copper
                  consumption = 0)




      18                             9 July 2012
Copper: Recommendations
• Development of substitutes?
  ‒ But: environmental impacts (e.g. aluminium)
• Increased recycling?
  ‒ Difficult (and costly) if recycling rate is already 80%
  ‒ Recycling done abroad
  => Does not increase autarky in the Canton?
 Decreasing consumption?
  ‒ Lessens dependence in quantitative terms, but does not remove it




                      19                                       9 July 2012
Phosphorus System
    Canton of Geneva


                         Landfilled   Landfills
Imports

             Economic
                         Recycled     Recycling
             Sectors &
            Households
  Exports                        Exports          Recycling

                          Water        Water
                         systems      Systems



                 20                                   9 July 2012
Phosphorus: ‘Business as Usual’



                      Flows:
                      imports
                      exports
                      landfills
                      recycling
                      exports (recycling)
                      water systems




       21                                   9 July 2012
Phosphorus: ‘Sewage Sludge’

                      Flows:
                      imports
                      exports
                      landfills
                      recycling
                      exports (recycling)
                      water systems


                  Hypothesis: sewage
                  sludge used as fertilizer,
                  efficiency 40%




     22                                     9 July 2012
Phosphorus: ‘Meat and Bone Meal’

                         Flows:
                         imports
                         exports
                         landfills
                         recycling
                         exports (recycling)
                         water systems


                     Hypothesis: meat and
                     bone meal used as
                     fertilizer, efficiency 40%




        23                                     9 July 2012
Phosphorus: ‘Green Waste’

                    Flows:
                    imports
                    exports
                    landfills
                    recycling
                    exports (recycling)
                    water systems


                 Hypothesis: recycling rate
                 of green waste increases
                 from 55% to over 80%




    24                                    9 July 2012
Phosphorus: ‘Urine Recycling’

                      Flows:
                      imports
                      exports
                      landfills
                      recycling
                      exports (recycling)
                      water systems


                   Hypothesis: urine
                   recycling providing 0.5
                   kgP/year/inhabitant




      25                                    9 July 2012
Phosphorus: Recommendations

• Goal: more recycling, reduction of dissipation
   – Current recycling rate only 16%
   – Annual increase of stock in landfills = 80% of net imports
• Sewage sludge: problematic heavy metal content
• Urine recycling: promising for closing the loop
   – Health impacts, acceptability?
• Recommendation: study urine recycling (and the use of
  sewage sludge)
• New technological solutions?
  ‒ E.g. phosphorus capture from water




                      26                                          9 July 2012
Wood System

Canton of Geneva


                Economic
 Imports        Sectors &   Incine
                                       Incineration
               Households   ration


                    Wood             Exports          Recycling
  Forests          energy




                   27                                     9 July 2012
Wood: ‘Business as Usual’



                    Flows:
                    imports
                    forests
                    wood energy
                    incinerated
                    exports (recycling)




     28                               9 July 2012
Wood: ‘Potential’ Scenario
                      Flows:
                      imports
                      forests
                      wood energy
                      incinerated
                      exports (recycling)




                  Hypothesis: harvests in
                  the Canton increase from
                  5.4 kt to 6.9 kt




     29                                 9 July 2012
Wood: Recommendations
• The Canton produces less than 7% of consumed wood
  => Dependence on wood imports
• Development of the resource in Geneva difficult
 Recommendation: develop local wood imports from the
  greater Geneva agglomeration
• No data on wood imports => Deduced from the waste
  flows
  ‒ Recommendation: collect more data on wood stocks and flows




                   30                                      9 July 2012
Lithium
• Lithium in the electric mobility (e-mobility) context
   – Circa 250,000 vehicles in the Canton => Replacement by EVs
     would require 980 t of lithium
   – Circa 5,000,000 motor vehicles in Switzerland => 21 kt of lithium
     (75% of the annual global production in 2010)
• Lithium sources
   – Imports: geopolitical issues?
   – Seawater: uneconomic because of its energy consumption
   – Recycling: currently almost inexistent




                     31                                          9 July 2012
Lithium: Recommendations
• Transition to e-mobility would increase lithium demand
  dramatically
• Recommendation: introduce recycling measures to
  save „easy‟ resources
   – Federal/European level
• Diversification of solutions for energy storage?
• E-mobility part of a larger context of green mobility




                     32                                   9 July 2012
Presentation Outline
• Context
• Objective & Research Questions
• Method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis
• Case Studies: Results & Recommendations
   – Canton of Geneva
      •   Copper
      •   Phosphorus
      •   Wood
      •   Lithium
   – Space Life Support Systems
• Conclusion


                       33                   9 July 2012
Space Life Support Systems
• LSSs: systems providing
  the crew of a spacecraft
  with the necessary
  metabolic consumables
  during a space mission
• Here focus on two air
  revitalization systems:
   – ARES (chemico-technical
     system, crew of 7, one year)
   – BIORAT (biological system,
     2 mice, 1 month)




                     34               9 July 2012
Space Life Support Systems (2)
• Approach:
   1. Define a generic stock and flow model for LSSs
   2. Establish MFAs for ARES and BIORAT
   3. Define sustainability indicators for LSSs
   4. Build a simulation model


• Simulation model in Excel
   – Design parameters & system equations => Values of stocks and
     flows
   – Reference mission




                     35                                      9 July 2012
Space Life Support Systems (3)
• Indicators:
   – Direct material input
   – Total mass of the system
   – Total energy consumption
   – Material use efficiency
   – Recovery rate of used
     products
   – Waste intensity
   – Etc.




                    36                  9 July 2012
Comparison of ARES & BIORAT
• BIORAT better at
  recycling
• But: for the same
  amount of O2, its
  energy consumption
  = 10 x ARES
• The systems are
  dimensioned very
  differently, is
  comparison
  meaningful?


                 37                 9 July 2012
Space LSSs:
      Lessons for Terrestrial Systems
• Exemplary systems in terms of resource optimization
   – Engineered systems with circular design
=> Models for quasi-circular terrestrial systems
• Different constraints and issues than in terrestrial
  systems
   – Fixed resource stock vs. changing resource imports
   – Mass vs. economic, social, etc. considerations
   => No help for solving bigger-picture issues




                     38                                   9 July 2012
Conclusion
• Resource use was studied with a modelling approach at
  regional level and in space life support systems
   – First dynamic look at resource metabolism in Geneva
   – First attempt to evaluate and compare LSSs in terms of
     sustainability
• Advantages of the modelling approach:
   – Quantitative results
   – Possibility to compare scenarios, analyse the continuation of
     current trends
   – Sheds light on long-term phenomena, accumulation, feedbacks,
     etc.




                     39                                        9 July 2012
Conclusion (2)
• Limitations of the approach:
   – Economic factors not taken into account
   – Environmental impacts not taken into account
   – Global resource availability not taken into account
• Possible future directions:
   –   Study more resources?
   –   Develop the model further?
   –   More accurate initial data (static MFAs)?
   –   Include economic factors / environmental impacts?
   –   LSS: dynamics, complete LSS?




                       40                                  9 July 2012
Thank you for your attention!




       41                       9 July 2012
APPENDICES

     42      9 July 2012
Dynamic MFA (2)
• System
  definition (stock
  and flow diagram)
  for copper
  => System of
  equations




              Basic
              hypothesis
                            Parameters




                       43                9 July 2012
Geneva Case Studies (2)
• Copper:
   – Widely used metal, variety of applications
   – Exponentially growing global demand (4%/year)
• Phosphorus:
   – Vital to agriculture => Food security
   – Peak of phosphate rock in 2030?
• Lithium:
   – Few highly concentrated sources
   – Essential in a transition to electric mobility
• Wood:
   – Widely used renewable resource
   – Sustainable energy resource

                      44                              9 July 2012
Copper: Introduction
• The third most used
  metal in the world (after
  iron and aluminium)
• Uses: construction &
  buildings,
  telecommunications,
  transports, electric and
  electronic appliances, etc.
• Major producers: Chile,
  United States, Peru, China
• The global consumption is
  growing exponentially (4%
  per year)




                       45               9 July 2012
Copper Metabolism in Geneva
• Material flow analysis
  for year 2000 (Faist
  Emmenegger et al,
  2003)
   – Apparent consumption
     7.9 kg per capita
   – In-use stocks 220 kg
     per capita
   – Recycling efficiency
     rate 81%
   – Recycling input rate
     53%




                    46               9 July 2012
Copper: Scenarios
1. „Business as Usual‟
    –   The per capita consumption remains constant (7.9 kg/person/year)
2. „90% recycling of Building Waste‟ scenario
    –   The recycling rate in buildings was 75% in 2000
3. „Substitution of Copper in Roofing and Guttering‟ scenario
    –   Roofs and gutters are responsible for 41% of copper use in buildings (buildings
        correspond to 48% of total use)

4. „Transition to Electric Mobility‟ scenario
    –   The quantity of copper in EVs is the double of the quantity in ICE vehicles
5. „No Primary Copper‟ scenario
    –   The net imports in the Canton equal zero

Data source: Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003)




                            47                                                       9 July 2012
Copper: Simulation Results
• Business as Usual: consumption increases by nearly 20%
  by 2030 and by 50% by 2080
• More potential for consumption reduction via substitution
  than via recycling (but: environmental impacts?)
   – The recycling rate is already ca. 80%
• Transition to e-mobility would increase the annual
  consumption by only 5% (compared to BaU)
• „No primary copper‟ scenario: net imports would have to
  decrease by 60% by 2080




                     48                                9 July 2012
Copper: Simulation Results
             Flows vs. Stocks
                           primary sector
                           secondary sector
                           tertiary sector
                           households
   imports                 landfills
   exports
   landfills
   recycling




             Business as Usual

        49                                    9 July 2012
Copper: Simulation Results (2)


 Business as        Recycling
 Usual                                   Substitution




                      No Primary   Flows:
E-Mobility            Copper       imports
                                   exports
                                   landfills
                                   recycling



               50                              9 July 2012
Copper: Simulation Results (3)




Business as Usual   Recycling           Substitution



                    No Primary   Stocks:
                    Copper       primary sector
                                 secondary sector
                                 tertiatry sector
E-Mobility                       households
                                 landfills


             51                              9 July 2012
Phosphorus: Introduction
• Indispensable in agriculture
  (fertilizers, animal feed) which
  represents 90% of global
  demand => An essential
  element for food security

• The primary source of
  phosphorus: phosphate rock

• Major producers: China,
  United States, Marocco
  (Western Sahara), Russia
  => ¾ of the world production       • The peak of phosphate in 2030?
                                       (Cordell et al 2009)

                                     • Dissipative use => eutrophication


                         52                                       9 July 2012
Phosphorus: Scenarios
1. „Business as Usual‟
   – The net consumption per capita remains constant (1.3 kg/an)

Three FOEN scenarios for closing the phosphorus loop:
2. „Use of Sewadge Sludge as Fertilizer‟ scenario
   – Efficiency of sewadge sludge as fertilizer 40%
3. „Use of Meat and Bone Meal as Fertilizer‟ scenario
   – Use of 40% MBM as fertilizer
4. „Increased Recycling of Green Waste‟ scenario
   – Recycling rate rises to 60% (at the moment 40% of organic waste are
     recycled in Geneva)

5. „Urine Recycling‟ scenario
   –   Recycling of human urine as fertilizer (0,5 kg/person/year)


                        53                                             9 July 2012
Phosphorus: Simulation Results

• FOEN scenarios: only the „Sewage sludge‟ scenario would
  bring a significant decrease in net imports (-16%)
• Urine recycling would allow to decrease net imports by
  more than 30% and slow down dissipation
   – Currently only 16% of phosphorus waste is recycled
   – Annual increase of stock in landfills represents 80% of net imports
     => Fundamentally non-sustainable




                      54                                          9 July 2012
Phosphorus: Simulation Results
              Flows vs. Stocks
                            primary sector
                            secondary sector
      imports               households
      exports               landfills
      landfills             water systems
      recycling
      water systems




              Business as Usual

         55                                    9 July 2012
Phosphorus: Simulation Results (2)




 Business as Usual        Sewage Sludge     Meat and Bone Meal

                                            Flows:
                                            imports
                                            exports
                                            landfills
                                            recycling
                                            exports (recycling)
                                            water systems
Green Waste               Urine Recycling

                     56                                   9 July 2012
Phosphorus: Simulation Results (3)




Business as Usual         Sewage Sludge    Meat and Bone Meal

                                           Stocks:
                                           primary sector
                                           secondary sector
                                           households
                                           landfills
                                           water systems
 Green Waste             Urine Recycling

                    57                                  9 July 2012
Wood: Introduction
• Forests cover 10% of the surface of the Canton
• The wood produced in the Canton is of mediocre quality and
  90% is used as wood energy
• Annual wood production 5,400 t => base case
• Unexploited potential of 1‟500 t (Faessler et al. 2010)
  => „Potential‟ scenario
• Principal uses: buildings & construction, furniture, packaging,
  energy (paper and cardborad excluded)
• The recycling rate of wood waste (non-energy uses) is ca.
  18%, the remainder is used for energy
• No reliable information on the wood imports to the Canton
  => the quantity is determined in function of the created waste

                     58                                       9 July 2012
Wood: Simulation Results
• Wood production in the Canton is 28% higher in the
  „Potential‟ scenario => Nevertheless, the total wood
  imports are less than 1% lower
   – According to the simulation, cantonal harvests represent currently
     less than 7% of the total consumption
• The wood consumption increases ca. 6 kt every 10 years
  => 140 kt in 2080 or +56% (90 kt in 2006)




                     59                                           9 July 2012
Wood: Simulation Results
                                Flows vs. Stocks
imports forests                               primary sector
wood energy incineration                      secondary sector
exports (recycling)                           tertiary sector households
                                              forests




                                Business as Usual

                           60                                              9 July 2012
Wood: Simulation Results (2)


                         Flows




Business as Usual                     Potential



                         Stocks




                    61                  9 July 2012
Lithium: Introduction
• Analysed in the context of a transition to electric mobility
  (Lithium-ion batteries are for the moment the best energy
  storage technology)
• Fairly abondant on Earth but few highly-concentrated and
  economically interesting sources
• 70% of reserves are controlled by Chile, Bolivia and Argentina
• Seawater represents and important source but very high in
  energy consumption (explored by Japan and South-Korea)
• The global demand could rise exponentially if the electric
  vehicle (EV) makes its breakthrough




                    62                                         9 July 2012
Resource Use Strategies
• Strategies for (more) sustainable resource use
   –   Efficiency
   –   Recycling (“closing the cycle”)
   –   Substitution
   –   Diminution of the per capita consumption
• The goal: absolute dematerialization or obtaning more
  services and goods from the same or lesser amount of
  materials (Erkman 2004)
• Population growth + stable per capita consumption
  => total consumption grows
   – Decrease of the per capita consumption or decrease of the
     population ?


                       63                                        9 July 2012

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Presentation - Dynamic modelling of material flows and sustainable resource use

  • 1. Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems Dissertation colloquium, University of Lausanne Emilia Suomalainen, PhD Candidate 9 July 2012 IPTEH, FGSE, University of Lausanne
  • 2. Presentation Outline • Context • Objectives & Research Questions • Method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis • Case Studies: Results & Recommendations – Regional Metabolism in the Canton of Geneva • Copper • Phosphorus • Wood • Lithium – Space Life Support Systems • Conclusion 2 9 July 2012
  • 3. Background • Resource scarcity and peaks • Population growth & rising living standards • Two aspects of sustainable resource use: 1. Environmental impacts 2. Depletion issues => This work focuses on quantitative depletion/scarcity issues • Case studies 1. Regional metabolism: Canton of Geneva 2. Space life support systems (LSSs) 3 9 July 2012
  • 4. Institutional Context • Canton of Geneva – Law on public action for sustainable development (2001): industrial ecology principles – Article 12 on natural resources: reduction of consumption & dependence – Ecosite working group • European Space Agency – ALISSE project: evaluator for space life support systems – „Sustainability laboratory‟ => Lessons for terrestrial systems? 4 9 July 2012
  • 5. Objectives • Objective: to study resource use and its sustainability in a quantitative modelling perspective – Canton of Geneva: analyse the sustainability of chosen resources during the next few decades – Space life support systems: analyse resource use and its sustainability in LSSs => Terrestrial applications • Goal: provide information for decision-making in order to prevent, or at least prepare for, future resource shortages 5 9 July 2012
  • 6. Research Questions • Canton of Geneva – What could be the evolution(s) of resource use? – Is the resource use sustainable? – What strategies would allow to achieve a (more) sustainable situation? • Space life support systems – How to evaluate the sustainability of space LSSs? – What types of indicators can be used? – How to compare different LSSs? 6 9 July 2012
  • 7. Modelling Methods • Existing methodologies: – Material Flow Analysis (MFA), static & dynamic – Life Cycle Assessment – Other methods (system dynamics, etc.) • Chosen method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis – Quantitative – Dynamic – Adapted to regional scale 7 9 July 2012
  • 8. Dynamic Material Flow Analysis • Dynamic MFA model types – Flow-driven vs. stock-based models – Delay vs. leaching models • Behaviour of the model: – Basic hypothesis: total consumption = per capita consumption (constant) * population (function of time) – Parameters: residence times in economic sectors, recycling rates, etc. • Modelling tool (Canton of Geneva): Scilab 8 9 July 2012
  • 9. Model Results = Predictions? • Not a prediction but an illustration of possible future trajectories – “Examination of a set of „what if‟ hypotheses” – Emphasis on system behaviour – Example: Limits to Growth (World2) model • Prediction involves a notion of probability (what is likely to happen in the future) – Accurate initial data – Uncertainty analysis 9 9 July 2012
  • 10. Presentation Outline • Context • Objective & Research Questions • Method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis • Case Studies: Results & Recommendations – Canton of Geneva • Copper • Phosphorus • Wood • Lithium – Space Life Support Systems • Conclusion 10 9 July 2012
  • 11. Geneva Case Studies • 3 quantitative case studies: – Copper (bulk metal) – Phosphorus (agricultural nutrient) – Wood (renewable resource) • 1 qualitative study: – Lithium (critical metal) in electric mobility perspective • ‘Business as Usual’ scenarios + alternative scenarios • Simulation time: 2000/2006–2080 • Study includes both raw materials and resources incorporated in various products – Only direct flows taken into account 11 9 July 2012
  • 12. Geneva Case Studies: Initial Data • Copper – Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003): MFA in Geneva • Phosphorus – FOEN (2009) for Switzerland => normalized to Geneva • Wood – Waste flows: Faessler et al. (2010) – Sectorial parameters: Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003) • Lithium – Geneva & Swiss Federal Statistics Offices, USGS 12 9 July 2012
  • 13. Copper System Canton of Geneva Imports Landfilled Landfills Economic Sectors & Households Exports Recycled Recycling 13 9 July 2012
  • 14. Copper: ‘Business as Usual’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling 14 9 July 2012
  • 15. Copper: ‘Building Waste Recycling’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling Hypothesis: recycling rate in buildings & construction increases from 75% to 90% 15 9 July 2012
  • 16. Copper: ‘Substitution in Roofing’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling Hypothesis: 100% substitution of copper in roofing and guttering 16 9 July 2012
  • 17. Copper: ‘Transition to E-Mobility’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling Hypothesis: 100% transition to electric mobility 17 9 July 2012
  • 18. Copper: ‘No Primary Copper’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling Hypothesis: net copper imports = recycled copper (primary copper consumption = 0) 18 9 July 2012
  • 19. Copper: Recommendations • Development of substitutes? ‒ But: environmental impacts (e.g. aluminium) • Increased recycling? ‒ Difficult (and costly) if recycling rate is already 80% ‒ Recycling done abroad => Does not increase autarky in the Canton?  Decreasing consumption? ‒ Lessens dependence in quantitative terms, but does not remove it 19 9 July 2012
  • 20. Phosphorus System Canton of Geneva Landfilled Landfills Imports Economic Recycled Recycling Sectors & Households Exports Exports Recycling Water Water systems Systems 20 9 July 2012
  • 21. Phosphorus: ‘Business as Usual’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling exports (recycling) water systems 21 9 July 2012
  • 22. Phosphorus: ‘Sewage Sludge’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling exports (recycling) water systems Hypothesis: sewage sludge used as fertilizer, efficiency 40% 22 9 July 2012
  • 23. Phosphorus: ‘Meat and Bone Meal’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling exports (recycling) water systems Hypothesis: meat and bone meal used as fertilizer, efficiency 40% 23 9 July 2012
  • 24. Phosphorus: ‘Green Waste’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling exports (recycling) water systems Hypothesis: recycling rate of green waste increases from 55% to over 80% 24 9 July 2012
  • 25. Phosphorus: ‘Urine Recycling’ Flows: imports exports landfills recycling exports (recycling) water systems Hypothesis: urine recycling providing 0.5 kgP/year/inhabitant 25 9 July 2012
  • 26. Phosphorus: Recommendations • Goal: more recycling, reduction of dissipation – Current recycling rate only 16% – Annual increase of stock in landfills = 80% of net imports • Sewage sludge: problematic heavy metal content • Urine recycling: promising for closing the loop – Health impacts, acceptability? • Recommendation: study urine recycling (and the use of sewage sludge) • New technological solutions? ‒ E.g. phosphorus capture from water 26 9 July 2012
  • 27. Wood System Canton of Geneva Economic Imports Sectors & Incine Incineration Households ration Wood Exports Recycling Forests energy 27 9 July 2012
  • 28. Wood: ‘Business as Usual’ Flows: imports forests wood energy incinerated exports (recycling) 28 9 July 2012
  • 29. Wood: ‘Potential’ Scenario Flows: imports forests wood energy incinerated exports (recycling) Hypothesis: harvests in the Canton increase from 5.4 kt to 6.9 kt 29 9 July 2012
  • 30. Wood: Recommendations • The Canton produces less than 7% of consumed wood => Dependence on wood imports • Development of the resource in Geneva difficult  Recommendation: develop local wood imports from the greater Geneva agglomeration • No data on wood imports => Deduced from the waste flows ‒ Recommendation: collect more data on wood stocks and flows 30 9 July 2012
  • 31. Lithium • Lithium in the electric mobility (e-mobility) context – Circa 250,000 vehicles in the Canton => Replacement by EVs would require 980 t of lithium – Circa 5,000,000 motor vehicles in Switzerland => 21 kt of lithium (75% of the annual global production in 2010) • Lithium sources – Imports: geopolitical issues? – Seawater: uneconomic because of its energy consumption – Recycling: currently almost inexistent 31 9 July 2012
  • 32. Lithium: Recommendations • Transition to e-mobility would increase lithium demand dramatically • Recommendation: introduce recycling measures to save „easy‟ resources – Federal/European level • Diversification of solutions for energy storage? • E-mobility part of a larger context of green mobility 32 9 July 2012
  • 33. Presentation Outline • Context • Objective & Research Questions • Method: Dynamic Material Flow Analysis • Case Studies: Results & Recommendations – Canton of Geneva • Copper • Phosphorus • Wood • Lithium – Space Life Support Systems • Conclusion 33 9 July 2012
  • 34. Space Life Support Systems • LSSs: systems providing the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables during a space mission • Here focus on two air revitalization systems: – ARES (chemico-technical system, crew of 7, one year) – BIORAT (biological system, 2 mice, 1 month) 34 9 July 2012
  • 35. Space Life Support Systems (2) • Approach: 1. Define a generic stock and flow model for LSSs 2. Establish MFAs for ARES and BIORAT 3. Define sustainability indicators for LSSs 4. Build a simulation model • Simulation model in Excel – Design parameters & system equations => Values of stocks and flows – Reference mission 35 9 July 2012
  • 36. Space Life Support Systems (3) • Indicators: – Direct material input – Total mass of the system – Total energy consumption – Material use efficiency – Recovery rate of used products – Waste intensity – Etc. 36 9 July 2012
  • 37. Comparison of ARES & BIORAT • BIORAT better at recycling • But: for the same amount of O2, its energy consumption = 10 x ARES • The systems are dimensioned very differently, is comparison meaningful? 37 9 July 2012
  • 38. Space LSSs: Lessons for Terrestrial Systems • Exemplary systems in terms of resource optimization – Engineered systems with circular design => Models for quasi-circular terrestrial systems • Different constraints and issues than in terrestrial systems – Fixed resource stock vs. changing resource imports – Mass vs. economic, social, etc. considerations => No help for solving bigger-picture issues 38 9 July 2012
  • 39. Conclusion • Resource use was studied with a modelling approach at regional level and in space life support systems – First dynamic look at resource metabolism in Geneva – First attempt to evaluate and compare LSSs in terms of sustainability • Advantages of the modelling approach: – Quantitative results – Possibility to compare scenarios, analyse the continuation of current trends – Sheds light on long-term phenomena, accumulation, feedbacks, etc. 39 9 July 2012
  • 40. Conclusion (2) • Limitations of the approach: – Economic factors not taken into account – Environmental impacts not taken into account – Global resource availability not taken into account • Possible future directions: – Study more resources? – Develop the model further? – More accurate initial data (static MFAs)? – Include economic factors / environmental impacts? – LSS: dynamics, complete LSS? 40 9 July 2012
  • 41. Thank you for your attention! 41 9 July 2012
  • 42. APPENDICES 42 9 July 2012
  • 43. Dynamic MFA (2) • System definition (stock and flow diagram) for copper => System of equations Basic hypothesis Parameters 43 9 July 2012
  • 44. Geneva Case Studies (2) • Copper: – Widely used metal, variety of applications – Exponentially growing global demand (4%/year) • Phosphorus: – Vital to agriculture => Food security – Peak of phosphate rock in 2030? • Lithium: – Few highly concentrated sources – Essential in a transition to electric mobility • Wood: – Widely used renewable resource – Sustainable energy resource 44 9 July 2012
  • 45. Copper: Introduction • The third most used metal in the world (after iron and aluminium) • Uses: construction & buildings, telecommunications, transports, electric and electronic appliances, etc. • Major producers: Chile, United States, Peru, China • The global consumption is growing exponentially (4% per year) 45 9 July 2012
  • 46. Copper Metabolism in Geneva • Material flow analysis for year 2000 (Faist Emmenegger et al, 2003) – Apparent consumption 7.9 kg per capita – In-use stocks 220 kg per capita – Recycling efficiency rate 81% – Recycling input rate 53% 46 9 July 2012
  • 47. Copper: Scenarios 1. „Business as Usual‟ – The per capita consumption remains constant (7.9 kg/person/year) 2. „90% recycling of Building Waste‟ scenario – The recycling rate in buildings was 75% in 2000 3. „Substitution of Copper in Roofing and Guttering‟ scenario – Roofs and gutters are responsible for 41% of copper use in buildings (buildings correspond to 48% of total use) 4. „Transition to Electric Mobility‟ scenario – The quantity of copper in EVs is the double of the quantity in ICE vehicles 5. „No Primary Copper‟ scenario – The net imports in the Canton equal zero Data source: Faist Emmenegger & Frischknect (2003) 47 9 July 2012
  • 48. Copper: Simulation Results • Business as Usual: consumption increases by nearly 20% by 2030 and by 50% by 2080 • More potential for consumption reduction via substitution than via recycling (but: environmental impacts?) – The recycling rate is already ca. 80% • Transition to e-mobility would increase the annual consumption by only 5% (compared to BaU) • „No primary copper‟ scenario: net imports would have to decrease by 60% by 2080 48 9 July 2012
  • 49. Copper: Simulation Results Flows vs. Stocks primary sector secondary sector tertiary sector households imports landfills exports landfills recycling Business as Usual 49 9 July 2012
  • 50. Copper: Simulation Results (2) Business as Recycling Usual Substitution No Primary Flows: E-Mobility Copper imports exports landfills recycling 50 9 July 2012
  • 51. Copper: Simulation Results (3) Business as Usual Recycling Substitution No Primary Stocks: Copper primary sector secondary sector tertiatry sector E-Mobility households landfills 51 9 July 2012
  • 52. Phosphorus: Introduction • Indispensable in agriculture (fertilizers, animal feed) which represents 90% of global demand => An essential element for food security • The primary source of phosphorus: phosphate rock • Major producers: China, United States, Marocco (Western Sahara), Russia => ¾ of the world production • The peak of phosphate in 2030? (Cordell et al 2009) • Dissipative use => eutrophication 52 9 July 2012
  • 53. Phosphorus: Scenarios 1. „Business as Usual‟ – The net consumption per capita remains constant (1.3 kg/an) Three FOEN scenarios for closing the phosphorus loop: 2. „Use of Sewadge Sludge as Fertilizer‟ scenario – Efficiency of sewadge sludge as fertilizer 40% 3. „Use of Meat and Bone Meal as Fertilizer‟ scenario – Use of 40% MBM as fertilizer 4. „Increased Recycling of Green Waste‟ scenario – Recycling rate rises to 60% (at the moment 40% of organic waste are recycled in Geneva) 5. „Urine Recycling‟ scenario – Recycling of human urine as fertilizer (0,5 kg/person/year) 53 9 July 2012
  • 54. Phosphorus: Simulation Results • FOEN scenarios: only the „Sewage sludge‟ scenario would bring a significant decrease in net imports (-16%) • Urine recycling would allow to decrease net imports by more than 30% and slow down dissipation – Currently only 16% of phosphorus waste is recycled – Annual increase of stock in landfills represents 80% of net imports => Fundamentally non-sustainable 54 9 July 2012
  • 55. Phosphorus: Simulation Results Flows vs. Stocks primary sector secondary sector imports households exports landfills landfills water systems recycling water systems Business as Usual 55 9 July 2012
  • 56. Phosphorus: Simulation Results (2) Business as Usual Sewage Sludge Meat and Bone Meal Flows: imports exports landfills recycling exports (recycling) water systems Green Waste Urine Recycling 56 9 July 2012
  • 57. Phosphorus: Simulation Results (3) Business as Usual Sewage Sludge Meat and Bone Meal Stocks: primary sector secondary sector households landfills water systems Green Waste Urine Recycling 57 9 July 2012
  • 58. Wood: Introduction • Forests cover 10% of the surface of the Canton • The wood produced in the Canton is of mediocre quality and 90% is used as wood energy • Annual wood production 5,400 t => base case • Unexploited potential of 1‟500 t (Faessler et al. 2010) => „Potential‟ scenario • Principal uses: buildings & construction, furniture, packaging, energy (paper and cardborad excluded) • The recycling rate of wood waste (non-energy uses) is ca. 18%, the remainder is used for energy • No reliable information on the wood imports to the Canton => the quantity is determined in function of the created waste 58 9 July 2012
  • 59. Wood: Simulation Results • Wood production in the Canton is 28% higher in the „Potential‟ scenario => Nevertheless, the total wood imports are less than 1% lower – According to the simulation, cantonal harvests represent currently less than 7% of the total consumption • The wood consumption increases ca. 6 kt every 10 years => 140 kt in 2080 or +56% (90 kt in 2006) 59 9 July 2012
  • 60. Wood: Simulation Results Flows vs. Stocks imports forests primary sector wood energy incineration secondary sector exports (recycling) tertiary sector households forests Business as Usual 60 9 July 2012
  • 61. Wood: Simulation Results (2) Flows Business as Usual Potential Stocks 61 9 July 2012
  • 62. Lithium: Introduction • Analysed in the context of a transition to electric mobility (Lithium-ion batteries are for the moment the best energy storage technology) • Fairly abondant on Earth but few highly-concentrated and economically interesting sources • 70% of reserves are controlled by Chile, Bolivia and Argentina • Seawater represents and important source but very high in energy consumption (explored by Japan and South-Korea) • The global demand could rise exponentially if the electric vehicle (EV) makes its breakthrough 62 9 July 2012
  • 63. Resource Use Strategies • Strategies for (more) sustainable resource use – Efficiency – Recycling (“closing the cycle”) – Substitution – Diminution of the per capita consumption • The goal: absolute dematerialization or obtaning more services and goods from the same or lesser amount of materials (Erkman 2004) • Population growth + stable per capita consumption => total consumption grows – Decrease of the per capita consumption or decrease of the population ? 63 9 July 2012