Many were expecting September to have a big bounceback month or a big failure. For the in-depth highlights of these charts, read my blog post at www.century21.ca/scott.ingram/blog. In the meantime, view the statistical trends with your own eyes with these monthly charts.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Sept
2017

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s regionally-focused information.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

3.  $27K YoY
-0.2%
 $116K MoM
+10.6%
Toronto Real Estate
Sept 2017 Quick Facts
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats” (monthly information back to January 1996), Scott Ingram
- Cooling in Houses sales since mid-April,
every month -23% to -42% YoY after then
- Despite low sales, other indicators
moved in normal seasonal patterns
- New listings, DOM, sales over asking all
trended like in prior years. MOI did rise
more than usual (after declining lot in
Aug), so good to watch in Oct
August trend away from bottom continues
⌂
 $87 YoY
+18.9%
 $69K MoM
+1.0%
- Condo market more buoyant than
houses in most stats (YoY price change,
MOI)
- Low inventory holding condo market up.
Active listings still way down ( 38% from
5-year norms)
- Sales continued  versus 2016 but only
1% lower than 5-year Sept norms

4. Detached $1,355K / Semi $935K / Row $867K
Sep vs. ‘16: $27K (2.3%)
Sep vs. ‘12: $492K (69%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 11.0%
- Typical for Aug to Sep average prices to rise
- All three house types rose in the month: Det +13.8%,
Semi +4.5%, Row +1.7%
416 Average Sold Price
(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $554K / Condo Townhouse $608K
Sep vs. '16: $98K (21.2%)
Sep vs. '12: $187K (50%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 8.5%
- Aug to Sep typically rises. Interesting to see what
October brings
- MoM +2.6%: Apt +2.6%, Townhouse +1.9%
958
1,110
1,074
1,156 1,170 1,157
1,104
1,096
1,183 1,187
1,221
1,165
1,217
1,4391,432
1,456
1,373
1,268
1,175
1,094
1,210
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
589
573
559
540 546
560
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. '16: 36.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 25%)
YTD vs. '16: 22.6%
- Apr lowest since 2009, May sales lowest since 2000,
Jun-Sep lowest since 1996 (start of monthly data). Sep
< prev. low Sep by 4%, and 27% below 22 year avg.
Sep vs. '16: 25.3% (vs. Prior 5 years: 1% )
YTD vs. '16: 7.8%
- Comparisons to 2016 are tough (was 18% vs. 2015).
Last 4 months have been within normal sales ranges.
- Unusual prices have held at above 20% YoY when
volumes down 20-30% last 3 months. Chalk it up to low
inventory (next slide).
1,889
2,102 2,066
1,320
1,162
1,508 1,532
1,393
714
624
1057
1641
1685
1594
1193
791 820
965
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,000
1,609
2,066
2,297
2,468 2,472
2,134
2,217
2,039
2,143
1,937
1,350
1254
1816
2565
2402
2272
1916
1484
1635
1524
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

6. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. '16: 66.7% (vs. Prior 5 years: 7%)
YTD vs. '16: 44%
- Listings have been back to within seasonal ranges
since April
- Houses were 34% of all 416 active listings last Sept –
this year were 47%
Sep vs. '16: 4.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 38%)
YTD vs. '16: 36%
- Active listings almost back at last year’s levels, but are
still very seasonably low – about 2,100 listings less than
2011-2015 average
1,168
1,300 1,392 1,452
1,633
1,456
1,283
1,119
1,629 1,612
1,307
599679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
2574
2026
2715
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3,491
3,718
4,028
4,177 4,249
4,041
3,608
3,134 3,111
2,791
2,203
1,3971529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7. 416 Monthly Change in Active Listings
(net change in snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. Aug avg change 2012-16: 616
- Some weird months this year (Apr, May, Aug), but
Sept within normal ranges
- Perhaps big drop from July to Aug was sellers holding
back until the fall market in hopes market improved
further?
Sep vs. Aug avg change 2012-16: 250
- Higher end of range, but that’s good as still shortage
of condo Active Listings
80
157
392
806
907
-65
-302
-548
689
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MoM Net Δ in Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
132
-86
103
602
706
220
6
-398
304
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MoM Net Δ in Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Sep vs. '16: 1.7 months (160%)
Sep vs. Prior 5 years:  0.9 months (48%)
- Highest Sept since 2012
- Aug to Sept typically rises (15 of last 22 years)
- Detached highest at 3.4 (3.5 in Mar), Semi at 1.6 (2.6),
Row at 2.2 (2.6)
Sep vs. '16: 0.4 months (28%)
Sep vs. Prior 5 years: 1.4 months (42%)
- Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so still very low historically
- 18 of last 19 months have been below 2.00
- 7 months in row < houses beats old record of 6
(happens <10% of all months since Jan 1996)
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.8 0.8 0.7
1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8
1.1
0.8 0.7
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3.5
2.3
1.9
1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7
1.4 1.5
1.3
1.1 1.0
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

9. 416 Average Days On Market
(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. '16:  8.4 days (69%)
Sep vs. Prior 5 years:  3.2 days (18%)
- Last few months falling into normal seasonal patterns
- Highest Sep since 2013 (also 20)
- Still below historical average (since Jan 1996) of 28.1
DOM (median is 26.6)
Sep vs. '16:  0.9 days (4%)
Sep vs. Prior 5 years:  9.0 days (29%)
- Fell for first time since April, despite continued low sales
- Still lower than last year – and way below average of
38 since Jan 1996
39
31
24 23
22 22 23
24
23
21 21
23
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
24
15
13
11 12
10
13
15
12 12
14
18
17
12
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10. 416 Sold Over Asking
(Sold properties at ≥101% of asking price and Sold at ≥120%, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% over asking Sep vs. '16:  35 pp (solid lines)
120% over asking Sep vs. '16:  13 pp (dashed lines)
- Two consecutive MoM increases, but same Jun-Sep
pattern as last year, just at a lot lower level
101% over asking Sep vs. '16:  0 pp (solid lines)
120% over asking Sep vs. '16:  0 pp (dashed lines)
- SOA levels have now returned to 2016 levels
40%
53%
58%
66%
68% 67%
57% 58%
63%
60%
53%
44%
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
27%
6%
10% 12%
18%
21% 19%
15% 14%
16% 15% 15%
11%
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5%
3% 3% 3%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA
10%
12%
16%
20%
24%
22% 20% 20%
24%
26% 27% 26%
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23%
0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
3%
1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA

11. 416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $48K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.3%.
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $20K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 4.9%.
19
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22 33
117
54
105
210
45
2
19 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65
84
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
YTD
$000s
$ Increases
Houses Condos
7%
17%
(3%)
9% 11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
4%
2%
12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16% 18%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
YTD
% Increases
Houses Condos

12. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 57% / Houses 42%
5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48%
10 years ago: Condos 46% / Houses 52%
20 years ago: Condos 34% / Houses 64%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume,
in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume.
Apartment
90%
Townhouse
10%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
Houses
38%
Condos
61%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
72%
Semi
21%
Row
7%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

13. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both
quantitative and qualitative trends – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market.
After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music
communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown
knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the
venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: