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Transport and Mobility
Fact or Fiction – Part 2
Emilia Suomalainen
emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA-NC
Contents
A brief history of transport and mobility
Transport facts: mode share and emissions
The case of cars
Theory: transport and mobility
Transport and inequality
Economy, energy and transport
The big picture
Transport – A Bit of
Theory
A few key concepts
Transport vs. Mobility
Transport: focus on the transport system
Point of view of the operator, planning authority, city, municipality
Engineering, traffic planning, infrastructure, road construction, vehicles, routes,
network, …
Mobility: focus on the service
Point of view of the user
User needs and access to services (jobs, schools, shopping, recreation, health
services, culture, …)
User-friendliness, integration, digital tools, MAAS, …
Multi- vs. Intermodality
Multimodality: use of several
different means of transport on a
regular basis
Intermodality: combination of
several different means of
transport during the same journey
http://geoconfluences.ens-lyon.fr/informations-scientifiques/a-la-une/notion-a-la-une/notion-a-la-une-intermodalite
Altermobilities
Alternative modes of transport
Especially alternatives to private car and to motorised modes
Soft modes, non-motorised modes, sustainable mobility, active travel
Also so-called “new mobilities”
Beware of environmental impacts, see eg. https://www.itf-oecd.org/good-to-go-
environmental-performance-new-mobility
Cf. https://en.forumviesmobiles.org/marks/altermobilities-449
Kaya Identity
The “Kaya Identity” or decomposition analysis of emissions:
CO2 = population * GDP/population * energy/GDP * CO2/energy
Applied to transport emissions:
This same idea is sometimes presented (eg. IEA, Lee Schipper) as:
Emissions = Activity * Structure * Intensity * Fuel = ASIF
Hierarchy: Avoid – Shift – Improve
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330079325_Transport_and_Climate_Change_2018_-_Global_Status_Report/figures
Zahavi’s Conjecture
Observation from the 1970s
Yacov Zahavi, http://www.surveyarchive.org/zahavi.html
The travel time budget of everyday mobility stays (approximately) constant
Consequence: faster transport systems => people travel further
Zahavi’s Conjecture Evolution since 1800s
in France
Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/travail-de-these-decarboner-transports-dici-2050/
Rebound Effect
“Jevons Paradox”: technological progress increases resource use efficiency – the
consumption of the resource rises due to increasing demand
Stanley Jevons, 1865: “The Coal Question”
Solution: efficiency gains paired with
government intervention that reduces
demand (eg. fuel tax)?
Induced Traffic
Paradox: increasing roadway capacity does not reduce congestion in the long run =>
induced traffic
Effect recognised since the 1930s
The opposite also exists: disappearing traffic or traffic evaporation
Externalities
An externality is the cost or benefit that is imposed on a third party who did not agree
to incur that cost or benefit
Concept developed by Arthur Pigou in the 1920s
There are many negative externalities related to transport: air pollution, GHG
emissions, congestion, noise, road accidents, …
Also positive externalities (notably for active mobility)
Transport is a Derived Demand
Transport allows people to access services, activities and opportunities
Transport is seldom a finality in itself, but rather a means to an end
But: Zahavi’s conjecture (constant travel time budget) and rebound effects
Chosen vs. constrained mobility
Eg. holiday or week-end trips vs. commuting
Choice of mode of transport depends on cost but also travel time, convenience,
perceived safety, …
Mobility and Our Lifestyles
Transport demand is closely linked to our lifestyles
Developed vs. developing country
Category of population: active, inactive, student, retiree; age, gender, income, family
size, …
Urban, suburban, rural environment
Urban density (North America vs. Europe vs. Asia)
Available public transport
Car ownership depends on all the above
Urban Density vs. Emissions
https://www.climate-chance.org/comprendre-observatoire/bilan-mondial-de-laction-climat-par-secteur-2020/
Vehicle Ownership – Example
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46523642_Vehicle_Ownership_and_Income_Growth_Worldwide_1960-2030/figures
Vehicle Ownership – Example
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46523642_Vehicle_Ownership_and_Income_Growth_Worldwide_1960-2030/figures
Transport Demand Elasticities
Transport demand fairly inelastic to fuel price in the short run
A large number of constrained trips
More elastic in the long run
Buy a smaller, more fuel-efficient car, etc.
Elasticity of demand to fuel price also depends on the income level
NB: elasticities differ from country to country, one income class to another, they can
be asymmetrical, change in time, depend on the price level, etc.
Cf. https://trid.trb.org/view/1143570
Fuel Price Elasticities – Example
https://trid.trb.org/view/1143570
Fuel Price vs. Transport Energy Use
https://trid.trb.org/view/1143570
Travel Demand vs. GDP
Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/travail-de-these-decarboner-transports-dici-2050/
Transport and Inequality
Inequalities across and within countries
Transport and Inequality
Oswald et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0579-8
Transport and Inequality
Ivanova and Wood 2020, https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.12
The Case of Aviation
https://theicct.org/blog/staff/not-every-tonne-of-aviation-CO2
The Case of Aviation
https://theicct.org/blog/staff/should-you-be-ashamed-flying-probably-not
The Case of Aviation
Gössling and Humpe 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102194
Transport and Gender
Women often drive less => more car use as passenger, more public transport and walking
They also have less road accidents (less risky driving behaviours)
But are more likely to be injured
Women often have more complex travel patterns (multiple stops and trip purposes)
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/urban-transport-mobility-women/
Safety concerns more important
Relatively few women are employed in the transport sector
22% in the EU, https://www.itf-oecd.org/itf-work-gender-transport
Access to transport important for equal opportunities
Transport and Age
Age has an impact on travel distances and modes
Young retirees travel more than before, often by car
Car ownership rises with age (linked to income)
Older seniors use less active travel
Adaptation of transport systems to the elderly key with aging populations
A challenge for not just motorised transport but also pedestrian infrastructure
Potential market for autonomous vehicles (AV)
Energy, Economy and
Transport
Linkages and decoupling
Questions to be answered:
What happens when countries get richer, is there a plateau of transport demand?
Has there been a decoupling of transport, its energy use and emissions?
Decarbonisation in Theory
http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/scenarios-decarbonation-transports-2050/
Decarbonisation in Theory
http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/scenarios-decarbonation-transports-2050/
Passenger Transport and GDP
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/trends-in-passenger-transport-demand-7#tab-chart_1
Freight Transport and GDP
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/freight-transport-volumes-and-gdp-7#tab-chart_4
Growth in Pax Transport vs. GDP
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/correlation-in-growth-of-passenger-transport-vs-gdp-growth
Growth in Freight vs. GDP
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/correlation-of-growth-of-freight-transport-vs-gdp-growth
PKT vs. GDP per Capita
https://twitter.com/Sonia_Yeh/status/1333537917973753864/photo/1
Not Just a Transport
Issue
The big picture
Oil Production vs. GDP
https://slides.pimoid.fr/jancovici/mines_2019/
Observed Decreases in CO2 Emissions
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18922-7
Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis
Liu et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18922-7
Key Points
Road traffic is responsible for a lion’s share of emissions
Both pax and freight transport need to be decarbonised
Also many other negative externalities, notably air pollution
Efficiency improvements alone are not enough
Avoid – shift – improve hierarchy => need to decrease the number of trips and
encourage more sustainable transport modes
Historically only relative decoupling of energy use and emissions
Absolute decrease in emissions required
Thank you for your
attention!
Emilia Suomalainen
emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com
Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND

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Transport and Mobility - Fact and Fiction - Part 2

  • 1. Transport and Mobility Fact or Fiction – Part 2 Emilia Suomalainen emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-SA-NC
  • 2. Contents A brief history of transport and mobility Transport facts: mode share and emissions The case of cars Theory: transport and mobility Transport and inequality Economy, energy and transport The big picture
  • 3. Transport – A Bit of Theory A few key concepts
  • 4. Transport vs. Mobility Transport: focus on the transport system Point of view of the operator, planning authority, city, municipality Engineering, traffic planning, infrastructure, road construction, vehicles, routes, network, … Mobility: focus on the service Point of view of the user User needs and access to services (jobs, schools, shopping, recreation, health services, culture, …) User-friendliness, integration, digital tools, MAAS, …
  • 5. Multi- vs. Intermodality Multimodality: use of several different means of transport on a regular basis Intermodality: combination of several different means of transport during the same journey http://geoconfluences.ens-lyon.fr/informations-scientifiques/a-la-une/notion-a-la-une/notion-a-la-une-intermodalite
  • 6. Altermobilities Alternative modes of transport Especially alternatives to private car and to motorised modes Soft modes, non-motorised modes, sustainable mobility, active travel Also so-called “new mobilities” Beware of environmental impacts, see eg. https://www.itf-oecd.org/good-to-go- environmental-performance-new-mobility Cf. https://en.forumviesmobiles.org/marks/altermobilities-449
  • 7. Kaya Identity The “Kaya Identity” or decomposition analysis of emissions: CO2 = population * GDP/population * energy/GDP * CO2/energy Applied to transport emissions: This same idea is sometimes presented (eg. IEA, Lee Schipper) as: Emissions = Activity * Structure * Intensity * Fuel = ASIF
  • 8. Hierarchy: Avoid – Shift – Improve https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330079325_Transport_and_Climate_Change_2018_-_Global_Status_Report/figures
  • 9. Zahavi’s Conjecture Observation from the 1970s Yacov Zahavi, http://www.surveyarchive.org/zahavi.html The travel time budget of everyday mobility stays (approximately) constant Consequence: faster transport systems => people travel further
  • 10. Zahavi’s Conjecture Evolution since 1800s in France Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/travail-de-these-decarboner-transports-dici-2050/
  • 11. Rebound Effect “Jevons Paradox”: technological progress increases resource use efficiency – the consumption of the resource rises due to increasing demand Stanley Jevons, 1865: “The Coal Question” Solution: efficiency gains paired with government intervention that reduces demand (eg. fuel tax)?
  • 12. Induced Traffic Paradox: increasing roadway capacity does not reduce congestion in the long run => induced traffic Effect recognised since the 1930s The opposite also exists: disappearing traffic or traffic evaporation
  • 13. Externalities An externality is the cost or benefit that is imposed on a third party who did not agree to incur that cost or benefit Concept developed by Arthur Pigou in the 1920s There are many negative externalities related to transport: air pollution, GHG emissions, congestion, noise, road accidents, … Also positive externalities (notably for active mobility)
  • 14. Transport is a Derived Demand Transport allows people to access services, activities and opportunities Transport is seldom a finality in itself, but rather a means to an end But: Zahavi’s conjecture (constant travel time budget) and rebound effects Chosen vs. constrained mobility Eg. holiday or week-end trips vs. commuting Choice of mode of transport depends on cost but also travel time, convenience, perceived safety, …
  • 15. Mobility and Our Lifestyles Transport demand is closely linked to our lifestyles Developed vs. developing country Category of population: active, inactive, student, retiree; age, gender, income, family size, … Urban, suburban, rural environment Urban density (North America vs. Europe vs. Asia) Available public transport Car ownership depends on all the above
  • 16. Urban Density vs. Emissions https://www.climate-chance.org/comprendre-observatoire/bilan-mondial-de-laction-climat-par-secteur-2020/
  • 17. Vehicle Ownership – Example https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46523642_Vehicle_Ownership_and_Income_Growth_Worldwide_1960-2030/figures
  • 18. Vehicle Ownership – Example https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46523642_Vehicle_Ownership_and_Income_Growth_Worldwide_1960-2030/figures
  • 19. Transport Demand Elasticities Transport demand fairly inelastic to fuel price in the short run A large number of constrained trips More elastic in the long run Buy a smaller, more fuel-efficient car, etc. Elasticity of demand to fuel price also depends on the income level NB: elasticities differ from country to country, one income class to another, they can be asymmetrical, change in time, depend on the price level, etc. Cf. https://trid.trb.org/view/1143570
  • 20. Fuel Price Elasticities – Example https://trid.trb.org/view/1143570
  • 21. Fuel Price vs. Transport Energy Use https://trid.trb.org/view/1143570
  • 22. Travel Demand vs. GDP Aurélien Bigo 2020, http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/publications/travail-de-these-decarboner-transports-dici-2050/
  • 23. Transport and Inequality Inequalities across and within countries
  • 24. Transport and Inequality Oswald et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0579-8
  • 25. Transport and Inequality Ivanova and Wood 2020, https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.12
  • 26. The Case of Aviation https://theicct.org/blog/staff/not-every-tonne-of-aviation-CO2
  • 27. The Case of Aviation https://theicct.org/blog/staff/should-you-be-ashamed-flying-probably-not
  • 28. The Case of Aviation Gössling and Humpe 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102194
  • 29. Transport and Gender Women often drive less => more car use as passenger, more public transport and walking They also have less road accidents (less risky driving behaviours) But are more likely to be injured Women often have more complex travel patterns (multiple stops and trip purposes) https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/urban-transport-mobility-women/ Safety concerns more important Relatively few women are employed in the transport sector 22% in the EU, https://www.itf-oecd.org/itf-work-gender-transport Access to transport important for equal opportunities
  • 30. Transport and Age Age has an impact on travel distances and modes Young retirees travel more than before, often by car Car ownership rises with age (linked to income) Older seniors use less active travel Adaptation of transport systems to the elderly key with aging populations A challenge for not just motorised transport but also pedestrian infrastructure Potential market for autonomous vehicles (AV)
  • 32. Questions to be answered: What happens when countries get richer, is there a plateau of transport demand? Has there been a decoupling of transport, its energy use and emissions?
  • 35. Passenger Transport and GDP https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/trends-in-passenger-transport-demand-7#tab-chart_1
  • 36. Freight Transport and GDP https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/daviz/freight-transport-volumes-and-gdp-7#tab-chart_4
  • 37. Growth in Pax Transport vs. GDP https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/correlation-in-growth-of-passenger-transport-vs-gdp-growth
  • 38. Growth in Freight vs. GDP https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/correlation-of-growth-of-freight-transport-vs-gdp-growth
  • 39. PKT vs. GDP per Capita https://twitter.com/Sonia_Yeh/status/1333537917973753864/photo/1
  • 40. Not Just a Transport Issue The big picture
  • 41. Oil Production vs. GDP https://slides.pimoid.fr/jancovici/mines_2019/
  • 42. Observed Decreases in CO2 Emissions https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18922-7
  • 43. Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis Liu et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18922-7
  • 44. Key Points Road traffic is responsible for a lion’s share of emissions Both pax and freight transport need to be decarbonised Also many other negative externalities, notably air pollution Efficiency improvements alone are not enough Avoid – shift – improve hierarchy => need to decrease the number of trips and encourage more sustainable transport modes Historically only relative decoupling of energy use and emissions Absolute decrease in emissions required
  • 45. Thank you for your attention! Emilia Suomalainen emilia.suomalainen@gmail.com Cette photo par Auteur inconnu est soumise à la licence CC BY-NC-ND