Toronto HPI - Oct 2017

Toronto MLS®
Home Price Index
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
REALTOR®
Witches’ House
by André Carrotflower
Oct
2017

Toronto Real Estate
Introduction
Average prices hide a lot of information and are subject to volatility. What if a higher
ratio of condos sold last month? Average prices can change if no underlaying prices
changes at all changed but just the mix changed. What if a few $10 million homes sold
last month? That would skew the average as well.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was created to be a more apples-to-apples look at
changes in average price. Like the CPI features a basket of goods that remains
constant, the HPI uses “benchmark” homes that feature a basket of attributes that
remain constant. Then it tracks the prices of just those homes over time, so the effects
of mix changes are minimized.
Here’s an introduction to the HPI if you’d like a bit more background information.

Comparison of YoY price increases
century21.ca/scott.ingram
You’ll notice the black line (416 average price) is more volatile than the HPI. It has reached lower
lows (including a couple of negative dips) and higher highs than the orange HPI composite line.
The average is more susceptible to fluctuations in mix. For example, March 2017 sales were 49%
detached, while Sept 2017 was down to 26% detached – lower than the 31% last year.
27.7%
13.3%
28.5%
6.3%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 housing – YoY price increases
HPI Composite 416 Average Price

416 HPI - Composite
(MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes,
including freeholds and condos)
Oct vs. ‘16: $84K
Oct vs. ‘12: $287K (57%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 9.4%
- First month up since May
- NB: The percentage numbers above may not match
percentage change you would calculate from the
numbers at left. Numbers at left were taken from
static reports at time of issue and some percentages
at right are be based off restated prior year numbers
(when adjustments to benchmark homes or
composite weighting are made).
617 621 634 647
666 676 682 685 691
706 714 720
720
737
779
817 830 830
808
790 788 790
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8.4% 8.6%
9.3% 9.9%
11.7%
12.7%
13.4%13.5%13.8%
15.8%
16.5%
17.6%
18.9%
19.9%
24.1%
27.7%
26.1%
24.2%
20.1%
16.7%
15.3%
13.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 HPI Composite vs. Components
(MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes,
including freeholds and condos)
As you would expect, the HPI Composite sits in between its component benchmarks.
Notably, this is the first time since the launch in 2012 that apartments are above single family
detached houses.
13.3%
3.9%
6.0%
15.5%
24.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
416 housing – YoY HPI benchmark price increases
HPI Composite SF Detached SF Attached Townhouse Apartment

416 HPI – Single Family Detached
(MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value
of that basket of attributes over time)
Oct vs. ‘16: $68K
Oct vs. ‘12: $415K (62%)
Sep HPI $200K lower than average 416 Detached price
of $1,288K
Sep HPI YoY increase is positive, while average 416
Detached YoY change is negative 1.1%
876 878
898
924
961
982 989 991 1,000
1,020 1,032 1,039
1,076
1,106
1,172
1,2261,229
1,205
1,146
1,1001,0941,088
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
11.3%
10.5%11.1%
12.3%
15.3%
17.1%17.2%17.3%17.3%
19.2%
20.0%20.2%
21.7%
23.3%
27.7%
29.7%
24.8%
19.8%
13.1%
8.2%
6.6%
3.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 HPI – Single Family Attached
Oct vs. ‘16: $65K
Oct vs. ‘12: $303K (56%)
SF Attached includes freehold semi-detached and
rowhouses.
680 689 702
718
745
760 764 762 762
779 791 799
820 834
878
920 928 919
879
850 845 844
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8.8% 9.3%
10.3%
11.3%
13.4%
14.9%15.1%15.1%14.9%
16.6%
17.4%
18.1%
18.4%18.6%
22.5%
25.1%
22.1%
18.6%
12.9%
9.3% 8.7%
6.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 HPI – Townhouse
Oct vs. ‘16: $81K
Oct vs. ‘12: $241K (66%)
Townhouse includes condo townhouses. “Owners
typically pay co-ownership fees for maintenance and
enjoy exclusive access to a part of the lot”
455 453 465 474
490 494 501 509 515 524 531 534
543 543
568
602
628 631 633 624
609 605
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
10.1% 9.5%
10.5%
11.8%
13.4%13.4%13.3%
14.7%
15.9%
17.5%
18.5%
19.4%
20.7%
18.6%
21.3%
26.1%
27.1%27.0%26.5%
22.9%
18.0%
15.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 HPI – Apartment
Oct vs. ‘16: $97K
Oct vs. ‘12: $178K (58%)
Apartment includes condo apartments
- The 2016 and 2017 growth rates are very out of
character
346 349 355 359 364 366 371 375 380 388 392 397
405 417
441
464 478 485 481 478 480 485
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
4.9%
5.9%
6.8% 6.4% 6.9% 7.2%
8.5% 8.9%
10.0%
12.0%
12.9%
14.8%
18.0%
19.4%
24.0%
29.2%
31.0%
32.2%
29.4%
27.4%
26.0%
24.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both
quantitative and qualitative trends – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market.
After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music
communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown
knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the
venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:

Toronto HPI - Oct 2017

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