416 volumes have been up year-over-year for several months, but now they're getting back to 7-year norms.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Market Charts
September 2019
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,360K / Semi $1,069K / Row $988K
Sep vs. '18:  $43K (3.6%)
Sep vs. '14:  $392K (45%)
5 year CAGR:  7.7%
- Last 5 months all within +/- 2% of 2018
- Detached +1.6%, Semi +7.0%, Row +7.0%
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $637K / Condo Townhouse $699K
Sep vs. '18:  $23K (3.6%)
Sep vs. '14:  $247K (62%)
5 year CAGR:  10.1%
- Condos haven’t had negative YoY since Feb 2015 (52
straight months and 72 of last 73)
1119
1223
1184
12641282
1243
11541162
1268
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
544
584
597
610 608 613
591 590
623
609 602 602
601
618 610
640 649 645 635
620
645
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. '18:  31.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  1%)
YTD vs. '18:  13%
- Big turnaround from historically low Q1. Last 6 months
collectively +10% over last year.
- First time above 7 year average since early 2017
Sep vs. '18:  15.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  4% )
YTD vs. '18:  2%
- After stretch of 21 of 23 months being lower sales than
previous year, are now at 5 of the last 6 being higher
510
720
1016
1186
1320 1252
940
855
985
1305
981
501
479
687
972
1366
1687
1446
1228
919
1292
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
989
1267
1745 1735
1944
1808
1605 1555
1454
1679
1552
955
927
1166
1547
1835
1990
1726
1852
1605
1683
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
Sep vs. '18:  4.5% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  8%)
YTD vs. '18:  3%
- Within recent seasonal ranges, though at higher end
of range, plus above 7 Yr Avg.
Sep vs. '18:  6.9% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  30%)
YTD vs. '18:  2%
- First 6 months had higher inventory than last year, has
tightened in last couple of months
- Active Listings around 1,200 less than 7 Yr Avg
1580
1800
1995
2327
2835 2758
2506
2119
2874 2780
2434
1537
1592
1792
2118
2633
29942918
2463
2147
2744
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1846 1982 2080
2425
2923 2946 2934
2648
2909 2846
2486
1710
19602114
2427
2699
30102949
2769
2448
2707
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Sep vs. '18:  0.8 months (-27%)
Sep vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.0 months (2%)
- Right on 7 year average
Sep vs. '18:  0.4 months (20%)
Sep vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.9 months (-35%)
- 3 months in row < 2018 after first 6 months all above
- Below 2.000 40 of last 42 months
- Record 30 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total.
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.1 2.2
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.5
3.1
3.3
2.6
2.2
1.9 1.8
2.0 2.0
2.3
2.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4 1.5
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.0
1.7 1.6
1.8
2.1
1.8
1.6 1.5 1.5
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. '18:  2.7 days (14%)
Sep vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.9 days (5%)
- First time below 7-year average all year
Sep vs. '18:  2.5 days (11%)
Sep vs. 7 Yr Avg:  6.1 days (23%)
- Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and has
stayed low since
31
23
16 16 15
17
22
23
19 18
21
27
31
22
18
16 15 16
21
25
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
27
22
17 16
17 17
20
23 23
21
22
26
27
21
19
17 17
19
21 22
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Sep vs. '18:  7.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  4%)
YTD vs. '18:  8%
- Near to 7-year averages (+/- 5% for last 5 months)
- terminations and re-listings distort this stat
Sep vs. '18:  5.4% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 8%)
YTD vs. '18:  2%
- Closely following 2018 pattern (+/- 5% since Feb)
- Very low historically
1215
1376
1939
2759
3259
2575
1961
1512
2923
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
19131905
2562
2944
3359
27932780
2192
2853
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Sep vs. '18:  7 pp
Month-over-month:  13 pp
- 15 of last 16 months higher than prior year
- Full year numbers: 2015 47% / 2016 60% / 2017 49% /
2018 34% / YTD 2019 37%
101% or more of asking Sep vs. '18:  4 pp
Month-over-month:  3 pp
- Condos turned it up last 2 months to be > 2018
- Days of SOA for a condo being just for special
properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone
(27% for all 2018 sales, 27% YTD 2019)
73%
81%
78%
19%
32%
37%
41% 40%
35%
27%
25%
35%
37%
31%
23%
25%
34% 36%
43% 41%
37%
34%
29%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg
71%
74%
22%
31%
34% 34%
32%
29%
25%
21%
24% 24% 22%
16%
21%
24%
26%
31% 29% 28%
25%
25%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
120% or more of asking Sep vs. '18:  2 pp
Month-over-month:  0 pp
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
has moderated, with 2016 and the first bit of 2017
looking to be the outlier period
120% or more of asking Sep vs. '18:  0 pp
Month-over-month:  0 pp
- This is pretty dead now. Only 4 months have been >
3%, and those were all in early 2017.
45%
3%
5%
7%
9% 9%
6%
4% 3%
7% 8% 6% 5%
6%
8% 8% 8% 8% 7%
4% 4%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
20% 21%
2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1%1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

11. 416 Detached/Condo price ratio
(average price for detached divided by average price of condo apartment)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Current ratio: 2.14
Month-over-month:  0.14
- Dec and Jan was first time under 2.00 since Aug 2011
- Average since Jan 1996 = 2.13
- Median since Jan 1996 = 2.06
- Max = 3.06, Min = 1.72
Current dollar gap: $724K
Prior month dollar gap: $621K ( $103K)
Prior year dollar gap: $728K ( $4K)
2 years prior dollar gap: $810K ( $87K)
1.78
3.06
2.14
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ratio of Avg Prices: 416 Detached/416 Condo Apt

12. 416 20-year Price CAGR
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.50%; MoM change  52 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.79%; MoM change  11 bps
7.07%
8.76%
7.84%
7.40%
6.96%
7.50%
5.89%
5.74%
6.69%
7.05% 7.25%
6.79%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos

13. 416 10-year Price CAGR
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 10 years ago)
10 year House performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 8.42%; MoM change  7 bps
10 year Condo performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.45%; MoM change  2 bps
7.94%
9.48%
10.93%
8.18%
6.89%
8.70%
8.42%
5.20%
6.14%
7.04%
7.49%
8.66%
7.45%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 10 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos

14. 416 5-year Price CAGR
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5 years ago)
5 year House performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.68%; MoM change  58 bps
5 year Condo performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 10.10%; MoM change  36 bps
9.81%
13.90%
11.10%
9.35%
6.05%
8.16%
7.68%
4.97%
3.75%
10.42%
8.39%
11.26%
10.10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 5 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos
Linear (Houses)

15. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 38%
5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48%
10 years ago: Condos 49% / Houses 49%
15 years ago: Condos 43% / Houses 55%
20 years ago: Condos 39% / Houses 59%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2018 sales transactions,
they were 55% of dollar volume (38% and 59% in 2017,
35% and 64% in 2016).
Detached
69%
Semi
23%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
90%
Townhouse
10%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
Houses
41%
Condos
58%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months

16. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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