March and April were the dark days as far as YoY comparisons for GTA real estate numbers are concerned. There are signs things are improving.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
April
2018

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,355K / Semi $1,022K / Row $961K
Apr vs. ‘17: $210K (-14.4%)
Apr vs. '13: $474K (62%)
5 year CAGR: 10.1%
- Obviously down YoY, but gap has shrunk last two
months (-16.8% to -15.7% to -14.4%)
- Mar to Apr increase of 3.3% was right on 23 yr median
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $601K / Condo Townhouse $683K
Apr vs. ‘17: $20K (3.3%)
Apr vs. '13: $233K (62%)
5 year CAGR: 10.1%
- First time condo monthly average has reached $600K;
first time above $500K was Feb 2017, $400K was May
2014
1,218
1,4391,429
1,455
1,373
1,268
1,177
1,088
1,215
1,1831,171
1,127
1,2041,1971,205
1,245
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
590
573
559
541 546 557 564 564
539544
584
597
609
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Apr vs. '17: 29.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 32%)
YTD vs. '17: 31%
- Rolling 12 month sales of 11,799 is lowest in available
TREB data (from Jan 1996), and 7 records in a row
- Lowest April in last 23 years – by 15% (1,411 in 2000)
- Sales 29% bad but improvement on March 38%
Apr vs. '17: 27.4% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 10.7% )
YTD vs. '17: 28%
- Lowest April since 2014, and below 7 year average
- Rolling 12 month sales of 19,257 is lowest since May
2015
623 1054
1636 1680
1588
1185
786 811
956
1180 1169
676
511
723
1,021
1,193
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1254
1816
2565
2400
2271
1912
1479
1628
1518
1663
1779
1258
990
1269
1748 1742
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Apr vs. '17: 27.6% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 17%)
YTD vs. '17: 17%
- Last year it appeared people were rushing to cash in
(terminations and re-listings were problematically
distorting this stat)
- This year no sellers are rushing in; they appear to be
waiting until they hear things are better
Apr vs. '17: 20.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 19%)
YTD vs. '17: 17%
- Condo new listings for April the lowest they’ve been
since 2011
973
1459
2485
3336
4253
2846
1760
1310
2671
2359 2254
888
1077
1463
1910
2414
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1886
2096
3188
3588
4138
3385
2693
2253
2826
2645 2573
1235
1674
1885
2487
2864
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Apr vs. '17: 14.4% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 5%)
YTD vs. '17: 61%
- Higher than last 3 Aprils, but lower than every year
from 1996 to 2013 (23-year avg = 3,224)
- Far off from highs of 2003-2010 where 6 of the 8 years
were above 4,000
Apr vs. '17: 12.9% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 42%)
YTD vs. '17: 25%
- Active Listings above last year’s crazy-low levels, but
still almost 1700 less than 7 Yr Avg
- Ignoring last year, was lowest April since 2001
679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
2574
2026
2715 2742 2687
1805
1580
1800
1995
2327
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986 2907
2697
1899
1846 1982 2080
2425
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Apr vs. '17: 0.7 months (61%)
Apr vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.6 months (50%)
- Highest April since 2009 (2.3) but only slightly above
April avg since 1996 of 1.8
- Varies a lot by housing type. Attached very low:
Detached 2.3 / Semi 1.1 / Row 1.2
Apr vs. '17: 0.5 months (56%)
Apr vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.8 months (-37%)
- Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so very low historically, 25
of last 26 months have been below 2.00
- Record 14 months in row condos < houses
- 2nd lowest April ever
1.1
0.8 0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.3 2.3
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Apr vs. '17:  8.0 days (102%)
Apr vs. 7 Yr Avg:  2.9 days (22%)
- Highest March since 2013 (16)
- Still below historical Apr avg (since Jan ‘96) of 19 (and
all months’ avg of 28.0 and median of 26.6)
Apr vs. '17:  5.8 days (57%)
Apr vs. 7 Yr Avg:  7.1 days (-31%)
- 2nd lowest April in last 23 years (and a week less than
3rd place of 23 in 2010 and 2016)
- Well below historical April avg (since Jan ’96) of 30
17
11
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
18
21
25
31
23
16 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23 22 22 21
23
27
22
17 16
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Apr vs. '17:  36 pp
Month-over-month:  5 pp
- Lower than recent years – especially runaway 2017,
where April was just off of March peak
101% or more of asking Apr vs. '17:  39 pp
Month-over-month:  1 pp
- Behind crazy 2017, but SOA still ahead of 2015 and
2016
- July to December will be very interesting to compare
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
26%
28% 29%
21%
19%
32%
37%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23% 21%
23%
22%
22%
31%
34% 35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
120% or more of asking Apr vs. '17:  27 pp
Month-over-month:  3 pp
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
has quieted down after early last year, yet still
following the seasonal patterns of rising through April
120% or more of asking Apr vs. '17:  18 pp
Month-over-month:  1 pp
- This practice is back to being rare in condos – the 4
months last Feb to May stand out as a blip
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4%3%
5% 7%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%1% 2%
3% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%

11. 416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2018 compared to Dec 2017)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 17 years 3 years (Avg $48K)
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $23K)
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22 33
117
54
105
210
(38)
118
19 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65 63 71
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
$000s $ Increases
Houses Condos
17%
(3%)
9%
11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
(3%)
10%
12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16%
13% 13%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% Increases
Houses Condos

12. 416 20-year Price CAGRS
(Current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.88%; MoM change 4 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.24%; MoM change 30 bps
NEW
5.50%
7.64%
5.60%
5.97%
3.87%
3.66%
5.33% 5.32%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2016 2017 2018
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos

13. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 59% / Houses 40%
5 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49%
10 years ago: Condos 48% / Houses 51%
20 years ago: Condos 36% / Houses 62%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2017 sales transactions,
they were 59% of dollar volume (35% and 64% in 2016).
Apartment
91%
Townhouse
9%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
Houses
38%
Condos
62%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
69%
Semi
23%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

14. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate: